Read This First, Heuristics (1), Glossary (A-H), Mini Lessons (2)
1. Sea Level Investment, 2. Ebola Maps, 2.1, Ebola Theater, 2.2. Outside the Spotlight, 3. Medical Cyber Attack, 4. Anthroponosis, 5. Hawaii Volcano, 6. Motivation for Prepping, 7. False Flu Security, 7.1. Robert Kates, <ADDED >VCP, >1. Social Media Influence, >2. Global Health Unimportant, >3. Sound Connections.
Other Topics: BioTrumpism, BioPolitics, Vaccine, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Climate Change, Anthropocene, Anthropogenic, Communication, Mental Maps, Identity Theft, Cyber Security, Flooding Investment Opportunities – BioCalamity Exploitation, Bats, Mass Hysteria, Right to Try, Competing Narratives, Chemical Weapons. Abortion and Contraception, North Korea, Magical Thinking, Moral Panic, Air Pollution and Disease, Nipah Outbreak.
-1. Foreign Investors Shrug Off Miami's Rising Sea Levels. Foreign investors think they're going to sell before climate change affects the price of their units. It's a case of the segment of the market most driving the market being divorced from reality. With the investor, they're going to be in and out. Their horizon is typically three, five, seven years. It's kind of an issue if you're worried about 10 or 20 years from now. It's not an issue if you're looking to capitalize on current market trends. It's a trader mentality*. In parademic this is usually referred to as short term thinking, with an immediate gain but long term loss that is likely to cost far more than any gain. But the loss will not impact those who profit as they will try to withdraw profit before a collapse and then buffer themselves from the impact, leaving government, locals who live in the area, non investors, in the lurch. This does not include that Floridians Could Far Far More Frequent, Intense Heatwaves and The Science Behind Florida’s Sinkhole Epidemic. ¶ This short termprofit worldview, small part of a human life span, is particularly ineffective in dealing with and perceiving consequences of something like, 400 Million Year Old Evolutionary Arms Race Helps Researchers Understand HIV, with human complications South Sudan’s Quiet Victims of War: With HIV, Without Help; Infected and Invisible, South Florida's housing crunch and high HIV rates threaten disaster. ¶ Houston Area Leaders Seek Ways to Stem Investor Buyouts of Flooded Homes, not a surprising development considering the growth of Texas cities, which is at odds with its wide open rustic spaces self image. White House Considered Ignoring New Climate Change Research. As Earth's Temperature Continues to Climb, We All Feel the Effects of Climate Change, Interactive.
-*A. There is large overlap between magical thinking and the positive thinking conditioning found in sales, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 . Sales, as any speculative finance, are by their nature uncertain, where one is likely to fail more often than win, but the wins are very huge wins line[Cover]. An unfortunate consequence of this type of thinking is that with success against the odds one is encouraged behave in more unethical and illicit ways, 2 , 3 , taking greater risks for larger rewards, to continue beng successful. How to Profit from Magical Thinking, How to Avoid Leading by Magical Thinking, Can Your Salespeople Articulate Value or Does it Sound like Magic, Trumpcare’s Cruel Magic Thinking, Americans Have a Longstanding Love of Magical Thinking. It Gave Us Trump.
-Quote: If the Dream Is Big Enough, the Facts Don't Count. – Truism, [Meme, Meme, Meme, Meme].
-2. Same problem as happened with West Africa Ebola: routes, road quality, locations of towns and medical facilities, location of cases and other geographic information is wrong. Most Maps of the New Ebola Outbreak Are Wrong. WHO released a map showing parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo that are currently being affected by Ebola. The map showed 4 cases in Wangata, 1 of 3 health zones in the large city of Mbandaka. Wangata, according to the map, lies north of the main city, in a forested area on the other side of a river. That is not where Wangata is. [Map]. Mapping Ebola in the Hobbyist Zone.... One of the most important parts of an early understanding of the risks attached to an infectious disease outbreak is knowing where it is: Which country, what part of the country, how remote is its location, how easy is it to access for the locals and for any help that may be coming, could its location have played a role in exposure to an infected vector or reservoir, are there hospitals or health centres (or airfields, cold storage, transportation hubs and distribution centers, power sources, types of vehicles....). Fear and Suspicion Hinder Congo Medics in Ebola Battle, this could be in part informed by the practice of isolating an area until the disease burns out, 180415-2. ¶ Teaching Refugees How to Map Their World Could Have Huge Benefits. This is focused on precise maps but Mental Maps are also of great value for parademic purposes. This is another example where precision may not be the best way to get human information, [Map, Map]. | Though refugees who are forced outside of their country is a big problem and received the lion’s share of media attention*, it’s those who are Internally Displaced, the evacuees who become permanent evacuees, and the homeless that are the far larger problem. Weather and Violence Displace Millions Inside Borders Every Year, No Public Health Without Migrant Health. *How Your Mind Reacts to Stress. When you experience stressful events, a physiological change is triggered that can cause you to become fixated on what might go wrong, -180311-6↓.
-2.1. The Political Theater of Controlling Ebola with Border Checks. The WHO, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Doctors Without Borders send in rapid response teams. These teams set up treatment centers and ship in supplies – including, this time, the first doses of an experimental vaccine. With luck, those emergency measures will control the spread of this outbreak. But there's another emergency measure that won't curb Ebola, and might even encourage it to spread: stopping people at national borders to see whether they carry the disease. Other political (media) theater, shaping perception, include: Donations/ Response, CDC, USAID to Send Experts, Funding to Help in DRC Ebola Outbreak Response, US to Contribute up to $7 Million to Fight Ebola Outbreak; Response, After Fumbling Ebola in 2014, Congo Is Key Test for UN.
-A. Ebola Vaccine, Experimental Ebola Vaccinations, Considered 'Paradigm Shift,' Begin In Congo, Ebola Virus Disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo: Update on Ring Vaccination, You’re Holding Your Breath: Scientists Who Toiled for Years on an Ebola Vaccine See the First One Put to the Test, Excitement over Use of Ebola Vaccine in Outbreak Tempered by Real World Challenges, -180513-1.1*¶2A>3.1¶, Vaccines Alone Won’t Beat Ebola. A deep understanding of the Congo’s culture and time honored public health tactics are the keys to controlling the outbreak. Ebola Outbreak: Importance of Gaining Community Trust During Vaccine Roll Out – Expert Comment. In the context of uncertainty, fear, a known deadly virus and an unknown foreign vaccine, it is not surprising that some particularly remote or marginalized communities might turn to their faith based groups and religious leaders. -VCP-Belgium -DRCongo↓. DRC Ebola Response Faces Community Resistance as Report Analyzes US Policy. New Ebola Tactics Raise Hope but May Sow Confusion. | And the most exciting cliff hanger, will we all die or not -180311-6↓. Ebola Outbreak in DRC on Epidemiological Knife Edge, Says WHO Official. The next two weeks will tell whether a vaccination campaign and public health measures can stop the Ebola outbreak in the DRC from exploding in urban centers and spreading to other countries, but will not be the end of the outbreak. Global Stakes High in New Ebola Outbreak. Could We Predict the next Ebola Outbreak by Tracking the Migratory Patterns of Bats.
-B. And a story we saw in West Africa Episodes, Ebola Patient Escapes from Wangata Hospital, 2 Patients Who Fled Ebola Ward among the Dead in Congo, Three Ebola Patients Fled Quarantine in Congo, Sparking Fears That the Disease May Spread. | Biocalamities frequently have claims of supernatural causes, though not always overt but taking the form of moral panics from contamination, DRC: Bad Luck, Witchcraft: What Is Being Said about Ebola in Mbandaka -180311-6↓, [Tweet]. Infection Alert after Dying Ebola Patients Taken to Congo Prayer Meeting. Supernatural explanations and fear rumors are usually found together, fueling each other, Press Statement on Rumoured Ebola Outbreak in Mubende District, there is no Ebola outbreak in Mubende or any other part of the country. Though a good press release, it is still risky*. If it turns out later that there was an unreported case that the government did not know about that could fan distrust, someone could decide that Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever is the same as Ebola, or that if there is Ebola a few months later someone can claim that there was Ebola and the government covered it up. | US Health Chief Pledges More Action If Ebola Spreads, though my inclination is to provide more resources to prevent spread, rather than wait for spread that will take more resources and have greater costs than preventing spread in the first place. Children must Be at Heart of Response to Ebola Outbreak in the DR Congo.
-*Quote: There are no words I can use, because the meaning still leaves for you to choose. – Cat Stevens
-C. Tied to the Ebola Vaccine is the Right to Try Heads Toward Finish Line, Congress Passes 'Right to Try' Experimental Drug Bill, Allowing the Critically Ill to Bypass FDA, <ADDED 180520>-180311-2>6, Giving Patients the ‘Right to Try’ Experimental Drugs Is a Political Maneuver, Not a Lifesaver, Right to Try Bill Passes, but Will it Help Terminally Ill Patients. Right to Try Drug Law Offers No Miracle Cure. The Very Worst Version of the ShamKnown as Right to Try Is Poised to Become Law. One issue is that medical scams can hide behind the law Helen Lawson and Black Salve: Cutting, Burning, and Poisoning Naturally.
-2.2. Then there are the off broadway shows, the syndemics that are not getting attention. 10 Dead from Nipah Virus in Southern India. Nipah Virus Cases a Localised Occurrence, Not an Outbreak: Health Ministry. Given the history of India and health care this does not fill me with confidence regarding the Nipah Virus with its: Reproduction Rate 1.8, Virulence at Level 4 along with Ebola and Smallpox, Incubation of 4-14 days, and there is no approved Vaccine and having survived had it does not give immunity and there is no approved vaccine. What Is Nipah Virus. It’s the worst disease no one has ever heard of. [Map]. <ADDED 180520-VCP-India>, (180513-1, 180506-2‡, <ADDED 180429-170409-10.1>10, <ADDED 180401-VCP-India>, <ADDED 180204-170910-10>15, 180128-3‡, 17####-↓↓. Nipah Virus Outbreak Linked to a Kerala Well with Many Bats, [Chart], Nipah Outbreak in Kerala: Experts Suspect Human to Human Transmission, Second Indian State Reports Suspected Cases of Rare Nipah Virus, Fanning Fears of Spread, Third Indian State Checks Suspect Cases in Outbreak of Rare Brain Damaging Virus, indicating spreading panic or that Deadly Nipah Virus Has Not Spread in South India was premature. ¶ The 14 Most Polluted Cities in the World Are All in One Country, Air Pollution Contributes to Global Deaths, The List of Diseases Linked to Air Pollution Is Growing. | If no vaccine or treatment is available one tends to see U.S. Biotechs to Speed Work on Nipah Vaccine as Virus Hits India, and complaints of why this was not done yet, Can Develop Vaccine to Fight Nipah If Government Asks for It, Says Serum Institute, Status of Vaccine Research and Development of Vaccines for Nipah Virus 2016. -VCP-India↓.
-3. Ransomware, denial of service (DoS), and alteration/ theft of medical records remain the three most likely attacks on medical electronic systems. Ransomware and DoS service are usually overt and noticeable (otherwise the purpose of the attack is defeated), though a DoS could be attributed to a computer error until correction made the actual nature is not known. To maximize value theft and manipulation of records are covert, and one may never discover it has occurred. Why You Are Probably Thinking about Ransomware the Wrong Way. The root of stopping the disruption caused by ransomware is not technology, rather it lies with human psychology (that is human factors again, making cyber attacks a parademic issue). The real target of ransomware might not be what you think. Who is more likely to fall for ransomware. How to short circuit the entire value prop behind ransomware. How companies avoid becomingransomware victims. How do you stop ransomware. There is also the possibility that stealing an individual health information can reveal information they wish to keep private, opening them up for ransom of the information, are agreeing to be manipulated to avoid the information getting out. In Time for Hacking Season, the US Has No Cybersecurity Coordinator, <ADDED 180520-180513-1.1¶2>2. | Senators Demand FCC Answer for Fake Comments After Realizing Their Identities Were Stolen. DHS Releases New Cybersecurity Strategy. Cybersecurity Framework 1.1. Nearly daily news reports of significant data breaches should be enough to convince businesses large and small to pay close attention to cybersecurity. This latest version includes updates on authentication, assessing risk, cybersecurity in the supply chain, and vulnerability disclosures.
-4. Most human disease are zoonotic in origin. Humans are returning the favor. Are Humans Causing Cancer in Wild Animals. Humans may influence cancer in many other species on the planet. As humans, we know that some of our activities can cause cancer to develop in our bodies. Smoking, poor diets, pollution, chemicals used as additives in food and personal hygiene products, and even too much sun can contribute to an increased risk of cancer. But, are human activities also causing cancer in wild animals. Researchers think so and are urgently calling for research into this topic. This is not a true anthroponosis, but humans have created the environmental conditions that increase the probability of cancer. [Art, Meme].
-5. Creeping Lava Now Threatens Major Hawaiian Power Plant. Hawaii on Edge as Lava Reaches Power Plant: No One Has Faced this Before. Actually this is characteristic of a biocalamity, shutting down businesses and infrastructure. At a minimum one should always know what will happen if a particular service is unavailable, that is the start of determining how to mitigate and prevent the negative consequences, or if it is not a concern or that fixing can be delayed in the context of other problems that take priority. In this case the agency knew the risk and had both a plan and means to implement it. Headline was probably to add drama to a slow moving event that would not have dramatic pictures. Workers Race to Plug Energy Plant as Lava Oozes Nearby. Kilauea's Wrath Threatens Power Plant – and Hawaii's Most Powerful Industry. Hawaii Volcano's 3 Weeks of Lava and Toxic Air, with No End in Sight, also characteristic is the inability to state when it is over, or even that the event is over or simply dormant. Besides Lava and Ash, Hawaii Volcano Is Pumping out Vog. Biocalamities also involve unfamiliar terminology, A Handy Guide to Volcano Vocab.
-6. U.S. Prepping Culture Influenced by Events, Not Apocalyptic Visions. The culture of preparing for disasters in the United States is usually portrayed as a delusional response to the belief in the imminent long-term collapse of society due to irrational fears of foreign invasions, the conspiratorial plans of New World Orders or a religious apocalypse. New research finds most people hoarding items such as food and water do so just in case, rather than because of deeply held, irrational beliefs that society is on the verge of an imminent collapse.
-7. False Sense of Security. Because this column uses flu vaccination as an example for several points it makes about “false sense of security” the editor sent it for review by a nurse in their Healthcare Working Group. She objected to most of what I had to say about flu vaccination. Based on her objections, The Synergist decided to reject the article. | I thought a couple of the reviewer’s points were valid. Several others steered me to better ways to express what I was saying so it would be less vulnerable to misunderstanding, real or feigned. But mostly I thought her objections were “the thing itself”. The column criticizes misleadingly one sided promotion of flu vaccination that could give vaccinees a false sense of security. The objections didn’t so much defend what I was criticizing as they embodied it. | The dictionary definition of “false sense of security” is simply the belief that some situation is safer than it actually is. If you underestimate any risk, you’re experiencing a false sense of security vis à vis that risk. Thus every justified warning (in my jargon, every justified piece of precaution advocacy) aims at diminishing the audience’s false sense of security. | More often than not, the term “false sense of security” is linked to a verb like “give.” Some behavior or message or precaution is accused of giving people a false sense of security. I have no quarrel with this accusation when it’s used to criticize over-reassuring risk communication. Though over reassurance frequently backfires, when itsucceeds it does indeed give people a false sense of security. ¶ A Century On, Why Are We Forgetting the Deaths of 100 Million. Pepe's Story: How I Survived Spanish Flu.
-7.1. Appreciation for a 1962 Dissertation. Reflections on the Work of Robert Kates. He was a pioneer in hazards research and risk perception who went on to examine matters such as climate change, hunger reduction, natural resource management, and sustainability. A lauded geographer and award winning scholar, Kates passed away April 21, 2018. This piece reminisces about Kates' particular brand of compassionate scholarship and his deep understanding of the human condition. How can we reduce hazard losses when the human response to low probability events is so, well, human.
<ADDED 180527>
>. VCP. News Archive↕: {Not in VCP}
- Ireland: Social Media Effort Helped Reduce HPV Vaccination Drop. Interesting that this was published in the Iran Daily, not the Irish Independent which has generally been in favor of the HPV vaccine. -180513-1.1¶1↓. 180513-1.1B¶1.
- Japan: Another Anti-Vax Paper Bites the Dust. But Not Quickly Enough. <ADDED 180520-VCP>Japan.
- Belgium: Why the World Needs More than One Ebola Vaccine. -2.1A↑.
- Philippines: PAO Not to Be Blamed for Rise in Measles Cases, Says Acosta. <ADDED 180506-VCP-Phillipines>.
- DRCongo: The Success of the New Ebola Vaccine Will Hinge on Trust. -2.1A↑.
- India: -2.2↑. MR Vaccination Drive: Initiative Did Not Got the Expected Results, headline now MR Vaccination Drive: Health Dept May Extend Deadline. Civil Surgeon Flags off MR Awareness Van. <ADDED 180520-VCP>. Illustrates transliteration problems. Civil Surgeon appears to be the equivalent for a high ranking Public Health Official, while in the US the term applies to a doctor who specializes in evaluating immigrants. The idiom “flag off” sounds similar to “wave off”, the warning to exercise extreme caution or to stay away (with yellow of red flags) in SAE and jargon, usually by an LSO or race track official. In this context it appears to mean to inaugurate, to start, as used with a green flag in American racing. This headline does not provide sufficient context for some forms of English, where the meaning could be interpreted as stopping the MR Awareness Van, antipode to what was actually meant.
- France: French Open Serves Cristal Champagne and Measles, a travel advisory for a disease outbreak in the country of {Louis Pasteur. Measles Makes Alarming Return to Europe and the Americas, Measles Outbreak Fears at Summer Festivals as Music Fans Urged to Get Vaccinated}. Vaccination: The Striking of the Controversial Pr Joyeux Examined Thursday. Vaccination – La Radiation du Controversé Pr Joyeux Examinée Jeudi. Apparently a continuation of an appeal of losing his medical licence in 2016 for ethical violations regarding vaccination, milk consumption, HIV. He appears to also be anti-government. {Vaccines – When Public Health Falls Victim of Big Money.
- USA: Americans Don't Trust Vaccines Like They Used To. {Poll: Support for Vaccines Falls, [Cartoon], America's Trust in Vaccines Is Slipping, and Public Health Experts Don't Know Why, the anti-vax movement is definitely a factor, but what is allowing it to thrive}.
- UK: How Fake Science Is Costing Lives – the Malign Rise of the Anti-Vaxxers. <ADDED 180520-VCP-Australia>.
-180513-1.1¶1>1, <ADDED 180520>1, -VCP-Ireland↑. Social Media under Microscope in Emotive Irish Abortion Vote. What's Trending in Fake News. Tool Show What Stories Go Viral, and If Bots Are to Blame, the Vectors. Landmark Abortion Vote in Ireland May Change Constitution. Irish PM Urges Voters to See Through Last Minute Abortion Tactics. Exit Polls Suggest Irish Voters Have Repealed Abortion Ban, Ireland Resoundingly Votes to Legalize Abortion, Quiet Revolution Leads to Abortion Rights Win in Ireland. Some Irish Catholics Worried, Dismayed after Abortion Vote, Catholic Leaders Notably Quiet as Ireland Debates and Votes on Abortion. ¶ Doctors Say Changes to Family Planning Program Is 'Government Interference' in Doctor, Patient Relationship, Trump Urges Anti-Abortion Advocates to Rally in November. Donald Trump’s Self Defeating War Against Abortion. Under Trump, Family Planning Funds Could Go to Groups That Oppose Contraception, Trump’s Abortion Rule Could Inhibit Access to Certain Forms of Birth Control. Abortion is not a biocalamity, however it is indicative of parademic attitudes that could facilitate or interfere with containment and control of an agent or the damage it can cause. Contraception to prevent Zika babies, or to terminate a Zika pregnancy, are Examples. If Trump Is the Most Pro Life President He Should Ban Breastfeeding. Abortion Group to Pump Millions into Winning Back House: We Were Built for this Moment. Abortion Wars Flare for Midterm Election Campaign. The Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program Was on the Right Track, Now It’s Being Dismantled.
-180513-3.1>2. The White House Signals That Bioterrorism and Disease Don't Matter – Again. In eliminating the Office of Global Health Security at the National Security Council, it seems these events have slipped the mind of newly installed national security adviser John Bolton. But he is not alone. This marks the third time that the national security community, in both Democratic and Republican administrations, has downgraded the importance of disease and bioterrorism threats in the hierarchy of national security issues. WHO and World Bank Group Join Forces to Strengthen Global Health Security, Global Digital Health Index launches alongside World Health Assembly. Infectious Disease Threats. Funding and Performance of Key Preparedness and Capacity Building Programs.
-180311-6>3. Pompeo Says China Incident Is Entirely Consistent with Cuba Sonic Attacks, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: Alleged Sonic Attack on a US Official in China Is Similar to Mysterious Incidents in Cuba, Injury U.S. Consulate Worker in China Suffered after Odd Sounds Is Similar to Cuba Case, Pompeo Says, Pompeo Says Incident in China Similar to Reported Cuba Health Scare, American in China Experiences Same Symptoms as Diplomats in Cuba Reported after Mysterious Sonic Attack. First Cuba, Now China. An American Falls Ill After Abnormal Sounds. The magical thinking* of It’s All Connected, what links creativity, conspiracy theories, and delusions – apophenia. This persistent insistence on a false narrative does eventually undermine confidence that there is something to it. I have to admit I would be very embarrassed if there is ever evidence that this is true, but if it is true the explanation is likely not to be what is being pushed Cuba’s Sonic Attacks Show Us Just How Susceptible Our Brains Are to Mass Hysteria, Mass Hysteria or Microwave Weapons. What's Behind the 'Sonic Attacks' on U.S. Diplomats in Cuba, Mass Hysteria May Explain Sonic Attacks in Cuba, Say Top Neurologists; Sonic Attack Not Mass Hysteria, Says Top Doc. He's Wrong. China Says No Reason Found for US Staffer’s Sonic Condition. The Science Behind Sonic Incidents. | Having a fuller context to compare and contrast with other mass hysterias, moral panics, parademic exploitations, medical scams, it is easier to see the repeated pattern of a false narrative. Magical thinking of sympathetic connection -2.1↑ is different than holism explanations for inter connections which are evidence based. This narrative seems to have its beginnings in early deep state conspiracy theory about surveillance, Kellyanne Conway: Microwaves That Turn into Cameras Can Spy on us.
-*Quote: (When asked if the horseshoe he’d hung at his country home was lucky). Of course not. But I understand it’s lucky whether you believe in it or not**. – Niels Bohr
-**Quote: The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it. – Neil deGrasse Tyson, which means the above quote is apocryphal, or based on earlier common aphorisms.
-A. It would be interesting to learn what Tillerson has to say of these Chinese and Cuban attacks, especially as both share a political motivated reasoning to hype the attacks, and he is no longer under obligation to the Trump Administration, though still has legal concerns. | Like magical thinking, mass hysteria tends to correlate with high anxiety and conditions of uncertainty. What Caused 300 Children and Adults to Collapse at Midland Marching Band Contest, 1983 West Bank Fainting Epidemic, The Case of the Mad Gasser of Mattoon. Mass Hysteria Blamed for Afghan Schoolgirl 'Poisoning,' Not the Taliban, The Deep State Panic of 2016, There’s More Risk of Mass Hysteria than Ebola -2.1↑. Mass Hysteria & Moral Panic: Definitions, Causes & Examples, How Liars Create the Illusion of Truth, Are Anti-Vaccine Parents in the Grip of Mass Hysteria, Immigration Hysteria, 170827-6, The Lesson from a Hoax.
-B. Likely this narrative blends with the communists using chemical weapons and poison narrative which does have supporting evidence, but also a hype of a pervious hysteria that is now having another wave, Defeating a Demagogue: It Has Happened Before. The McCarthy Era. This new wave is supported by Trump Cancels Summit, Citing ‘Open Hostility’ by North Korea, a country also accused of using nerve agents for assassination, A Brief History of Attempted Russian Assassinations by Poison. This is complicated by competing narratives, N. Korea Demolishes Nuclear Test Site as Journalists Watch – ignoring that the site was already destroyed, North Korea’s Nuclear Test Site Has Collapsed ... and That May Be Why Kim Jong-Un Suspended Tests. -2↑. The Gathering Health Storm Inside North Korea.
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