Parademic Notes Week Ending 170820

Read This First (170423), Heuristics (New 170801), Glossary (New 170815)

1. Diversifarm, 2. Infrastructure and Medical Facilities, 3. Global and Local Health, ↕4. Mosquito Borne, 5. Science (Fiction) Literacy, 6. Solar Eclipse, 7. Medical Immunization Fraud, Communications, <ADDED>.

Tags: BioTrumpism, BioPolitics, Vaccine, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Climate Change, Global Health, Food Security, Herd Immunity, Power Outage, Social Contagion, Alternative Reasons, Dead Zone (not the movie), Polyculture, Charlottesville, EpiPen, Bees, Pesticide, EpiPen, Cyber, Triage, Bioweapons, Art, Benjamin Franklin, Vaccine Production, Yemen, Opioid, White Supremacy, Cascading Collapse, False Narrative, Tribal Epistimology, Euthanasia, SB 277, Collaboration

-1. Trees and Shrubs Offer New Food Crops to Diversify the Farm. What if we could design a landscape that would provide a variety of nutritious foods, high quality habitat, and ecosystem services, while also delivering a healthy profit to the landowner. It is not only possible, it should be adopted more widely, now. [Map]. Efforts to Reduce Pollution from Agriculture Paying off Slowly. Homeland Security Directorate Funds New Web Based Tools to Prepare for Livestock Disease Outbreaks. As India's Climate Changes, Farmers in the North Experiment with New Crops, farmers are starting to plant crops in winter, when fields would usually lie fallow.

            -1.1. Incomplete Drought Recovery May Be the New Normal. The amount of time it takes for an ecosystem to recover from a drought is an important measure of a drought's severity. During the 20^th century, the total area of land affected by drought increased, and longer recovery times became more common. Drought and Your Health. Aug 15, 1930, Hoover Looks to Combat Drought and Economic Depression. This video won’t solve the problem in the US southwest, but it is still a cool technology for a drought problem in another part of the world.

            -1.2. Tiny Fraction of Oceans Could Meet World's Fish Demand. World's oceans possess vast, untapped potential for sustainable aquaculture. This may meet human centric needs, but I have some concerns. This could decrease incentives to control human overpopulation, and like its land counterpart of agriculture could do extensive damage to the physical and biological environments before humans become aware of these because they begin to have negative impact on humans. ¶ We already have demonstrable damage to the hydrosphere from current fishing, dams and land based agriculture, and both the lithicsphere and hydrosphere have impact on the atmosphere. New Technique Offers Clues to Measure the Deoxygenation of the Ocean. The living, breathing ocean may be slowly starting to suffocate. More than two percent of the ocean's oxygen content has been depleted during the last half century, according to reports, and marine 'dead zones' continue to expand throughout the global ocean. This deoxygenation, triggered mainly by more fertilizers and wastewater flowing into the ocean, pose a serious threat to marine life and ecosystems. <ADDED 170806>-170723-3‡, 170702-1.1‡, 170521-1, 160807-7A. Climate Change Projected to Significantly Increase Harmful Algal Blooms in US Freshwaters. Can We Feed the World with Farmed Fish. Changing Tides: Lake Michigan Could Best Support Lake Trout and Steelhead. Invasive mussels and less nutrients from tributaries have altered the Lake Michigan ecosystem, making it more conducive to the stocking of lake trout and steelhead than Chinook salmon.

            -1.3. Hippos, Anthrax and Hunger Make a Deadly Mix. In Zambia, some people were so hungry that they risked their health to eat hippo meat infected with anthrax. This reveals how food insecurity can spread disease. Nearly a quarter of the local residents said that the rash of cases wouldn't stop them from continuing to butcher dead hippos. Meat is in short supply in this game management area in Zambia. Because the wildlife is protected, the locals aren't allowed to hunt for food. But scavenging is different. For them finding a dead animal when they're running low on food reserves at home seems like a good thing. This is why a lot of people took the risk even though they might get anthrax. They weren't thinking about that risk. They were thinking about feeding their family. One of the speculations about Ebola was that it entered the human population via bats eaten as bushmeat. <ADDED 170723>-170618-2.3 -‡.

            -1.4. Allocating Scarce Life Sustaining Resources in a Disaster. During a catastrophe, healthcare providers may face difficult questions about who will receive limited life saving resources (Triage_Search). My colleagues and I at Johns Hopkins just published the results of a multiyear study examining the public's values regarding how scarce mechanical ventilators should be allocated during an influenza pandemic. ¶ Most indicated a preference for approaches that prioritize short and long term survival – that is, giving priority to those most likely to survive the immediate illness in order to maximize the number of life years saved, consistent with previous recommendations made by experts. Lay participants also indicated that these should not be the only factors driving decision making during a crisis. Fairness and social justice, for example, were also very important to many participants. 10 major themes emerged. 1) Importance of transparency and public awareness around efforts to develop and implement an allocation framework. 2) Lay participants sought to solve the scarcity problem through technological fixes (the oft noted default to a technology before other solutions). 3) Lay and health care and disaster worker participants questioned implementing any single ethical principle, most were open to using a combination of principles, tailoring allocation decisions based on the dynamic conditions of a pandemic. 4) All emphasized the importance of planning, coordination, and communication about the framework in advance of crisis. 5) Many desired to reallocate a scarce medical resource to a loved one or to someone in greater need. 6) Concerns that health care providers may make biased decisions. 7) Lay participants worried that emergency allocation decisions would replicate existing inequities, and some expressed concerns that perceived “undesirable” groups would receive resources before “more deserving” others. 8) Concerns over the ability for some individuals to figure out how to “game” the system, that access to resources should be based on need rather than wealth, political pull, or favored social status. 9 Concern about withdrawing a resource from one patient to reallocate it to another patient with a better prognosis. 10) All worried about the emotionally wrenching aspects of allocating scarce medical resources. ¶ Values expressed by the public and frontline clinicians sometimes diverge from expert guidance in important ways, including in ethically challenging life and death situations. Awareness of these differences should inform policymaking. One question is if there is a major lethal pandemic and only a little vaccine – limited capacity to make more, making more will take a long time, or logistics costs (such as cold chain) were prohibitive – who to give the existing vaccine too. Previous policy answers were to give half doses, Yellow Fever Vaccine: UN Backs Lower Doses amid Shortage, waive medical protocols and authorize emergency measures, H1N1 Widespread in 46 States as Vaccines Lag, and research on calls to increase production requirements while maintaining, safety and testing standards, A Chicken and Egg Problem: How to Speed Up Production of Flu Shots (2005, H1N1 was in 2009, and currently few alternatives produce vaccines faster). How Influenza (Flu) Vaccines Are Made, egg based flu vaccine, cell based flu vaccine, and recombinant flu vaccine.

            -1.5. Aug 18, 1941 Hitler Suspends Euthanasia Program of the systematic murder of the mentally ill and handicapped be brought to an end because of protests within Germany. Children were transported from all over Germany to a Special Psychiatric Youth Department and killed. They had to be “certified” mentally ill, schizophrenic, or incapable of working for one reason or another. Jewish children already in mental hospitals, whatever the reason or whatever the prognosis, were automatically to be subject to the program. The program was then expanded to adults. It wasn’t long before protests began mounting within Germany, especially by doctors and clergy. Some had the courage to write Hitler directly and describe the T.4 program as “barbaric”; others circulated their opinions more discreetly. Heinrich Himmler regretted that the SS had not been put in charge. “We know how to deal with it correctly, without causing useless uproar among the people”. The intent of both programs was eugenics, specifically the improvement of the Aryan race. [Art (ideal), Photo (real), Photo (actual Aryan regional breeding population)]. Obviously eugenics can lead to dangerous absurd behavior and the hyper ridiculous, Taylor Swift, Aryan Goddess, with the typical ignoring of fact typical to such belief systems, Nobody Talks about the Fact That Taylor Swift Is Jewish. Here’s Why it Matters.

            -1.6. The Seven Tactics Unhealthy Industries Use to Undermine Public Health Policies. 1) Attack legitimate science. 2. Attack and intimidate scientists. 3) Create arms length front organisations, also known as astroturfing. 4) Manufacture false debate and insist on balance. 5) Frame issues in highly creative ways. 6) Fund industry disinformation campaigns. 7) Influence the political agenda. All of these seem so familiar, but I can’t quite place where I have seen these before. ¶ Fallen Forensics: Judges Routinely Allow Disavowed Science, Jeff Sessions Doesn’t Understand the Necessity of Science, No Room for Error: Clear Eyed Justice in Forensic Science Oversight, Jeff Sessions Wants Courts to Rely Less on Science and More on “Science”, 170416-1A, -170813-6↓. Undoubtedly science has ruined legal cases against undesirables who may not have committed this crime but have committed other crimes and deserve to be punished. Jeff Sessions and the Odds of Imprisoning Innocents, Most Forensic Science Isn’t Real Science. Try Telling That to the Criminal Justice System, Sessions Scraps Federal Commission on Forensic Accuracy, for Some Reason. Reject this Incompetent Trump Nominee; He's Not a Scientist, 170813-5.1*A. 85 Percent of the Top Science Jobs in Trump’s Government Don’t Even Have a Nominee, Donald Trump's Science Denial Is Becoming National Policy, Donald Trump’s War on Science. [Photo].

            -1.7. The Next Chapter in a Viral Arms Race. A highly lethal disease that controlled Australia’s rabbit problem initially evolved to be milder – but has since rebounded into a newly nasty form. And what if it jumps species to other animals, to include humans.

-2. Aug 14, 2003, Blackout hits Northeast United States. Power plants shut down in just three minutes. Fifty million people were affected, including residents of New York, Cleveland and Detroit, as well as Toronto and Ottawa, Canada. Although power companies were able to resume some service in as little as two hours, power remained off in other places for more than a day. The outage stopped trains and elevators, and disrupted everything from cellular telephone service to operations at hospitals to traffic at airports. In New York City, it took more than two hours for passengers to be evacuated from stalled subway trains. Small business owners were affected when they lost expensive refrigerated stock. The loss of use of electric water pumps interrupted water service in many areas. A blackout at the sametime as a biodisaster would synergize both.

-‡. Blackout of 2003: Public Health Effects and Emergency Response, Power Outages, Extreme Events and Health: A Systematic Review of the Literature from 2011-2012, Hospitals and the Blackout, Planning for Power Outages: A Guide for Hospitals and Healthcare Facilities. Spike in Deaths Blamed on 2003 New York Blackout, Do Blackout Baby Booms Exist and Why. [Photo].

-3. The potential costs of withdrawing from Global Health. Brexit: A Public Health Emergency of International Concern. 39. Dealing with pandemics: The EU has an early warning and response system for potential public health threats. Countries can easily share information, pool resources for lab investigations and work together to develop new strategies for future threats. After Brexit, the UK won't be part of this system. 40. EU health program: EU countries work closely together to combat unhealthy behaviors, such as smoking and drug and alcohol abuse, by sharing information and good practices. Projects with these goals can receive up to 80% of their funding from the EU. 41. Disease prevention and control: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control works to identify and combat threats to human health from infectious diseases such as influenza, waterborne diseases and HIV. It makes it easier for organizations across the EU to share information and expertise. According to a report by the Royal College of Physicians, programs managed by the ECDC could not be effectively fulfilled by national governments independently. Everything will be fine, until there is a problem, Not the Fall That Kills You [Meme]. Global Health Gets a Checkup. A CDC for Africa, Are Ebola Response Investments Making an Impact. CDC Epidemiologist Reflects on West Africa Then and Now.

            -3.1. Understanding Alternative Reasons for Denying Climate Change Could Help Bridge Divide. Mainstream criticism of people who deny climate change essentially portrays climate skeptics as being out of touch, ignorant or somehow incapable of understanding the facts about climate change. However, an early look at ongoing work that examines alternative reasons for climate change denial, specifically economic, social or cultural influences on why individuals or entire communities remain skeptical of climate change, contradicts this simplistic view. The most obvious example of this is the instance of an individual who works for an industry, such as in oil and gas production, that may be negatively impacted by regulatory policy. This also functions on the community level; for instance in Louisiana, oil and gas represents a disproportionate source of revenue for coastal parishes. [Cartoon].

            -‡. WADEM Climate Change Position Statement. EPA Chief Pruitt Borrows from an Old but Effective Denialist Playbook, 170716-5.3 -‡1. The Science Police, in highly controversial fields, researchers have to balance science and advocacy. Trump’s Infrastructure Plan Is That Infrastructure Can Now Ignore Climate Change. Health and Environmental Groups Sue EPA over New Rules on Toxics. The Axis of Climate Evil. Evidence of Climate Change Abounds amid Extreme Weather in the Pacific Northwest. Trump Administration Takes Key Step to Rolling Back Auto Fuel Standards, would not be surprised if the oil industry does not roll back the standards, in fact it will be like natural or organic foods to be able to market as holding to pollution and health standards. Scott Pruitt Is Dismantling EPA in Secret for the Same Reason the GOP Health Care Bill Was Secret. Trump to Revoke Obama Era Flood Risk Building Standards, ASFPM Reaction to Rollback of EO 13690 & FFRMS, while ASFPM is very supportive of additional investments in the nation's infrastructure, today's EO is a huge step backwards. We are extremely disappointed in the EO 13690 and Federal Flood Risk Management Standard being repealed, which will result in much higher costs to US taxpayers; Trump Axed a Rule That Would Help Protect Coastal Properties like Mar-a-Lago from Flooding. Federal Scientists Say Climate Change Is No Hoax, Refuting Trump. Trump Administration Reverses Bottled Water Ban In National Parks, the aim was to cut back on plastic litter; National Parks Put a Ban on Bottled Water to Ease Pollution. Trump Just Sided with the Lobby That Fought It, Trump's Decision to Allow Plastic Bottle Sales in National Parks Slammed, [Photo], -160626-7↓. It’s Time to Start Talking about “Negative” Carbon Dioxide Emissions. We have to bury gigatons of carbon to slow climate change. We’re not even close to ready.

            -A. Right Kind of Collaboration Is Key to Solving Environmental Problems. Different actors want different things, different environmental problems are related to each other, and different groups have differing amounts of influence. Does cooperation actually lead to a better environment. Certain patterns are more suitable for solving different types of shared problems. If the problem implies a high risk of riding on others' efforts, the situation is improved by tightly linking the actors together. It also makes a difference whether the environmental problem is temporary or more permanent. If it's temporary it can be more effective to have a cooperative network with a clearly chosen coordinator or leader to hold it together. The ability to solve problems depends on how a network 'aligns' with the structures and processes found in the affected ecosystem. If two actors deal with two different yet interconnected parts of the ecosystem they should work together. A good socioecological 'fit' would increase the possibilities of effectively solving environmental problems. For example if two fishermen who fish for the same species collaborate with each other. What Different Types of Teams Are in the Workplace, 7 Team Types That Make Business Possible. [Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo, Photo]. Help Employees Create Knowledge – Not Just Share It.

            -3.2. Recognizing Creativity and New Ideas. Killing creativity in your organization is the same as killing your organization. Ask the uniquely better questions. Is this unique. What would make it unique. Is it better. Is it better … really.

            -3.3. An Astonishing Change in How Americans Think about Government Run Health Care. For the past few years, pollsters have asked about a thousand or so Americans the same question: Does the government have an obligation to ensure all Americans have health care. They've found a remarkable shift, with Americans swinging sharply toward the belief that the government ought to play a very large role in the health care system. Specifically, the percentage of Americans who think the government has an obligation to ensure coverage to all citizens has risen from 42 percent in 2013 to 60 percent in 2017. The "Good", the "Bad" and the "Ugly" Managers When Dealing with Mistakes.

↕4. Herd Immunity Outside US Slows Zika in Florida. However, experts warn that herd immunity elsewhere won’t stop the virus from reemerging in this country. That has happened in Florida with other mosquito borne viruses in recent years. Also, herd immunity eventually wears off. As years go by, more people are born into a population and they haven’t encountered Zika, and so they’re going to introduce susceptibility into the population. Some number of years from now, those susceptible populations will rise to where you’d have sufficient numbers and then maybe we’d be doing this all over again. Zika Has All But Disappeared in the Americas. Why. One. That is the total number of locally transmitted Zika cases confirmed in the continental US this year, as of mid August. That single case, recorded on 26 July in Hidalgo County in Texas, which borders Mexico, contrasts with hundreds of cases of local transmission last year. Better control of Zika's vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito that thrives in the hotter, southern part of the country, doesn't explain the dearth of cases. Nor are other factors such as climate change at work. Instead, Zika cases have plummeted in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the virus raged over the past 2 years, and much of the population is now immune to it. That, in turn, means fewer infected people entering the United States, reducing the chances of mosquitoes spreading the virus to susceptible people. The respite could last for years. However other mosquito borne diseases are showing up swings Vietnam Battles Dengue Outbreaks with 42 Percent More Cases, Dengue Fever Infections in Vietnam up 60 Pct So Far this Year. When Will Yellow Fever Strike Brazil Again. Monkeys and Mosquitoes Hold Clues. Zika Pandemic Online Trends, Incidence and Health Risk Communication: A Time Trend Study. Mosquito Borne Illnesses Increase.

            -4.1. Pregnant Women Absent from Zika Vaccine Trials. When it comes to Zika infection, pregnant women have the most to lose. If the virus is passed from mother to baby, the debilitating effects on fetal health are irrevocable or fatal. While there are no known treatments or countermeasures against an infection, there are a handful of vaccines currently in early phases of human testing that are reportedly demonstrating promising results. But not in pregnant women, at least, not yet. More Potent, Safer Zika Vaccine Developed.

-5. Reproducing the Speculative: Reproductive Technology, Education, and Science Fiction. The popularity of science fiction is often linked to current events. For example, The 1985 book The Handmaid’s Tale have soared after Trump’s election and as fears of authoritarian control over women’s reproductive rights has surged, 170702-2.2. Looking toward the future makes sense when social, political, and economic tensions are high and raging fears of climate change, nuclear war, and the fate of the human species are hot topics in news segments and on social media.¶ But concern about these issues does not imply an understanding of them, and scientists often point to broad public unfamiliarity with science related issues. For example, while Americans value scientific research in general, significant gaps in public knowledge about science originate partly from a lack of interest in engaging with science news (much of it misleading to get an audience). A 2015 study indicated that a majority of Americans learn about current events, including science related topics, through social media. This limited understanding of scientific concepts does not prevent Americans from having strong opinions regarding science related issues. Science fiction is a “literature of change” and, in this context, is uniquely positioned to assist people in understanding the complexities of the world around them. ¶ Many scientists raise concerns that science fiction can negatively affect scientific literacy. Education researchers have argued that a single viewing of a science fiction film can negatively impact student ideas regarding scientific phenomena. Specifically…that the film leveraged the scientific authority of the main character, coupled with scientifically correct explanations of some basic earth science, to create a series of plausible, albeit unscientific, ideas that made sense to students (not unlike accepting the word of quacks, celebrities, guru’s as science fact). But rather than lamenting that the public will learn flawed science from science fiction argue that educators should engage with these works to explain inconsistencies and encourage critical thinking. Anthropologists and scholars, as well, can use science fiction to encourage students to think more deeply about the social implications of science and technology and to envision alternative futures. Science fiction is, in part, a mode of analysis, a way of thinking about alterity (170220-5.1 -6.5, 161016-8, The Other and Othering) and difference. 170813-5.1, <ADDED 170709>-170702-2.2. Fifty Years Later, Remembering SciFi Pioneer Hugo Gernsback.

            -5.1. Scientists Can Vaccinate Us Against Fake News. In this era, “fake news” is in. It consists of deliberate misinformation from phony sources spread through traditional print, broadcast news media or online social media to meet a specific agenda. Though it may seem to be one of the latest buzzwords, saying that fake news is new is, in fact, fake news – there is nothing new about it. In the 1200s BC, Rameses the Great purposely spread incorrect information portraying the battle of Kadesh as a victory for the Egyptians over the Hittites, when in fact it was a stalemate. In the 21^st century, fake news has been targeting climate change and vaccine safety. Climate change skeptics have been denying robust scientific evidence being accurately and clearly communicated to them by experts. For decades, cynical anti-vaccine groups have endeavored to undermine public trust in vaccines with mistrust and misinformation that appeals to emotion over hard evidence. The preponderance of evidence is that science arguing for its case is ineffective, indeed can make the situation worse.

            -5.2. Tribal Epistemology. In the early days of my skeptical career I spent time investigating and deconstructing classic pseudosciences*, like belief in Bigfoot, astrology, UFOs, and ghosts. I was often challenged as to why I even bothered – these are all silly but harmless beliefs. Is it really worth the time to dissect exactly why they are nonsense. My fellow skeptics and I knew the answer. We were interested not so much in the beliefs themselves but the believers. How does someone get to the point that they believe that the relative position of the stars at the moment of their birth could influence the wiring in their brain and even their destiny. At the time I think the answer most activist skeptics would give was scientific illiteracy. People simply lack knowledge of science and fills the gaps with entertaining fantasy, How Our Botched Understanding of 'Science' Ruins Everything. Lack of scientific knowledge definitely plays a role, and is an important problem to address, but it was naive to think it was the main cause. Such explanations do not survive long with contact with actual believers. It becomes rapidly clear that the primary malfunction of true believers is not a lack of information or scientific savvy. It’s something else entirely. ¶ Explanations for why people believe nonsense then evolved into a lack of critical thinking skills. Scientific knowledge needs to be coupled with an understanding of epistemology (how we know what we know), logic, cognitive biases and heuristics. This view, that belief in nonsense is mainly a failure of critical thinking, is closer to the truth. Our strategy for fighting against belief in pseudoscience and magic evolved into promoting not only scientific literacy but critical thinking skills. ¶ Then we saw the rise of ideological media 170521-6.1. This is written from a political point of view, but the phenomenon extends also to conspiracy thinking, alternative medicine, food fanatics, natural is best warriors, vaccine deniers, and even flat earthers. This is the primary cause of belief in nonsense is false narrative -170813-5.1, 170730-5.2B -C, -A↓, or tribal thinking, which is only facilitated by scientific illiteracy and lack of critical thinking skills. ¶ People tend to make sense of the world through stories, or narrative thinking. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, and it seems to be a core way in which our brains work. We are storytelling animals. But the narrative should be only a tool, subservient to facts and logic, and flexible and adaptable to change. What happens too often, however, is that the narrative takes control. It is no longer determined by facts – it determines what facts we believe. What happens when the narrative becomes a part of someone’s tribal identity. That is tribal epistemology – something is true if it supports my tribe, and it is fake if it is inconvenient or antagonistic to my tribe. ¶ Not only do people rely upon this simple rule to determine what to believe, they may even do so explicitly to replace traditional institutions of knowledge and rules of evidence. Proponents of alternative medicine want to literally change or even abolish the methods by which we determine what is safe and effective in medicine. They want to change the rules of science, or abandon science entirely, and disconnect regulations from scientific evidence How Trump Is Doing at Cutting Regs, and even to eliminate the standard of care. The changes they are attempting to impose on the institutions of medicine are more important than any one snake oil treatment they happen to be promoting. ¶ The institutions of information – academia, the media, experts – have been attacked as illegitimate in order to fend off their pesky standards of facts, transparency, and fairness because their conclusions were ideologically inconvenient. That, primarily, is what is meant by a “post truth” world. We no longer share common institutions or standards when it comes to information. Every ideological group can have their own media, their own experts, and their own information. Everything else is fake, or part of some conspiracy, or hopelessly compromised by conflicts of interest.

            -*. Much of pseudoscience seems to depend on having the veneer of science, without the actual science. Which one is the doctor [Photo, Tweet].

-6. ∩ Solar Eclipse May Cost Employers $694 Million in Work Disruption. Sweeping across 14 states on Monday, August 21, costing employers $694 million and taking its place among special events such as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament that most disrupt the workplace. How Long Will the 2017 Solar Eclipse Last. Depends Where You Are, averaging about 2 minutes of total eclipse covering a 70 mile wide strip, with a drop in temperature about 10 degrees, for a total duration of about 1 hour 30 minutes, [Map, Chart]. Now multiple this amount of work disruption and cost with a biodisaster that lasts months or years, where the labor and knowledge loss will be permanent, where resources will need to be diverted to mitigate damage and care for the sick. Then one gets a feel for the economic consequences of a biodisaster. -170730-5.2B.A↓.

-‡. People Still Think Eclipses Are Fire Eating Dragons and Doomsday Predictors, Astrology of the Bubonic Plague -170730-10↓. Benjamin Franklin Mocked Eclipse Astrology to Elevate Science. What Folklore Tells Us About Eclipses. How Eclipse Anxiety Helped Lay the Foundation for Modern Astronomy. Solar Eclipses Have Been a Science Fiction Theme for Thousands of Years. Eclipse Emergency Response a Region Wide Effort. Will the World End this Month. Conspiracy Theorists Claim the Upcoming Solar Eclipse Will Cause the Mysterious Planet Nibiru to Smash into Earth. If You Think an Eclipse Means Doomsday, You're Not the First. In Totality’s Path, Eclipse Mania Overshadows Fears of Eclipsemageddon — for Now. Eclipse of Reason: Why Do People Disbelieve Scientists. Ophthalmologists Bracing Themselves for Full Day of Work after Solar Eclipse.

-7. Medical Exemptions Soar in California as SB 277 Makes Personal Belief Exemptions Unavailable. California's new law that eliminates personal belief exemptions has been a success, increasing vaccine uptake after just one year. That isn't to say that there aren't problems. One potential problem is the increasing number of medical exemptions, likely fueled by doctors willing to write letters of support for them based on reasons that are not science based.

-‡. California SB 277: New Evidence That Restricting Nonmedical Exemptions to School Vaccine Requirements Works. California Immunization Rates Hit New Highs after State Law Limits Parental Exemptions. California SB 277: New Evidence That Restricting Nonmedical Exemptions to School Vaccine Requirements Works, California Immunization Rates Hit New Highs after State Law Limits Parental Exemptions. After SB 277, Online Medical Exemptions to School Vaccine Mandates Are Now for Sale. 170416-3.4, 170312-5.2, 170226-7, 170212-T.2A, 170101-2.3 -11.1, 161030-7.1, 160904-4.3, 160710-1.2 -Quote, 160515-6.2, 160207-9, +↓. Q&A: A Look at Pennsylvania’s New Student Immunization Rules. Part of this problem of fake certificates is that medical criminals look for the single targets that are a high reward. Choosing Alternative Cancer Treatment Doubles Your Risk of Death, these people tend to be wealthier and have higher levels of education, but are more than twice as likely to die in five years. The other method is like a ponzi scheme, where you get many to each provide a small amount (sometimes just their belief is sufficient for proof) where sometimes one can reel in a big fish, but provides lots of small revenue streams. In either method if they die then there is no one to complain or will be less likely to admit they were duped, a prefect crime because the victim helps, 170514-8‡; Alternative Medicine Kills, Alternative Medicine Doesn't Work for Cancer Treatments. More Gardasil Fear Mongering: A “Critical Review” of HPV Vaccination That Lacks Critical Thinking, HPV Vaccine Lowest in Disadvantaged Schools. Despite California’s Strict New Law, Hundreds of Schools Still Don’t Have Enough Vaccinated Kids. Here’s the Visual Proof of Why Vaccines Do More Good than Harm.

↕C. Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Corner [Logo]. Newsletter Archive.

            -C.1. This Anti-Nazi Film Went Viral after Charlottesville. It May Be less Effective than it Seems. The same lessons still not learned about countering messages, such as anti-vaccine, medical scams, anti-science, fear mongering, social contagion. In the late 1940s, two researchers set out to study the limits of Don’t Be a Sucker. After seeing the film, a quarter of the American born Protestants in the experimental group agreed that people born in America deserved preferential treatment, contrasted with fully half the same segment of the control group who did not see the film. Don’t Be a Sucker desensitized some viewers to the threat of fascism in America. Don’t Be a Sucker made some viewers more complacent. Americans haven’t stopped thinking they’re too good to be taken in by fascist and racist ideas. I am a rational person. People who think I am irrational think that they themselves are rational. Then I am rational, are they rational. 170813-C.1, 170723-7, 170618-C.2 covers the futility of trying to persuade anti-vax, clean food and goop; 170220-6.1 is another of a number of studies done during and after WWII to identify why the German nation was taken in by the Nazi’s. As I recall the studies largely concluded that American’s were as susceptible. American Psychologists and Wartime Research on Germany, 1941-1945, Mental Health for the Everyman: World War II's Impact on American Psychology, In Search of the Nazi Personality, The Psychological Tricks Used to Help Win World War Two, Milgram Experiment - Obedience to Authority. White Nationalists Are Flocking to Genetic Ancestry Tests. Some Don’t like What They Find. US Military Chiefs: No Room for Racists and Bigots in the Services. White Supremacy Isn't a Philosophy, It's a Filter.

            -A. Communication by action, non-action, words and saying nothing. Merck CEO Resigns from Presidential Council over Trump Remarks. Merck Stock Spikes after CEO Leaves Trump Council [Tweet], Trump's Fake War with Pharma, Will the Trump-Frazier Tiff Set off Another White House Attack on Drug Prices. Trump Blasts ‘Grandstanders’ as Another Business Leader Quits Council. [Meme, Tweet, Tweet, Tweet, Tweet, Tweet, Tweet, Cartoon]. CEOs' Dilemma: Supporting Trump's Agenda, Opposing His Behavior. J&J CEO to Stay on Trump’s Advisory Group amid Executive Exodus. Trump Disbands 2 Advisory Councils after String of Resignations [Tweet]. ¶ [Photo, Photos, spontaneous memorial from Charlottesville]. 170129-*T.3.1, -170813-5.1, -170730-5.2B -C.A↓. Implied in spontaneous memorial_(Search) is emergent actions, protest about what caused the death, This Is Just the Beginning of Heather's Legacy: Mourning and a Call to Action.

            -Statement: At Johnson & Johnson we are deeply saddened by the horrific events that occurred in Charlottesville this past weekend. Intolerance, racism, and violence have not place in our society. ¶ Several members have made the decision to leave President Trump's White House Manufacturing Advisory Council, and I respect their decision as a matter of personal conscience. Given the events of the past few days, I can understand the concerns – even the fear – that some people have expressed. These are difficult days for everyone. In the end, I have concluded that Johnson & Johnson has a responsibility to remains engaged, not as a way to support any specific political agenda, but as a way to represent the values of Our Credo as crucial public policy is discussed and developed. ¶ Ours is an important voice on healthcare, one that global leaders at every level, in and out of government need to hear. If we aren't in the room advocating for global health as a top priority, if we aren't there standing up for our belief in diversity and inclusion, or if we fail to speak out when the situation demands it, then we have abdicated Our Credo responsibility. We must engage if we hope to change the world and those who lead it. – Alex Gorsky, Johnson & Johnson CEO

            -B. After Charlottesville, a Doctor Reflects on Hateful Patients and His Own Biases. For doctors, public emergencies bring to mind ethical duties and dilemmas that never go away. Current events compel us to examine our core beliefs and do a gut check of our own ethical standards and sense of professionalism. We in the medical profession pride ourselves on the ideal of treating all patients, regardless of color, creed, gender, sexuality, legal, financial or health status. Sadly, we often fall far short, subject to our own biases and preconceptions about people based on how they look or, especially, how they interact with us. A patient exhibiting rude or belligerent behavior makes it hard to form a therapeutic alliance. It's easy to imagine a doctor feeling revulsion at the idea of caring for a marcher wearing a swastika or spouting racist invective. While the doctor's obligation is clear, what if such a patient were to refuse treatment because of the doctor's race. I've been asked point blank by patients if I'm Jewish. Being asked such a question is unnerving since it bears no relevance on my abilities as a doctor. Each time, I've been surprised by the patient's response when I answer in the affirmative: Good. I always like Jewish doctors, because they're the smart ones. [Tweet, Photo], I Went to Medical School in Charlottesville. I Know White Anger Well.

            -C.2. Vaccination Communication Strategies: What Have We Learned, and Lost, in 200 Years. Modern campaigns rely primarily on scientific fact, whereas 200 years ago, personal stories and emotional appeals were more common. A return to the old ways may be needed to increase immunisation rates. Anti-Vaccine Myths 'Debunked' in New Campaign to Counter Low Immunisation Rates. More on the Backfire Effect. One critical question for the skeptical enterprise is the notion of a backfire effect – when someone is given factual information about a myth that they believe, do they update and correct their beliefs or do they dig in their heels and believe the myth even stronger Some studies worryingly show that sometimes people dig in their heels, or they simply misremember the corrective information. #Document. Eight potential frames. Four appeared consistently in both current and 200 years ago rhetoric: 1) Social progress, 2) Public accountability/ governance, 3) Morality/ ethics, 4) Scientific/ Technical uncertainty appeared regularly in both periods. Rarely 5) Minor economic development/ Competitiveness appear in both time periods. 6) Third way/ Alternative path appeared once in 2016. Neither 7) Conflict/ Strategy and 8) Pandora’s Box/ Frankenstein’s monster/ Runaway science frames did not appear in either time. This study focused on Australia. In the US I have seen all eight used by both pro and anti-vaccination currently, but I am not familiar enough with the rhetoric of 200 years ago to make any statements about then.

<ADDED 170820>

-170813-5: Video: Hill Briefing on Climate Change and the U.S. Military’s Mission. How the U.S. Navy is Responding to Climate Change.

-170813-5.1: C.1A↑. #Linguistics. Language change has moved well beyond BioTrumpism to a specific political affiliation. AltRight, AltLeft, Antifa: A Glossary of Extremist Language. AltLight, Cuck, S.J.W., Blood and Soil, Globalism, White Genocide. I suspect that some of the terms in this article were invented by the author as concepts used by, but not the actual terminology of White Supremacists. Dog Whistles such as “cherish our history”, “heritage” “race traitor” <ADDED 170820>-170709-6.1 (refers to WASPs who are not White Supremacist), “rigged system” were not included. This Is How Trump Convinces His Supporters They’re Not Racist (2016). ⊓ This is not just an analogue ∩ for parademic or biodisaster, this is parademic and biodisaster, though the connection is not obvious. WhiteSupremacy supports agendas that are damaging to health and environment, and if allowed to continue would result in sustained armed conflict which has frequently been associated with health decline, accelerated biodisaster, famine, high mortality, cascading infrastructure collapse, increasing vulnerabilities, economic downturn, and environmental degradation, <ADDED 170813>-170730-5.2B -C. How Religious and Non-Religious People View the Apocalypse is in my opinion a false narrative equating end of the world beliefs with religion with some manipulation of statistics regarding such beliefs. -5.2↑, 170730-5.2B -C, -A↓.

-170813-6: England’s Witch Trials Were Lawful. It might seem like collective madness today, but the mechanisms for trying witches in England were enshrined in law, -1.6↑. Cotton Mather: Pioneer for Vaccines or Witch Hunter.

-170813-8: The Public Health Emergency Preparedness Landscape: Findings from the 2016 Preparedness Profile Assessment. 170806-9 et al -9.4.

-170730-5.2: <ADDED 170806>. Democrats in Congress to Explore Creating an Expert Panel on Trump’s Mental Health. Personally I would try for reform of the Electoral College to be a mechanism to assure that someone who is unqualified to be president never becomes the president, as well as more consideration of the Qualifications for the Office of President*. Presidents Can Be Impeached Because Benjamin Franklin Thought it Was Better than Assassination. In Last Shot Bid, Thousands Urge Electoral College to Block Trump at Monday Vote (2016), Republican Elector Resigns: I Couldn't Vote Trump (2016). The Founders’ Great Mistake (2009). 170220-5.4T -5.7T. Modelling Human Psychology. A person's psychological make up depends on an array of emotional and motivational parameters, such as desire, suffering or the need for security. In addition, it includes spatial and temporal dimensions that also play a key role in rationalizing the decisions we make and planning our actions. ¶ Psychological Evaluations for the U.S. Army Biological Personnel Reliability Program. Given the inherent dangers associated with working in biodefense labs, coupled with the potential for insider threat, the Department of Defense and Federal Agencies are charged with determining the most suitable and reliable personnel for work in this high risk setting. A critical component to meeting this charge are Personnel Reliability Programs which aim to ensure the safety, security, and health of personnel who work with biological select agents and toxins. Behavioral health consultants can be an asset within an interdisciplinary approach for determining personnel suitability. The following perspective, on conducting psychological evaluations for the Army’s Biological Personnel Reliability Program, is intended to provide a framework for these complex exams along with highlighting relevant procedural, policy, and legal issues. DODD 5210.42 Nuclear Weapon Personnel Reliability Program. *Security Clearances and Presidential Authority, Could Donald Trump Pass a US Citizenship Test.

-170730-7: A Global Catastrophic Biologic Risk by Any Other Name Would Smell as Sweet.

-170806-4.1: The Fight Against Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria Might Start with Vaccines. One pediatrician finds that they are frequently talking about vaccines and antibiotics in the same breath. Many of the parents he counsels want to keep their kids “all natural” and see vaccines as an unnecessary medical intervention. But when it is explained that vaccines are a tool for decreasing medical interventions, including antibiotic use, that often changes their perspective. Some parents who are reluctant to vaccinate worry about side effects, and though some kids will experience short lived, minor reactions such as swelling at the injection site, serious side effects are extremely rare. Side effects from antibiotics, including diarrhea, rashes and allergic reactions, are generally more common and severe.

-170806-6.2: Popular Pesticides Keep Bumblebees from Laying Eggs. And some people wonder why science is frustrating. What is not clear from the article is this is not about Collapse Colony Disorder, but tracing pesticides in the food chain and what impact it has on reproductive processes. In fact it states this is part of determining what the impact is. The connection of pollination is tenuous, especially for wild bumblebees. They are an efficient pollinator for a specific range of plants, and have a different ecological niche than “bees”. Neonics Put Bumblebees at Risk of Extinction by Hindering Colony Formation, reducing the chances of a bumblebee queen starting a new colony by more than a quarter. Highly Hazardous Pesticides: Policies Should Focus on Bans, Rather than Secure Storage.

-170730-5.2B -C: <ADDED 170813>. [Cartoon. This is an example of two different events that are close in time that can be combined, in this last the solar eclipse on August 21, 2017, and the crisis eclipsing resources]. Synthetic Opioid Crisis in US Serves as Warning for the World. Hopefully same situation as Furor Erupts over Killing of Teenager as Philippines Drugs War Escalates can be avoided. Some People Still Need Opioids. Why New Law Banning All Psychoactive Substances Will Be Just Another ‘War on Drugs’ Disaster.

            -A. [Photo, Cartoon, Meme, Cartoon, Cartoon, Cartoon, Cartoon, are examples of narrative_(Search), 6↑, Art, Art, Cartoon, Cartoon, repurposed, and then coming in waves] 170220-5.1B -C. There is speculation that there is a correlation between Opioids and Trump anxiety. It would be impossible to prove cause and effect, not that proof is important. More likely this is a syndemic of multiple synchonicities that resulted in acceleration. It however would not be that difficult to create a false narrative with a series of cherry picked facts, and adding the parademic hypothesis that there is a lag time between initial origins of a biodisaster until it accelerates and finally becomes noticed by people, -5.2, -170813-5.1↑. How Did the US Opioid Epidemic Start. Study Points to a 1980 Doctor's Letter on Painkiller Addiction. A Look Back at Trump's First Run in 1999. Chronic Stress, Drug Use, and Vulnerability to Addiction (2008). Donald Trump Announces Candidacy for President, June 16, 2015, in terms of parademic he started his campaign around September 2014 by taking advantage of Ebolaphobia [Tweet]. The Revenge of the 'Oxy Electorate' Helped Fuel Trump's Election Upset, Communities Most Affected by Opioid Epidemic Also Voted for Trump. Trump's Recipe for More Addiction, Lawmakers Warn Trump Cuts Could Worsen Opioid Crisis. Americans using antidepressants up 65 percent since 1999. Does Trump's 'Management by Conflict' Equal Chaos, The Chaos of the Trump Administration, in One Picture, Steve Bannon Believed in Trumpism. Donald Trump Doesn’t. Trump is losing control of his administration, and he likes it that way. ‘My Work Here Is Done’, Smiles Contented Bannon Before Bursting into Millions of Spores. The only thing that I can state for certain is that the Trump Administration is now showing accelerating indicators of an impending cascading failure, and more vulnerabilities. C.1A↑, Arts Council Members Call for Trump to Step down in Their Resignation Letter, The President’s Committee on the Arts and Humanities Resigns, Urging Resistance Against Trump. Constant Anxiety Won't Save the World. Spreading fear and worry about issues you care about on social media can lead to burnout rather than action.

            -Quote: Men under stress are fools, and fool themselves. – Michael Crichton, The Andromeda Strain, [Poster].

-170730-5.2B -C -*A: <ADDED 170813>. North Korea’s Bioweapon Program: What Do We Actually Know. North Korea’s Chemical Arsenal Complicates U.S. Options. Previously I only mentioned the conventional artillery of explosives, instead what if persistent Chemical/ Biological shells are used. DIA Director: We Are Preparing to Fight the Last War. <ADDED 170723>-170709-6B, 170226-11.

-170730-5.2B -C -B: The Political Determinants of the Cholera Outbreak in Yemen. At the end of June, 2017, UNICEF and WHO released a statement declaring that Yemen is “facing the worst cholera outbreak in the world”. The statement points out that the outbreak is caused by the civil war that began in 2015, but it does not suggest that one party is more responsible than another, simply noting that “two years of heavy conflict” have resulted in “collapsing health, water and sanitation systems”. Nor does it point to one side being more affected by the outbreak, stating that “cholera has spread to almost every governorate”. When one combines WHO's latest epidemiological data for the period April 27 to July 31, 2017, with data from Risk Intelligence that maps areas of government and rebel control, it is clear that the cholera outbreak disproportionately affects areas controlled by Houthi rebels. Normally I believe it is a worthless distraction to take the time and resources to assign blame for a biodisaster. One may feel better that it is someone else’s fault, but blame does not solve any problems. In this case blame is a method of identifying conditions that fostered the spread of cholera, so maybe those can be avoided in the future. At the same time it is already known that collapse of health infrastructure, decrease in public health and sanitation, armed conflict, economic decline, famine, conspiracy theory are all associated with outbreaks. This provides a more granular perspective of the cascading collapse that creates more vulnerabilities, that leads to acceleration of a biodisaster.

            -A. Saudi Led Coalition Responsible for 'Worst Cholera Outbreak in the World' in Yemen, the coalition attacks officially started March 2015, while the official start of the cholera outbreak was October 2016. The conditions that fostered the outbreak probably started in 2004 but what lead to that started centuries before. More accurate to say that the Saudi coalition hampers surveillance, and neutralized early detection, containment and control of the cholera outbreak. The article’s phrasing implies intent such as a bioweapon, introduction of cholera, withholding access to healthcare. Yemen Hit by 5,676 Airstrikes in Six Months, over 30 airstrikes a day.

-170730-10: Iconic Plague Images Are Often Not What They Seem. Many images that have been used traditionally to depict the Black Death are, in fact, not images of the plague at all. Now, a group of dedicated historians are trying to correct the record. Illustrates how over time what is fiction becomes accepted as fact. -6↓. Fleas Carrying Bubonic Plague Found in Arizona, 170702-6.2.

-170611-3.2: <ADDED 170813> . Four Top Cybersecurity Officials Are Leaving US Government raising concerns that an exodus of top leaders may make the federal government more vulnerable to hacking. Two of those resigning – Sean Kelley, the chief information security officer for the Environmental Protection Agency, and Richard Staropoli, the chief information officer for the Department of Homeland Security – had been in their jobs for just a few months. The other two, Rob Foster, the Navy's chief information officer, and Dave DeVries, the director of information security and privacy at the Office of Personnel Management, are departing agencies for which computer security is a top priority. DeVries assumed his job shortly after the OPM suffered the largest known cyberattack in federal government history, and Foster had served in similar positions at the Department of Health and Human Services and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. There appears to be a concerted effort to remove the career CIOs who were there during the Obama administration. The large number of still unfilled vacancies seven months into Donald Trump's tenure likely influenced the departures. The government simply doesn't move at the speed of cybersecurity. Attacks are evolving rapidly and information security leaders need the flexibility to innovate and react quickly to new threats. It'snot surprising they are leaving. If they stay and suffer a breach on their watch, their chances of transitioning into a successful civilian career later are drastically reduced, whether the breach is their fault or not. This may mean there is now more expertise available for the private sector of health care, but obviously less for government biosecurity. Disinformation: The Real Cyber Security Challenge (2012). The CISO’s Must Read Guide for Getting Through the Day. [Tweet] CYBERCOM Budget Request Focused on Elevation to Full Command (May 2017).

-170514-3: <ADDED 170806>. ‘Right to Try’ Bill Could Face Slower Action in House. Accelerated Approval Drugs: How Well Are They Studied. Flimsy Evidence Behind Many FDA Approvals. 170813-6, <ADDED 170611>,

-161204-7: <ADDED 170813>. Mylan, U.S. Finalize $465 Million EpiPen Settlement. EpiPen Maker to Settle on Claims it Overcharged Taxpayers, Agrees to Have Pricing Practices Reviewed. Settlement Finalized Between Mylan, Feds over Epipen Overcharges to Medicaid. Vader Pharmaceuticals Introduces New EpiLightsaber for Anaphylaxis.

-160626-7: <ADDED 170723>. Plastic_(Search) [Chart]. Fish Are Eating Small Bits of Plastic Because It Smells Delicious. -3.1‡↑.