Read This First 1. Politicized Science and Medicine, 2. Social Contagion, 3. Grief Resilience , ↕4. Mosquito Borne, 5. Changing Demographic Landscape, 6. Medical Emergency Law, 7. Pennsylvania Vaccine Law, 8. Hidden Biodisaster, 9. Conflict and Disease, 10. Dumber and Kluless, 11. Pandemic Plan, ↕C. Communications.
-1. Continuation of 170423-C.1↓. 7 Takeaways from the March for Science. • Can a science march be nonpartisan. Well, no. • Trump the threat. • Diversity: Well, they tried. • The no shows: Biotech and pharma (Drugmakers Dramatically Boosted Lobbying Spending in Trump’s First Quarter 4*A↓). • Come on, a March for Science. Seriously. • Scientists should let their hair down. • What happens next. Tens of Thousands Marched for Science. Now What. ¶ Scientists Actually Did Some Science at the March for Science. A sociologist who studies protest movements – like many other scientists, social or otherwise – wants to know who was at the march, why they came, and if they are seasoned protesters or first time marchers. Her survey aims to compare the people who turned out Saturday both with the protesters at the Women’s March in January and next weekend’s climate march 1.3↓ in Washington. Those results will becompared with similar surveys at other protests around the world. The question she wants to answer: Is this the start of a new broad 1960s style protest movement against the Trump administration, or the effort of smaller, determined group of seasoned protesters. I want to understand whether this new cycle of discontent is continuing to draw new people out. Is the umbrella expanding or contracting. What motivates people to come out. Is it for science or for people concerned about Black Lives Matter or immigration and this is a chance to protest the president. Marching Brought Scientists Together – But What Do They Do Now. Before You Join the Science March. Science Isn't Partisan, but Public Perception of Science Often is. Web Roundup: Marching for Science, Which Is What, Exactly. ¶ Unlike other political protests there was humor involved, The “March for Science”– No Laughing Matter, The Best Moments from the March for Science, [Tweet, Tweet, Tweet, Meme, Slogan, Photo, Cartoon, Cartoon, Cartoon, Photo, Cartoon]. Like other political protests and parademic there is: political maneuvering, fake news, conspiracy theory (The Dark Allure of Conspiracy Theories, Explained by a Psychologist) related to it, Trump Defends Climate Policies as Thousands Take Part in March on Science, Trump Just Responded to the Science Marches in a Disturbing Way, [Sign, Cartoon, Cartoon, Poster]. Wikipedia Founder Launches Site to Fight Fake News. The Problem with the March for Science. Our culture’s understanding of science is very, very broken. How to Talk Across the Aisle When You're Marching for Science (Or Climate Change).
-A. 4 Rules for Making a Protest Work, According to Experts. 1) Make the message as salient as possible. 2) Unite overlapping protest concerns under one banner. 3) Pivot from talk to action. 4) Protests can’t just be reactive. They need to be proactive. This missed an important one. Will the target audiences (Trumpism 170220-2 et al↓, general population, non-activists scientists) of the protest listen, have a reason a reason to listen, and will react in a desired way. As Scientists Get Political, Public Health Offers a Blueprint for Success. On April 22, scientists will march on Washington, DC in support of empiricism, data and fact-based policy making. The young Trump administration has already shown itself to be at best skeptical, and at worse hostile, to these principles. From its flirtation with climate change denial to its dim view of the proven effectiveness of vaccines, this presidency has worried the scientific community, galvanizing political action. What Is Science Good for. The March for Science can meaningfully celebrate the ways in which the process of science enhances our lives, and it can usefully demand that the government pursue evidence based public policy. A Conservative Journalist’s Reflections on the March for Science Protests, the protest allowed me to be enthralled by the legitimate grief people are feeling. The grief, to me, is misguided and ultimately unfounded; nevertheless, the protest at was an excellent expose of the vocal majority shutting out a silent majority.
-1.1. Continuation of 170423-10↓. Dem Senator: Trump 'Politicizing' Position of Surgeon General, Does America Need a Surgeon General (2014). The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy Dismissed. Dr. Murthy said in a long Facebook posting late Friday night that he believed Adm. Trent-Adams was “capable and compassionate” and described lessons he said he had learned from a job he had been honored to hold. “Healing happens when we are able to truly talk and connect with each other. That means listening and understanding. It means assuming good, not the worst. It means pausing before we judge. Building a more connected America will require us to find new ways to talk to each other”. Likely he will not appoint anyone to further neutralize the position, after all the current Surgeon General is only a nurse. Trump may wait until his third or partway into his fourth years to continue his legacy into either his second term (and allow him to continue it into the next presidency, by reappointment or selecting someone even more to his liking. I wonder if Trump is aware that the Surgeon General can only be selected from the USPHS.
-1.2. Continuation of 170423-10.1↓. Trump Should Consider the Health Consequences of Immigration Policy, Not Just Economics. Deportation Harms the Health of Children Who Are Left Behind. Health Care in America: An Employment Bonanza and a Runaway Cost Crisis. Border Wall, Health Care Jeopardize Bill Days from Shutdown. Trump Moves Obamacare Repeal and Replace to September. It’s Time to Come Together to Improve Our Healthcare System. It was not that long ago that I was perceiving that some BioTrumpism issues were becoming redundant 170416-1A↓. My thought was to shorten the blog by not repeating the same negative parademic information over and over again. I’m now disabused of a simplistic binary view of destruction, that something was damaged or not damaged, and the insidious subtle ways it can be accomplished, analogous to the slow hidden disaster of biosphere disaster until acceleration. There is are many levels ranging from neutralization, where there is no damage but inability to apply to capabilities, to total and complete annihilation where there is no possibility of reconstruction, recreation, revival and perhaps even remembering what was. Apparently when winning equal annihilation there are far more measures that can be taken than I’d anticipated. BioTrumpism is a simplified vehicle to understand the larger interactions of parademic behavior that create the conditions of biodisaster and lead to its acceleration. I do resent having most of biopolitics being filtered though the social disruption of Trumpism, but it does simplify covering biosphere social sphere interaction. Trump Will Sign Orders That Could Expand Access to Fossil Fuels, Trump Order Could Undo Designation of National Monuments.
-Quote: Perception is more important than reality. If someone perceives something to be true, it is more important than if it is in fact true. This doesn't mean you should be duplicitous or deceitful, but don't go out of your way to correct a false assumption if it plays to your advantage. – Ivanka Trump, The Trump Card: Playing to Win in Work and Life, John Oliver Calls Out Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner for Duping America, 170220-Quote12. Ivanka Trump Parts Ways with Her Father on Syrian Refugees.
1.3. 1↑, C↓, Thousands of Marchers Expected to Take on Trump's Climate Policies, Climate March Draws Massive Crowd to D.C. in Sweltering Heat, Today’s March Unites People Protesting Rollbacks of Environmental Protections, ‘I Can’t Believe I’m Protesting for Reality’ and Other Signs at the March.
-2. Illustration of contagious rumor, or wishful thinking that if one individual who spreads fake news, fear mongers, can be ousted by sexual harassment, then why not others, 170423-8.1↓. The logical fallacy of association adds to its credibility. Interestingly the reports of harassment continued even after the story was debunked – or maybe there was a conspiracy to force her to recant. Trump Pal Sean Hannity Accused of Sexual Harassment as Fox News Scandal Grows [Tweet, Meme], Sean Hannity Vows Legal Action after Accusation, Hannity Accuser Says He Didn't 'Sexually Harass' Her, but Was 'Creepy' [Twitter, Sign], 11 Sue Fox News, Citing 'Intolerable' Racial Bias. This reminds one of a disease outbreak that has been hidden for a long time then suddenly explodes into several cases at once.
-A. Another source of rumor is when there is uncertainty, a lack of an answer. Could Polio or Other Vaccinations Be Behind the New Polio like Illness Outbreak in California (2014). CDC Still Stumped by Cause of Mystery Paralysis in Kids. Disease detectives say they're still stumped by what causes a rare, polio like paralyzing condition in kids and say they don't have a No. 1 suspect. And legitimate speculation, that gives a story legs and more speculation, can build to rumor, More from Fofana on the Greenville Deaths, WHO Says Liberia Taking Precautions after Mystery Deaths, Liberia: More on the Greenville Outbreak, Liberia: 9 Persons Die Mysteriously in Sinoe County, 7 Die Mysteriously in Greenville, Liberia: Something Bad Is Happening, Latest Ebola Outbreak over in Liberia; West Africa Is at Zero, but New Flare Ups Are Likely to Occur (January 2016) like the case in March. Finally there an answer, assuming it is circulated and believed, and the cause is definitively identified, otherwise there could still be rumor Ebola Ruled out in Unexplained Liberian Deaths. More than likely this story will not become a rumor perpetuated by “western media” due to Ebola fatigue, but because of a priori narratives of those who maybe directly infected Witchcraft, Ebola or ‘Something Else’ is Killing Liberians, or becomes a parademic without an actual biothreat. WHO: Press Conference Notes on Cluster of Unexplained Deaths in Liberia. The past few days the media has been filled with reports of a cluster of severe illness and sudden deaths among attendees of a funeral in Liberia - a scenario similar enough to that seen during their 2014 Ebola epidemic to raise concerns that the virus had resurfaced. Mystery Deaths in Liberia Linked to Funeral. Ebola Outbreak in Sierra Leone Began at a Funeral (2014). Death Toll Rises to 11 as Liberia's Mysterious Disease Spreads. Strange Disease Hits Monrovia, Health Authorities Say 1 Pronounced Dead. Liberia: Authorities in Sinoe County Shut down Schools.
-3. After the Death of a Friend, Healing in a Human Social Network. The first large scale study of recovery and resilience after a death in a friend group – based on analysis of interactions in 15,000 anonymized networks on Facebook – finds that when a friend dies, we get closer to that person's friends. The social network repairs itself in ways that keep our total connectedness the same. I doubt that this will be applicable to situations of mass fatalities, nor to real world social networks (face to face). I doubt that a facebook friend is the same thing as friend in the real world where there are more personal connections between people than a cyber one. Facebook Can Provide Safety Net for Bereaved People. Watch the Causes of Death Change Across America. The patterns highlight key social and economic issues in the country 5↓.
-3.1. Likewise computer modeling of a biodisaster is possible (and apparently getting better), but that is because of predictability. Parademic however is more difficult to model as there are more uncontrollable variables. There are repetitions of behavior, but so far I have not identified a replication of patterns. There are convergences of circumstances that appear to proceed a range of related behavior, but these are nearly concurrent with the behavior and leave little opportunity for predictability before the actsevent. Managing Disease Spread Through Accessible Modeling. Lower computing requirements and streamlined data analysis support public health decision making (actually this is choice selection) with epidemiological models. In a real world outbreak, the time is often too short and the data too limited to build a really accurate model to map disease progression or guide public health decisions. The aim is to use existing models with low computational requirements first to explore disease control measures and second to develop a platform for public health collaborators to use and provide feedback on models. And herein is the problem. CDC created precise epidemiological models about Ebola in the US, literally had is under control, and it only took a few human factors to minipulate a non event into a dangerous parademic that is still having consequences today. One of the patterns that has been consistent across a large range or dissimilar circumstances is Quote: Lessons from Experience, but will the lessons be learned or repeated. See 3.1, 4.1↓. Civil Unrest – Prediction & Preparedness.
-3.2. Emergency Management – A Misnomer. “Emergency management” is a term broadly defining a field that includes federal, state, and local government agencies, voluntary organizations active in disasters, and private sector (170423-2.1↓) stakeholders that conduct a variety of activities to prepare for, mitigate against, respond to, and recover from incidents. However, “emergency management” does not accurately describe the discipline or represent the most valuable skillset of emergency managers and their agencies: complex problem solving. ¶ Emergency managers require the ability to perform complex problem solving and enabling other agencies to conduct their operations more efficiently and effectively. In order to increase relevancy, accurately portray their best characteristics, and move toward the future of emergency management, emergency management agencies should emphasize their problem solving ability and focus on building up and supporting other agencies within the whole community emergency management system while reducing risks regardless of cause. ¶ Emergency managers typically are relied upon as the subject matter experts for incidents such as hurricanes, tornadoes, winter storms, wildfires, and floods. Emergency management agencies may even focus their programs and personnel on the specific hazards that affect them most often. Potential issues may arise by developing an agency’s mission around specific hazards, even ones that are common to an area. Hazard specific planning increases emergency management agencies’ vulnerability to one off incidents, black swan events, and disruptive threats with cascading consequences (a fair description of biodisaster). Emergencies are not perfectly predictable. For this reason, many emergency managers have adopted an all hazards planning approach. But perhaps an all hazards approach is too narrow a scope for the mission of emergency management. Note that all hazard does not include slow (famine, drought, climate change), hidden (contamination, disease), cumulative (accumulating doses) [Chart], economic, ecological, policy (birth control, bans, walls). Collectively these are biodisaster and parademic. A, so far, fictional version of this is, If America Becomes a Dystopian Hellscape, it Might Look like this [Cover]. What DHS Does During Pandemics to mitigate the impact of a pandemic on homeland security, health and safety, critical infrastructure and the basic functions of American society.
↕4. As Zika Season Nears, States Brace for An End to CDC Funding. State programs that track Zika infections and Zika related birth defects around the country are in jeopardy as public health officials have been told not to count on federal funds for those efforts after July*. The problem is exacerbated with cutting global health programs The End of Foreign Aid As We Know It. Donald Trump's vow to put "America first" includes a plan to drastically cut assistance to developing countries and merge the State Department with USAID, according to an internal budget document and sources. One consequence of this is that for self interest business will have to fill the gaps. For an American business first policy this could be a boon**. Trump’s Nuclear Option on Obamacare, Trump Considers Provocative New Hostage Strategy on Health Care***. The Potential Economic Burden of Zika in the Continental United States.
-*A. This may be a repeat of last summer’s Zika Funds Fail in Senate as Democrats Decry ‘Poison Pills’, This Is Why People Hate Congress: Politics Stymies Fight Against Zika Virus. Another possibility is maneuvering to hold health care hostage for other agendas, Trump Threatens to Hold Health Care for Millions Hostage in Bid to Blackmail Democrats, Downside to Holding Obamacare Hostage to Pay for Trump’s Wall. Obamacare Is More Popular, [Cartoon]. ¶ Holding the Polio Vaccine Hostage (2012), The Pakistani Taliban’s Campaign Against Polio Vaccination (2014), ield HYPERLINK "http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/02/150225-polio-pakistan-vaccination-virus-health/" How the Bin Laden Raid Put Vaccinators Under the Gun in Pakistan (2015 but concerning event that happened in 2011). In actual fact the Taliban had been involved in preventing polio vaccination prior to 2011 Pakistan, Politics and Polio (2009), Religious Opposition to Polio Vaccination (2009). The use of Hepatitis B vaccine as a cover to find DNA of bin Laden, CIA Organised Fake Vaccination Drive to Get Osama Bin Laden's Family DNA (2011), provided a pretext for violent attacks and to hold and to use hostages as human shields from attacks, Taliban: Stop U.S. Drone Strikes or No Polio Vaccines Get to Pakistani Children (2012). ¶ Congress Is Back in Session, and Sneaking the Cruel Sham That Is Right to Try in a must Pass Bill Is on the Agenda, 7.1, 170423-10.1↓. may not be for misguided humanitarian reasons, but could be for stock manipulation, avoiding cost of testing, avoiding liability, ** all to the benefit of pharma and biotech that are lobbying 1↑ so hard right now. Is this a BigPharma conspiracy theory. ¶ When connecting dots it always helps that the dots and links are real, but one can still make imagined dots and links look real if one does not insist of evidence. Right to try 7.1↓ has long been a political issue (that is create an issue to get votes) that got a big boost during Ebolaphobia. ***Then again Trumpism could achieve some of its goals by forcing a government shut down and sequester(Search). The last one had negative impact on health, environment and research, The Sequestration Cuts that Are Harming Health Care, New Report Illustrates Impact of Sequestration to Medical Research, Less Green for Green: Sequester Impacts Energy and Environment Related Federal Agencies. The White House Seems Excited to Shut down the Government, but then blinks (sort of) Trump Softens Border Wall Demands in Bid to Calm Shutdown Jitters. Will the Government Shutdown Happen, these political games are unproductive and a huge waste of time and mone
-4.1. See 3.1↑. Understanding Malaria with Mathematics. Mathematical formulas that model how deadly mosquito borne diseases spread can help medical researchers accurately predict how real life outbreaks develop and find countermeasures. It is known Where Malaria Occurs in the physical world biomes, but what about different anthromes [Map]. Topologies of humans areas are multiple layers of different ratios of economics, education, occupation, status, beliefs, ethnicity, infrastructure, mobility, social relations, densities, interface with natural areas ........ Have not yet found a system that can be a heuristic for this. Hundreds of Thousands of Babies Will Receive World’s First Malaria Vaccine; however, it hasn’t been as effective as expected. It requires multiple doses, which present difficulties in terms of logistics. And over time, it grows less effective, requiring a booster shot. Malaria Wiped out in U.S. but Still Plagues U.S. Hospitals. With Yellow Fever Reaching Rio, Official Says Brazil Prepared. So far this usually turns out to be false when there are assurances it will not happen, or alarm that it will. 170423-4, 170416-4 -4A, 170312-4.1, 170226-4, 170205-4.3, 170115-4.2, 161009-2, 160807-3 -10, 160710-1↓+. Let’s Work Across Borders to Fight Mosquito Borne Disease. Why Cuts in Funding for UN, Climate Change Research Imperil Fight Against Malaria, Five Myths about Mosquitoes and Malaria. Returning Travelers Cause Sizable Malaria Burden in US. US Running Out of Yellow Fever Vaccine, U.S. Yellow Fever Vaccine Supply Will Be Gone by this Summer, but CDC Has a Plan, U.S. Supply of Yellow Fever Vaccine Will Run out by Midsummer, Shortage of Yellow Fever Vaccine Hits the US, and Could Be Long Lasting.
-5. Biodisaster does not always change the physical landscape, only the demographic one, but this one changes both. Migration from Sea Level Rise Could Reshape Cities Inland. 13.1 million people could be displaced by rising ocean waters, with Atlanta, Houston and Phoenix as top destinations for those forced to relocate. Migration Induced by Sea level Rise Could Reshape the US Population Landscape. Many sea level rise (SLR) assessments focus on populations presently inhabiting vulnerable coastal communities, but to date no studies have attempted to model the destinations of these potentially displaced persons. With millions of potential future migrants in heavily populated coastal communities, SLR scholarship focusing solely on coastal communities characterizes SLR as primarily a coastal issue, obscuring the potential impacts in landlocked communities created by SLR induced displacement. The Effects of Climate Change Will Force Millions to Migrate. Here's What this Means for Human Security. Climate change is more than melting ice caps and swamped islands. The environmental effects of climate change – droughts, floods and severe weather, for instance – have increasingly put more people on the move. And like other refugees they are a population the is vulnerable to health threats and other problems. 3↑, 170402-5↓. Climate Change: It’s the Mother of All Human Health Issues (Video). Why the Federal Flood Insurance Program Is $24.6 Billion under Water.
-5.1. When Planning for Sea Level Rise Turns to Play. Marin County teaches citizens how to make tough decisions for the future. when Marin County wanted to invite the public into the process of planning for that hazardous future two years ago, officials decided to try something different. Enter Game of Floods a choose your own hazard mitigation romp created by a team of local public works engineers and planners. Climate change may have its winners and losers, but this game focuses on the value of collaboration and small steps in the face of a huge challenge. [Cartoon].
-5.2. If true I may have to revise my speculation that no human society has been wiped out solely by a disease outbreak. Mastodon Discovery Shakes up Understanding of Early Humans in the New World. Broken bones and rocks yield evidence that pushes back the record of early humans in North America by more than 100,000 years. Remarkable New Evidence for Human Activity in North America 130,000 Years Ago, Controversial Study Makes a Staggering Claim About When the First Humans Settled North America, Archaeology Shocker: Study Claims Humans Reached the Americas 100,000 Years Earlier than Expected, Shaky Evidence for Humans in Americas 130,000 Years Ago. There is only limited and indirect evidence of humans as the markings on the bones are consistent with human action, but it could have been stranded aliens from space, a non human but tool using species, markings caused by other than tools that appear like tool marks. However if true the possibility of humans reaching the area by sea is not consistent with water craft technology of the time History of Boats and Ships – the oldest archaeological evidence is a dugout from a hollowed tree trunk dated between 8200 and 7600 BC. This implies (again, if true) overland travel during the last ice age, which implies multiple populations settling and excess moving south, probably along the then dry and ice free coasts (now submerged and lost by earlier SLR). A likely explanation is that this earlier migration went extinct. Probably were unable to sustain its population, possibly due to a zoonosis that was mastodon or mosquito in origin, lack of food (famine, Probably Fish Overfishing in One of World's Most Productive Fishing Regions), or becoming food for better adapted species and not adapted biologically or culturally to pursue food species onto inhospitable area. The last is very unlikely as hunters that could take on mastedons would have defense and fire from predators (except fellow homo sapiens predators) and could pursue game. In other words they eradicated themselves in a paleolithic form of BioTrumpism (warfare, self destructive policy, environmental degradation). ¶ ∩ What will be interesting is the analogue of shaping medical beliefs. Depending on what people read, hear and see, people may accept that humans were in the America’s more that 100,000 years ago, or skeptical about it. This new technology however could provide a definitive answer Scientists Extract DNA From Ancient Humans Out of Cave Dirt.
-6. #Website. The legal aspects of a biodisaster (another part of parademic) can get very complicated. This is in part because law has not addressed all issues (is a perpetrator of fake news or cures responsible for deaths), and what is addressed does not consider what will happen in a large scale biodisaster (like probate and inheritance when half the population is gone). The Emergency Law Inventory, a CDC funded project, collects and simplifies the laws volunteers need and want to know.
-6.1. One of the legal areas still in limbo is Vaccines on Trial: U.S. Court Separates Fact from Fiction. Since its first case in 1988, the vaccine court has adjudicated more than 16,000 petitions and dismissed two thirds of them. To the successful petitioners, and their lawyers, it has awarded about $3.6 billion. The system has attracted scores of attorneys, who are paid hourly legal fees of up to $430 regardless of whether a claim succeeds. The court's website lists 195 lawyers nationwide who are willing to take vaccine cases, although petitioners can hire others. Many are clearly in search of their piece of the $3.7 billion sitting in the trust fund today. A sampling of the bold proclamations on vaccine lawyers' websites include these: WE HAVE RECOVERED MILLIONS FOR OUR CLIENTS; Pursue Compensation; and NO COST to you. ¶ The legal practice, and the petitions filed at the vaccine court offer a window into the real risks of vaccination. Those risks can be as severe as extremely rare, dramatic deaths from anaphylaxis – an overwhelming allergic reaction – or as quotidian as shoulder injuries. Although petitions to the court do include the kind of bogus injuries that frighten parents, the most common, and prominent, of those has not been warmly received: Not once has the court compensated a petitioner claiming that a vaccine caused autism. If Vaccines Are Safe, Why Has the US Gov. Paid out $3 Billion to Vaccine Injured Families, Background on the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program Facts, Here's How the Anti-Vaxxers' Strongest Argument Falls Apart.
-7. New Pennsylvania Rules Aim to Get Students Vaccinated Sooner. New school vaccination rules that take effect in August will require Pennsylvania children to be fully vaccinated within the first 5 days of school. There is some protest Vaccination Opponents Protest Bill from Allentown's Rep. Schlossberg but not proportional to state figures, especially as philosophical objectors tend to be the most vocal. Nearly 8,000 childhood vaccination exemptions were granted in the 2013-2014 school year, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health. The number of philosophical exemptions granted totaled 3,394, about 42 percent, or 0.026% of the total population of 12.8 million; Vaccines Save Lives: Pa. Legislators Look to Close Childhood Immunization Loophole. National level anti-vax and conspiracy theory though seem very active. Pennsylvania - Act Now to Save Philosophical Vaccine Exemptions, Pennsylvania Proposes Mandatory Vaccinations Bill. This may be because it has been a long drawn out process, more effective pro vaccine messages, the success of the California law. There may be some association of anti-vax with Trump but the voting numbers don’t support that as it was a very close popular vote. However, the Democrat’s spoiler Green Party vote was possibly anti-vax, and those ratios do correspond to current level of anti-vax protest about the proposed law, Presidential Election in Pennsylvania, 2016, Jill Stein and Donald Trump Are Both Linked to a Dangerous Anti-Vaccine Myth That Just Won’t Die. The numbers may climb if the law seems more likely to pass, but interest in the law is probably low. There have been vaccine preventable disease outbreaks in Pennsylvania, but numbers have still been low, no measurable economic impact, and no deaths. Success of Children's Vaccines May Fool Parents into Skipping Them.
-7.1. April 26, 1954, Polio Vaccine Trials Begin, involving 1.8 million children, begin at the Franklin Sherman Elementary School in McLean, Virginia. Children in the United States, Canada and Finland participated in the trials, which used for the first time the now standard double-blind method, whereby neither the patient nor attending doctor knew if the inoculation was the vaccine or a placebo. A double blind study does have the ethical issue that if something has passed other tests and likely to work, still risking that some can still get sick when a cure was possible just to verify previous studies can seem cruel. This may be in part the logic behind right to try 4*A↑, 170423-10.1↓.
-7.2. Welcome to the Poison Garden: Medicine's Medieval Roots. One corner of the garden of Alnwick Castle in northern England grows a hundred plants behind lock and key. Many of the toxic species there were used by medieval doctors — nasty plants adapted to heal.
-7.3. The Riskiest Vaccine. The One That Is Not Given. Last week, public health authorities in Minnesota asked more than 200 people to quarantine themselves after 12 cases of measles were diagnosed in less than 2 weeks—all of them in unvaccinated children younger than 6 years. Across the ocean, an unvaccinated 17 year old Portuguese girl died of measles after the virus invaded her lungs, in the midst of an outbreak there that mirrors surges in cases in Germany, Italy, and Romania.
-7.4. Anti-vax conspiracy theory have included depopulation, sterilization, genocide, neurological and somatic damage, bioterrorism, intentional infecting people. This one is a variation of that theme, but one does have to admire the creativity of this one. Probably would have made a great science fiction novel. Quoth an Antivaxer: DNA Vaccines Are Contaminating Our DNA in the Name of Transhumanism. Transhumanism is the idea that one day humans will merge with machines, to the betterment of humankind. Antivaxers have a thing for transhumanism too. They think that somehow the real purpose of DNA vaccines is to prepare the human race for transhumanism. This is likely a reflection of the fear of People Aren't Ready for the Imminent Rise of Genetic Engineering, 20 Jobs Where Robots Are Already Replacing Humans, Blurring the Boundary Between Man and Machines: Are Humans the New Supercomputer. Skepticism About Biotechnology Isn’t Anti-Science. Artificial Intelligence Will Replace Half of All Jobs in the next Decade, Says Widely Followed Technologist. Machines Take Over the World (Video) C.3↓.
-8. Part of Anthropogenic Change. Urbanization Costs Five Billion Years of Evolutionary History. All over the globe, the urbanization of landscapes is increasing. 60% of the land surface which is expected to be urban by 2030 is currently not built on at all. How this will impact on biological diversity will only be apparent in retrospect. However, for most cities there have been systematic surveys of biological diversity, although only since the second half of the 20th century. Researchers have now revealed, on the basis of historical data, how plant diversity in the region of Halle an der Saale has changed in over 300 years of urbanisation, and have also made predictions about the future. Urbanization is a form of biodisaster, which completely negates my statement I make the biodisaster does not change the landscape, except that there is nothing visible. Besides being a subtle humor, a marthamble(Search), that only those with familiarity of parademic would understand the irony. Photos of an urbanscape and then saying no change to the landscape, except there are no people, was a dramatic way to make the point that a biodisaster can be unnoticed for long periods but still including a hidden biodisaster. This is in part because of the assumption that if people and things live in an area, it cannot be a biohazard. Being anthrocentric people would notice no people, but not that buildings were also a biodisater. Hidden in Plain Sight [Meme, Art, Photo = Photo, Art], Floating in Plain Sight, Invasive Aquatic Garden Plants, Invisible ‘Bird Killer’ Lurks in Revitalized New Jersey Meadowlands.
-9. When the Smoke Clears: Tobacco Control in Post Conflict Settings. The difficulties of prioritizing preventable disease and long term health issues in post conflict zones are explored. The current tendency is to focus on health concerns during a conflict as those may spread to other areas with war refugees. Not as much attention is paid to health issues that may contribute to war, or the health conditions after war. Liberia Fears Ebola Crisis Will Spark War, Civil War and Ebola, Ebola in the Context of Conflict Affected States and Health Systems: Case Studies of Northern Uganda and Sierra Leone. Six Months into Battle for Mosul, Water, Trauma Care Are Key UN and Partner Priorities.
-9.1. Once again we see a pure medical perspective as being all that is needed for containment and control of a medical crisis. This may be fine for research but does not have the cross disciplines on how to apply the research in a biodisaster. Team Science Critical to Diagnosis, Prevention, Treatment of Diseases. Tackling complex biomedical research increasingly requires the development of new approaches to facilitate innovative, creative and impactful discoveries. A group of scientists shows that a team science approach is critical to solving complex biomedical problems and advancing discoveries in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of human disease.
-10. Dunning-Kruger effect is observed in parademic constantly. Red flags that one has a decision maker who will exhibit this is claims that they have been doing this for years or otherwise are the expert, prevent collaboration and sharing of knowledge, become gate keepers to people in positions of higher authority, assume that success in other area will make them a success in another, have high turnover in staff, skilled at blaming others and rationalizations of why the plan did not work. Why Inept People Think They Are Much Smarter. The more inept you are the smarter you think you are. Psychologists have shown humans are poor judges of their own abilities, from sense of humour to grammar. Those worst at it are the worst judges of all. We Have Lost the Battle, when informed people are willing to take the risk.
-10.1. How to Act Quickly Without Sacrificing Critical Thinking. An unbridled urgency can be counterproductive and costly. If you’re too quick to react, you can end up with short sighted decisions or superficial solutions, neglecting underlying causes and create collateral damage in the process. But if you’re too deliberative and slow to respond, you can get caught flat footed, potentially missing an opportunity or allowing an emergent challenge to consume you. To balance these two extremes, you need reflective urgency — the ability to bring conscious, rapid reflection to the priorities of the moment — to align your best thinking with the swiftest course of action. How to Become a More Decisive Leader. • Reflective Urgency – The ability to consciously and rapidly reflect on the priorities, resources, and needs of the moment. Developing and maintaining a balanced "global picture" view of the anthrome and biome of the biosphers as a whole. Constant aware of the most important near term priorities and balance them with their long term impact and the resources I had available at the moment. Reflective urgency is a form of integrated thinking, where two conflicting ideas are held and explored at the same time, to find the most direct path to the most important priority of the moment. This will often looks circuitous and confusing to members of my team. The clarity and conviction of the decisionoutweighs any confusion in the near term. • Data Threshold – It is never going to be 100% of the available data before making a decision (data paralysis). There are just too many variables and unknowns out there. Gather enough to know the direction and magnitude of the decision at hand and to weigh the most salient facts. Everybody’s data threshold is different, but it’s important that it’s under 80%, otherwise it will only slow you and the team down. • Wrong Is Better than No Decision – The decision to not make a decision is still a decision. There are few decisions in life that cannot be reversed or modified, except the life or death ones. Outcomes matter, but it’s rare that they’re permanent, except the life or death ones, accept that you will make errors and learn from them quickly. How a decision is made is often more important than the decision itself. Decisions made with speed and conviction might not always be right, but will organization moving forward (learning, improving). Indecisiveness will damage your organization and reputation beyond repair. ¶ Other aspects of a parademic are Returning to Work When You’re Grieving, Inundated with Gunshot Victims, Chicago Doctors and Nurses Face CompassionFatigue, A Trauma Nurse Reflects on Compassion Fatigue (Poem). 3.1↑. Why Are We More at Risk Than Ever for a Global Pandemic.
-11. Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza – United States, 2017, replace the 2007 Interim Pre Pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States — Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions. New CDC Guidelines on Flu Pandemic Measures Reflect 2009 Lessons. New federal guidelines on using nonpharmaceutical measures to fight influenza pandemics reflect lessons learned during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, with changes that include a new framework for gauging the severity of the threat in the early stages. ¶ The guidance notes several lessons of the 2009 pandemic: • The pandemic virus emerged in North America, not overseas as expected from past pandemics, which meant there was less time to prepare for it. • In the early stages of a pandemic, its severity can be overestimated because the most severe cases are the ones most likely to be reported. • School related Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) were acceptable to most parents. • The pandemic was moderate overall, but it hit children, young adults, and pregnant women harder than older adults. • It took 6 months to make a vaccine available and 8 months to produce it in large quantities. In essence there were planning assumptions that were not questioned. Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza. NPIs: • Stay home when you are sick or have been exposed. • Covering coughs and sneezes with a tissue. • Wash hands or use hand sanitizer. • Covering your nose and mouth with a mask or cloth if you are sick and around people or at a mass gathering in a community. • School closures. • Social distancing measures. • Telecommuting and remote-meeting options in workplaces. • Mass gathering modifications, postponements, or cancellations. • Environmental surface cleaning measures. ¶ Pandemic Intervals: Investigation, Recognition, Initiation, Acceleration, Deceleration, Preparation (for the next wave). Unaddressed problem encountered in 2009 include that that the intervals do not correspond to operational phases of other agencies (except calling the intervals), there is still a focus on a single disease, ignoring human factors that will not follow the plan, and lack of collaboration with non-medical. Basically making a plan for the last pandemic.
↕C. This will probably have predictable impact on Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication from the CDC and HHS. Trump Names Anti-Abortion Leader Yoest to Top HHS Post as the Assistant Secretary of Public Affairs. Trump Will Appoint a Zealot Who Insists Abortion Causes Breast Cancer to HHS Leadership. This is part of the larger biotrumpism trends of EPA Website Removes Climate Science Site from Public View after Two Decades, We’re “Removing Outdated Language”: Trump’s EPA Has Taken down its Climate Change Page [Cartoon, Cartoon], How Betsy DeVos Could Harm Climate Education, No Surprise: “Skinny” Budget Undermines Science, Education, and the Public Good. Department of the Interior Scrubs ‘Climate Change’ Page, Trump’s Executive Order to Remove Protections for National Monuments, Day 99: Department of Interior Asks for Resignation of Obama Era Elk, Trump's Plan to Screw over National Monuments Is Mirrored by this Government Flickr Page. Court Freezes Clean Power Plan Lawsuit, Signaling Likely End to Obama’s Signature Climate Policy. Surprisingly the HHS webpage Climate Change and Human Health has not be changed since its Content last reviewed on June 23, 2016. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) considers climate change to be one of the top public health challenges of our time. Our mission to protect the health and well being of people in the United States depends on healthy and sustainable environments. Why Are Major Broadcast Networks Turning Away from Coverage of the Climate Disaster. Your Vote in the 2016 Election Explains Almost Everything about Your Climate Beliefs. 1.3↑. There will likely be a similar move in the FDA Donald Trump Is Taking on Michelle Obama's Healthy Food Legacy, 3 battle fronts in Trump's effort to make American food unhealthy again, as well as other areas. The FDA Cracks down on Bogus Cancer “Cures”. Will this Be the Last Time this Happens until after Trump and at the same time there is The Failure of the Texas Medical Board: Houston Cancer Quack Stanislaw Burzynski Is Back in Business [Cartoon]. Trump Picks Anti-Government Extremist as His ‘Regulatory Czar’. Health, safety, and environmental regulations were nice, while we had them. Apparently the Trumpism assumption is that business (framed as jobs), government regulations and protection of the environment are always incompatible.
-C.1. Bill Nye Can’t Save the World. His show likely won’t even reach the people it aims to influence. Not sure why the author assumes the intent of the show was to influence true believers of anti-science. My interpretation of the intent is to keep those who have faith in science tools that will help them maintain that belief in the onslaught of junk science, via the vehicle of a comedy. Bill Nye ‘Saves the World’ Where’s the Science, ‘Science Guy’, Bill Nye “Saves the World” – It Gets Worse, Bill Nye The Eugenics Guy: Maybe We Should Penalize People With "Extra Kids". Human physics and Newtonian physics differ. In communications there is no such then law as for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. One cannot even gurantee there is a reaction much less one that is opposite and equal. Bill Nye Saves the World has all the episodes. 7.4↑, 170423-7↓. Bill Nye Saves the World S1 E4 More Food, Less Hype is about GMOs.
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