#(160612-)
1 Disease Simulation, 2 Guinea Worm, 3 Polling Fears, 4 Zika, 5 Ebola, 6 Fake Documents, 7 Hand Washing, 8 Tobacco
1. You Have Died of Dysentery is a video game reference to a message commonly encountered in Oregon Trail, an educational computer game that was developed and distributed through public schools in the 1980s and 1990s. Due to the frequent appearance of the quote during gameplay, the phrase has since become a classic catchphrase used by old school video game fans on the web. Video and role playing games have featured disease before, and there are computer simulations of disease or other biosyndemic spread, possibly even giving an indication of what a post antibiotic world would be like (without zombies). CDC once had a speaker for these types of games Plague Inc. [Screen Grab]
2, The Last Days of Guinea Worm. Guinea worm has no cure, everything was about getting people to change their behavior. Getting people to do the right things. In the short term that means stopping people who had a worm dangling from their foot or leg from entering bodies of water for that momentary relief. But to completely stop the cycle of transmission, you can't just rely on people doing the "right thing". Communities posted guards at watering holes and new laws were put into place. ¶ Public health officials stress that anti-Guinea worm measures should not be imposed by outsiders. The key thing is to engage the community. It would be a disaster for outsiders, and by that I mean people from other countries, or even people from outside the community, to come in and demand that people do one thing or another. It's crucial is to explain to the community that this parasite is coming from their drinking water and convince them that they have the power to stop it, and then let them figure out what to do. ¶ an eradication program like this based on getting people to change is far more complex than a one shot vaccination campaign. ¶ Last year, in a nod to just how close the world is to being Guinea worm free, former President Jimmy Carter declared, "I'd like the last Guinea worm to die before I do". The way things have been going, the 91 year old might just get his wish, 150823-C.2↓. Tug of War. [Photo with LifeStraw]
3. Poll Shows American Fear Natural Disasters Most. As America approaches hurricane and tornado season, a new survey of 1,122 adults shows the greatest single concern for individuals among catastrophic events is the potential of a natural disaster, such as a hurricane, tornado, flood or wildfire affecting their community. America's concern about natural disasters far surpasses worry about terrorist attacks, cyber attacks, or environmental disasters. Environmental disasters are included in biosyndemics – invasive species, contamination/pollution, species and habitat collapse/loss (deforestation, desertfication, farming), disease outbreaks, climate change (to include flood and drought) and extinctions. Survey Shows What Americans Really Fear (2015) having a much greater fear of the government, technology and pandemics than ghosts or zombies. What Are Europeans Afraid of Most (2015). Terrorism in France, unemployment in Italy and pandemics in Britain – people’s fears are wide ranging and differ country by country. Pandemic Fears Moderate, Poll Says (2005). The threat of an avian flu pandemic is just startingto hit the radar of Canadians, with six in 10 saying they are concerned about it. An Epidemic of Fear (2015). Psychologists’ research is guiding governments and health leaders in their efforts to communicate with the public during disease outbreaks. Organizations Step Up Pandemic Plans, Fear Disruptions (2009). Poll: Pandemic, Not Terrorism, Our Top Fear (2005). Be Very Afraid: The Cultural Response to Terror, Pandemics, Environmental Devastation, Nuclear Annihilation, and Other Threats (Book 2010). Polling the Polling Experts: How Accurate and Useful Are Polls These Days. [Cartoon]
↕4. Have been following the frustration about Congressional slowness in providing Zika funds, but this was fully predictable behavior long before Zika, Congress Plans Huge Break During Summer 2016, and has been a pattern for years, Congress Returning; Faces Big Work Backlog, Clashes (1987). Additionally with the fact that biodisasters are insidious, taking months if not years to appear to be a crisis, unlike the sudden appearance of geodisasters. In other words it will likely be years before there are sufficient Zika mosquitoes vectors in North America – though likely the large mosquito populations in the remote Gulf will be the first sustained transmissions, Where Will Zika Be Worst. Experts Say Damage to the Gulf Coast Could Be in the Billions, Researchers Map Mosquitoes That Transmit Zika, Dengue by County* – to seem to be a threat, Zika Has Been in Brazil Longer Than Anyone Thought. ain There is a strong possibility that Zika will not be perceived as a major problem for years, disassociated from inactions of people that could have prevented it, and providing opportunities to point out that the alarmists were wrong, getting upset about a few cases. There is also more political risk of taking action now and turning out turn out to be wrong and a waste of money, than to take action later when the danger is clear – with higher costs/lives than prevention – are viewed a money well spent**, The Political Economy of “Natural” Disasters, The Politics of Disaster, Congress Heading Toward Zika Conference 160605-4.2. If by chance people do remember something could have been prevented, it is easy enough to point to all the other public health alarms that came to nothing, to include Ebola, with the additional possibility of New Research Finds Low Risk of Zika Virus at Olympics.
4*. The Private Sector Is Stepping up to Combat the Zika Virus—Congress Should Too. Part of the battle between the legislative and executive branches of the US. Note that the map in this one differs from the one about transmission by country above. Like graphs, statistics, public statements, maps can be given a spin by not lying, but presenting in a different way that supports an a priori interpretation. In this case how (not so) bad it could be this summer vs how (very) bad it could be in a few years if there is no change in current trend. Southern Europe Risks Zika Outbreaks this Summer, and a third Official Map Finds Zika Transmitting Mosquitoes in Much of U.S. [Map]
4**. Overall the normal human behavior is to forget about a disease outbreak as something that happened and is now over, never to happen again. This is true that a specific pathogen has disappeared (at least for awhile), but disease outbreaks with pandemic potential still happen continuously, Survivors Say SARS Lesson Mustn't Be Forgotten, More than a Decade Later, SARS Offers Lessons on Ebola. This forgetting phenomena is known as disaster amnesia, earthquake amnesia, hurricane amnesia, etc, Natural Disaster Amnesia: Threats We Choose to Forget, Experts Warn That Asia Needs to Be Prepared for Another Disaster 10 Years after the Deadliest Tsunami on Record, Hurricane Free for a Decade, Florida Residents May Have Storm Amnesia. The Forgotten Plague (Video), The Return of Tuberculosis to the United States, Drug Resistant TB Spreading Fast Around the Globe.
4.1. This loss of habitat, due to human behavior, has been speculated as why several pathogens (Deforestation and Emerging Diseases, Impacts of Deforestation on Vector Borne Disease Incidence, Deforestation 'Could Trigger Disease Outbreaks, Loss of Wildlife and Deforestation Can Increase Human Disease), have begun to circulate zoonotic “spillover” diseases more widely among humans, humans being the most efficient vector of H2H transmission. Did Deforestation Contribute to Zika's Spread. Evidence is growing that deforestation causes disease outbreaks by changing animal carriers' behavior. BTW Humans are animals
5. Have observed before that once the of sexual transmission was possible with Ebola that it would be harder to control outbreaks, as has been found with HIV and other STDs. Human sexual behavior is the hardest to change. Sexual Transmission of Ebola Likely to Impact Course of Outbreaks.
5.1. Ebola Scare in Hollywood Sends Woman to Hospital in Serious Condition. Apparently not only does the biosyndemic threat of Ebola still linger, but the parademic threat of fear also does. Actually the fear of an Ebola outbreak existed long before West African Ebola, a possible example of narrative influencing behavior. How 'The Hot Zone' Got it Wrong and Other Tales of Ebola's History, 25 Years Ago, a Different Ebola Outbreak - in USA, How Sci-Fi Movies Have Predicted the Ebola Epidemic. Mysterious Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreak Stumps Disease Detectives is not Ebola but undoubtedly there will be headlines that imply it is Ebola like. There will also be a lab accident with Zika that will lead to an outrage headline. Turns out the lab accident already has happened, Researcher Infected with Zika Virus During Laboratory Accident in Pittsburgh.
6. Fake Vaccination Papers Let Yellow Fever Spread in Angola. Fake certificates of health have happened before, including during the European Death. This include modern developing nations where it is possible to create Falsified Immunization Record. Doctor Punished for Falsifying Vaccination Records, Quack. This falsification may not be based on vaccine fears, but cost and limited supply, a problem identified before the current outbreak, The World Is Running Short of Yellow Fever Vaccines—and Millions Are at Risk (2014). Yellow Fever in Angola and Beyond — The Problem of Vaccine Supply and Demand, Why Are Pharmaceutical Companies Gradually Abandoning Vaccines (2005), Vaccines Are Profitable, So What. These same issue were (and still are faced with Ebola Vaccine, Ready for Test, Sat on the Shelf, Budget Cuts Are Not Why There's No Ebola Vaccine. Angola, Yellow Fever, and Those Old Flublogia Blues.
7. The Hawthorne Effect Hinders Accurate Hand Hygiene Observation. When healthcare providers know they are being watched, they are twice as likely to comply with hand hygiene guidelines. This is in comparison to when healthcare providers do not know someone is watching, according to a new study. This phenomenon – called The Hawthorne Effect – impacts the ability to capture accurate human behavior because individuals modify their actions when they know they are being observed. This is not quite accurate. Behavior is always influenced by the social context or milieu. Being observed (shame, outside interest) or unobserved (guilt, internal moral code) is only one factor. There are also the expectations of behavior, where the behavior occurs (behavior areas, behavior groups). For example a new healthcare worker freshly indoctrinated in proper behavior at their first job is more likely to conform to the formal standards, while the same new healthcare worker with a group of coworkers at a promotion party would more likely to behave by informal rules. What Gets Measured Gets Done. Or Does it.
7.1. Observation not only influences behavior, but what is observed/perceived also influence the behavior of the observers. Forgotten Stories from the Forgotten Land of Madagascar. People respond to stories. Often very simple ones. We’re hardwired that way and sometimes, like that night, it’s good. Sometimes it’s not. Madagascar is the fourth poorest country in the world. Not first or second or even third. Fourth is possibly the worst thing to be in poorest countries rankings. Nobody remembers an also ran. Fourth isn’t really a story. ¶ Rural poverty can be dangerously easier to digest than its urban counterpart. A child with no shoes on a city street, and I saw many in the capital, Antananarivo (known locally as Tana), is poor – we feel it. But a child with no shoes in the country is often, somewhere in our minds, on holiday. That 12 year old boy you see ambling down a dirt road in a small town in Madagascar isn’t Tom Sawyer. First of all, in all likelihood, he’s 17, not 12. Almost half of the country’s children are stunted, Likely nothing in that boy’s appearance will inspire a Christmas fundraising song.
8. One of the more visible changes in health related behavior. A Brief History of Tobacco in America. Over the past 50 years, the portion of Americans who smoke dropped has dropped from 42 to 15 percent. The precipitous decline could mean the end of the fascinating story of tobacco in the United States. In a 1990 paper, R. T. Ravenholt traces the way we’ve used, and thought about, tobacco over the centuries, Tobacco's Global Death March.
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