Parademic Notes Week Ending 170101

#(170101)

1. Environmares; 2. Ebola Vaccine; 3. Quarantine; 4. Zika; 5. Behavior Models; 6. Smog; 7. Gene Drive; 8. History of Quack; 9. Certainty and Doubt; 10. Reporting Outbreaks; 11. Hoaxy; 12. Pandemic Game. 13. Return Disaster; 14. Anomalous Number of Stubs; C. Communications.

-1. Five Horrorists: Sociologist Tim Delaney Discusses Society and Environment. The five horrorists that you discuss in your article The Five Horrorists are attributed, beside others, to social factors. Societal evolution over centuries has increased the risk of environmental disasters. ¶ "Enviromare" as an environmentally produced nightmare that causes great harm to humanity (parademic defines this a biosphere disaster). The term "nightmare" is used to highlight the dire consequences of humanity's attack on the environment. When people finally wake up to the problems facing our environment, it may be too late to do anything but scream. Enviromares are one of the "Five Horrorists" that I collectively refer to as the "destroyers of humanity" specifically, and the environment in general. ¶ The "five horrorists" are the destroyers of life. War, famine, pestilence, disease, and enviromares. This concept is an updated version of the "Four Horsemen" concept utilized by Thomas Malthus when he claimed that forces of nature would keep the population in check. [Art]

-2. Ebola Vaccine Proves 100 Percent Effective in Guinea Trial, We Finally Have an Effective Ebola Vaccine. The War on the Disease Is about to Change, Ebola Vaccine Is Safe and Effective, Scientists Declare after Trials, is good news, but the expected Anti-vax and Ebola Conspiracy Theories: Same as it Ever Was, Anti-Vaxxers’ Dangerous New Ebola Obsession: the Last Thing We Need Are Conspiracy Theories, The Great Ebola Hoax, that existed before this Ebola vaccine have primed the pump for continued resistence to vaccination.

            2.1. Antivax counter messages or spins tend to be within a day or two of an announcement that opposes their narrative. The rapid response is usually based on a recycle of previous messages. In this case the holiday season may have interfered, or they are biding their time for “vaccine injuries” to appear, or rumors such as “mass sterilization”. It is also possible that the mainstream communications about the development of the Ebola vaccine were more frequent, transparent and accessible, neutralizing antivax usual rhetoric. This opens the possibility that anti-vax forced mainstream medicine to create safe cures. There is also the factor that Canada's Reputation Takes Top Spot in International Survey, and given the Canadian origins of the vaccine there is a risk of backlash from attacking the vaccine. Other conspiracy theories may have taken precedence – Alex Jones Pushes Conspiracy That Carrie Fisher Could've Been Murdered by a 'Star Killer', based on Further Discussion of the 2016 Apparent Plethora of Celebrity Death. ¶ Another story that I fully expected anti-vax to quickly respond to was Bill Gates: We Are Vulnerable to Flu Epidemic. Usually anti-vax trolls target Bill Gates [Meme, Meme, Meme], at the very least claim it is the vaccines that will cause the epidemic. The Politicsof Immunity. Immunity, Biopolitics and Pandemics. Locating Purity within Corruption Rumors: Narratives of HPV Vaccination Refusal in a Peri Urban Community of Southern Romania. [Meme, Meme]

            -2.2. An example of a watch for item. Seven Cases of Measles Reported in L.A. County. Outbreaks are usually not reported in Parademic, but are watched to see if anything parademic related develops. In this case information is not provided about: location; if the cluster is connected by same school, family, gathering, antivax beliefs; if vaccinated; if they were certified as being vaccinated when they were not; age, if imported or local. ¶ This lack of information may be due to the continued confusion that results in overzealous application of HIPAA, hindering people’s ability to get information to protect themselves and assess their own risk, potentially making 10 Million people worried, if they live in LA country or have visited in the last three weeks – the period when people are infectious but asymptomatic. ¶ Measles Outbreak Strikes Again In Los Angeles, is a relatively straight forward given that it was from ield   HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breitbart_News" Breitbart News which is considered a very slanted (xenophobic, misogynic, anti-government), source of information. It is not unusual for conspiracy theory type news sources to mix in more neutral and factual news as it helps build overall credibility and avoids a blanket condemnation. They also published this before the Jewish connection (A↓) was known. Its editorial slant tends to be pro Zionist.

            -A. Got answers before expected. Thought that more information would be avaialble after Chanukah (Hanukkah) is over at sunset on Jan 1. Being a bit familiar with Orthodox Judiams in LA and other LA groups that would likely be vulnerable to imported measles, the Jewish Community [Map]. Orthodox Judaism communities have been the center of measles outbreaks before. These communities tend to be self isolated, suspicious of gentiles (historically for good reason), and have their own doctors and schools. One can see who this could happen and the need for sensitivity on handling the situation [Photo]. Investigation Into LA Measles Outbreak. Measles Outbreak in Los Angeles Jewish Community. Measles Breaks Out in SoCal; Santa Barbara Case Confirmed. As Measles Outbreak Worsens in California, a Look at Jewish Schools' Immunization Rates Reveals Many Flaws (2015), Low Vaccination Rates at Jewish Schools in CA (2015). What Does Jewish Law Say about Vaccination. Measles Vaccine Developer Warns Jewish Anti-Vaxxers (2013). The details will probably not be made public, but most likely this will be of imported origin, a single orthodox school (there are about 30 in Los Angeles) with administration involved in the falsification, a single orthodox doctor writing false vaccine certifications associated with either the school or family, and most of the first cases will be predominately one gender, probably male [Photo].Actors Draw Med School Students into Caregiver Role.

            -2.3. SB277_(Search) came into effect July 1, 2016, What Schools and Parents Need to Know about the New Vaccination Law. It will be interesting to see what the origin of these cases are, if legal action will be taken if these violate the law, and how this will play out under a new federal administration that may be antivax* [Tweet, Tweet, Tweet, Tweet]*. In any case there are the continued anti-vax fake news 11.1↓, Autism Rates In California Skyrocket Following Mandatory Vaccine Bill, Autism Rates in California Schools Jumped as Much as 17% among Kindergartners since Mandatory Vaccine Bill Was Signed, Witch Hunt Launched Against California Doctor Who Provided Vaccine Exemptions. California Vaccination Rates Soar with Drone Delivered Vaccines. How Fake News Goes Viral: A Case Study.

            -*. Before actual action and being sworn in, this is speculation, not fact. An argument can be made that some tweets are either from him, his tweet staff  Who Writes Trump’s Tweets. Machine Learning Identifies The Likely Culprit, or are fabrications Trump Tweets: Real or Fake, Fake News Alert: Bloomberg Editor Creates Libelous Trump Tweet out of Thin Air. From the parademic perspective misinformation can impact on human health behavior and decisions. It does not matter if these are from a specific person, fake or real. If distributed further and retweeted again and again, the potentially dangerous information spreads. This can support beliefs that vaccines are a health threat, or that The Trump Administration Is Shaping up to Be a Public Health Disaster.

-3. Proposed CDC Quarantine Regulations Risk Damaging Public Health. When government imposes movement restrictions in a manner that respects scientific evidence and upholds constitutional rights, these measures can in theory be effective at curbing the spread of disease. Yet when the government institutes these measures without regard for scientific evidence and individual rights, public health suffers. The Ebola quarantines imposed in 2014 demonstrate the risk. Although decades of study revealed that Ebola cannot be transmitted unless an individual is symptomatic, fear and the political pressures of an election season led states to quarantine_(Search) asymptomatic individuals for weeks without justification. The CDC’s New Quarantine Rule Could Violate Civil Liberties. Fear, Politics, and Ebola: How Quarantines Hurt the Fight Against Ebola and Violate the Constitution. The Deadly Politicization of Ebola. Politicizing the Pandemic. Cured Ebola Doc Sneezes at NYC Press Conference. Kaci Hickox_(Search). [Meme, Meme, Cartoon, Cartoon].

↕4. A Zika Vaccine, but for Whom. The race for a Zika vaccine, one of the most pressing priorities in global health, is at full throttle. More than a dozen companies and government institutions are working to unlock the secrets of the virus, and a vaccine could be available as early as 2018. But once available will those who should have it get it. Zika Virus and Microcephaly: Antivaccine Warriors Say It’s Vaccines That Did It. Could a Zika Vaccine Break the Vaccine Stalemate. My guess is no. Too much invested in anti-vax to change, unless a way is found where anti-vax and pro vax can both win.

            -4.1. In the meantime How Dangerous Is Zika for Babies, Really. Two studies published earlier this month estimated the risk that a baby will be born with microcephaly – a condition that is characterized by a very small head and severe brain damage – when a woman is infected during the first or second trimester of her pregnancy. Both studies came up with about the same risk: 3 to 4%. Besides the fact that there has not been a longitudinal study to determine if there are long term neurological or other consequences and effects,what level of risk is acceptable. ¶ For a manufacturer is it cost effective to make a vaccine that only pregnant people (Zika is sexually transmitted, sex being the only known cause of pregnancy). In the US this constitute about 4% of women or 6.3 million (doses) every 40 weeks/10 months, and only a small percentage of pregnant women (so far) are infected with Zika. About 10 to 20 percent of known pregnancies end in miscarriage more than 80 percent of these losses happen in the first 12weeks, while 30 to 50 percent of fertilized eggs are lost, and non-Zika birth defects affect one in every 33 babies (about 3% of all babies). There are no statistics of abortion of a fetus that is handicapped but estimates are that 80% of Downs Syndrome pregnancies are terminated. ¶ From the big picture perspective this is not worth the effort. From the nuclear family perspective this is 100% worth the effort In Puerto Rico, A Woman Infected With Zika Prays For A Healthy Baby and even if healthy at birth it may be years before it is certain there is not neurological damage. On the other hand there are those who avoid MMR vaccine because of the zero correlation with autism, may still choose to not take the protective vaccine. Microcephaly During Pregnancy, you will need to scroll down to this item. ¶ ∩ S Korea Shuts Website Mapping Women of Childbearing Age is not related to Zika but would have Zika implications.

-5. Still few and far between but there are more clinical studies that acknowledge that human behavior is a factor in controlling outbreaks. Behavioural Change Models for Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review (2010– 2015). Infectious diseases can have a large impact on society as they can negatively affect, among others, morbidity, mortality, unemployment and inequality. As a result, prevention and control of infectious diseases are important for public health and welfare. The main objective of infectious disease transmission models is to inform and guide policy makers to prepare for and respond to (re)emerging infectious diseases, particularly when sufficient information from controlled experiments is lacking. However, the impact of infectious disease transmission and policy interventions are subject to hosts' behaviour. Therefore, there is an interest to incorporate behaviour change in response to disease-related information into models for infectious disease transmission. The Behavioural Immune System and the Psychology of Human Sociality (2011). Incorporating Individual Health Protective Decisions into Disease Transmission Models: A Mathematical Framework (2011). PublicPerceptions, Anxiety, and Behaviour Change in Relation to the Swine Flu Outbreak (2009). Early Assessment of Anxiety and Behavioral Response to Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A(H1N1) (2009). Vaccinating to Help Ourselves and Others (2011). Nine Challenges in Incorporating the Dynamics of Behaviour in Infectious Diseases Models (2014). “Wait and See” Vaccinating Behaviour During a Pandemic: a Game Theoretic Analysis (2011). Erratic Flu Vaccination Emerges from Short Sighted Behavior in Contact Networks (2011). Coupling Infectious Diseases, Human Preventive Behavior, and Networks – a Conceptual Framework for Epidemic Modeling (2012). *14.1↓.

-6. Continuing 161225-5↓: Despite Frigid Weather, Mongolians Protest Worsening Smog, World’s Worst Air Has Mongolians Seeing Red, Planning Action, China Holds Lawyers, Threatens Activist Amid Mongolian Pollution Protest. Smog Returns to North China. China’s Smog Affects South Korea, Too  (2013). Air Pollution in China Is Spreading Across the Pacific to the U.S. (2014). Dust and Smog in Northeast China (2006). [Photo, ] This illustrates three characteristics of biodisasters. 1) The biodisaster agent does not respected international borders, no matters how high the wall and other security [Map]; 2) That biodisasters have long histories that tend to get worse the longer recognition and action are avoided [Map] 3) that biodisasters can become dormant, hide, or normalized as they way things are.

-7. The UN Just Gave Scientists the Green Light to Mess with Natural Selection. Of all the potentially apocalyptic technologies scientists have come up with in recent years, the gene drive is easily one of the most terrifying. A gene drive is a tool that allows scientists to use genetic engineering to override natural selection during reproduction. This is a variation of anti-GMO, anti- pathogen experimentation, an update of anti-evolution. What makes this of parademic interest is the combounding (compounding + combining) with anti UN/WHO/Agenda 21 confabulation beliefs that could hinder use of the technology to mitigate biodisaster. ¶ This is a legitimate fear (The Consequences of Fear) about what the implications are for humanss24  that deserves legitimate discussion. Unfortunately this is also susceptible to spin and fear mongering that can be hijacked for political gain. Rewriting the Code of Life. Unexpected Risks Found In Editing Genes To Prevent Inherited Disorders. O Brave New World, That Has Such People in it. #Book Germ Wars: The Politics of Microbes and America's Landscape of Fear. [Cartoon, Cartoon]

            -7.1. Just a speculation but a common thread among all of these is a fear of mutation, possibly a result of the use of the trope in Science Fiction Films and Cold War Anxiety, The Nuclear Monsters That Terrorized the 1950s, Towards a Structure of Feeling: Abjection and Allegories of Disease in Science Fiction ‘Mutation’ Films. Irrational fear of mutation/deformity/ handicap does not have an official medical term A Mutant Origin Story, Mums Against Meme Trolls. ¶ Bioweapons (terrorism) has become Worse than Nuclear Threat. CRISPR in China, will a biomedical duel between China and the United States improve gene editing outcomes [Photo]. Threats Old and New: the Best of Our Bio and Chemical Weapons Coverage in 2016, Mutant Ebola Behind Devastating Epidemic, Ebola Outbreak: Virus Mutating, Scientists Warn (2015), Laboratory Based Flu Evolution – Dangerous or Necessary (2012, Gain of Function_(Search)), "Zombie Virus" Possible via Rabies/Flu Hybrid (2010), Will Vaccines Fuel Killer Flu Mutation (2009), More Fears about China (2007), Flu in Wild Birds Sparks Fears of Mutating Virus (2005). #Book Viruses, DNA Cages, and Tigers, Oh My. A Review of Tiger Tiger [Cover].

            -7.2. ∩* Sending a Sundial to Mars - Bill Nye (Video). Very few of us have heard of analemma, but we all depend on it [Photo]. This is not parademic, though some act as if science is a form of disaster. It is however an analogy for a parademic issue of ignorance. Human beings – even those training in biological science – don’t fully understand our time or space in the biosphere. Are we an apex predator of evolution; A separate part of a vastly larger whole, the sum of parts that are not human but when gathered together make human (human being more than the human body); A special creation apart from the biosphere. No wonder we create biodisasters, we blindly rush around changing an intricate system that we depend on to live, but have a very limited understanding of. But then how do we understand this system unless we explore, make mistakes, test heuristics. Do we do nothing to be safe and content with our geologically brief time as a species, or risk serendipity and synergy for the little epiphanies to direct an unknowable fate as a species. 

            * ∩ is an indicator that the stub is not a direct example of parademic, but a comparable analogue. This reasoning by analogy is useful as long as one understands that this method can be completely wrong, needing to be constantly evaluated as understanding improves. Reasoning by analogy is probably the most common form or reasoning, but is not recognized as such much less reevaluated overtime for invalid assumptions.

            -7.3. A ubiquitous medical instrument that few of us are aware of its technological sophistication (it’s far more than a tube) or how recent this serendipitous invention is. The first rudimentary form of the stethoscope was in 1861, some 270 years after the 1590's invention of the rudimentary microscope, though the microscope’s potential medical application was not  recognized for another 30 years 161030-1↓. How the Stethoscope Was Invented (Video) [Photo, auscultation of megalo mastoid]. 4 Great Medical Discoveries That Were Purely Accidental.

-8. Early dental quackery, showmanship over reality. Today’s quacks are not so different. A Brief History of America's Most Outrageous Dentist. Having a tooth pulled in the early 1900s was anything but awful. You’d climb up into the back of a traveling caravan, surrounded by a booming brass band, sparkling costumed women, and next to a bucket of pulled teeth carried by a dapper gentleman with a goatee. In time with the band's cheerful tune, out would come your tooth, guaranteed to be a painless – and even entertaining – extraction. Well, not quite. Victims of this ruse, run by the famed dentist Painless Parker and his Dental Circus, often left the appointment hoarse from their screams of pain. [Photo]

-9. One of the paradoxes that one encounters constantly in parademic is the relation between certainty and doubt; that they are the same, that one cannot exist without the other, that the presence of one negates the other, that they are separate and inseparable. Science is about being certain and so constantly doubting, while certainty makes one blind to impossibilities and doubts. Both indicate that some factor, contingency, possibility has been missed. In biodisaster we observe certainty about the reality of the cause and argue if the perception is correct. At the same time we can observe hesitancy about the reality of proven evidence and its interpretation. The conditions of uncertainty (doubt) in a biodisaster lead to irrational behavior, conditions of certainty (no doubt) likewise lead to irrational behavior in the face of biodisaster. Parademic would then be rational behavior* in the biodisaster context by doubting what was certain, and certain about what was doubted, except one no longer knows which is which. ¶ Have yet to find a good article on this, or a way to express this concept clearly as it applies to parademic, but then maybe the ineffable quality is the best way to express it. Using AP English Language and Composition 2012 Scoring Guidelines (2^nd Version) my own evaluation of Parademic stubs as mini essays is a 2, but taken as a whole of entries it constitutes a 9. Maybe this is why the use of ? (doubt) and ! (certainty) are avoided in parademic stubs. There is also frequent use of quotes and facts that people know to be true are actually incorrect Einstein on Misattribution: ‘I Probably Didn’t Say That’, 12 Famous Quotes That Always Get Misattributed, [Meme, Meme, Meme].  On Doubt vs. Certainty. Doubt vs. Certainty. Doubt and Certainty. The Sound of Certainty…and Doubt. [Quote, Quote, Quote, Quote]

            -*Quote. “An abnormal reaction to an abnormal situation is normal behavior”. – Viktor E. Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning_(Search)

            -9.1. Antibiotic Resistance and the Biology of History. Beginning in the 1940s, mass production of antibiotics involved the industrial scale growth of microorganisms to harvest their metabolic products. Unfortunately, the use of antibiotics selects for resistance at answering scale. The turn to the study of antibiotic resistance in microbiology and medicine is examined, focusing on the realization that individual therapies targeted at single pathogens in individual bodies are environmental events affecting bacterial evolution far beyond bodies. In turning to biological manifestations of antibiotic use, sciences fathom material outcomes of their own previous concepts. Archival work with stored soil and clinical samples produces a record described here as ‘the biology of history’: the physical registration of human history in bacterial life. At one time we were certain we could not fight nature, then we were certain we could not only win but create a paradise, now we are not so certain that we know what nature, winning, and paradise are.

-10. How Not to Write a "Bird Flu" Story. The report, North Korea Issues Guidelines to Prevent Spread of Bird Flu, is confused and confusing. ¶ NKNews appears to cover North Korean media, and not in a friendly way. The real story here is North Korea's chronic failure to report promptly and accurately on its disease outbreaks of all kinds. 161218-2↓. This is an example of type of reporting one will get during biodisaster, all in one article. This is why Parademic insist on writing stubs in a manner that would get a failing grade in a class on writing or journalism, the reality is that biodisaster will be confused and confusing. Single articles tend to be internally consistent and edited for “errors”. A mass of media articles however will be inconsistent with each other, and operational in house messages are even worse, unless one is in an echo chamber. If information is consistent and well written (same style, format, error free, leaves no questions), then one is not getting all the information, and/or highly biased information.

-11. The spread of conspiracy theory, rumor, pseudoscience, scams, false narratives are a major issue in parademic and crisis communication C↓. Tool to Understand Spread of Fake News Launched to reduce harmful impact of news hoaxes in society.  The tool, called Hoaxy, visualizes how claims in the news – and fact checks of those claims – spread online through social networks.

            -11.1. Ran the stories from 2.2↑ through Hoaxy search and visualization function. Autism Rates In California Skyrocket Following Mandatory Vaccine Bill, Autism Rates in California Schools Jumped as Much as 17% among Kindergartners since Mandatory Vaccine Bill Was Signed (not in Hoaxy database as of Dec 30),  Witch Hunt Launched Against California Doctor Who Provided Vaccine Exemptions. This highlights the same problems as other fact checking. Credible countering is smaller than spread of misinformation and usually much later. No data of how many believe the misinformation. People who believe misinformation is fact tend not to look for other perspectives or fact checking. The exception of anti-vax not checking other sources are those who originate false narrative. They want to keep track of counter narratives so that they can attack those or spin toward their audience on the off chance one may see the factual counter narratives. ¶ The source of statistical misinformation is not identified, though in this case it is a recycle of one of the usual anti-vax themes. The source maybe based on New Study Finds Link Between Child Vaccination and Autism – CENSORED (found in Hoaxy, along with a refutation Study Alleging a Connection Between Vaccines and Autism 'Unpublished' by Journal). This false story has credibility being written by a M.D., heavy use of SLA_(Search), and a questionable data set of home schooled children which tends to skew toward autistic children, Considering Homeschooling Your Child on the Autism Spectrum (not in Hoaxy). This could also be a typo from an article that did not claim SB 277 as the cause, or maybe adding 10% just sounded better, Autism Rates in California Public Schools Jumped 7 Percent in 2016 (not in Hoaxy). Still Hoaxey is a useful research tool for parademic.

            -11.2.  ∩ One of the anticipated problems of a parademic is a shortage of a critical item, though what will become a critical shortage is not easy to determine. Part of shortages are based on hoarding for profit, or to make sure one has enough for onself, or a conspiracy narrative. Though not directly a parademic example – though some people believe that they must arm themselves against a biodisaster, or government depopulation and is trying to take away guns by limiting the production of ammo – the shortage of 22 ammunition is an example of a narrative that influences behavior*. Gun Ammo: The New Cash (2014), Sometimes There’s a Perfectly Logical Reason for Hoarding Ammo (2015),  22LR Ammo Market at a Tipping Point (2015), Ammunition as Currency, Doomsday Preppers Made .22 Ammo Hard to Find, Obama to Ban Ammo Through Executive Action by Labeling Bullets “Cop Killers”\fs24fs24 , No ‘Back Door’ Gun Control. This 22 narrative is also a self fulfilling narrative for a priori beliefs. If the rumor starts that 22 ammo will be the new currency, or that government will be preventing the making of 22 ammo then there will be people who will hoard it, this will increase demand, manufacturers will supply the demand and raise the price, stores will not stock the ammo as the profit margin is too small, people can’t get the ammo and have proof of the belief they already held. ¶ This is comparable to anti-vax rhetoric that MMR vaccine causes autism, that BigPharma is out to make money, that all vaccines are dangerous in some way or are part of government depopulation conspiracy theory. The result is people not vaccinating so manufactures don’t make enough for a whole population, and when a pandemic strain of a pathogen appears they are unprotected and can infect others.

                        -*11.2.1. This is a rare chance of being able to field test an observation made by others in the media. For the Holidays was in Utah which is a state that has relatively unrestricted gun control and ammunition laws. I visited three stores that carried guns and ammunition and asked if there was 22 ammunition available from both customers and sales people. Two of the stores had none, one had the ammunition, but it was limited and not all types were available. People were uniformly helpful and informative and were easy to strike up conversations with (possibly because I was wearing a military type jacket for the cold weather). All stated that the lack of 22 ammunition was due to the government. This belief was sustained even by pointing out other explanations or pointing out the massive amounts of other ammunition available. Even when questioning their belief the people remained friendly and helpful, though I did not push too hard with facts that would conflict with their beliefs. This may have been a good idea. Starting an argument where there are lots of weapons, ammunition, and people who knew how to use weapons and believed that the government is close to taking away their rights, might have been an overly risky experiment. ¶ BTW this could be in violation of the Institutional Review Board regarding human subjects. There was no formal research design, no names or locations were notes, there were no recording or notes, subjects were random and were free to stop assisting me at any point (beyond their own sense of being courteous), but I never stated that I was informally testing an observation made by others. There is no profit or other gain from this research and I am confident that no harm came to anyone physically or their beliefs.

-12. The Pandemic board game (Cover), has new editions since I last checked on it (150705-11, 141012-44, 130421-15, E100724-5↓), but the winning strategy of most of the games remains cooperation rather than competition. There are new Expansions: On the Brink that includes bioterrorism. In the Lab which adds more clinical  research and testing of cures. State of Emergency adds zoonotic diseases spreading from a remote area. Isolation covers when part of the world isolates from the rest of the world as almost happened in the US during Ebola. Government Shutdown in is the scenario of what happens when government shuts down due to a budget battle (the US Sequester of 2013) at the same time of an outbreak. ¶ New Standalones are: The Cure is a streamlined version of the game, Contagion where the players are now the pathogens and the goal is to eradicate humans. Legacy gives the time dimension where one must hold off outbreaks for a year, with each month being a new situation. Reign of Cthulhu for Lovecraft fans and the shutting down of cults and evil portals, but no Hellboy character [Cartoon]. Iberia is set in 1848 Spain against malaria, typhus, yellow fever and cholera, before antibiotics and vaccines. Among the “gamer community” there are speculations about a black death version and possibly a post antibiotic version. The Making of Pandemic, the board game that went viral.

            -12.1. Another pandemic game that has been covered before in Parademic is The Last of Us_(Search). This is a video game that follows a social collapse narrative from a zombie like epidemic. Reading The Game: 'The Last Of Us'. For years now, some of the best, wildest, most moving or revealing stories we've been telling ourselves have come not from books, movies or TV, but from video games. So we're running an occasional series, Reading The Game, in which we take a look at some of these games from a literary perspective. The Last of Us is as much about the bonds between Joel and his surrogate daughter Ellie as it is about their post fungal apocalypse world. Joel and Ellie fight zombies and soldiers and bandits and madmen. They lose friends and see sunrises and, this time, I play with an awful wisdom. Cassandra's curse. I know how this story ends and I have made up my mind that, this time, I will make the other choice. The right one (morally, mathematically, humanistically), and so I walk with ghosts the whole way, right up to the end, and I make the exact same choice again. [Screen Save]

-13. This scareline (head+line changed to scare+line) overstates the impact to the level of a disaster, but still a good example of unintended consequences. Returned Gifts Are Creating an Environmental Disaster. During the first week of January, US consumers will send nearly $30 billion in products back to where they came from, returning 9% of all Ecommerce purchases. That adds up to 5.8 million packages in transit, peaking January 5^th, a day that UPS has nicknamed National Returns Day. ¶ But here’s something you probably didn’t know: Many of those returns aren’t going to make it back into store inventory and onto shelves. Instead, they will rack up a giant carbon footprint as they wind their way through a network of middlemen and resellers and, at each step, a share of those goods will be discarded in landfills. This is a huge environmental impact. It’s over 4 billion pounds of [landfill] waste generated a year in the US from reverse logistics. Like most unintended consequences if some analysis – asking what will happen to the larger system the action in embedded in if this is done – had been applied to the larger context and not a specific problem or act, the consequence could have been mitigated. In most cases the unintended consequence is actually known, but either the information does not reach decision makers, or is dismissed by the decision maker, usually for a short gain advantage. Returning a Christmas Gift. 'National Returns Day' Brings Record Numbers of Packages Sent Back, A Growing Holiday Pastime: Returning Those Unwanted Gifts, [Cartoon, Cartoon, Photo].

-14. Continued 161225-11↓ (misnumbered as 10). In previous years of parademic the days between Christmas and New Years tended to be extremely sparse of articles related to parademic. Though my usual sources dried up, other sources provided more than usual. This if the first time the number is equal to a normal week. Either there is more related information, or my skills at finding related information have improved, an anomaly of 2016, or the start of a trend recognizing* the human element of biodisaster, or a combination of all these. The Pathogen Buzz of 2016, From Crispr to Zika, Here Are 2016’s Biggest Biology Stories, 2016: The Year Bullshit Was Weaponized. Medical and Health News That Stuck With Us in 2016. Will 2016 Go down as the Beginning of a Vast Conspiracy Age.

            -*14.1. Culture: the Missing Link in Health Research. Culture is essential for humans to exist. Yet surprisingly little attention has been paid to identifying how culture works or developing standards to guide the application of this concept in health research. This paper describes a multidisciplinary effort to find consensus on essential elements of a definition of culture to guide researchers in studying how cultural processes influence health and health behaviors. We first highlight the lack of progress made in the health sciences to explain differences between population groups, and then identify 10 key barriers in research impeding progress in more effectively and rapidly realizing equity in health outcomes. Second, we highlight the primarily mono cultural lens through which health behavior is currently conceptualized, third, we present a consensus definition of culture as an integrating framework, and last, we provide guidelines to more effectively operationalize the concept of culture for health research. We hope this effort will be useful to researchers, reviewers, and funders alike. Though still rare this is yet another article addressing that the human dimension of biodisaster is neglected. 5↑.

            -14.2. A different, possibly paradoxical, and ironical twist of this human perspective is Why Academics Consulting with Industry on Health Care May Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come. The likely repeal of the Affordable Care Act and continued angst over drug prices mean health economists like us will be asked to provide answers to inform policy debates. For example, a majority of American voters believe pharmaceutical prices are too high. Less clear is what to do about it. It is here academics play an important role, helping to evaluate the impact of policies ranging from federal negotiation of drug prices to finding alternatives to the Affordable Care Act. ¶ Perhaps ironically, the advent of the Trump presidency could signal an even greater role for academics in shaping public policy. ¶ So it is a good time to ask: How do we know what we say we know, and can we be trusted to steer through hyper partisanship and corporate self interest. Research in many areas, including health economics, features partnership and collaboration between industry and academics like us. Private firms face a range of difficult questions that need answers. Does a drug work. For whom is it most valuable. Academics are trained to answer important policy questions like these.

↕C. Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Corner [Logo]. Addressing Stigma 2, 11↑. Stigma can affect people, places, or things. It occurs when people associate a risk with something specific—like a minority population group—and there is no evidence that the risk is greater in that group than in the general population. Stigmatization is especially common in disease outbreaks. ¶ A 2002 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China caused global concern. Unfortunately, fear also led to a great deal of stigma. Although there were no associated cases of SARS in America, many citizens began to avoid Chinatowns and other Asian American communities – including Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese peoples – throughout the United States because they believed those groups were at greater risk for spreading SARS. Interesting that this did not use Ebolaphobia as an example, which was far wider and got more media attention, but then this prejudice/stigma may be politically sensitive.  Stigmatized groups may suffer psychologically and economically. They may be subjected to: Social avoidance or rejection; Denial of healthcare, education, housing, or employment; Physical violence. All of which happened during Ebola to those who were of African decent, visited Africa, provided health care in Africa and/or for Ebola, or could spell Africa. Again this may be currently 2 politically sensitive to use as an example. ¶ Stigmatizing groups may also distract people from focusing on the real risks in a crisis situation. When only part of a population is perceived as being affected, others may incorrectly believe they are not at risk. By assuming they are safe, majority population groups may not take important public health precautions, unintentionally compromising their own health and well being. This was seen during the early period of HIV/AIDS in the US, which fed the existing moral panic against homosexual males. ¶ Crisis communicators must work to counter stigmatization during a disaster. Messages should reinforce real risks through accurate information and awareness. Images should reflect all people who are susceptible to getting sick. Ideally, public health messages will proactively address possible stigma before it begins. However, prepared communicators should be ready to challenge any negative stigmatizing behaviors that do emerge. Once again waiting for a crisis, not anticipating the so called emergent behavior. Emergent usually have precursors to indicate these as a potential problem in a crisis.

            -C.1. Languages Still a Major Barrier to Global Science, New Research Finds. English is now considered the common language, or 'lingua franca', of global science. All major scientific jou rnals seemingly publish in English, despite the fact that their pages contain research from across the globe. However, a new study suggests that over a third of new scientific reports are published in languages other than English, which can result in these findings being overlooked –  contributing to biases in our understanding. This would be a fruitful area for science journalism, the accurate transliteration of science from one language to another. Unfortunately the current consensus is that “science journalism_(Search)” is fraught with errors. This would indicate the skills for distributing science knowledge into a more generally understood form are lacking. ¶ The ideal solution would be if those who created the original research would translate into another language, but apparently that skill is lacking, or the time required to do so is lacking, and there is no incentive to improve this shortfall. Against Foreign Language Requirements. Could not find a global study of science degrees and language requirements. Did get the impression that many non-English science program require a degree of proficiency in English and in fact many science and engineering students attend English only graduate programs. Among English only schools itappears that only humanities and soft/social science programs require an ability to read (with dictionary at hand) an article in ones field is a foreign language. Hard sciences and medicine seem to avoid this. Democratizing Science in an Age of Uncertainty.