#(160703-)
1 Greyscale, 2 Methane Clathrates, 3 Pandemic Costs, 4 Zika, 5 Anthropocene, 6 Attacks on Medical, 7 Bio Cyber, 8 Antibiotics, 9 Crisis Communication, 10 Greenpeace Modified Organism
1. Spoiler alert if you watch Game of Thrones. The Epidemiology of Greyscale. What is interesting here is the people feel a narrative is incomplete without some details of a disease, whether zombiosis, vampirism, global pandemic. Though potentially misinformative narratives these are also a potential vehicle for learning about epidemiology.
2. Beijing Finds Fresh ‘Fire Ice’ Reserves in South China Sea. This is the same methane clathrates and other gases trapped in the ocean that pose a threat to human life 151011-41.1, 141214-20↓. These ices can be disturbed and become gas in earthquakes, such as the Cascadia Subduction Zone and warming oceans Bubble Plumes off Washington, Oregon Suggest Warmer Ocean May Be Releasing Frozen Methane. This is not the fear mongering of Carbon Monox-Lies.
3. Next Flu Pandemic Could Double past Cost Estimates. Policy makers’ and public health officials’ proper reactions could hold down the total costs to U.S. GDP of an influenza outbreak. Otherwise, costs could be nearly double previous estimates. Economic impacts are one of the first to appear in a parademic, with contagious fear a very close second. This would not only be for flu but any situation where there will be walking worried, and worried well, who clog medical systems because they might be exposed, slowing access to care who actually need it. With contagious diseases medical centers also need to set up remote screening to avoid the facility itself being contaminated, which increase costs and fear. Being unprepared for medical surge beforehand also increases costs as high as 4 times as much, to include lives lost and resulting permanent chronic conditions that will require long term health care. With economic problems and fear the door then opens for medical scams, Indonesian Lawmakers Seek Seizure of Unapproved Vaccines amid Fake Drug Scare.
3.1. 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic Originated in Mexico, Researchers Discover. The 2009 swine H1N1 flu pandemic – responsible for more than 17,000 deaths worldwide – originated in pigs from a very small region in central Mexico, a research team is reporting. The scientists say their findings represent the first time that the origin of an influenza pandemic virus has been determined in such detail. Reporting already known information as something new is something that is frequently found is “science” writing, sometime the reporting as new is perpetuating misinformation or a particular interpretation (Benghazi Report Shows the Internet Is Killing Objectivity). H1N1 was first identified in San Diego CA about 15 days after it had already gone global. It was traced back to a small village in Mexico starting in 2008, eventually reached Mexico City, from there to Southern California and then world wide. Because of the previous concern and hype of a pandemic H5N1 (Is Something New Killing Poultry In Egypt) Avian flu from Asia there were already some preparation, though the planning was that early surveillance would catch it overseas, not in the US. H1N1 was a dodged bullet as the most lethal strain was not the one in widest circulation. It was an opportunity to test planning assumptions, most of the planning being wrong, while most of the lessons learned were not learned, or wrong lesson learned. The First Influenza Pandemic of the 21st Century. Analysis of 1976 Ebola Outbreak Holds Lessons Relevant Today. Meet the Boy Believed to Be 'Patient Zero', Mexican Boy Who Survived the H1N1: A Year of Glory to Ridicule. [Photo]
3.2. Uncertain Impact of Critical Biosecurity Reports. Although many lessons have been learned from Ebola and other infectious diseases, planning needs are quickly diverted when the previous threat is overshadowed by another emerging or reemerging disease, or other homeland security threat. However, without adequate prioritization, planning, and preparedness, the nation may be set for failure when the next unexpected threat presents. Part of this is due to the behavior of treating each event as separate from other biodisasters. Biodisaster synthesize with other biodisasters, geodisasters, manmade disasters. Instead of planning for a specific disease, or bioterror, conflict and forced immigration that foster and spread biodisaster, how about an all bio planning. Most biothreats require the same general methods and means of identification, surveillance, containment, control. Evidence Based Support for the All Hazards Approach to Emergency Preparedness. ¶ Report on U.S. Ebola Response Identifies Preparedness Shortfalls, US Needs Greater Preparation for next Severe Public Health Threats, Reform Needed after Failed HHS Ebola Response. Though I agree that the US and World are unprepared for acceleration or logistic growth phases of biodisasters, or even the slow exponetial growth or lag, accumulation phase, this troublesome default to “reform” appears to be more a way to fix blame that solve the larger systemic issues. Did HHS in fact fail in the response, or does the fault lie outside of HHS. They did have a public image problem fueled by political agendas and fear mongering, they are under funded for what they expected to do, which hinders performing the job, but how exactly did they fail whenOne does have to admit that they are overly confident that they can handle things, which clinically may be true, but human factor wise they clearly cannot (lab accidents, inventory loss, public relations, unifying national public health, mitigating panic). [Cartoon]
↕4. Political Pitfalls in Handling Ebola May Carry over to Zika. If the United States responds to Zika the way it did to Ebola – and early indications are that in many ways it is (Yellow Fever in Angola: Are We Repeating the Mistakes of Ebola) – the country can expect missteps brought about by a lack of health care coordination and a lot of political finger pointing. The World Can't Even Find Pocket Change to Fight Zika, Zika Vaccine Trials Could Halt Without New Funds, Zika Sex Research Begins Despite U.S. Congress Funding Impasse, Majorities Across Party Lines Support Investing More Money in Zika Research and Preventing the Virus' Spread, Senate Dems Pledge to Keep Fighting over Zika, In Puerto Rico, One Expectant Mother's Zika Nightmare, More U.S. Babies with Zika Related Birth Defects Reported by Health Agency, Zika Fears Are Growing among Women in US. ¶ Though Likelihood of Widespread Zika Outbreak in United States Low, Zika Virus a Concern for Poor Urban Areas along Gulf Coast – and likely this will be used to emphasize that the “alarmist” – (The FDA’s Abstinence Only Approach to Eating Cookie Dough Is Unrealistic and Alarmist, Nation's Leading Alarmists Excited About Bird Flu, This Time, Chicken Little Is Striking It Rich, Americans Were More Worried about Ebola than They Are about Zika* – are once again overreacting (with further cuts in funding after. This sigmoid curve is the nature of biodisasters/population growth**, starting very low and slowing building to a “sudden” acceleration after months or years. In the meantime try to explain to the few mothers of deformed babies that Zika was a minor event. 160626-9.1, 160612-4↓. [Cartoon, Cartoon, Cartoon]
* This implies that the agent (Ebola vs Zika) generated more fear. This may be true in that there were narratives and scarelines about Ebola before 2014, while Zika had no accompanying narratives. However there was fear mongering that crashed immediately after the US elections Ebola Coverage on TV News Plummeted after Midterms. There is also disaster fatigue, when one disaster that turns out not to be such a big deal is followed by another one and is met with apathy Crying Wolf: The Myths on Warning Fatigue 9↓, or media does not cover it very much because after the news surges of Flu and then Ebola, that story is over and done.
** The difference between a biodisaster curve and a population one is that a biodisaster overshoots biotic carrying (Malthusian) capacity, or the contaminate overshoots benign - therapeutic dose to toxic levels.
4.1. Rio's Forgotten Health Crisis. As Rio de Janeiro prepares to receive hundreds of thousands of tourists and athletes from over 200 countries for the Olympic Games, health authorities are working overtime to combat the spread of the Zika virus. But beyond Zika, the city hides shockingly high rates of tuberculosis, especially in its Favelas 160626-4↓. This is another consistent behavior. Biodisasters that have become normalized and mundane don’t get much attention, and likely have been killing more people for a longer duration, than new threats that are novel. This happened with Ebola when malaria containment dropped. Brazil and the Zika Virus: Symptom of a Greater Ill. An Olympic Catastrophe.
4.2. Zika Leaves Guinea-Bissau Population in Panic. This illustrates one of the weaknesses of the parademic blog. It relies on open source media. The only thing we know about the panic is that someone reported panic, but is there really panic or an eye catching headline, or is there and agenda behind the story U.S. Relations with Guinea-Bissau. One has to assess the reliability of the news source Voice of America Needs to Keep its Objective Voice and the particular reporter. It also helps to get other reports Guinea-Bissau Confirms Three Cases of Zika Virus. In this case the panic is probably over stated, but it does represent a major concern with the possibility of spread into the larger, poverty stricken, limited medical resources, unstable, conflict prone West Africa.
5. Humanity Is Killing off Species. But It’s Creating Them, Too. A new world will emerge out of the Anthropocene, shaped by the species humans create and foster as well as the ones they kill. 160626-2↓.
5.1. Not all is doom in gloom with parademic. Here is an example of a global change that did not get major resistence, was implemented and saved a protective layer from solar radiation. First Signs of Healing in the Antarctic Ozone Layer. September ozone hole has shrunk by 4 million square kilometers since 2000. This is also an opportunity to point out an editorial bias of parademic. Due to reasons given in 10↓ it is not the position of the curator that we are looking at an pending biodisaster that will wipe out humanity. No single biodisaster will be able to do that. The concern of parademic is that the cumulative impact of near concurrent multiple global scale biosyndemics, exacerbated by humans, will eventually have impact that will result in global mass extinction, if current trends continue. Even so the human species will probably find way to continue, albeit in a very changed society and world.
6. This is an topic I follow but rarely post about. Parademic is largely social science, a topic that the field of medicine is resistant against as it can potentially divert from their efforts in an already antagonistic and austere financial environment. Strides have been made in the form of cultural sensitivity but the social sciences themselves don’t help their own case 160626-10↓. An added complication is academic social science resistence to what they perceive as nefarious application of their fields by government and business, to include biosecurity, Medical Intelligence, health diplomacy; while government (public health, bioweapons) and business (medicine, medical technologies) distrust the social sciences; all sides having good reasons for their beliefs. With parademic’s orientation that human factors are critical to handle biodisaster, gaining an understanding of human factors in a biodisaster is not something that one can wait for a biodisaster to learn. In addition learning to work Interagency and between sectors of society take practice before a biodisaster. Not developing the skills to work with the various social sciences that have the expertise needed for parademic is likewise not something one should wait to develop until there is a biodisaster. Bad Intelligence, the long battle against anthropology’s collaborations with the national security state. This becomes even more problematic when working to prevent a biodisaster in conflicts, and medical facilities and personnel are attacked. Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Conflict in Syria, Syria Crisis: Typhoid and Hepatitis Spreads Around Region as Refugees Flee, The Aleppo Evil Is Making a Comeback, Syria: A Health Crisis Too Great to Ignore.
Everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth . – Joe Goldsberry
7. Example of potential parademic harm that is not related to a biodisaster but to cyber attacks that can threaten the ability of medical to respond to a biothreat. Historical Perspective on Dark Web Sale of 10 Million Health Records. Coinciding with the dark web sale of almost 10 million patient healthcare records, a report detailing the evolution of healthcare attacks over the last 10 years. Your Medical Record Is Worth More to Hackers than Your Credit Card [Cartoon, Cartoon]
8. A short quiz to find out What is Your Antibiotics IQ. I missed two questions and got a B-.
9. Pandemic Planning: Don’t Take Your Eye off the Ball. Pandemic planning seems to be a low profile area at the moment but if you think your organization is safe from a pandemic, think again. This overviews the subject and looks at what to include in your business continuity and disaster recovery plans. This article was written by the private sector for the private sector with a mass notification orientation. Mass notification for a biodisaster is a different beast, especially if one does not wish to cause undesirable parademic responses, communication being a human behavior and social dimension. The uncertainty, the slowness, the invisibility, the acceleration and collapses of propagation and waves, the long duration, the conflicting messages from other sources, the difficulty of coordinating a unified message from all sources, previous events that were hyped and then came to naught, or warning that came too late, all make mass notification a challenge. There is also the problem that there are those who want the undesirable behavior to sell medical scams (Surprising Number of Businesses Selling Unapproved Stem Cell 'Treatments' in the US), panic the public (bioterror, political maneuvering, fear mongers), increase distrust of authorities, spread rumor and conspiracy theory, and simply dated or misinformation. ¶ Methods as outlined in The Anatomy of a Good Crisis Communications Response could very well turn out to not be possible to implement, but at the same time accurate information in a disaster situation is as important as safe food, clean water, sufficient shelter and access to medical care. An alert notification in a crisis is too late. It is better to send out a health related alert once a month such as a potential measles, mumps or rubella exposure, or an imported/local Zika case and if the vector is in the area, along with where more information can be obtained. This will build trust for when it is needed. ¶ Though business related articles serve marketing purposes they should not be dismissed as mere advertising. These are indicators of perceived needs, offer solutions for problems, reflect economics that are impacted by parademic and biodisaster, and are valuable contacts for networking. Why Crisis Communication Plans Fail. 4*↑, 130224-49, 140824-22, 150726-16↓.
10. More than 100 Nobel Laureates Are Calling on Greenpeace to End its Anti- GMO Campaign. The GMO resistence is of interest as both a potential biothreat, and one that may prevent solutions of hunger. Of more interest though is how what one believes becomes who someone is, that their identity becomes tied to how one describes themselves. When something threatens who you are then there is a greater chance of resistence. This was seen during Ebola where conducting a funeral in a certain way defined who you were. Same seen for Zika where to be Catholic means not to use contraception despite the risk of a deformed baby. The Greenpeace self image is they are saving the environment and nature, GMO is unnatural/manmade/BigBiz, therefor GMO threatens the environment and nature. Australia’s New Antiscience Party, Health Australia Party Slammed as Misleading. ¶ It has also be noted that anti-vaccine can become an ideation that is part of a persons identity Why Are There So Many Reports of Autism Following Vaccination. A Mathematical Assessment, Autism - It's a Family Thing . [Meme, Photo, Poster, Poster, Cartoon, Meme, Photo, Photo]
On the other hand, ¿how can I turn my back on my faith, my people? If I try and bend that far, I'll break. On the other hand... No. There is no other hand. – Tevye
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