Read This First (170423), Heuristics (170801), Glossary (170815), Mini Lessons (New 170827)
1. Framing Cooperation and Competition, 2. Social Connections, 3. Zoo Continuity, ↕4. Mosquito Borne, 5. Public Health Preparedness, 6. Astrocene, 7. Flu Vaccine Study, 8. Disease Names, 9. Rationalizing Soft Targets, 10. Afraid to Call It..<ADDED> 1. Religion and Reproductive Health, 2. Cuban Mystery 3. Climate Courts, 4. Climate Politics, 5. Disease Names, 6. Science Advisors, 7. Evolution Education, 8. Pseudo Medicine.
Tags: BioTrumpism, BioPolitics, Vaccine, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Climate Change, Replication, Thermodynamics, Irma, Harvey, Post Hurricane, Ebola, Donations, Anthropocene, Miscarriage, Science Ethics, Antibiotic Resistance, Evacuation, Revised History and Memory, Self Inflicted Consequences, Cyber Attacks, Attacks on Aid, Cuba Sonic Mystery, Morals, Consensus, Outer Space, Local Dialect, Myths, EPA, Hard/Soft Power, Air Pollution, Paris Accord.
-1. Cooperation Driven by Reciprocity, Not Conformity. Cooperating with others can yield benefits that increase chances of survival. Reciprocity – cooperation under the assumption that we will receive benefits in return – outweighs our desire to conform with group norms when we're deciding whether to cooperate with someone. Reciprocity Outperforms Conformity to Promote Cooperation. Though I agree with the observation, it is based on speculative evolutionary psychology, a variation of biosocial. Biosocial is the justification of social structures and behavior by citing a biological basis, making it seem to be a natural law that is outside of human influence and control, 170910-4.1. Cooperation and competition are social constructs applicable to a single self centric viewpoint. In a larger context if one is in cooperation with other it is in competition with those outside the cooperative group, and competition implies that within the competing groups there is cooperation(s). However this leaves the possibility of factions within a group that may be willing to cooperate with outsiders for competitive advantage, and that will compete with insiders for a cooperative advantage, as well as cooperation / competition being a temporary convenience or advantage where goals match. Though the explanation is erroneous, the idea that cooperation based on expectation of benefit, not simply of adherence to group norms is worth pursuing to find the deep principles involved, not a facile credible reason that falls apart with closer examination as we get into group identity and motivations. Outside the narrow frame it was developed under this isn’t a theory of predictive value, but a testable hypothesis. Biodiversity Just as Powerful as Climate Change for Healthy Ecosystems, and diversity requires whatever the blending of cooperation and competition is; 1709102, 170709-3.1 -7B -‡, 170618-3.2, 170604-4.3, 170528-3.2, 170514-1.4, 170416-4A, 170319-6.1, 170305-1.1A, 160605-2, +↓.
-1.1. A case in point related to biodisaster and parademic. Extreme Weather Has Limited Effect on Attitudes Toward Climate Policies. The relationship between exposure to extreme weather and support for climate policies is small, and fades quickly; a month after an extreme weather event the effects are small. Extreme weather is much less significant than other factors when it comes to attitudes about climate. A warming climate is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. It would seem to follow that experiencing extreme weather would make people more supportive of policies to adapt to climate change. The study suggests that may happen, but only for the short term and not to the extent that may have been expected. What is more likely is the extreme weather events will be normalized, that there will be adaptations to these conditions, but little to no popular action to mitigate the trend of warming climate due to changes in atmospheric gas ratios. Will Irma Finally Change the Way We Talk About Climate. For decades, a kind of market logic has governed the way we talk about global warming. Climate change may well be real, but the need for economic growth is much more urgent and climate action will hamper American business (perhaps even enough to delay development of new, dramatic planet saving technologies). The positive counter argument is that green energy could be a booming growth sector and massive job creator. Which, by the way, it isalready: solar employs more people today than coal, and overall clean energy accounts for more jobs than dirty in almost every state. But the negative side of things is just as important, and here the calculus is just as clear. Even in the short term, and even with cost defined in the narrowest ways, inaction on climate is likely to be devastatingly more expensive than action. That is what happens when centuries worth of natural disasters are compressed into a few decades – or a few weeks. This month of extreme weather demolishes the old economic cost paradigms. Last week, Hurricane Harvey – an “unprecedented” storm, it was said, a “thousand year flood” – became the most expensive hurricane in American history, with damage running as high as $200 billion. A week later, we are looking at an even more unprecedentedly destructive storm, with Hurricane Irma now predicted to be as high as $1 trillion -1.3*↓. -170702-10↓ | If this is true then the motivation to act is not economic gain but the potential of lost of the important things in life, With Smart Planning, Coffee and Bees Can Survive Climate Change. The news cycle of How Hurricanes Form (Video).
-‡. A Monster Surge Was Expected. Here’s Why it Never Came. E.P.A. Chief Calls Climate Change Link Insensitive <ADDED 170903-170827-8A‡> [Cartoon*A]. Hurricane Irma Left 6.5 Million Floridians Without Power. Here’s What That Looks like from Space. Pope Francis Warns “History Will Judge” Climate Change Deniers and history could be in the next couple of weeks or years; The Dalai Lama’s Planet. | Mexico Offered to Help Texas Recover from Harvey. But it Just Took Back the Offer, an example of when there is no aid available from other places because they are devastated also, or expect to soon be <ADDED 170903-170827-8B>. Mattis Heads to Mexico Amid Strain Over Disaster Condolences and Aid [Tweet]. | They Were Opioid Addicts on Their Way to Recovery. Then the Hurricane Hit, 170910-2.3. | USA Threatened by More Frequent Flooding the East Coast is slowly sinking into the sea. Testing Shows Toxins in Houston’s Floodwaters. Harvey and Irma to Slow US Growth but Rebound Should Follow. Florida Keys Facing Potential 'Humanitarian Crisis' in Irma Aftermath. Floodwater Pathogens Can’t Be Washed off of Fresh Produce. Rumor Control: Galveston's National Laboratory is Fine. Damage from Hurricane Irma Can Be Seen from Space. This [Chart] indicates the three states most impacted by Harvey and Irma have the highest numbers who are uninsured for health. This does not cause of the hurricane, but is a prior conditions that does exacerbate the negative impacts of a hurricane. The Civil War and Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Get Out of Dodge. Rapid Risk Assessment: Hurricane Irma: Risk of Communicable Diseases in the Affected Countries. Air Pollution from Industry Plagues Houston in Harvey's Wake, High Levels of Chemicals Found in Air Around Houston Refinery after EPA Told Residents Not to Worry -170813-6.1B↓ (Construction of Major Public Projects Will Be Banned in Beijing from November to March in China's War on Pollution), The Looming Superfund Nightmare, Where Do They Put All That Toxic Hurricane Debris. The Mental Health Impact of Major Disasters like Harvey and Irma. We Did Really Well: After Bracing for Disaster, Florida Hospitals Breathe Sigh of Relief. With Power Out, Many Florida Gas Stations Remain Closed. First HHS Medical Support Team Arrives in Florida Keys. <ADDED 170903-170827-8 Cont & New>. Harvey's Hit to Mortgages Could Be 4 Times Worse than Predicted, and Then There’s Irma. In Irma’s Wake, Millions of Gallons of Sewage and Wastewater Are Bubbling up Across Florida. As Flooded Houston Neighborhoods Dry Out, Residents Wonder: Are They Worth the Risk, Developers Don't Get It: Climate Change Means We Need to Retreat from the Coast, Decade of Data Shows FEMA Flood Maps Missed 3 in 4 Claims, -6.1↓, 170430-5, 170402-5, [Photo, Photo]. Grilled Cheese Cooked on Shutters. After Irma, Floridians Got Creative with Food. South Florida Schools Work to Reopen after Hurricane Irma, but Need Electricity, schools opening again is a sign of returning to normalcy. What Harvey Is Teaching the Health Care Sector about Managing Disasters . Irma and Our Age of Standardized Disaster, the most important lesson of the hurricane is how close to the margins many Americans are now living. Twice Saved From Houston Floods, but Found at Morgue.
-*A. The Laws of Cartoon Thermodynamics. Had not noticed this before. Political figures depicted in political cartoons do seem to behave as if thermodynamics don’t apply to themselves. I. Any body suspended in space will remain in space until made aware of its situation. II. Any body in motion will tend to remain in motion until solid matter intervenes suddenly. III. Any body passing through solid matter will leave a perforation conforming to its perimeter. IV. The time required for an object to fall twenty stories is greater than or equal to the time it takes for whoever knocked it off the ledge to spiral down twenty flights to attempt to capture it unbroken. V. All principles of gravity are negated by fear. VI. As speed increases, objects can be in several places at once. VII. Certain bodies can pass through solid walls painted to resemble tunnel entrances; others cannot. VIII. Any violent rearrangement of matter is impermanent. IX. Everything falls faster than an anvil. X. Guns, no matter how powerful, or no matter where aimed, will do nothing more than char flesh. XI. Any given amount of explosives will propel a body miles away, but still in one piece. Political Thermodynamics. Bill Nye Wants Fox News to Get Real About Climate Change.
-B. A Florida Assisted Care Facility Sheltered in Place for Irma. Then the Power Went Out. For Three Days. The utility company apparently had not had the facility listed as a medical provider, and if Jose hits will power be taken out again or cause an even longer delay before being restored. Death Toll Rises to 8 at Fla. Nursing Home Where Irma Knocked out Power, Florida Nursing Home Where Eight Deaths Occurred Had Repeat Safety Violations, after Tragedy at Fla. Nursing Home, Advocates Say New Rule Protecting Residents Doesn’t Go Far Enough, Nursing Home Says Calls for Help Went Unanswered but State Disputes Claims, Florida Governor Issues Emergency Rules for Nursing Homes after Deaths. Florida Governor Has Ignored Climate Change Risks, Critics Say, Another Day, Another Law Broken by Rick Scott (2011), *C↓. Trump Wants to Deny Nursing Home Residents and Their Families the Right to Sue (Jun), Under Trump Rule, Nursing Home Residents May Not Be Able to Sue after Abuse (Aug 21 Irma hit Sep 10). ¶ Natural Disasters, like Hurricanes, Exacerbate Dangers for Domestic Abuse Victims and other shelter / evacuation / return problems. How Harvey Made it Harder to Evacuate for Irma, Rethinking Disaster Evacuation. Hurricane Katrina Left Survivors Vulnerable to Sexual Assault. Here’s How to Protect Irma Evacuees, 170910-2.4. | Getting Evacuations Right – in Time for the Next One. Many scientists now study topics they never considered early in their careers, their new interests brought on by the changing climate. I, for example, never expected to review the literature on evacuating people from natural disasters. As a nuclear scientist, I started looking at evacuations to understand what could happen if a nuclear reactor were to have a catastrophic meltdown in the US. After Disaster Strikes, Science Often Benefits, hurricanes, droughts, oil spills, wildfires are natural labs for research, <ADDED 170806-170514-3 -‡>, 160731-4.3, Natural Experiment & Natural Lab(Search). | When Hurricane Warnings Are Lost in Translation. One problem that I have yet to see addressed is what to do if there needs to be evacuation and shelters at the same time as an infectious disease outbreak, or if an outbreak occurs in a shelter. In the situation of forced evacuations due to an epidemic there needs to be medical stations along routes to treat people, provide vaccines or prophylactic medicines if available, and if necessary quarantine or isolate individuals. Irma Evacuation Nightmare: next Time Some May Not Leave. Officials Tell Returning Keys Residents They must Be Self Sustaining.
-*C. This is another frustrating characteristic of biodisaster. It may be years before the damage appears, making it difficult to link to cause, of there may be continued mortality from a bioevent for years later. Worse is when has been a known, on going problem, where no effective action was taken. Sept. 11 First Responder Fights on Behalf of Others Who Rushed to Help, Are Kids Exposed to 9/11 Dust Really at Risk for Heart Problems, 9/11’s Second Wave: Cancer and Other Diseases Linked to the 2001 Attacks Are Surging, Ohio Man's Death Part of Ongoing Toll of 9/11 Attacks, -1.2A, -2.1↓; or even if or what happened -170827-2.1>2↓. ¶ Superbug Bacteria Gang up on Us, Fueled by Antibiotic Use, Nursing Home Study Suggests. Understanding the ecosystem of multidrug resistant bacteria, and how antibiotics affect them, could lead to better infection prevention. What's worse than getting exposed to a kind of bacteria that modern antibiotics can't kill. Getting exposed to more than one – because they may work together to cause an infection, new research suggests. And trying different antibiotics to control one such 'superbug' may only encourage others. The researchers say it's time to think about such bacteria as members of an antibiotic resistant ecosystem in healthcare environments – not as single species that act and respond alone.
-1.2. Historic Legacies Affect Climate Change Survival in Caribbean. The legacies of empire have increased the vulnerability of Caribbean states to climate change. Discussion of climate change has failed to pay enough attention to the social, political and historic factors which increase the vulnerability of Caribbean societies, and calls for a new approach focused on understanding and addressing these historic inequalities. -6.1, -170702-10↓.
-A. New Orleans Greenery Post Katrina Reflects Social Demographics More than Hurricane Impact. Popular portrayals of nature reclaiming civilization in flood damaged New Orleans, Louisiana, neighborhoods romanticize an urban ecology shaped by policy driven socioecological disparities in redevelopment investment, [Photo]. This points to disparities in post Katrina evaluations and statistics. There seem to be six distinct collection periods. In Biodisaster terms these are before acceleration (antecedents), during acceleration (the bioevent), post deceleration (immediate aftermath), first recovery (after), second aftermath (post recovery), and the as yet not reached final outcome (return to previous conditions that lead to disaster, equilibrium, and abandonment in either a physical or social sense). There also seems to be two options on how the data is framed, successful recovery (usually from the biodisaster), and unsuccessful recovery (usually from the parademic). Socioecological Disparities in New Orleans Following Hurricane Katrina. [Photo, Photo]. Gentrification by Flood: Welcome to "New" New Orleans. Houston’s Anything Goes Business Model under Siege after Harvey. As post hurricane Houston dries out, cracks are appearing. Harvey’s floods exposed the clash between two visions: Business leaders say the sprawling, economically vibrant metropolis shouldn’t change its hands off approach to planning. Environmentalists and disaster experts warn that Houston is courting a repeat catastrophe. The next storm could be still more destructive. But protection means rules, and rules go against Houston’s ethos. The Aftermath of the Aftermath: Hurricanes Stretch Safety Net and Providers. -1.1*C↑.
-1.3. Trump Promises $1 Million of Personal Funds to Aid Harvey Victims. If Trump is going to be equitable about contributing his personal money for disaster relief in terms of projected costs, then he will be contributing 1000 Million, or 1 Billion Dollars* **, for Irma [Tweet]. Small change compared to Trump's Wall Could Cost $67B, or in excess of 350 Billion to the world economy if there is a war with North Korea. Interesting; a localized nuclear exchange is less costly than a modern natural disaster. <ADDED 170903>-170827-8. Experts Report $37 Amount of Money You Need to Donate to Hurricane Relief in Order to Completely Forget about it. Trump Says We’ve Had “Bigger” Hurricanes. Experts Say It’s Not That Simple, [Tweet].
-*. These figures are based on avenging estimates of 200 Billion for Harvey (while still stalled over Houston), 1 Trillion -1.1↑ of Irma. Estimating the costs of damage, insurance, loss of life, property, long term, loss of productivity, economic impact, private property repair, loss of import and exports, short term, infrastructure, recovery, delayed projects, diverted assets, and more, can take five or more years to estimate the final costs. Estimates will vary wildly depending on focus, geographic area considered, what one wants to downplay (unimportant), and what one wants to emphasize (important). It will likely be a year or more before it is determined if Trump does or does not make good on his total pledge. Irma Damage Expected to Reach $18B in U.S., Far less than Expected, but same as one guess about travel ban costs. Are Catastrophic Disasters Striking More Often. ¶ Irma Wrecks Tourist Spots in Caribbean, Spares Disney, but then Disney World is designed to withstand hurricanes, Can Disney World’s Cinderella Castle Withstand Hurricane Irma Winds. They Made Fun of Him for Building a Fortress; Then He Survived Hurricane Irma. Construction Cranes Will Not Be Upgraded. No one died, therefore ... nothing will be done. Three Cranes at South Florida Construction Sites Have Snapped in Irma’s Howling Winds. Tampa Bay’s Escape from Irma Was More than Luck, Some Say. Experts worry that myths will make people complacent about the danger of hurricanes -7↓.
-**. Can You Track the Ebola Funding from Pledge to Delivery. For aid transparency information to be useful, we need not just information on funding, but also needs to include information about where the funds are used and what they intend to deliver. Trump's $1 Million Harvey Relief Donation Will Be Split among 12 Charities. Here’s How Much of Your Hurricane Harvey Donation Money Actually Goes Towards Victims. Red Cross Exec Doesn't Know What Portion of Donations Go to Harvey Relief. Harvey Disaster Relief Donation Rumors. Historically Trump’s record has been not been to follow through, Still No Charity Money from Leftover Trump Inaugural Funds.
-1.4. White House Seeks to Avoid Quitting Paris Deal, Climate Officials Say, U.S. Still Out of Paris Climate Agreement, Despite Conflicting Reports, Tillerson: Trump Open to Paris Climate Deal under 'Right Conditions', EU Sees U.S Re❚Engaged in Paris Deal; White House Says No Change, Confusion Continues: The United States' Position on the Paris Climate Agreement. This is consistent with an incoherent policy, unclear goals, incompetence, inability to keep staff informed and coordinated, too small staff, confusions, habitual lying. Or; it can be a sophisticated management method, Trump Can Surprise World by Using Hard and Soft Power Equally, 170402-7.1AQuote. To work hard/soft requires centralized control (dictatorship); Fear to the point that to not feel fear is to be even more fearful and uncertainty, 'He Cut Your Heart Out': Trump's Anger Proves Memorable; Control / distortion of information, diffusion of responsibility, Orwellian, secrecy and mistrust within and between government bodies, non government institutions and the general population Cronyism, nepotism, tribalism (usually meaning corruption), Holding Federal Institutions Accountable Becoming Harder. These all are apt descriptions of Trumpism and parademic that happens during or leading to an accelerated biodisaster, i.e. BioTrumpism, which likewise accelerates with the problems becoming harder to solve over time, with more misdirected, pyrrhic and draconian efforts. Similar to a biodisaster where containment and control may mean causing as much harm as the biodisaster itself, especially if efforts are delayed.
-2. Tweet Life Vs. Street Life: Exploring the Gap Between Content, Feelings. Twitter is an unreliable witness to the world's emotions. There is no evidence that social media content shared on Twitter is a truthful reflection of how its users feel (except possibly at that specific moment). Twitter users have developed their own unique cultural behaviour, conversations and identities, which shape the ways in which they present their views online. Social convention, power relationships and identity influence online conversation just as much as off line interactions, but in ways that are not yet fully understood. The hope that information derived from social media to forecast and predict mass behavior is a tantalizing one, but so far does not seem to be replicable or consistent. Typo Accidentally Sends Doc to PubeMed Website, Not PubMed.
-2.1. Part of the issue is that social media does not provide enough personal connection to develop the social construct of empathy. In more direct social interactions where there are multiple channels of connections, the frequency and/or intense makes it necessary to create emotional distance for some interactions. For example in disaster management span of control is 3 to 7 people, with greater complexity and stress tending toward the smaller span of control. I assume a medical professional has at least an equal level of stress and complexity, with the added complication of direct human contact that is intense, frequent, and in multiples, with a lack of time to build rapport. Study Challenges Perception That Empathy Erodes During Medical School. The relationship between a doctor and patient relies heavily on the capacity to empathize with or be sensitive to a each others emotional state, (the responsibility should not be totally placed on the heath provider). Empathy has been associated with patients' increased adherence to treatment, fewer malpractice complaints, improved patient satisfaction and favorable health outcomes. There is an interaction of two facets of empathy: cognitive and affective. Cognitive empathy is the ability to recognize and understand another person's experience, to communicate and confirm that understanding, and to act in an appropriate and helpful manner without necessarily sharing his or her emotions. Affective, or emotional, empathy is being attuned to someone else's emotions, feeling what he or she feels. The overall decline of empathy during medical training is questioned. Changes in empathy during medical training are not necessarily negative – the narrative appears to be much more complicated than we initially thought and illustrates how problematic it is to rely on a single, subjective measure to evaluate a complex psychological construct. Improvement may be explicit training in empathy, but that may become greater ability to game tests of empathy without actual performance of empathy. ¶ Again we encounter context giving meaning, or empathy, probably better explained non-verbally via Art than words. Americans' Sustained Fear from 9/11 Has Turned into Something More Dangerous. How 9/11 Permanently Changed Us. -1.1*B↑. Who Empathizes with Machiavellian or Narcissistic Leaders, other Machiavellians and narcissists.
-A. Empathy is in no way a panacea for poor medical-patient relations. Medical quacks are renowned for the ability to display faked emotions of caring, to the point that their victims will come to their defense when legal charges are made. Naturopaths and Quack Stem Cell Clinics Revisited. Last week, I wrote about a naturopath imitating the worst of real doctors by running his very own dubious stem cell clinic. He even cosplays an interventional radiologist doing it. Unfortunately, he's far from alone. There are many more naturopaths going down this road. Even more unfortunately, it is MDs who are showing the way. Basically, naturopaths don't just cosplay doctors. They cosplay the worst of doctors as well. [Badge, Photo].
-3. When Disaster Strikes, the Zoo Must Go On. Zoo nutritionists have the Herculean task of feeding thousands of charges, come hurricane, tornado or terrorist attack. Note the similarities to a city or hospital that is cut off from supplies due to a biodisaster. ‘It Ain’t Our First Rodeo’: Orlando’s Gatorland Promises its Critters Won’t Get Free During Irma. People Who Abandoned Pets During Hurricane Irma Will Face Felony Charges. Why Not Go to a Hurricane Shelter. Two Reasons: the Boat and the Dog.
↕4. Infectious Mosquitoes Are Turning up in New Regions. A mounting number of citations on a popular disease tracking website suggests that mosquitoes may be moving into new ecological niches with greater frequency. The website, ProMED mail, has carried more than a dozen such reports since June, all involving mosquito species known to transmit human diseases. I’ve used ProMED for years to identify disease events and environmental conditions to monitor. The vast majority come to nothing, not even a mention that it ended. Because the site in clinically oriented rather than behavior it has been years since I have noted in Parademic. However while I was a regional pandemic planner I recommended to the supported commands to monitor this site. The reasons were twofold. One, to be aware of outbreaks in their area, and secondly to learn that these are pretty constant and one does not need to panic over each report. Mosquitoes, Carbon Monoxide and Chemicals Are Big Post Irma Health Concerns.
-4.1. Texas Calls in US Air Force to Counter Post Storm Surge in Mosquitoes. Texas has launched aerial attacks on mosquitoes swarming coastal regions of the state and threatening to spread disease and hinder disaster recovery in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. [Photo, Map].
-5. Public Health Preparedness Funding: Key Programs and Trends from 2001 to 2017. To evaluate trends in funding over the past 16 years for key federal public health preparedness and response programs at the US Department of Health and Human Services, to improve understanding of federal funding history in this area, and to provide context for future resource allocation decisions for public health preparedness. State and local preparedness at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention initially received $940 million in FY2002 and resulted in significant preparedness gains, but funding levels have since decreased by 31%. Similarly, the Hospital Preparedness Program within the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response was funded at a high of $515 million in FY2003, but funding was reduced by 50%. Investments in medical countermeasure development and stockpiling remained relatively stable. While the United States has made significant progress in preparing for disasters and advancing public health infrastructure. To enable continued advancement, federal funding commitments must be sustained. This agrees with the data in Parademic which indicates defunding, misdirected efforts, and decreasing preparedness for a biodisaster. Both data sets are correct, but the different framing, time periods, what funding is measured, and the presentation of statistics presented slightly different conclusions. Specifically Human participant protection was not required because no human subjects were involved in this budget review, is a data skew. By not considering humans as a factor in costs one creates a financial spreadsheet, not an assessment of preparedness. This is akin to MOP based on say delivery of water bottles, as opposed to MOE that asks if the water is needed. About APHA. The History and Current Reality of the U.S. Health Care System. My hope is that we can find agreement on basic facts that can help us lay the groundwork for developing solutions. In the private sector, successful businesses tenaciously follow a well defined problem solving process that concentrates on facts, defining reality, employing root cause analysis, and developing consensus -9↓. There are obvious examples of industries and government that are exceptions to this. Unfortunately, in politics, demagoguery and exploiting divisions are too often the coin of the realm. The State of American Health Care, in 5 Charts. How Congress Ignored Science and Fueled Antibiotic Resistance, #Book 170910-10. The U.S. Thought it Was Rid of Hookworm. Wrong.
-6. ∩ Lessons from the Stars: How to Live on a Climate Changed World. The non stop, never seen before hurricanes of the last few weeks have given us a glimpse of what a climate changed world will look like for humanity. If it seems like a scary vision, you should know that we're only at the very beginning of this wild ride. Things are likely going to get harder as in, Earth as a Hybrid Planet: The Anthropocene in an Evolutionary Astrobiological Context. Astrobiology is the study of life and its possibilities in a generic, planetary context; + The Anthropocene is the name given to this new epoch the Earth is entering where human activity is a dominant driver of planetary behavior; = What if Earth's entry into the Anthropocene represents an astrobiologically predictable planetary transition. What if almost any planet that evolves an energy intensive industrial / technological civilization pushes its planet into an Anthropocene shift. Those exo civilizations making it further through their Anthropocenes into long term sustainability should have predicable properties. ¶ Planets are basically nature's way of turning starlight into something interesting. That's why our new scheme was based on what's called non equilibrium thermodynamics. We focused on how energy flowed through the planetary systems of atmosphere, ocean, ice, rock and life in the form of a biosphere. The idea was to see how a planet's ability to harness sunlight to make interesting things happen changed as it evolved. Then we could use this understanding to see what a biosphere that evolved a sustainable civilization would look like. This classification system is composed of five levels: Class I: Planets without an atmosphere. The ability of the planet to change and evolve is severely limited. (Mercury or Earth's moon). Class II: Planets with atmospheres but no life forms (Venus and Mars). The flow of gases and fluids lead to change and evolution in the form of climate and weathering but nothing else is possible. Class III: Planets with a "thin" biosphere that might sustain some biological activity, but it does not affect the planet as a whole. No current examples of Class III planets exist in the solar system. Class IV: Planets with a "thick" biosphere strongly affecting the flow of energy through the rest of the planetary systems (Earth). These planets co evolve with their biospheres as life dominates many of the processes happening between the surface and the upper atmosphere. Class V: Planets in which an energy intensive technological species establishes a sustainable form of cooperation with the biosphere that increases the productivity of both. On these planets the civilization enhances the ability of the biosphere to innovate and evolve. We already know these as anthropogenic biomes [Map], we just don’t know what the outcome will be. ¶ Alarming Study Indicates Why Certain Bacteria Are More Resistant to Drugs in Space. Why Bacteria in Space Are Surprisingly Tough to Kill. It’s Time to Loosen Planetary Protection Rules for Mars. The problem of biocontamination beyond Earth is one that has been considered for years, World in a Bottle (1960), and The War of the Worlds, Book Two, Chapter Ten Epilogue (1897).
-6.1. New Climate Risk Classification Created to Account for Potential 'Existential' Threats. Models of future climate scenarios has led to the creation of the new risk categories dangerous, catastrophic and unknown to characterize the range of threats posed by rapid global warming. | Dangerous global warming includes consequences such as increased risk of extreme weather and climate events ranging from more intense heat waves, hurricanes, and floods, to prolonged droughts. Could trigger tipping points such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and subsequent global sea level rise, and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest. | Catastrophic climate change is marked by deadly heat waves becoming commonplace, exposing over 7 billion people to heat related mortalities and famine becoming widespread. Furthermore, the changes will be too rapid for most to adapt to, particularly the less affluent. | Unknown risks imply existential (mass extinction) threats to the survival of humanity. Unknown are consequences beyond catastrophic including potentially existential threats. The specter of existential threats is raised to reflect the grave risks to human health and species extinction from warming beyond 5° C, which has not been experienced for at least the past 20 million years. Warming probability of five percent or less is a low probability/high impact scenario. Five percent probability high impact event, may be dismissed, but it is equivalent to a one in 20 chance the plane you are about to board will crash (actual odds a 1 in 11 million). We would never get on that plane with a one in 20 chance of it coming down but we are willing to send our children and grandchildren on that plane. Former FEMA Chief: It’s Not about Climate Change Anymore, It’s about Climate Adaptation, -1.1‡, -1.2A↑, -170702-10↓. Avoiding Dangerous to Catastrophic Climate Change.
-7. New Study Finds Link Between Flu Vaccine and Miscarriage. But Is it Real. Splashed across the web today were headlines connecting the flu vaccine to miscarriage. The “hint of a possible link” in a new study would likely lead to questions about the safety of the vaccine. Edward Belongia, the last author of the paper, is a widely respected influenza researcher. The study’s place of publication, Vaccine, is a top notch specialty journal. But the small scale study, which found a slightly higher chance of miscarriage in women who received a flu vaccine 2 years in a row that included a specific strain of the virus, is littered with “possible,” “may,” and “could.” The researchers themselves stress the “important” limitations of the new work. Among them, in the authors’ own words: This interaction effect was not an a priori hypothesis; the results were generated in a post hoc analysis with small numbers of women in the various subgroups. The statistical confidence intervals were wide. The “biological basis for our observations has not been established. The cases were significantly older than controls. Miscarriage becomes more common in women over 35 years old. ¶ One large previous study with the main component of the vaccine that’s linked to miscarriage found a significantly reduced risk of miscarriage. In that study of nearly 40,000 pregnant women – more than 9000 of whom were vaccinated before or during pregnancy – the risk of fetal loss was roughly half that of the unvaccinated group. Study Shows Miscarriage Risk May Have Increased after Flu Shots, Puzzling Researchers. The new finding raises a lot of questions and is sure to provoke concern among pregnant women, who may be tempted to forgo vaccinations. But experts and even the authors themselves caution that this result is far from conclusive. In fact, they aren’t clear if the finding is actually real or the product of some unobserved statistical fluke. But what you find, you have to publish – at least when the finding raises the kind of questions this research does. It’s disconcerting. It’s not a message that we welcome or want. But it is what we found, and we have an obligation to let people know about that. A New Finding of a Possible Flu Shot Miscarriage Link Shows Science Prioritizes Vaccine Safety. Study Prompts Call to Examine Flu Vaccine and Miscarriage. Does the Flu Vaccine Cause Miscarriages. The Risks and Benefits of Repeated First Trimester Influenza Vaccination Against Pandemic H1N1. One of the cornerstones of pregnancy management, stemming from the unequivocally heightened risk of this condition for severe influenza, has been to routinely immunize all pregnant women against influenza. The influenza vaccine has been shown in multiple studies not to confer any increased risk to the pregnancy. A new study in which the rate of miscarriage was found to increase subsequent to first trimester vaccination against particular strains of the virus, is likely to spark policy discussions regarding this practice. Given the uncertainties of the current CDC on policy the August 30, 2017 version of Pregnant Women & Influenza (Flu) may change based on this single study. Study Signals Association Between Flu Vaccine, Miscarriage. Besides the ambivalence of the data, there is also the uncertainty if it is simply a reflection that older mothers are more likely to miscarry, that all mothers for this particular vaccine are more likely to miscarry, of that all mothers for all flu vaccines are likely to miscarry. The Influenza Vaccine and Miscarriages: Much Ado about Nothing.
-A. Myths about Vaccines Are Hard to Dispel. Nothing new except it is in the WSJ, which rarely publishes anything about vaccine, and what little it does is related to business or investment -1.3*↑. Either way the outlier study will be picked up by anti-vaccine Another Antivaccine Conspiracy Theory, Flu Vaccine Edition. Vaccination Rates among Younger Siblings of Children with Autism. Families with children who had autism spectrum disorder were less likely to vaccinate subsequent children. Parents who had an older child with autism spectrum disorder retrospectively reported (that is reframed reconstructed memories, also knows as confabulation or revisionist history) a higher rate of adverse reactions to vaccination among the older child than did those who did not have an older child with autism.
-B. Is an Occasional Drink OK During Pregnancy. During the nine months of pregnancy, many pregnant women have wondered – would one or two glasses of wine really put my baby at risk. Unfortunately, researchers still don't know for sure. But a new review of several existing studies hints that small amounts of alcohol may slightly boost the risk of premature birth and low birth weight. No, Scientists Did Not Say Light Drinking During Pregnancy Was Okay.
-7.1. Scientists Question Study about Plastic Eating Caterpillars. Do the larvae of the wax moth really solve the world's plastic problem. Sensational report of biochemical degradation of polyethylene by caterpillars not confirmed. The Very Hungry Plastic Eating Caterpillar, [Cover].
-7.2. Every Childhood Vaccine May Go into a Single Jab. Anti-vax who base their belief on the idea that too many vaccines are administered in too short of a time period would be against this. One could argue that though there is only a single shot of multiple vaccines, because of the time release they are in fact stretched out over time and only one at a time. Vaccine and Booster Shot Delivered Together in Degradable Cubes.
-8. #Linguistics. This Algorithm Generates Crazy and Terrifying Disease Names. When an AI Invents Diseases, You End Up With 'Penis Arthritis'. Scary sounding, futuristic diseases are a time honored trope of science fiction. But if you're short on ideas, a friendly neural network can help you invent a condition that's adequately unnerving—as long as you give it enough time to learn what sounds diseasey. the algorithm essentially settled on creating four different kinds of disease names. The first group were all based on body parts (like ear or lower right abdomen) or the names of other diseases (cysts of the biles and swollen inflammation). The second category, according are reasonably convincing. This includes things like hemopheritis or osteomaroxism. The third category were that are implausible but serious like cancer of the cancer or super syndrome. Finally the fourth category was comprised of sexually explicit disorders and included profanity. What is of parademic interest is that this has nothing to do with how human’s name diseases. That would require an algorithm that include place names (who would have guessed that the Ebola river would be so terrifying); Where identified (Spanish Flu, where it did not originate); discover’s name (Hansen’s disease replacing Leprosy, which was also done to remove stigma, 170220-2.1); Wtate of medical science (names changing as knowledge changes); To intentionally cause fear (especially if the cause is unknown); Make something sound sciencey (as done by medical scam bags; or, To just give the allure of arcane specialized technical knowledge (Latin and Greek). 170827-5.4, <ADDED 170820-170806-6.2>, 170806-6 -9.1. Patient Goes on Tangent About Sines & Cosines.
-8.1. The Refugee Doctors Learning to Speak Glaswegian. When people say, “I had a couple of beers, they don't mean two”, jokes instructor training refugees to work for NHS Scotland, providing the doctors advanced English lessons, medical classes and placements with GPs or hospitals, and how to overcome cultural barriers. One of the students had previously worked as a surgeon in the Middle East until forced to flee. Having treated anti-government protesters, she became a government target -9↓. Coming to the UK and not being able to work as a surgeon had felt like being "handcuffed". "I'm a qualified medical doctor. It's hard to start again from zero". | It is important for the UK to utilise its high skilled refugees, whose clinical skills are very similar to those of doctors trained in the UK. It would be a hugely wasted resource if people who'd already gone through medical training were not used as doctors. | Taking out an appendix in Peshawar is not that different to taking out an appendix in Paisley, but there is a huge difference is attitudes to patients and how medicine is performed. For a surgeon that means learning to speak to patients. Previously they only encountered patients after they had been put to sleep.
-9. In Their Own Words: Why Armed Fighters Attack Aid Workers. In the first study of its kind, researchers ask members of al-Shabab, the Haqqani network and the Taliban to explain why they attack the humanitarians trying to help them. 1) Some of the fighters accuse aid groups of acting as spies or having a political agenda. 2) Some think humanitarian aid is a tool to subjugate or humiliate people. 3) Others believe that aid groups want to enforce Western ideology and are anti-Islam. 4) harming aid workers is seen as a perk for younger members who aren't paid regularly. None of these answers are like the western framing that these attacks are to make people more fearful, cut off aid and support to people, and are low risk weak soft targets(Search) that can’t protect themselves: -8.1↑, 170827-11, 170806-1, <ADDED 170702-170611-3.2>, 170611-3.2, 170423-5, 170305-5.2, 170115-2.2, 160918-7A, 160821-8.1, 160320-11, ↓+. ¶ Behavior Is Considered More Moral the More Common it Is. Our view of what is morally right and wrong has strong similarities with social conformity, in that we tend to adapt ourselves to the people around us and how they behave. This means that changes in our social environment can quickly alter our moral compass. As a speculation this may not be limited to active behavior, but spoken behavior, or bias fallacy, the old excuse “but everyone does it”. Argumentum ad Populum, if many (or Trumpism) believe so, it is so. False Consensus Effect, tendency to overestimate the extent to which personal opinions, beliefs, preferences, values, and habits are normal and typical of those of others. The difference with Scientific Consensus is: it doesn't claim to be true, it claims to be the best understanding currently held by those who study the matter. Scientific claims are always tentative rather than final. Scientific consensus is built upon a foundation of logic and systematic evidence - the scientific method - rather than popular prejudice, -5↑, -170702-10↓, <ADDED 170910-170730-5.2A.
-‡. Red Cross Worker Slain in Afghanistan: All She Wanted to Do Was Help. Attacks Against Aid Workers Add Complexity to Disaster Response Training. March 10, 1993, Dr. David Gunn Is Murdered by Anti-Abortion Activist. Attacks on Health Facilities and Health Workers: Time for the Security Council to Act. HHS Warns of Terrorist Attacks on Hospitals, [Tweet]. The New Barbarianism: Trailer (Video), RSVP for The New Barbarianism – Film Premiere Event, Sep 18.
-A. Though media focus is on the more glamorous, attention getting events of armed attacks on hospitals and health care workers (unless they happen all the time then media interest drops), there are more subtle, more sophisticated, and more damaging attacks. The article pointed out that some measures to protect themselves from attack actually increase mistrust and chances of attack. Covert attacks can include: cutting off water, limiting fuel or other power, damaging vehicles, disrupting supply, causing workers unrest and dissatisfaction with employment, impersonal patient interactions, not paying or low salaries, starting rumors about vaccines or deaths, promotion of medical scams, creating uncertainty about insurance, long working hours, unnecessary medical tests, unrealistic expectations, poor management decisions, defunding research, defunding global health care, revealing health status, or the threat that one may be arrested for seeking medical care and police overstepping boundaries <ADDED 170910>-170903-10>. Many of these are self inflicted damage. There are also minor cyber attacks such as changing appointment times, preventing emails from being sent out, critical time DNS, changing prescriptions or other medical records, fake billing, changing medical supply orders or arrival times, limited computer shut downs such as causing problems with only a few computers, increasing work load on other computers. These can be particularly effective if they are not identified as a cyber attack but blamed on human error, IT’s fault, or a glitch in the system. Netwar: The Unwelcome Militarization of the Internet Has Arrived. How Agriculture Came to Be a Political Weapon – and What That Means for Farmers. How a Warm Winter Destroyed 85 Percent of Georgia’s Peaches.
-10. As the Death Toll Climbs in Sudan, Officials Shy Away from the 'Cholera' Label. The State Department and USAID are related agencies, both reporting to the secretary of state, but there is an odd disconnect in how they have described a looming public health emergency in the African country of Sudan. The embassy declared that there were confirmed reports of cholera that have killed people, whereas USAID, citing the World Health Organization and the Sudanese government, said there were cases of acute watery diarrhea. This is not just biotrumpism, but a continuation of a muting the danger trend that began with the 2009 Flu Pandemic. Epidemics are now outbreaks, Pandemics are now epidemics. Ongoing Outbreak with Well over 4,000 Measles Cases in Italy from January to End August 2017 − What Is Making Elimination So Difficult, to me 4000 cases of a highly infectious disease, covering a large geographic area that is spilling into other countries is at least an epidemic. Maybe there will be a new word created such as megademic, gigademic, or a tremendously yuge flu season. Pandemics, Politics and the Spanish Flu. One of the worst plagues in human history is largely forgotten now. For our own sakes, it’s time to remember what happened. #Book Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World [Cover, Icon]. 100 Years after the Lethal 1918 Flu Pandemic, We Are Still Vulnerable.
-170910-2.4A>1. Abortion Access in Missouri Is Getting Easier, Thanks to Planned Parenthood and Satanists. For the past several years, Planned Parenthood and other women’s health clinics in Missouri have been targeted by restrictions that forced abortion providers to get admitting privileges at nearby hospitals and retrofit their facilities to meet surgical center standards. Those laws eventually became common goals of anti-abortion legislators around the country. A federal judge sided with Planned Parenthood in April and blocked officials from continuing to enforce the two anti-abortion provisions in Missouri. Now four clinics are working to get licensed for abortion care in the state. This rapid turnaround makes the state an illustration of the best case scenario when courts reverse abortion restrictions. Other states aren’t so lucky. Often, such restrictions cause abortion providers to close completely, especially if the clinics aren’t affiliated with larger national organizations such as Planned Parenthood, which can provide some measure of stability as regulations shift. And when a clinic shuts down, there’s no guarantee that it’ll reopen once the restrictions that caused its closure fall away. Missouri’s recent stroke of good fortune in the reproductive rights realm may have to do with intervention from the fiery underworld. On Monday, the Satanic Temple argued in a Missouri court that the state’s abortion restrictions violate worshippers’ rights to free religious practice. The organization is challenging two Missouri laws: one that requires patients to look at unscientific anti-abortion propaganda and another that forces them to wait 72 hours between their initial consultations and a second appointments for their abortions. Satanic Temple members argue that their religion prizes rational, independent thought and that forcing Satanists to read anti-abortion pamphlets and “consider a religious proposition with which they do not agree” during the 72 hour waiting period constitutes a violation of their beliefs. [Poster].
-170827-2.1>2. <ADDED 170903> 1.1*C↑. Cuba Mystery Grows: New Details on What Befell US Diplomats, Cuba Mystery: Even Castro Baffled by Harm to US Diplomats, Mystery after Mystery: Potent ‘Health Attacks’ on U.s. Diplomats in Cuba Baffle Experts. The mystery leads to Top US Diplomat Says Closing Embassy in Cuba ‘Under Review’, which so far has been code for “decision made”, building suspense and finding a way to accomplish with little fuss.
-170827-8*A Cont.>3. [Cartoon] ⊓ As Hurricanes and Wildfires Rage, US Climate Politics Enters the Realm of Farce. Harvey Aid Bill Also Aims to Ease Financial Pressure for Agencies Fighting Wildfires. Two closely linked biodisasters that don’t appear connected. Same as flood and drought are connected.
-170813-6.1B>4. <ADDED 170910>, -1.1‡↑. The Judicial Branch Is Our Best Hope for Climate Action under Trump. Environmental Groups Win Court Battle over Approach to Climate Analysis of Coal Mining. EPA Will Reconsider Obama Era Safeguards on Coal Waste, House Passes Spending Bill ‘Full of Giveaways to Polluters’ and Big Cuts to EPA. Rename EPA the Environmental Pollution Agency.
-170806-8A>5. <ADDED 170813>. Map: Where Western Wildfires Have Made the Air Outside Too Dangerous to Breathe. Particulates from smoke have drastically impacted air quality in areas of several states. [Map]. I'm a Woman Who Fought Wildfires for 7 Years. Climate Change Is Absolutely Making Them Worse. Water Supply, Quality in US West Affected by Increased Wildfire Caused Erosion. Firefighters Stretched Thin as Historic Wildfire Season Drags on. How the Forest Service Helped Shape Our Nation's Disaster Preparedness Framework.
-170702-10>6. <ADDED 170709>, -1.1, -9↑. Who's Home at the White House Science and Technology Office. Today, as Hurricane Irma has finally fizzled out and response and recovery efforts for it and Hurricane Harvey ramp up (and Jose twirls menacingly out over the Atlantic), an Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP*) official says it is still heavily engaged in these processes. But the office has been radically transformed under the Trump administration: The current staffing level is only 42, down from over 130 during the Obama years, and the president has put forward no nominee for its director. Even if the remaining staff is working diligently to aid in disaster preparedness, it is likely that all that work has little if any connection to the president’s inner circle. *Responsible to make sure the best information was being used to prepare for government response to disasters, be they storms or oil spills or West African disease outbreaks. Trump Administration Will Waste Billions by Disregarding Science in Hurricane Recovery. ¶ Designing a Post Harvey Houston for the Future. Being honest about the extent and urgency of the Houston-Galveston region’s flooding problem will not harm the community but will form the basis for recovery. Denying fundamental truths and moving forward with business as usual will be the economic death knell for the Houston region. Make no mistake about it — how we respond to this horrible reality will determine the economic future of our region. How to Build Hurricane Proof Cities, Harvey Recovery Czar Faces Limits to ‘Future Proofing’ Texas. -1.1‡, -1.2A, -6.1↑.
-170625-2*A>7. Uproar in Turkey over Removing Evolution from Biology Class. Students in Turkey are returning to school Monday where they will be taught evolution for the last time in their biology classes. Next fall, evolution and Charles Darwin will be scrapped from their textbooks. Turkey has announced a “values based” overhaul of more than 170 topics in the country’s school curriculum, including removing all direct references to evolution from high school biology classes. The upcoming changes have caused uproar, with critics calling them a reshaping of education along the conservative, Islam oriented government’s line. Opposition parties and unions have organized protests against the changes, demanding that Turkey provide a scientific, secular education for its students. Lawmakers have also opposed the new curriculum in parliament. Turkey Rolls out New School Curriculum - Without Darwin, Turkey’s New Curriculum: More Erdoğan, More Islam. One can’t help but notice that this is the same arguments used in other countries to eliminate evolution and science from curriculums, and consolidate political power. Education under Stalin, Adolf Hitler and Education, from 1949 to Post Mao China: An Analysis of Chinese Education Reforms and Their Influence on Societal Development in China, [Poster]. #Book Teaching as a Subversive Activity [Cover]. From Kindergarten to Grad School, Trump Is Already Wreaking Havoc on the US Education System
-170521-7>8. ⊓ Tylenol Releases New Black Bile Gel Caps for People with Unbalanced Humors. This may be a repurposing of Tylenol Murders, Tylenol Scandal and Crisis Management [News], but probably not with the intent to do harm, but Poe’s Law could apply, where something intended to be humor is taken as fact. The Baffling Rise of Goop. All the “Wellness” Products Americans Love to Buy Are Sold on Both Infowars and Goop. Is Gwyneth Paltrow’s Goop Pseudoscience Winning. <ADDED 170827-170723-7>. Faith and Supplements – B17. Amygdalin is a toxic snake oil dating back to 1830, but it is still sold today with a combination of supplement industry deception, faith, and conspiracy theories. India Opens Homeopathy Laboratory.
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