Read This First 170423, Heuristics 170928, Glossary Updated 171220, Mini Lessons 170827
1. Economics + Health, 2. Fear of Needles, 3. Health as a Right, 4. Genesis 3:16, 5. Silence. <ADDED> 1. Dread of N Korean Bio Weapons, 2. Fall of Rome, 3. Questioning Zika and Microcephalic Link.
Other Topics: Vaccine, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Climate Change, Anthropocene, Anthropogenic, BioDefense, Anesthetic
-1. 2017: A Year of Ignorance. How does not measure economic health, and what is its relation with physical health. 1) Comparisons like this depend on where you start from. 2) Overall rates of growth in a complex modern economy are notoriously difficult to measure and depend on unrepresentative samples, guess work and huge value judgments as to what constitutes GDP in the first place. 3) Economic growth, however assessed, has become a deeply flawed measure of the health, welfare, dynamic vigor, balance and contentment of a society or nation. Conventional economic analysis concentrates on the cash value of activities and the measurable flow of investment, wages and interest, savings and consumption, and enterprise, all driven by competition and with the banks oiling the wheels of finance and the state providing, and charging for, the necessary infrastructure of public services, law and security. ¶ At the center of this stage is placed the utterly unconvincing and unreal figure of rational economic man, who in real life does not, of course, exist. It leaves out the real determinants of economic progress which lie at its very foundations – in the home, the household, the human impulses to share and cooperate, in the whole world of social relations and sense of fairness, in the surrounding environment and in the routine, but essential, dealings and requirements of daily life, on which everything else depends. Most of these activities in a society may be unpaid, but neither man nor woman, rational or otherwise, gets through the day without them. These are precisely the “core” qualities that determine a country’s strength, or weakness They are what decides whether an economy pulls together or slows down to torpor and stagnation levels and falls apart. Yet these are the considerations and measurements that almost all economists for the last century have completely ignored.
-1.2. Pandemic Risk: How Large Are the Expected Losses. There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full economic loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. This doesn’t include the economic losses from a zoodemic.
-1.3. Biodefense Policy Landscape Analysis Tool. Outbreaks of new and reemerging infectious diseases, coupled with an increasing biological threat from non state actors, highlight the continued need for the U.S. to prioritize biodefense efforts. The Blue Ribbon Panel on Biodefense has noted that the U.S. remains underprepared for a catastrophic biological attack or global pandemic, and has highlighted the need for increased government coordination in biodefense.
-2. Fear of Needles is a reason rarely given for avoiding vaccines. Insufficient data if mist or micropatches increases uptake, but there is a definate uptick of the oral polio vaccine. Fear of Needles May Chip Away at Vaccination Rates. Public health officials worry about the number of parents who aren't getting children vaccinated. A study suggests that getting multiple shots while in preschool contributes to vaccine fear. [Cartoon].
-‡. VCP News Archive: Mapping the Antivaccination Movement on Facebook. Over the past decade, antivaccination rhetoric has become part of the mainstream discourse regarding the public health practice of childhood vaccination. These utilise social media to foster online spaces that strengthen and popularise antivaccination discourses. In this paper, we examine the characteristics of and the discourses present within six popular antivaccination Facebook pages. We examine these large scale datasets using a range of methods, including social network analysis, gender prediction using historical census data, and generative statistical models for topic analysis. We find that present day discourses centre around moral outrage and structural oppression by institutional government and the media, suggesting a strong logic of ‘conspiracy style’ beliefs and thinking. Furthermore, antivaccination pages on Facebook reflect a highly ‘feminised’ movement 4↓ – the vast majority of participants are women. Although antivaccination networks on Facebook are large and global in scope, the comment activity sub networks appear to be ‘small world’. This suggests that social media may have a role in spreading antivaccination ideas and making the movement durable on a global scale. The VCP cited article was \fs24fldinst HYPERLINK "https://www.sciencealert.com/anti-vaxxer-facebook-dominated-by-women-and-conspiracy-theories" Study Shows What's Really Going on in Online Anti-Vax Groups. Not sure this was cited rather than the original abstract which was more informative. I tend to be dubious about any claim about what is really going on with the antivax movement. At the very least there are several things going on. ¶ Haram is against the word of god, a strong motivation to not question a prohibition. An Easy solution would be to have proper congress of authorities declare which vaccines are Halal, except getting agreement is nigh impossible as other than religious agendas are involved. Vaccines Aren’t Haram, No Matter What Those Aunties in the Muslim Community Are Telling You, Pork Gelatin in Flu Vaccination (2015), Vaccinations and the Shari’ah Rule on Them (2013), Muslims Shouldn’t Be Vaccinated (2007), Ruling on Childhood Immunizations and Vaccinations (2003).
-3. A 1960s 'Hippie Clinic' in San Francisco Inspired a Medical Philosophy. Fifty years ago a community health clinic first opened its doors as a safe, sympathetic space for countercultural youth. Today its motto is the same: "Health care is a right, not a privilege."
-4. It Didn’t Take Very Long for Anesthesia to Change Childbirth. The unprecedented idea of a painless delivery changed women’s lives. The public was skeptical of knocking people unconscious during surgery. Others vigorously countered the arguments of those who suggested God had ordained that women should suffer during childbirth. Then in 1853 Queen Victoria to relieve labor pain during the birth of Prince Leopold, ending any moral opposition to pain relief during childbirth. The idea of pain relief during surgery was unprecedented when surgeons started experimenting with it in the 1840s. For women, who routinely underwent agony to bear a child, the idea of birth without pain represented a new freedom. Following these innovations, women lobbied to assure pain relief during labor and sought greater control over delivery. ¶ Its just another 60 years before women earned the right to vote. Still working on having the right to health, possibly explaining taking control in ways that are considered irrational 2‡↑. What You Shouldn’t Put in Your Vagina: 2017’s Greatest Hits.
-5. In the main Weekly Parademic Notes tries to analyze human behavior in the context of biosphere disaster, giving examples of current examples, but in a simplified chaotic and inconsistent manner as when media reports on an accelerated biodisaster, The intent is to not only have valid information before hand for decision making, but to also have practiced at dealing with massive chaos during panic and irrational behavior. This week is likewise an illustration, but of a far more scary situation. A time when there is little to no information on the current situation, maybe some doomsday predictions, where there is no information coming out of some geographic areas, when all is rumor. Silence can be terrifying [Photo].
-171119-2>1, <ADDED 171224>6. It is normal after a report of some media outrage or fear piece that similar stories cluster, to include biothreats. Sometimes there are true, such as the ones related to biolab problems, sometimes not, such as the thousands of Ebola cases after a report of an infectious person brought in for treatment or became sick. As stated before an anthrax missile from N Korea to hit ths US is unlikely, However artillery with anthrax for S Korea, and N Korean soldiers being exposed to anthrax are credible, especially given the presumably low quality of biosafety gear and adherence to protocols North Korean Defectors Show Signs of Possible Radioactive Exposure. Concerns about N Korea bioweapons date well before this. If one depends on a single source, or ones that are unreliable it is easy to get caught up in fear mongering and not evaluate the actual risk. This is especially so when the situation is one of dread, The Infamous “War of the Worlds” Radio Broadcast Was a Magnificent Fluke, [Cartoon]. As mentioned before one of the advantages of bioweapons and bioterror is that one does not have to actually have capabilities, just the fear is enough. However that can back fire. The rumors that Saddam Regime of Iraq may still have bio and chem weapons was enough to eventually crush it.
-‡. North Korea Has Plague, Anthrax and Smallpox Weapons That Can Wipe out Tens of Thousands Say Experts. North Korea's Biochemical Threat (2009). How Serious Is the North Korean Anthrax Threat. Understanding North Korea's Biological Weapons Potential. N. Korea's Kim Says Nuclear Weapons Will Prevent War with U.S.
-160320-13>2, <ADDED 171105>5. How Climate Change and Disease Helped the Fall of Rome. At some time or another, every historian of Rome has been asked to say where we are, today, on Rome’s cycle of decline. New evidence has started to unveil the crucial role played by changes in the natural environment (not the sole reason, but one of a number of concurrent syndemics). The paradoxes of social development, and the inherent unpredictability of nature, worked in concert to bring about Rome’s demise. Climate change did not begin with the exhaust fumes of industrialisation, but has been a permanent feature of human existence. The modern, anthropogenic climate change is new and is so perilous because it is happening quickly and in conjunction with so many other irreversible changes in the Earth’s biosphere, but climate change per se is nothing new. ¶ Disruptions in the biological environment were even more consequential to Rome’s destiny. For all the empire’s precocious advances, life expectancies ranged in the mid 20s, with infectious diseases the leading cause of death. But the array of diseases that preyed upon Romans was not static and, here too, new sensibilities and technologies are radically changing the way we understand the dynamics of evolutionary history – both for our own species, and for our microbial allies and adversaries. The highly urbanised, highly interconnected Roman empire was a boon to its microbial inhabitants. The Romans connected societies by land and by sea as never before, with the unintended consequence (no longer this can this be called unintended, but a full denial, willful ignorence, of a known consequence) that germs moved as never before, too. The decisive factor in Rome’s biological history was the arrival of new germs capable of causing pandemic events. The empire was rocked by three such intercontinental disease events: The Antonine Plague, Plague of Cyprian and the Plague of Justinian. ¶ Pandemic baffles our distinctions between structure and chance, pattern and contingency (the separation between cause and effect can be so great in time and space that the confection is not seen). Therein lies one of the lessons of Rome. Humans shape nature – above all, the ecological conditions within which evolution plays out. But nature remains blind to our intentions, and other organisms and ecosystems do not obey our rules. Climate change and disease evolution have been the wild cards of human history. Our world now is very different from ancient Rome. We have public health, germ theory and antibiotic pharmaceuticals. We will not be as helpless as the Romans, if we are wise enough to recognise the grave threats looming around us, and to use the tools at our disposal to mitigate them (that is if done years before the biodisaster accelerates, on a global scale, not waiting until acceleration and not only concerned with a single jurisdiction). The Romans thought they had the upper hand over the fickle and furious power ofthe natural environment. History warns us: they were wrong. Human Societies Evolve along Similar Paths.
-160515-↕4>3. This is what is known as an outlier finding, which means that if it gets into popular media will be weighterd far more than its actual value. It is a worthwhile academic debate that could change interpretation, and I don’t see any contrary observations that have not been made before in professional literature. However at this point is too soon to have any value except supporting other agendas unrelated to public health. No Proof Zika Causes Microcephaly, UW-Madison. There isn’t enough evidence to claim that Zika virus causes abnormally small heads in babies of infected mothers, according to a UW-Madison study that challenges government findings. A government official said evidence of the link is sufficient and growing. • The prevalence of microcephaly in northeast Brazil, was similar or higher in previous years. • An increase in reported Zika infections during pregnancy was not followed by an increase in cases of microcephaly. • Babies of Zika infected mothers didn’t have significantly more microcephaly, which can cause developmental problems and even death. • Criteria for the condition changed that year to include children with larger heads than before. • Studies didn’t account for genetic causes of the birth defect. The points are worth a second look, but are more likely to be used as a justification to not finance Zikacures or provide support to those who are Microcephalic. As Zika Fades from Public Consciousness, Scientists Continue to Pursue the Virus.
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