#(161113)
- Silk Road; 2. Smog; 3. AIDS; 4. Zika; 5. Wikipedia; 6. Confirmation Bias; 7. Changing Behavior; 8. Epidemiological Heritage; 9. End of AntiBiotics Graphic Novel; C4 CERC Corner.
-1. Yesterday's Silk Road Could Be Tomorrow's Environmental Superhighway. While China is building a gigantic modern day upgrade of the famed ancient Silk Road resplendent in global cooperation in the name of economic expansion, a group of sustainability scholars point out that the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) also could be a superhighway of environmental progress. Unlikely as economic cost considerations will trump environmental concerns. The Silk Road is more likely to continue its historical role in spread of disease, invasive species, pollution, environmental damage, hazmat spills, though marketing strategy may use “environment upgrades” (usually cost reductions that happen to help the environment) to make it more palatable without actual action specific toward the environment. This historical role will likely include tolls or taxes, augmented with higher traffic volume that is moving faster, and become a focus of conflict that could close the road down. If one includes the maritime routes of the “Silk Road”, to include the opening of the Northwest Passage, Northwest Passage Clear of Ice Again in 2016, the negative impacts could easily outweigh any benefits to the environment.
-1.1. This is known from historical records. This is not merely a repeat of once again not learning the lessons of history by non-historians because they don’t see the pertinence of history. This includes current historians being so focused on their subject of the past that they are not including the context of the present, Historians have developed a language and standard of being precise and correct, making them inaccessible to the general public. There is also an unwillingness to share information without a long process of validation which renders it no longer of value (NLOV)*, and resistence to considers, much less accept, information not produced within its community. The View from Outside the Ivory Tower, Inside the Ivory Tower, Today’s Toughest Policy Problems: How History Can Help (2010, but now there is Bretrix), Blasting Academic Silos, Jack Welch’s Approach to Breaking Down Silos Still Works. Fortunately, though of no help, academic historians don’t represent a parademic threat, except the usual misinterpretation by conspiracy theorists and exploitation with negationism and revisionism. This issue of timely relevance is not just with History but any applicable academic field.
* This was an unofficial acronym for information requirement of an operation. Normally the NLT (No Later Than) acronym is used to indicate a specific time or change in situation. NLOV (No Love) was used to unofficially chastise the sender that information provided was too late to be of use, implying lives were lost. Why Good Is Better than Perfect. [Cartoon, Poster]
-2. Having been watching this for a few days expecting protests, promises of government action, fumbling to identify and solve the problem, respiratory complications and death. What may not be reported is the possibility of exodus, especially by those who can afford to and have a place to go. There is even the possibility of violence against government or presumed sources of the smog, and counter acts of violence against those who try to shut down potential sources. Worst Smog in Decades Chokes Delhi, Dangerous Smog Has Engulfed Delhi and Pollution Levels Are Now 90 Times What's Considered Safe, Toxic Smog in World's Most Polluted City May Soon Hit Economy, Pollution to Cripple NCR Economy; Tourism to Be Hit. Smog Crisis: Hundreds Protest as Delhi Turns Into Gas Chamber, Wake up & Smell the Smog: Delhi Protests at JantarMantar, New Delhi Is the Most Polluted City on Earth Right Now, Supreme Court Will Hear PILs on Delhi Pollution, Smog on Tuesday, Delhi: Pollution, Pooja and Protests Take Toll on Traffic – Pooja means act of worship, including cremation of bodies and other practices using fire [Photo, Photo] – 'Every Breath Is an Effort': Delhi Residents Suffer amid Smog Crisis. ¶ Because smog changes with weather this will eventually become more tolerable and is pretty much been normalized anyway (at least wearing masks as protection A Quick History of Why Asians Wear Surgical Masks in Public [Photo]), so it will be forgotten until next time. The smog also hits larger geographic area than just cities, but national capitals are used as bench marks as they are assumed to have the best a nation can offer. Lessons from a London Fog So Thick it Could Kill a Cow, headline changed to A Lesson for India in a Fog So Thick It Could Kill a Cow, possibly to clarify what the article is about. [Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo]
-2.1. There is also the usual exploitation and grasping for solutions, Smog in China and India Have Given Birth to a New Industry: Bottled Air, Delhi Air Pollution: How to Shield Your Children Delhi Smog, As Delhi Chokes on Smog, Here’s How China Uses Cloud Seeding to Fight Pollution.
-2.2. Not unexpectedly, though there are comparisons with Delhi smog with Beijing smog, Beijing Continues to Suffer from Pollution, but Delhi's Air Quality Is One and a Half Times Worse, Beijing vs. Delhi: The Politics of Air Pollution. However I have found no news from the People’s Republic of China about the Delhi smog, or news about Beijings oribken for that matter. This however may be an artifact that this type of news is not available in open sources in English. The closest I could find was China Announces Emergency Olympics Smog Plan. Another potential explanation is that this is because of a state controlled pressed that does not want to bring attention to the problem, Delhi pollution: In Beijing vs Delhi, National Capital Beats China at Poorer Air Quality, though Taiwan and Hong Kong (at least for awhile longerWhat Does China’s Latest Intervention Mean for Hong Kong) have no such qualms, Delhi Shuts Schools amid Hazardous Smog, Beijing Air Pollution.
-3. Another of the historical nudges that changed the narrative about AIDS from being only the problem of an immorally impure group, to a threat to everyone, though his being Black *, promiscuous*, and a celebrity athlete*, with the LA Lakers* is still an impure group from some perspectives. Nov 7, 1991 Magic Johnson Announces He Is HIV Positive. Basketball legend Earvin "Magic" Johnson stuns the world by announcing his sudden retirement from the Los Angeles Lakers, after testing positive for HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. At the time, many Americans viewed AIDS as a gay white man's disease. 20 Years After HIV Announcement, Magic Johnson Emphasizes: “I Am Not Cured”. *Often confused with Did Wilt Chamberlain Really Sleep With 20,000 Women, 10 Infamous Womanizers.
↕4. Zika: Where We Stand Now. Florida Voters to Weigh in on GM Mosquito Releases: What Are the Issues. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) greenlighted the project in August, but local opposition has been so strong that the mosquito control board has held off on approving the release. The ballot referenda is nonbinding, but three of the five board members have said they will follow the voters’ decision. The use of democratic elections to counter evidence has a long history of being a device for subverting democracy. [Meme]
-Quote: “Never forget that everything Hitler did in Germany was legal”. – Martin Luther King Jr. The use of labeling something as Nazi is common and used by both sides of controversial issue. Mike Adams Claims Monsanto Set up “Kill GMO Supporters” Website, as Scientists, Journalists Face Death Threats. 4.1C↓. [Meme, Meme]
-A. In this case Florida Split over Genetically Modified Mosquitoes. Florida Voters Just Approved the Release of Mutant Mosquitoes to Combat Zika, but later this month the Florida Keys Mosquito Control Board could still decide to either go forward with the project or abandon it. While a majority of Keys residents voted in favor of the project, 65% of the 639 voters in Key Haven, where the trial would be conducted, voted against it. It’s unclear what the board will decide with the community most directly affected by the trial casting their ballots against it. ¶ Regardless of the outcome, the referendum raises crucial questions about who should be tasked with science based decision making. In the Keys, fear and fiction played into the local discussion as much as, if not more than, legitimate concern. This reminds one of the Pavlovian Session (Decision Making: Primitive Reward Driven Behaviors May Bias the Information People Choose to Sample), The Legacy of McCarthyism and pt1/" How 2 Pro Nazi Nobelists Attacked Einstein’s "Jewish Science", 161106-3↓.
-4.1. In terms of biodisaster the future board and current popular votes makes no difference. The trend of this and other disease vectors is already in progress, and the conditions that will facilitate further spread already exists Can the United States Cope With a Resurgence of Tropical Disease. The only impact of what decision is finally made will either continue the current pace toward acceleration(Search) [Chart cumulative D↓], or shorten the period between initiation and acceleration. Though this focuses on the biopolitics of a particular voting issue, the following parademic phenomena are echoed in other election issues at the state, national and global levels, as well as consequences at each of those levels [Bumper Sticker]. C4.1 -.2↓. 161023-4.2, 161009-4.3, 160807-4↓.
-A. Parademics (the social symptoms, response, enaberlers) because of human factors, are more unpredictable than a biodisaster (the causative agents and effects). A combination of factors will influence the decision toward rejection of GMO Mosquito field testing. With winter approaching there will be a non mosquito period 161023-4.3↓, and new cases will drop. Imported cases and asymptomatic carriers will continue and be available for next seasons vectors. The Keys have largely avoided Zika cases largely because of its previous experience with Dengue, Dengue Fever No Longer Just a Visitor to Florida Keys. Collectively this gives the perception that the hazard is under control by other means, Site of GM Mosquito Trial Uncertain after Locals Vote Against Being “Guinea Pigs”. A small but loud vocal opposition is a slim majority in the testing area (Nimby), and have created uncertainty (Florida Vote Spells Uncertain Fate for Genetically Engineered Mosquitoes), and there is always the possibility of board members losing their positions if there is a local outcry. This was in part accomplished by getting media attention, in essence free advertising that in this case has gotten international attention, Florida Vote on GM Mosquito Release, No Such Thing as Bad Publicity, Media Circus.
-B. No matter the decision it is likely there will be future protests for and against [Photo, Photo], conspiracy theory (Red Alert! Is Bill Gates’ Mosquito Mutant Spreading Disease in South America) [Meme], rumor (How a Small Florida Town Is Standing in the Way of Stopping Zika in the US, No Evidence to Support Rumors Tying Zika to Genetically Modified Mosquitoes), exploitation (7 Fake Cures for Zika That Are Spreading Online, Zika Scare Prompts Crackdown on Mosquito Repellent Ads), and critical thinking will matter less while magical thinking will matter more Survival of the Stupidest – which makes it confusing why some politicians continue to depend on rationality, fact and evidence to win elections. The differences in reaction will be based on which side is in opposition to whatever the decision is, and how well organized and practiced the side to be in opposition is before the decision. Even if the decision is made by the highest authority and is based on the most reliable information, does not mean all will abide with it or acquiesce.
-C. There is a tendency of groups with a fixed ideation to become more resistant and extreme if their goals are thwarted, and/or they achieve success by working outside social rules of conduct. If they are successful in reaching their goals they will tend to continue what achieved the success in an escalating spiral, perseveration despite evidence the method is no longer effective, creating more and more complex rationalization and logical fallacies to support the belief. Such total commitment is called “drinking the kool aid”. The possibility of how violent the opposition will be is currently unpredictable, The Violent Side of Anti-GMO, The True Story About Who Destroyed a Genetically Modified Rice Crop, Death Threats from Anti-GMO Nuts 4.Quote↑.
-D. In addition after the final board decision there will be a lull of perceived improvement (decrease of cases), followed by a higher rise in the Zika problems. This is the normal up and down wave of disease and economics [Chart distribution, Chart distribution and cumulative 4.1↑]. There will be short term and long term economic and social consequences, both good and bad, but trending toward downturn that will reach far beyond the specific area and time, A Socionomic Study of Epidemic Disease.
-E. Expect various forms of exodus from Florida, as well as the creation of larger “safety” buffers of some Florida communities (laws, self isolation, walls against what can’t be held out by a barrier). And there will be those who will refuse to flee either due to having other means of protection; are not fearful of the disease as it will not harm them or it is not real; live in a safe area; or simply have a Zika variation of hurricane fatigue and sea level rise denial [Cartoon, Meme], Coastal Cities at Risk from Rapid Sea Level Rise with Warming above Two Degree, Florida Keys Could be Lost to Rising Seas. In fact; besides making the whole GMO issue moot [Cartoon], As Florida Keys Flood, Property Worries Seep In is a more dangerous issue and may be the real issue that could possibly becoming another form of forced exodus or evacuation. These types of wicked problems tend to be perceived as ones that cannot (or will not) be solved, so a “solvable and credible” dread is substituted. This was seen during Ebolaphobia (Search), where fear of the disease was puffed up (fear mongering) to the preexisting fear of immigrants and terrorism, which appealed to racists, those who fear for job security or simply the continuance of their favorable status quo, Ebola, Race and Fear.
-F. As the dread for Zika or GMO Mosquitoes continue for a longer duration more fear is generated and there will be increased divisions, othering, stigma, quarantine, social distancing between pro and anti groups. Previously antagonistic groups will find common ground, such as GMO supporters and anti-pesticide (160904-4.3A↓), with increase of in group networking and communication, while concurrently there will be less out group communication and effort to find common ground.
-G. If there is violence or armed resistence there eventually there will have to be emergency declarations, not necessarily Zika but a different public health threat, or civil disturbance. Because of the prior experience with resistence and possible violence, this will either need to be enforced officially, or will be enforced or opposed by those who take it upon themselves as vigilance committees and vandals/saboteurs. This enforcement will include attempts to suppress competing narratives. Blaming will begin to accumulate with more false accusations (witch hunt), tending to create the very conditions the deflection to other issues and stigmatization was intended to avoid. If charted these will be similar to disease S curves and case counts of a biodisaster and not dissimilar to the progression toward ecological terrorism (not the same as using the environment as an instrument of terror 161106-12↓ but acts against those perceived as damaging the environment that need to be stopped by violence.
-H. Other social trends will continue at the same pace, or accelerate sooner – defunding public health and mosquito control, fear of GMO Florida's Scott Responds to State Cuts for Mosquito Control. These tend to be based on short term personal benefit vs long term community benefits of adaptation. Normally these are based on risk perception of what are considered unlikely consequences. Cumulatively these all make the society less stable. In a stable society the shocks of an epidemic will eventually be weathered. In a society that is unstable this can tip an emergency or disaster into a catastrophe. BTW overwhelming widespread catastrophe is not the worst case, extinction is.
-I. Last; expect coping behaviors to appear in the following weeks. Right now it is too soon to provide examples but as the shock wears of from the final decision there will be art, music, grief, blogs, scrambling to find a satisfying reason to explain behavior, satire and humor. Recycled and repurposed examples are [Cartoon, Cartoon, Sign, Card, Cartoon, Cartoon, Cartoon, Poster]. These will continue to manifest as the interrelated problems continue.
-Quote. “For myself, when I feel the hand of power lie heavy on my brow, I care but little to know who oppresses me; and I am not the more disposed to pass beneath the yoke because it is held out to me by the arms of a million of men”. – Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, the problem of tyranny by a minority, or a majority. In context of the mosquito vote both occur at the same time.
-Q2. “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary”. – H.L. Mencken, In Defense of Women. If could be argued that this quote is cherry picked from its larger context. This is true. But is this a manipulation, a half truth, or an accurate observation that is applicable today. Context is what gives meaning and part of context is the perceiver and their interpreter informing the actions.
-4.2. An Island in a Sea of Zika: How Cuba is Defeating the Feared Virus. In Cuba, the fight against mosquito borne diseases is hyper organized, intrusive, and remarkably effective. On disease trackers' epidemic maps, Cuba is an island in a sea of Zika: Virtually the entire Caribbean has experienced widespread transmission of the virus, but global health officers say there has been only "sporadic" spread in Cuba. Mosquito Guns and Heavy Fines: How Cuba Kept Zika at Bay for So Long, apparently voting about public health issues is not part of Elections in Cuba.
4.3. Was not looking but one of my google searches found Parademic. Was looking for something about GM Humans via Zika Virus or other Mosquito Zika Conspiracy Theory and humor, Mosquito Blight. This is the first time that I have seen the Parademic website appear in a search engine. Week of 160619-4.4*A, paragraph 2. Ironically this stub addresses key words and search engines. As expected and preferred for the time being, the keyword “Parademic” still does not reach this site with an internet search.
-5. Should I Trust Wikipedia with My Health. Some doctors lambaste Wikipedia for errors in its medical pages. But there are many physicians, science teachers and researchers working overtime to make the crowdsourced health content better [Logo]. Parademic uses Wikipedia and other sources that don’t meet academic standards, as well as ones that do. This is in part because Parademic is not about “accuracy” but what people believe is true – to include belief that something is true because of its source or is a current consensus. This is especially the case as the topical areas of parademic tend to be controversial, invokes strong opinion, and is constantly changing. The intent is to learn how to evaluate reliability of sources and validity of information, to determine in what ways they are reliable and what context is it valid. It is the long process of learning to make decisions based on incomplete and inconsistent information, to select what can be useful in a particular situation and how to apply it, to remain functional in conditions of intense fear and uncertainty(Search) This is Your Brain on Emergencies, and perhaps mostimportantly to figure out how to operate and be effective when the local area is hostile or apathetic. ¶ Someone who gives bleach to an autistic child as a cure and avoids vaccination as a threat may be considered unreliable as a source of information, but their behavior is information and that is what parademic tries to gain insights to, Church Leader Behind Miracle Mineral Solution Claiming Cures for Autism and Cancer. To dismiss something simply because it is immoral, wrong, not the current consensus, wrong, repugnant, distasteful, shakes ones worldview are all forms of denial. Denial can be defined as ignoring and denying potential threats and current dangers, and what is most scary of all not being able to control the narrative. Reliability of Wikipedia, Criticism of Wikipedia, Wikipedia: Reliable Sources/Flaws, Is Wikipedia Trustworthy When it Comes to Science, A Stand Against Wikipedia. Online Tools for Skeptical Fact Checking, Fighting the Water Army of Fake Reviewers, How to Identify Misinformation [Logo]. C4.1 -.2↓.
-6. Part two of an article from 161016-10↓. Confirmation Bias (Part Two) How to Overcome Your Own Pre Existing Beliefs. Confirmation bias is the universal tendency of human beings to hang onto what they already believe in the face of evidence to the contrary. ¶ I have plenty of trouble making myself read articles I know I’m going to disagree with – and I’ve pretty much given up on making myself read them with an open mind. ¶ What counts is knowing that confirmation bias significantly distorts how we process information; knowing when it’s important to find a less biased way to check out whether we’re actually right or not; and knowing some ways to help overcome our confirmation bias when we have decided we should.
-7. Parents Are Insisting on Doctors Who Insist on Vaccinations. The backlash against the anti-vaccine movement is gaining strength. Probably overly optimistic based on a temporary blip in the data that is limited in time and geography, but it is good to have hope that a negative cultural trend will be redirected to something better. Unfortunately it usually takes a disaster, or in this case a self inflicted biodisaster, to start sufficient numbers to change their behavior. Despite Progress, Measles Kills 400 Children a Day is apparently not a disaster. Growing Vaccine Resistance in Texas: A Policy Opportunity to Involve Doctors and Protect Children. Forty Young Irish Girls Will Die of Cervical Cancer as a Result of Falling HPV Vaccine Rates. There are however some indications of acceptance Flu Shots Cause Chaos in Kotka – Local Health Centre Overflowing with Clients, though Finland is a poor example as Vaccination Coverage among Young Children Is High in Finland, accompanied with pseudoscience attempts at promoting anti-vaccination, Autism: A Recent Serious Rise in Finland.
-8. This is a similar concept to parademic. Smallpox and the Epidemiological Heritage of Modern Japan: Towards a Total History. This article examines one of the long term structural forces that contributed to the making of public health in Modern Japan. My overall argument is that the history of public health should be conceived as a total history, encompassing not just political, administrative, and scientific factors but also natural, social, and economic factors. Smallpox Demon. Colorful 19th Century Japanese Woodblock Prints Depict the Fight Against Contagion. Demonic Affliction or Contagious Disease. Changing Perceptions of Smallpox
in the Late Edo Period. If one does some digging about the smallpox epidemic in Japan from 735 to 736 (Nara Period) one can see who it influenced factional infighting of the Imperial family and the spread of Buddhism in Japan, both of which are important to understanding modern Japanese culture.
-9. Dark New Comic Book Explores a World Without Antibiotics. In Surgeon X, a vigilante doctor tries to save lives in a near future dystopia where millions are dying of simple infections. Science Fiction is known for making stories based on social and technological trends to what will it be like if. There have been many articles about the fact that antibiotics are becoming increasingly ineffective against “super bugs”(Search) A 'Slow Catastrophe' Unfolds as the Golden Age of Antibiotics Comes to an End, the Superbug That Doctors Have Been Dreading Just Reached the U.S.; the concurrent leaning to the left of England Europe's Right Wing Euroskeptics Laud Brexit Decision; and the increasing disparity in access to medical care Health Gap Between Urban Rich and Poor Getting Worse; so such a story line is to be expected that will appeal to a generation that will have to live with the consequences of both. The Medical Haves and Have Nots – Surgeon X. [Poster]
↕C4. Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Corner [Logo]. Nothing this week.
- C4.1. What to Say When a Pandemic Looks Imminent. The lowest hanging fruit in crisis communication is improving metamessaging. The key strategies here are counterintuitive and uncomfortable, individually and organizationally. But they are learnable. ¶ Dividing the planning time in half. Half on pre pandemic communication (what to say now about a possible future pandemic). Half on pandemic communication (what to say when it looks imminent and when it arrives). Do the pandemic half first, and save the pre pandemic half after. Focusing initially on what to say about a possible future pandemic produce pretty wimpy messages – over-reassuring, emotionally empty, for the record messages. But starting with what needs to be said when the virus hits the fan turns the pre pandemic communication task with a vastly different attitude. What can we tell people way in advance that might help prepare them for the horrific things we’ll have to tell them if and when a pandemic actually happens. ¶ The best way to make your pre crisis communications more candid, more attention getting , and more realistic is to spend some time planning your crisis communications. Then go back and ask yourself what changes in your pre crisis messaging would pay dividends if the crisis were ever to materialize. How to Steward Medical Countermeasures and Public Trust in an Emergency, a Communication Casebook for Fda and its Public Health Partners, Federal Law Gags FDA on Recall as Vaccination Window Closes. 5↑.
- C4.2. How We Decide What to Say in Emergencies. 4.1 et al, 5↑.
- Trust: Will people trust the information. Who is the best source to put the information out.
- Information: What information is necessary, and how will people find it. How much is enough, or too much.
- Motivation: How relevant is the information is to the people we’re trying to reach.
- Environment: What are the conditions that surround and affect the audience.
- Capacity: What is people’s ability to act on the information. Are there barriers.
- Perception: What will the audience think about the information. What will inspire them to act on it.
- Response: How will people respond. What can we do to stay engaged with them and give them support as they take action.
- If not noticed before the reader who compares what is excerpted in Parademic and the original will see that question marks are often times left out. Though not the only reason this is usually done because these are not questions but statements. A question mark weakens a statement, gives a statement a more benign appearance. Questions are a method to lead to a desired interpretation of information and therefore the conclusion drawn. Counter intuitively statements engage critical thinking more than a question, unless the statement or question is phrased to support a priori bias. What’s the Point of the Socratic Method, Anyway.
- C4.2. #Document. How to Steward Medical Countermeasures and Public Trust in an Emergency. How officials convey information about medical countermeasures (MCMs) will affect uptake, compliance, and ultimately survival in the aftermath of a natural disease emergency or a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) attack. Moreover, effective communication regarding MCMs has the potential to strengthen psychological resilience as well as engender public trust in science, government, and public health. The purpose of this casebook is to provide FDA and other officials who deliver public health information with “real world” inspired opportunities for reflective learning on the principles of effective MCM communication and on the wider contexts that influence the development, delivery, and consumption of accurate, timely, and meaningful MCM information in an emergency. The examples provided are those of MCM communication failures which were also focused on development, delivery, accurate, timely and meaningful MCM information. These have all been demonstrated as being ineffective against anti-vax, anti-GMO, anti-medical science. The MCM communication needs to be provided before the emergency and must counter the constant barrage of anti MCM information among a population that may not even look for, much less believe what they accept already. This is especially moot if official policy is anti-
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