#(161106)
- Belief vs Medicine; 2. Global/Local; 3. Reconstructing Medicine; 4. Zika; 5. Inferno; 6. War on _____ ; 7. Fatality Management; 8. Economic Parademic; 9. DSCA ≠ Civil Support; 10. Iconic - Invasive Species; 11. Leech; 12. Biome Degradation.
-1. How the Fight Against Ebola Tested a Culture’s Traditions. A great quarrel followed the death of a pregnant Guinean woman. Mourners refused to allow a team of outsiders dressed in what looked like white space suits to bury her Ebola infected corpse. If she was to be saved from eternal wandering and reach the village of the dead, they insisted, her fetus must be removed. Impossible, the outsiders said. Her virus laden blood was far too contagious for anyone to cut into her body. ¶ The villagers would not relent. A woman buried with her fetus disturbs the world’s natural cycles – beginnings and endings among humans, animals, and plants. In the same way, it is said, mixing the seeds of last year’s harvest with this year’s complicates the fertility of the crop, as well as the fertility of women. Even if the surgery was as dangerous as the outsiders suggested, the villagers worried that the results of disrupted natural cycles could be worse. ¶ The problem was that the people handling the intervention only looked at this as a health issue; they did not try to understand the cultural aspects of the epidemic. Missed this one in 2015, but it gives the crux of parademic. The social dimensions, not limited to religion, that can hinder or facilitate the containment and control of a biodisaster. Disease outbreaks are the easiest of biodisasters to comprehend and so are the most frequent example used. Likewise conflict between religious belief and medical science are relatively easy aspect of culture to understand, as opposed to the synergy of politics, economics, language, perception, narrative, exploitation, commerce, transportation, ideation, contamination/pollution, sex, poverty, habits, technology, environmental change, evolution, law, beliefs, diversity, history, interpretation, behavior...... all in the context of a disaster that originates from that which sustains life (air, food, water, others, procreation, protection, information).
1.1. New Study Explains Factors That Influence the Timing of Infectious Disease Outbreaks. The delay between the time when a disease outbreak becomes possible and when it actually happens depends chiefly on how frequently infection is introduced to the population and how quickly the number of cases caused by a single individual increases. ¶ The tipping point is the point at which each infected individual tends to pass the infection on to more than one other person. Once that happens, the population is at risk of an outbreak. ¶ This applies the theory of critical slowing down to infectious diseases. Critical slowing down is the idea that as complex systems approach a tipping point – a threshold beyond which the system is vulnerable to collapse – they exhibit recognizable patterns, increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations*, that can alert observers that the tipping point is imminent. This would be a valuable tool to identify social systems that are likely to have parademics as a biodisaster accelerates. This was a clear pattern with WHO before Ebola, but was not recognized 5A↓.
* Have referred to this phenomena before as the 1-2-3 knockout(Search) punch. I have never found a clear example of a social collapse caused solely from a biodisaster. From what I have found is that a biodisaster such as epidemic, famine, biome degradation, contamination, can result to instability of a society, making it less able to weather other types of disasters (war, demographic change, economic, geodisaster), or that biodisasters tend to happen after a series of disasters. The fall of the Roman Empire and feudal system after the plagues may be examples.
-1.2. The Ebola Crisis and the Corresponding Public Behavior: A System Dynamics Approach. The 2014 Ebola outbreak was the deadliest in history affecting three countries in West Africa. The virus spreads through direct contact with body fluids of infected individuals, or objects that have been contaminated by an infected person. The Ebola virus is considered a behavioral disease – The interaction of several sociocultural and environmental factors during an epidemic crisis leads to behavioral responses that consequently make the crisis control a complex problem (parademic) – by USAID (How Changing Behaviors Is Helping Stop Ebola’s Spread in West Africa) and WHO (Factors That Contributed to Undetected Spread of the Ebola Virus and Impeded Rapid Containment) as the transmission mechanism is greatly influenced by the behavior of individuals, families, and communities. As a result disease transmission not only occurs in healthcare facilities, but also among family members while the person is sick and during funeral practices after death. Do You Have a Normalcy Bias. Most Likely Yes, The Role of Fear Related Behaviors in the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak, How Changing Behaviors is Helping Stop Ebola’s Spread in West Africa.
-A. Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), R is known as the contagion loop (in other words the clinical and media reporting), B the balancing feedback loop (the resulting behavior from what is perceived or information). The model is not one that could be used operationally but could be of use exploring media impacts of perception that led to a parademic.
R1: Getting infected => Number of infected
R2: Getting infected => Number of infected => Number of death => Number of unsafe funerals)
R3: Public attention towards Ebola => Fear among the population => Rate of attention growth
R4; Rate of attention growth => Demand for media coverage on Ebola => Media Coverage on Ebola
R5: Rate of attention growth => Demand for media coverage on Ebola => Media Coverage on Ebola => Misinformation => Uncertainty about Disease => Fear among the population
B1: Getting infected => Number of infected => Susceptible population
B2: Situational Awareness => Number of unsafe funerals => Getting infected => Number of infected => Number of death => Number of death reported => Perceived number of death
B3: Situational Awareness => Quarantining / Hospitalizing Rate => Getting infected => Number of infected => Number of death => Number of death reported => Perceived number of death
B4: Getting infected => Number of infected => Number of death => Number of death reported => Fear among the population => Rate of attention growth => Public attention towards Ebola => Avoidance of public space because of disease spread => Contact rate
B5: Situational Awareness => Number of unsafe funerals (Quarantining / Hospitalizing Rate) => Getting infected => Number of infected => Interventions for stopping disease => Efforts of related organizations to communicate with the public about Ebola => Knowledge about Safe Burial
B6: Situational Awareness => Number of unsafe funerals (Quarantining / Hospitalizing Rate) => Getting infected => Number of infected => Interventions for stopping disease => Efforts of related organizations to communicate with the public about Ebola => Knowledge about Quarantining
B7: Public attention towards Ebola => Issue Fatigue => Attention towards other topics
-1.3. Usually Parademic avoids the clinical aspects of biodisaster, but then the distinction between social creations and science fact is very vague. Has a New Mutation in the Ebola Virus Made it Deadlier, How Ebola Adapted to Better Infect and Kill Humans During the Last Outbreak, How Ebola Adapted to Us, Mutant Ebola May Have Caused Explosive Outbreak, Studies Say Mutation Made West Africa's Ebola Strain Deadlier, Ebola Evolved Into Deadlier Enemy During the African Epidemic, is slanting using fear producing words such as ‘mutation” (think anti-GMO 161030-11↓, What the New York Times Missed with its Big GMO Story), “Adapt to better infect”, “Kill”, “Enemy”. Zoonotic diseases that become transmittable between humans are always a mutation. While inside the human biome any microbe will adapt to be better suited to their new niche or environment Ebola and Evolution. In fact it is more likely that this evolution not only made it easier to transmit among humans, but less deadly. Otherwise the host would die too quickly to allow spread from the host to new hosts Evolution from a Virus's View. It is unlikely that microbes would be sentient enough to think, “hey these new hosts touch the dead so we should adapt to be infectious after death of the host”. This appears to be a continuation (a recycle/adaptation of narratives) of the fear mongering of a “mutated airborne” Could Ebola Become Airborne Ebola that spurred along Ebolaphobia, along with the anthropomorphic, othering and politicizing of that time. It is also the presentation of old new and being “new” A Top Scientist Worries That Ebola Has Mutated to Become More Contagious (2014) 161030-7↓ [Meme, Meme, Meme, Meme, Meme]. Keep in mind that “science” reporting is not always science reporting for a long time 2008 Science Retrospective: Science Journalists Need Some New Clichés In 2009. Headlines are to attract attention, and may differ markedly from content of an article. 161009-5*↓. ¶ The more accurate, difficult to read, boring versions that the above are base on are Ebola Virus Glycoprotein with Increased Infectivity Dominated the 2013–2016 Epidemic, Human Adaptation of Ebola Virus during the West African Outbreak.
-Quote: “All I know is just what I read in the papers, and that's an alibi for my ignorance”. – Will Rogers
-2. This strikes me as the greatest hindrance to global health. The ‘P’ Word: Hospital Ethics Committees and Palestinian National Identity. The non-universality of self-proclaimed universal values. The specificity of local ethical standards, enforced by local commissars who draw on the idea of the universal, to promote local political agendas. Working for the Public Health: Politics, Localism and Epistemologies of Practice. Politics of Public Health. [Cartoon]
-Q. “Think globally, act locally”. – https://www.britannica.com/biography/ Patrick Geddes, though it seems the application if more “think locally and make it seem one is acting globally”.
-2.1. Ebola Was Just the Beginning. A Big Epidemic Is Coming and the World must Be Ready. This has been claimed for years and has yet to happen, unless one realized that syndemics are already in progress, we are already in a series of epidemics of novel and reemerging disease, along with changing man created conditions that facilitate these. What Lies Beneath: as Earth Warms, Diseases Within Permafrost Become a Bigger Worry. Scientists are witnessing the theoretical turning into reality: infectious microbes emerging from a deep freeze. Here’s What We Could Be Doing to Stop Pandemics Like Zika and Ebola. Getting Ahead of Infectious Disease Outbreaks.
-3. This may be one way in which the complete destruction of a medical/health system is reconstructed. Chinese Medical Education Rising Unevenly from Cultural Revolution Rubble.
For scores of years after the first medical school opened in China in 1886, the country progressed in building a medical education system for its fast growing population. Then 50 years ago, it not only came to a screeching halt, but to a full reversal with the Cultural Revolution. Though the original intent was to modernize, to include supplanting Traditional Chinese Medicine with goals such as the Four Olds and Great Leap Forward, the unintended consequence was the complete opposite. ¶ Despite China's overall progress in reconstruction, two overarching peculiarities remain in the system that produces its physicians. One is the complex diversity of paths an aspiring doctor can follow to gain medical training and become a practicing doctor. The other is a more serious concern, is a near complete lack of standardized residency programs, or graduate medical education. The takeaway here is that it is not just a biodisaster knocking down an already rickety health system, or a conflict eroding an existing system, but direct human behavior and beliefs, Vaccine Culture War Myths, The Vaccine Culture War in America: Are You Ready, Vicious Vaccine Culture War Now Being Waged Against Informed, Intelligent Americans Who Seek to Protect Their Children from Deadly Side Effects, The Culture Wars: Health Care Edition, The Culture War in Healthcare Has Gone Front and Center (And the Good Side Is Winning). What 'Culture War' also called polorization, also an example of how local application can differ from and possibly hijack the larger purpose 2↑. #Book Barefoot Doctors and Western Medicine [Photo, Poster, Photo, Poster].
↕4. Miami Beach City Manager Defends City's Position Regarding Leave for Officers with Zika, to not immediately offer workers compensation to at least two police officers who have contracted the Zika virus. Find the Mosquito That Bit You, Miami Beach Tells Officers Who Got Zika at Work.
-4.1. Accurate Facebook Posts about Zika Virus Were Plentiful, Not Popular. Social media is an important source of news for many Americans, but the health stories that are most popular may also be the least accurate. About four out of five popular posts on Facebook about Zika contained accurate information. But the ones containing inaccurate information or conspiracy theories were far more popular on the social networking website. What was most disturbing to me was the websites or videos that are giving this misinformation are trying to take the focus completely away from the issue. Those inaccurate posts may lead people to disregard accurate information about Zika virus from organizations like the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO). H5N1 Comment. Nothing Is Certain, Except Death, Taxes and Conspiracies about Science. Battling Zika...and Armchair Critics with Wacky Suggestions.
-4.2. Zika Virus Prompts Increase in Unsafe Abortions in Latin America. Figures show abortions have soared in countries where Zika was prevalent, with many women seeking unsafe and illegal procedures due to strict anti-abortion laws across most of Latin America. Not new news, Abortion Pill Orders Increase in Zika Stricken Latin American Countries, and not limited to Latin America, 160821-4.1, 160814-4.1C, 160724-4 -4A, 160710-4, 160626-4.3, 160522-4 -4.2.1, 160207-4.3, 160124-2↓. What Media Are Missing about Planned Parenthood and the Controversy over Zika Funding, Pope Francis Says Contraception May Be 'Lesser of Two Evils' During Zika Virus Outbreak, Catholic Leaders: No Abortion or Contraception for Zika Virus. ¶ This behavior can lead to extreme solutions, if not actual absurdities More Polish Women Seen Seeking Abortions Abroad to bypass strict laws outlawing the practice; Anti-Abortion Poland Offers Payments for Disabled Newborns part of a policy aimed at curbing the number of abortions. CDC: Contraceptives Would Cut Zika Costs in Puerto Rico.
-4.3. This is likely to increase interest in stopping Zika, but could also be the perfect hidden disease of one that is sexually transmitted, does not have obvious ill effects, and sterilizes a population. Zika Causes Infertility, Lasting Harm to Testes in Mice, showing the virus caused lasting damage to key cells in the male reproductive system, resulting in shrunken testicles, lower levels of sex hormones and reduced fertility.
-4.4. Historically such predictions have been wrong. Worth watching to see what happens this time. Brazil Not Expecting Another Big Wave of Zika with Onset of Summer. Also this ignores that a very expensive and long lasting consequences have already happened.
-4.5. Colombia Is Hit Hard by Zika, but Not by Microcephaly. Colombia has had the second biggest outbreak, behind Brazil. So why have relatively few babies been born with brain damage. Women’s decisions may be the key. Decision’s, choices, selection among alternatives, and making no decision are all behaviors. Scientists are bewildered by Zika’s path across Latin America. The hunt is now on for the mysterious “accomplice” that made the virus so deadly in Brazil. Could it be an unwitting human action, or are others places actinically suppressing or hiding the count.
-4.5.1. Then there is always the other parademic human behavior associated with biodisaster, conspiracy theory, cherry picking filtered information to support their own agenda, and accusing others of the behaviors that they themselves do. After Terrorizing America with Zika Scaremongering, Washington Post Now Admits Zika Virus Doesn’t Cause Brain Deformities after All. Mainstream media is not merely dishonest and corrupt, but their science writers are unbelievably stupid and ill informed about nearly everything in the natural world. Today, after months of printing fear inducing “Zika terrorism” stories that scared America half to death while convincing the government to funnel billions of dollars into Zika vaccine research for Big Pharma, the Washington Post now admits it had no idea what it was talking about. ¶ But rather than admitting its own science writers were scientifically illiterate propagandists pushing quack narratives as news, the paper now blames other scientists for the gross error by publishing a headline that’s once again dishonest and deceptive: “Scientists are bewildered by Zika’s path across Latin America,” it proclaims. Idiot Who Says Zika Is a Conspiracy Still Wants You to Buy His Bug Spray. The Snopes list on Zika. [Ad, Meme, Meme, Meme]
-5. Biodefense Before Seeing Tom Hanks’ “Inferno” the film uses creative license to depict Hollywood’s version of public health emergency response, a more accurate understanding of biodefense policy and procedures can be acquired by reading a few key documents. Burning 'Inferno' Question: How Fast Can a Deadly Virus Spread. It would take weeks or a year for a pandemic to go around the globe, even a fast spreading virus. There's also an evolutionary paradox where viruses that kill people too quickly don't spread as well. If the virus makes you so sick you don't travel or people avoid you. A disease can hop anywhere by plane within a day and achive a global spread within 30 days, as demonstrated by the 2009 Flu, that does not make a lethal global pandemic. Inferno: An Infernal Misconception of Virology and Infectious Disease.
-5.1. Box Office: Why Tom Hanks' 'Inferno' Was a Domestic Disaster. This was one of a number of industry articles that speculated why the movie was not a block buster. In none of these were see any speculations that it might of failed because of Ebola and/or Zika, in other words pandemic fatigue. 'Inferno' Isn't a True Story but the New Thriller Feels All Too Real does make the point about fear being potentially worse than the disease, When Fear Becomes An Unintended Public Health Problem, The Roots of Our Ebola Fears, 'Contagion' Screenwriter: The Most Dangerous Virus Is Fear, ‘Contagion’ Screenwriter Blasts Ebola Panic as ‘Stupidity, Fear and Politics’, The Dread Factor: Why Ebola and 'Contagion' Scare Us So Much.
-5.2. Though the movie was not a popular success, it could still fuel conspiracy theory as Dan Brown’s writing formula includes conspiracy theory. In this case a variation of the UN Black Helicopters and Agenda 21/ World Depopulation, with the WHO having a secret military branch or Bioterrorism Swat Team [Photo]. Dan Brown’s Inferno, Plagues and CFR reviews the book in 2013 and presciently mentions (remember WHO’s inability to effectively respond to Ebola in 2014) the improbability of the impoverished WHO actually did have a budget large enough to finance an agency C-130 and rapid response team. In truth, the agency's rapid epidemic reaction division is bankrupt 1.1↑, Lack of Critical Slowing down Suggests That Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, Yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk, a disaster waiting to happen.
-5.3. The idea already exists of covert military and intelligence branches of health organizations, Anti-Quarantine Nurse Hickox Was Trained as Intelligence Officer by the CDC, Defiant Ebola Quarantine Nurse Was CDC Intel Operative, see Epidemic Intelligence Service for a less hysterical perspective of what EIS is, and Parademic has more information of the stir Kaci Hickox(Search) created. [Photo, Photo] 160925-10↓. ¶ One of the interesting aspect of the Ebolaphobia period that Hickox got caught in is that there were many social norms being violated – big lies, abuse of civil right, rejection of authority by other authorities, bullying and stigmatization of those that were thought could be infected – and yet very little was done directly about it. Fear of Retaliation - Why We Tend Not to Enforce Social Norms, which is a form of bystander effect or diffusion of responsiblity. [Photo, Photo]
-5.4. Part of the idea of Inferno was that is was designed to kill half of the world population, to give the remaining half a better chance of survival, Inferno, or How a Mansplainer Almost Killed Half the World . That however if a bad assumption. The social disruption caused by loss of half the world population would result in famines, allow other diseases to reemerge with a vengeance, disrupt social services such as health and sanitation, wars, crime, dangerous mega fauna preying of humans, lowered birthrate and survival of children to adulthood. The world human population loss would probably be about 95%, leaving less than 500 Million. This would be about the same world population as 400 CE, around when the Roman Empire split into two. It is likely that technology devolve to lower than that available in 400 CE, salvaging raw material from detritus of the past.
-A. A pilgrim making his way to Bagdad was overtaken on his journey by a grisly figure. "Who are you" asked the pilgrim. "I am the Plague", was the response, "and I am going to Bagdad to kill a thousand (other versions 5000) people". On his return journey the pilgrim overtook the spectre and stopping him said: "Why did you tell me that you were only going to kill a thousand people in Bagdad, whereas I found ten thousand (or 50,000) of your victims in the city". "I spoke truly," said the Plague, "I killed but one thousand (5000), the remainder died from fright".
-6. Words Matter When Talking about Alzheimer's. Using war metaphors in reference to Alzheimer’s disease should be replaced with messages of resilience against a complex, age associated condition that may not be fully defeatable. This issue of using the war(Search) metaphor in the fight against disease is common, but the concerns that it is counterproductive have appeared before. Military Metaphors in Medicine: Waging War When the ‘lesser humanity’ of illness can lead to stigma for those suffering from disease. Illness as Metaphor; how the metaphors and myths surrounding certain illnesses, especially cancer, add greatly to the suffering of patients and often inhibit them from seeking proper treatment. The Trouble With Medicine's Metaphors is that using military terms like "battle" and "fighter" to help patients conceptualize their illness can sometimes harm more than it helps. Change the Warfare Metaphors When it Comes to Illness. A Cognitive Study of War Metaphors in Five Main Areas of Everyday English: Politics, Business, Sport, Disease and Love. Does 'War on Cancer' Metaphor Cause Casualties. The War Against Ebola Must Immediately End. ¿Who first referred to the Ebola outbreak as a war? The nation has to find that individual and quarantine them before embarking on a witch hunt against those with Ebola 140914-1.9↓. [Cartoon]
-7. An update to the WHO/IFRC 2009 manual Management of Dead Bodies after Disasters: a Field Manual for First Responders is now available. Though much improved I prefer other open source publications that are more complete and less likely to cause parademic problems: Mass Fatality Management Guide for Healthcare Entities, JP 4-06 Mortuary Affairs, ATP 4-46 Contingency Fatality Operations. However even with the most care mass fatality events are already very traumatic. In such a situation and disposition of bodies is likely to offend someone, or be seen as an opportunity to exploit, leading to backlash.
-8. The Effect of Pandemic Transmission Speed on Business Continuity. Using three simplified financial models, the author elaborated the impact of pandemic transmission speed to the business continuity of organizations and advised solutions. The author explained how slower pandemic transmission speed could enable more effective cross region back up plans of organizations which could reduce financial losses. Therefore, even if the final morbidity and mortality rates remain the same, the efforts paid to delay the spread of the infectious diseases are still justified from the viewpoint of business continuity management (BCM). The conclusions and recommendations could also be applicable to non-profit organizations if the monetary figures in the financial models are replaced by the estimated social benefits.
-9. The new DOD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms continues the error of equating DSCA and Civil Support as being the same, DSCA is Stanford Act, while Civil Support is federal action that does not require states to request. Defense Support of Civil Authorities — Support provided by US Federal military forces, Department of Defense civilians, Department of Defense contract personnel, Department of Defense component assets, and National Guard forces (when the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the governors of the affected states, elects and requests to use those forces in Title 32, United States Code, status) in response to requests for assistance from civil authorities for domestic emergencies, law enforcement support, and other domestic activities, or from qualifying entities for special events. Also called DSCA. Also known as civil support. (DODD 3025.18). 151004-28, 141130-53B, 141109-32, 140817-28, 140810- 2.4C*1, 140302-35 -35.1, 140112- 36, 131215-18.2, 25.1, 130707-25 et al, 130526-34, 130407-4, 130324-56, 110227-1, 110130-1.1, 110123-3. After this much time the error is now permanent. That is not necessarily good or bad as there are advantages to not being definate, though it does leave a legal issue that may need a legal resolution at the Constitutional Law level.
-10. Mustangs: Celebrated Western Icon or Ecological Disaster. Mustangs, as the wild horses of the American West are known, represent something different for everyone. Today, tens of thousands of the animals roam pockets of the west, and love them or hate them, nobody really knows what to do with them. To ranchers, they are a menace. To animal rights activists and romantics, they represent the glory of the Old West. A potent symbol of the pioneer spirit, mustangs are synonymous with powerful cars and countless beer ads. To Federal Authorities, however, they are an expensive headache.
-11. The Lowly Leech. Bloodletting and leech therapy has a long and storied past. For thousands of years, physicians and healers have employed the bloodsucking leech to treat myriad conditions that assail the human body, the original panacea that would treat anything from “farts to fevers”. The ectoparasite was the ancient physician’s most versatile treatment and so essential that its very name, derived from the Anglo-Saxon word “loece,” refers to a physician or healer and indicates the degree to which worm and doc have long been deeply entwined. And though its used declined it is again used in modern medicine.
-12. In Iraq, the Environment Itself Has Once Again Become a Weapon of War. The is also known as scorched earth but taken to an even more extreme degree. An accelerated destruction of the environment caused by human behavior. From WWII there was Volksopfer sacrifice of the people, World War II: The Fall of Nazi Germany 15, and the Japanese Ketsu-Go (does not translate easily into English but is close to total + conclusion + epilog + no surrender) for the final defense of Japan. The question if the US should have used atomic weapons against Japan is one fraught with after the fact controversy, No Other Choice: Why Truman Dropped the Atomic Bomb on Japan. The ISIS rational of genocide and then destruction of the environment, the Nazi official policy of genocide and then destruction of the German people for it failure; The Japanese willingness to use biological weapons and other ultimate weapons New Evidence of Japan's Effort to Build Atom Bomb at the End of WWII are difficult to understand. It does however in part explain the fear generated by bioterrorism, that one is faced with an enemy that is willing to die as long as they kill everyone else.
-12.1. There is also the continued attacks on medical facilities, and use of medical facilities as shields, bases, munitions storage and Iraq Suicide Attacks: Ambulances Used in Tikrit and Samarra. WHO Condemns Reported Attacks Using Ambulances as Weapons Targeting Civilians in Tikrit and Samarra.
Comments