Read This First, Heuristics (1), Glossary (A-H), Mini Lessons (2)
-1. Interactive Systems = Health, 1.1. Smokestorm. 2. SASSY, 2.1. Climate Rubicon, 2.2. Hollow Stuffed Mankind, 2.3. Crisis Stress, 2.4. Antidiluvian, 3. Cyber Fire <ADDED >1. Fuel Load, >2. Moral Panic Harm, >3. Sex Abuse Harm, >4. Replication, >5. Tobacco Disinformation, >6. Science Adviser, >7. Non Agent Chem/Bio Warfare, >8. Conflict Ebola, >9. Finally Something May Stick, >10. Puerto Rico Revision, >11. Wrong Oral Problem, 180902-VCP.
Other Topics: BioTrumpism, BioPolitics, Vaccine, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Climate Change, Anthropocene, Anthropogenic, Communication, One Health, Environmental Change, Human Factors, HIV, Ebola, EPA Website, Neologism, Famine, Insects, Diaspora, Memory, Cognition, PTSD/ASD, Mass Extinction
-1. Social, Environmental Factors Can Provide Missing Link to What’s Causing Health Problems for Patients. More and more, providers are looking beyond the immediate health problem for patients in order to improve care and to save money. Social/ Natural support and damage to the Biosphere/ Physical Environment, are the foundation for parademic and health as a whole. In fact health isn’t possible unless all four of the systems are healthy. Currently the anthroposphere is unhealthy and toxic to the other systems. That leaves three possibilities: The other systems will rebalance or eliminate the anthroposphere which is an emergent system and not critical to the other systems; The anthroposphere becomes more adaptive to the other systems; Or, a cascade will severely damage or destroy the interactive systems. The last option is called a mass extinction.
-1.1. #Linguistics, As mentioned before one characteristic of biocalamities is that neologisms are invented to describe what has existed for a long time but not named, or old/ technical words are added to popular lexicons. Your Next Weather Apocalypse: The Smokestorm, A Smokestorm Is Imminent’: Spokane’s Hazardous Air Now Worse than Beijing and Delhi Mixed, What’s a Smokestorm. A Meteorologist Explains, [Photo]. Air Pollution Causes Huge Reduction in Intelligence. Smoke Reinforces Worries about Climate. as Wildfires Rage, Smoke Chokes out Farmworkers and Delays Some Crops.
-2. Six Americas Super Short Survey (SASSY) is a very short survey (four questions) that gives you the ability to find your segment within the Six Americas. [Scale]. Global Warming’s “Six Americas Short Survey”: Audience Segmentation of Climate Change Views Using a Four Question Instrument. This reminds me that in PDWN I often imply that behavior, actions, attitudes and beliefs are so closely tied that they determine the others. That is not actually the case, each influences the others. It is known that people will behave outside of their beliefs (usually because of other beliefs or threats), that attitude will not always correspond with acts, and that if ____ then ____ will always be in lock step with behavior. These are always in concert, but nothing says it will not be discordant. Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2018, 180826-1. Can Climate Science Shift Climate Politics. -180729-1INDEX↓. 180902-VCP-Research. ¶ One of the examples of politics and environmental change is the expunging of information from government websites, [Cartoon, Strip], INDEX-Website Deletions. -3↓, White House Taking down Petition Website, Pledges to Launch New One. EPA Asks Supreme Court Not to Take up Case on Planet Warming Chemicals, Administration to Shut down ACA Enrollment Website for 12 Hours on Most Sundays it is almost like they are trying to hide something. -180128-3.1↓.
-2.1. Scientists Calculated a Point of No Return for Dealing with Climate Change – and Time Is Running out. If the transition to clean energy sources by 2035 – meaning that the share of renewables starts to grow by at least 2% each year – we'll almost certainly pass that point of no return. The exact year could change, according to the researchers' model, if new technology can remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or if we see quicker growth in renewables. But no matter what, the deadline is coming soon. Having a date make this more real. Some will be willing to change to prevent environmental change for the sake of children and grandchildren, while others won’t care as they will be gone before the worse consequences happen, 170220-Preface. Besides heat, flood, rising seas, drought, extreme weather, failed government and leadership, megafires, pandemics, invalidated beliefs, changed information, invasive species, diaspora ...., people will be faced with famine. A global famine is a mass extinction event as the biosphere eats and fights itself to stay alive. Crops Already Ravaged by Climate Change Face a New Threat: Hungrier Bugs, Climate Change Means Insects Are Coming for Our Food, Rise in Insect Pests under Climate Change to Hit Crop Yields, Climate Change Projected to Boost Insect Activity and Crop Loss, Global Warming Could Spur More and Hungrier Crop Eating Bugs. [Art, Art, Art]. No Ecosystem on Earth Is Safe from Climate Change.
-2.2. Why Civilizations End. Scientists studying fallen civilizations suggest that the culprit is overshoot in combination with climate change.. Hopefully this does not mean we will have a natural experiment to confirm if a Malthusian Catastrophe -2- -3- via a global accelerated polybiocalamity* is true or not. 180729-7.1. * is a syndemic in an anthrome. Polycalamity is a combination of bio, social and geo in an anthrome. Currently there are few places on Earth where a bio, social or geo catastrophe would involve an anthrome. -180513-1.1↓. How Climate Change Has Plagued the Health of Nations for Centuries.
-2.3. Crisis Stress: Part 1 – How and Why A Crisis Affects People. During disasters and emergencies people are affected by the stresses and challenges of these events. These stresses can sometimes be quite traumatic. We should be attentive to the ways in which such events affect and change those who are working, living, enduring, and surviving during a high stress crisis. In addition to recognizing and adapting to the dynamics of those with whom we work or manage who are under tremendous pressures during crises, we ourselves as crisis managers are likewise affected by the stresses of these events. Part 2 – Acute Stress Response (ASR). Crises are stressful events. Humans respond to crises with several physiological changes including the Acute Stress Response (ASR) which normally enables us to focus on one singular task (perceptual narrowing or “tunnel vision”), be attentive in order to concentrate on that core task (to the lack of focus on other tasks or stimuli) and physically excel (that is the fighting or fleeing aspect of the ancient “fight or flight” response, Parademic Heuristic: Freeze, Flight, Fight). The heightened focus and perceptual narrowing can be advantageous for some circumstances. However, beyond certain optimal threshold levels, too much or too prolonged stress of emergency contexts can crate dysfunctional physical and mental impacts, 180826-7. Part 3 – Psychological and Cognitive Effects. There is considerable evidence of psychological and cognitive performance changes when we are under crisis stress. When we confront a dangerous, threatening or critical situation we have a rapid physical response before we even fully comprehend or understand what is happening. However, we also begin the emotional and cognitive processes of appraisal and assessment of the situation. Not everyone reacts to situations in the same way, nor to the same degree, and not at the precise same sequence. For most of us, we start with high levels of uncertainty and ambiguity (e.g. we initially hear “firecrackers” rather than “gunshots”). We struggle to grasp to understand (make meaningful) what is happening and define it. Is this a danger, is the danger real, have I been in this situation before, if so, how did I cope, if not, what should I do, is help available, what are others doing, is there a vulnerable person who needs my help, should I act. The first major psychological aspect of experiencing crises is coping with uncertainty, ambiguity and behavioral actions. Part 4 – Concentration, Memory, and Focus. Acute crisis stress affects many memory functions and other cognitive functioning of the brain. There are different levels of stress and the high levels can be intrinsic or extrinsic. Acute stress is a stressor that arises from an immediate perceived threat. The research on the effects of acute crisis stress on human memory and recall paints a complex portrait that resists simple descriptions. The main line of research findings suggests that acute crisis stress can impair both short and long term memory, and one’s ability to recall even well-rehearsed skills, abilities and behaviors, as well as the formation of new memories that would have expected to have formed during crisis contexts. While other studies have to the contrary suggested instances where acute stress can enhance memory both in terms of recall and the formation of new memories during peak periods of acute stress. It is useful to remind ourselves that different people experience acute stress differently and not all of us react to experienced stress the same way as others even when we do experience it. It is possible that uncertain certain circumstances and for certain people that acute stress might function to suppress memories and either aid or hinder the formation of new memories, INDEX-Reconstructed Memory. Dr. Robert Chandler has several posts that are applicable to parademic. Close Enough II.3, Page 13, Perception and Memory.
-2.4. On a Sinking Island, Climate Science Takes a Back Seat to the Bible. #Book Chesapeake Requiem -2- [Cover] is unflinching about sea level rise, but careful not to belittle the beliefs of those at the heart of the calamity. [Photo, Cartoon].
-3. Did Verizon Wireless Throttle a Fire Department’s Data Service During a Wildfire. Cyber security issues during biocalamity is a topic in PDWN, but this is the first I am aware of an official cyber policy* that became a self inflicted attack (suicide) on cyber systems. INDEX-Attacks on Medical-Cyber. * -2↑ is censorship which is a form of self inflicted attack but not done through cyber means -180826-2.1↓. That would be more akin to disinformation using the Internet -180422-1‡>↓, 180902-VCP-Russia. Hacking websites and deleting climate change information would be a cyber attack. In either case people could die. Unsecured, Obsolete Medical Record Systems and Medical Devices Risk Patient Lives. Censorship Doesn’t Just Stifle Speech — It Can Spread Disease.
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-180826-1‡>1. California Has 129 Million Dead Trees. That’s a Huge Wildfire Risk, but no one can afford to cut them all down. As often the case with biocalamity the problem was noticed years prior, but nothing seriously done until acceleration has economic impacts. The usual reasons why nothing is done because of economics -180826-2.1↓, and when there is finally action the expense in even higher than if something had been done when it was still a relatively small problem. California Has 66 Million Dead Trees but Nowhere to Put the Wood 2016, Do Dead or Dying Trees Raise Wildfire Risk 2016, Bark Beetles, Fuels, Fires and Implications for Forest Management in the Intermountain West 2008, Forest Policy Up in Smoke: Fire Suppression in the United States 2007, Basic Principles of Forest Fuel Reduction Treatments 2005. California Governor Relaxes Logging Regulations to Mitigate “Climate Change” Fire Risk. California Approves Measure to Pass on Wildfire Costs. How Increased Logging to Prevent Wildfires Hinders Biodiversity. The Trump administration has posited that more active management of forests could help prevent future fires, but the science doesn't back that up. ¶ Like rising sea level so far Wildfire Risk Isn’t Spooking Home Buyers.
-180826-2.1>2. A stigmatized group in a society is an easy target to unify people around via a moral panic. Doing so however means that group will not only hide their identify from the society it is embedded in, but if that group has an infectious disease they will hide it -3↑. Hiding their disease condition is relatively easy as they are already stigmatized -180513-1.1‡↓, ignored, and likely have limited access to medical care. If the outbreak is hidden for a long time, when it accelerates into a pandemic it is much more difficult to contain, control. Eradication is usually not done because of costs -180826-1‡↑. This is in part because the power to accomplish this is held by the same people that prevented it from being contained and controlled early, and it is a strong possibility the same people will profit by being the ones to respond to the biocalamity, while there is little gain in political clout from keeping one from happening in the first place <ADDED 170903- H¶2nd*. Majority of Russians Believe Gays Conspiring to Destroy Country's Values, Poll Finds. If Putin Is So Great, Why Are So Many Russians Getting HIV. *Voters reward politicians for spending money on post disaster cleanup, but not for investing in disaster prevention, and it's only natural that politicians respond to this incentive.
-180826-5>3. Sex Abuse Arrest Imperils Frieden’s Legacy and $225 Million Global Health Campaign. -180729-1INDEX↓.
-180819-7>4. The Science Behind Social Science Gets Shaken Up – Again$. An attempt to replicate some of the decade's best research shows some of it doesn’t. Not some of it, most of it. This is not because the science is wrong but because it is nearly impossible to replicate the exact same conditions because there are too many variables to control as well as ethical and legal issues for levels of control of human communities. This is one reason parademic will not lead to certainty in prediction. It can indicate what is likely to happen, and as the interaction of the bioevent and community (not just the social human one, but the biome it is embedded in) progresses it will become more certain (but not a statistical value unless one wants to reassure decision makers) of what will happen and what will change given new factors, but highly unlikely there will ever be 100% correspondence between prediction and what happens. Evaluating the Replicability of Social Science Experiments in Nature and Science Between 2010 and 2015. More Social Science Studies Just Failed to Replicate. Here’s Why this Is Good. Many Studies Fail Reproducibility Tests Again in Social Sciences and Psychology, So What's up. The Culturally Polarizing Effect of the Anti-Science Trope on Vaccine Risk Perceptions, 180902-VCP-Research for the rest of this series. Rumors of the “Non Replication” of the “Motivated Numeracy Effect” are Greatly Exaggerated. Tackling the Reproducibility Crisis. What Kind of Scientific Crisis Is the Field of Ecology Having. Why Science’s Crisis Should Not Become a Political Battling Ground. Is Reproducibility Crisis Overblown. INDEX-Replication Crisis. Disentangling the Relationships Between Cultural Traits and Other Variables, differentiating between causation and mere correlation. Rumors of the Nonreplication of the Motivated Numeracy Effect Are Greatly Exaggerated. Scientists Only Able to Reproduce Results for 13 out of 21 Human Behavior Studies.
-180826-VCP-Russia>5. Move over Marlboro Man: Big Tobacco Is Now Turning to Social Media Influencers to Make Smoking Look Cool. Fake News Vs. Counterfeit Social Proof – Lecture Summary & Slides. We're All Doomed. Oh, Wait...Maybe Not. The World Isn't as Bad as Your Wired Brain Tells You.
-180729-1INDEX>6, <ADDED 180805>2, -2 -180826-5↑. Former OU Researcher Defends Scientific Freedom While Facing Climate Change Questions. “The ethical conduct of research with integrity, without political interference ... is absolutely without question important, and to me there is no other way to do it”. So far no red flags, except for coming from the same state as Pruitt. Now to see if he actually gets the job, and once in if it will be more than window dressing. Suspect that he will become a lightening rod for climate denial media or those who want to downplay it with other issues, ∩ Pope Francis Called Emergency Meeting on Climate Change, But Not on Rampant Pedophilia in His Church -2- -3- -4- not to mention harming the health care the Catholic Church provides; as well as from the more rabid climate doom media, What a New York Times Op Ed Misses about Living with Climate Change.
-180513-1.1>7, <ADDED 180826>6. 180902-VCP-DRCongo. A Dangerous Twist to the Latest Ebola Outbreak, Battling Ebola in a War Zone in Congo. Difficult Follow up of People in Contact with Ebola Patients. Ebola is also part of a syndemic as well as polycalamity -2-2↑, HIV/ AIDS Prevalence Rate in Ituri Goes from 3.2% in 2014 to 6.2% in 2018, HIV Is Still Taboo in the DRC: Chronicles from Kinshasa, Tackling Cholera in DRC, a Deep Seated Health Emergency, Democratic Republic of Congo, Severe Malaria Facts, Dreadful Increase in Cholera Case Numbers in South Kivu, and a number of others -2- along with DRC: 770,000 Children Suffer from Acute Malnutrition and lack of sanitation, clean water, education. But they do have an abundance of poverty. Add to the mix uncertainty of information. Bunia: No Confirmed Ebola Case after Tests . But what was the other disease, An Update on the Bunia Suspected Ebola Case. UN: Substantial Risks Remain in Congo’s Ebola Outbreak, Ebola Control Measures Seem to Be Working in Congo, Why Health Officials Are Afraid the Ebola Outbreak in the Congo Could Get Way Worse. The tendency of health organizations is to down play troughs in the waves of an outbreak until there is a clean downward trend, have not seen anything by the national government yet which tend to be overly optimistic and the outbreak will be ending soon. Experimental Ebola Drugs Face Tough Test in War Zone, with H5N1 comment.
-‡. Two Worlds Meet as Doctor’s DRC Clinic Blends Western and Traditional Treatments, Healing in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Back to School: UNICEF to Train 1,750 Teachers on Ebola Prevention, Beni: Chlorinated Water and Contactless Thermometers to Fight Ebola in Schools. Battling Ebola in a War Zone in Congo. Suspicious Case in Goma Ruled Out, but DRC Confirms More Ebola. DR Congo: Triple Threat of Conflict, Community Resilience and Increasing Ebola Cases Complicates Response to Outbreak. Information Circulation in times of Ebola: Twitter and the Sexual Transmission of Ebola by Survivors. Heads of Beni Neighbourhoods Equipped with Cell Phone to Alert Officials over Suspected Cases. Ebola Survivors Returning Home to Fear, Stigma in Congo, -180826-2.1↑.
-180422-1‡>8, <ADDED 180429>1, -3↑. Russia Ramps Up Chemical Weapon Disinformation Leading Up to Idlib Offensive. Russia has used disinformation to undermine evidence of use of chemical weapons in Syria and attacks made on medical facilities. This is about the use of disinformation to increase fear that chemical weapons will be used. Fear is in many ways more effective than actual use of bio/chem weapons: It avoids the risks and costs of using these weapons; there is a strong possibility that a claim will be made chem/bio was used and when investigated will prove not to be the case, undermining future and past claims; the demoralization can mean faster capitulation and fewer casualties. A drawback is that if an enemy has similar capabilities that they may panic or get desperate and conduct a preemptive and/or retaliatory terror, conventional, nuclear or chem/bio attack. A similar use of fear was used in War in Chechnya: Chemical Weapons Fear Haunts Chechens 1999. Essentially this is conducting biological and chemical warfare without actually having to use the agents. 180902-VCP-Russia. ¶ Bioterrorism: Fear Accidents More than Attacks. To Prepare for Urban Warfare, Soldiers Train for Chemical Attack, Mass Disaster Response in Detroit. The FBI Launches a Combating Foreign Influence Webpage.
-A. Measles, War, and Health Care Reforms in Ukraine. Russian backed attempts to sabotage Ukraine's economic, political, and health developments have left the country fighting a measles outbreak and continuing a bloody, undeclared war. The measles outbreak – affecting other countries including Serbia, Georgia, Greece, and Italy – has hit Ukraine hardest, with the country's 23 000 cases accounting for more than half the European regional total. Kremlin supported social media accounts spreading discredited theories about the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine, combined with shortages and underfunding, have been blamed for the outbreak. Research published on Aug 23 concluded Russian trolls promoted discord and, masquerading as legitimate users, created a false impression that arguments for and against vaccination were equipoised. The result has been an erosion of public consensus on the value of vaccine programmes.
-180311-6>9, <ADDED 180826>7. Microwave Weapons Are Prime Suspect in Ills of U.S. Embassy Workers, Sonic Attacks on U.S. Embassy Staff Could Have Been Weaponized Microwave Radiation. Finally some evidence, circumstantial but still indicative of a range of possibilities that is not based on restricted information about microwaves. The effect is documented, Brain Abnormalities Found in Victims of US Embassy Attack in Cuba, but the cause is still speculative ranging from a form of hysteria – Sonic Attack or Mass Paranoia. New Evidence Stokes Debate over Diplomats’ Mysterious Illness, Cuba on U.S. Diplomats’ Health lineAttacks: No Way It’s Sonic Weapons. Maybe It’s Stress, UM Doctor Who Examined American Diplomats in Havana: Symptoms Are Not Caused by Stress – to intentional use of a targeted weapon with collateral damage. PDWN’s speculation is an unintentional harmonic, Computer Scientists May Have Solved the Mystery Behind the ‘Sonic Attacks’ in Cuba, between surveillance systems or surveillance and another system (probably communication). This is exacerbated by social construction of reality to support a particular narrative, and refusal (at least accusations normally do not engender warm friendly feeling) to cooperate with information sharing to get missing pieces of information that could lead to a link. | If this does turn out to be true there are potential applications for possible medical treatments. In any case it is important to figure out the cause, but it could happen that the cause may be classified and not shared. In aworld filled with stress, misinformation and electronics it would be nice to determine a cause. If it is a health threat, it could happen again to a larger group and create more fear that justifies unwise policies and actions, Sonic Attacks: How a Medical Mystery Can Sow Distrust in Foreign Governments, What the US Government Is Not Telling You About Those Sonic Attacks in Cuba. | Cuba Accountability Review Board, State Dept. Lacked Long Term Care for Cuba Health Incidents$, Cuba's 'Sonic Attacks' vs Edinburgh University: The 40% Mystery.
-180128-3.1>10, <ADDED 180826>8. Puerto Rico Officially Updates Hurricane Maria Death Toll to 2,975. BTW, altering federal records is a crime. <ADDED 171015-171001-2.1E>6. <ADDED 171008>-171001-2.1 et al>2. -1‡, -2↑. The Latest: White House Responds to Higher PR Hurricane Toll, -2- the euphemism is “without evidence” -2- -3- -4- -5- -6- -7- -8-*. Is Trump's White House Turning into a Greek Tragedy. By coincidence August 29, 2005 Hurricane Katrina Slams into Gulf Coast is the anniversary of the previous record holder of numbers killed, what was called a real disaster, and likewise a failed disaster response [Photo, Meme]. Trump Says Government Did a Fantastic Job with Puerto Rico Hurricane Response -2- -3- -4- [Poster, Cartoonlain ], San Juan Mayor Blasts White House for Being Proud of Hurricane Maria Response. Recommendations Aimed at Preparing Puerto Rico for Hurricane Season, Ascertainment of the Estimated Excess Mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. Trump Revokes Puerto Rico Recovery Funds After Learning Hurricane Maria Had Fewer Survivors. | This is a bit dated but still a useful introduction to Disaster Anthropology, with free on line and .pdf versions. Facing Hazards and Disasters Understanding Human Dimensions 2006. | Reggaetón and the Search for Identity after Hurricane María. Biocalamity means loss, grief, diaspora. Music is easy to transport and represents home, family, community, culture, identity, emotion. Like humor, art, ideas, beliefs, traditions, language, narratives – those immaterial things that make up who we are – music is light weight, but very heavy emotionally and intellectually.
-*. One of the critical elements of control and containment of a biocalamity is leadership. If the leader pays no attention that will delay and hinder effective response. If the leader is not trusted to be relaying fact then it is unlikely the others will follow directions, and will be more likely to have emergent parademic behavior. If leadership has shown a pattern of incompetence related to biocalamity, emergent behavior is likely to be preemptive before a bioevent. Key Health Implications of Separation of Families at the Border. <ADDED 180812-180805-6|>1.
-171210-10>11, <ADDED 180805>13. Plastic Straw Ban. Cigarette Butts Are the Single Greatest Source of Ocean Trash, with a total of more than 60 million collected over 32 years, [Photo]. I believe this is incorrect as there is far more plastic that has gotten in ocean, much of it now microscopic, However on beaches in the US it is likely butts are discarded directly on beach instead of discarded properly, and picked up in daily cleaning. California Seeks to Be First State to Limit Plastic Straws, People Need Them: The Trouble with the Movement to Ban Plastic Straws, California City Oks Jail Time for Defying Plastic Straw Ban, Poll: Americans Support Moving Away from Plastic Straws, less Sure of Ban. Band Aid fixes are common parademic response, possibly making people feel they have done something is the fact of an overwhelming problem. Kerfuffles are also common.
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