Read This First, Heuristics (1), Glossary (A-H), Mini Lessons (3)
1. Camp Fire Stories, 1.1. Imaginary Forests, 1.2 Mass Cremation 2. Laughter is the Best for Understanding, 3. Climate Hiccup, 3.1. Climate Gender, 3.2. Cooperation, 4. America Update, 5. Terror Mongering Side Effect, 6. Hype about Hype, 7. Origin to Controversy, <ADDED >1. Rain vs Fire, >2. Evacuation vs Default No Decision, >3. Smoke = Profit, >4. Parabellem TB, >5. Saving Money = Later Costs, >6. Antilife Economics, >7. NRA Flame War on Ambulance Lane, >8. Fever Economics, >9. Unbeliever(able) Speaker, >10. Ebola Parapolemos, 181125-VCP.
Other Topics: BioTrumpism, BioPolitics, Vaccine, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Climate Change, Anthropocene, Anthropogenic, Communication, One Health, Environmental Change, Human Factors, Social Dimensions, Narratives, Raked Over Ashes, Arts, Finland, Mass Grief, Spontaneous Memorials and Shelters, Acid Rain, National Climate Assessment, Echo Chambers, Multi Models, Slow News Days, Journalism, Anti-Migrants, Rumor, Mars (Space) Refugees
-1. Memorials are expected after mass casualty events, How Do You Grieve for a Whole Town. Paradise Residents Seek Healing at Camp Fire Vigil. Denial followed by anger is part of this grief process. Denial and deflecting blame when individuals and a community are going into anger gives a target for the anger AP Fact Check: Trump’s Misdirection on Calif Fires, Climate. Trump Met with Backlash after Inadvertently Referring to Fire Scarred Paradise as Pleasure. Wildfire Evacuees Not Impressed with Trump’s Rake Remarks During California Visit “I voted for him, now he can kiss my red ass” – Former Supporter, [Cartoon]. A Few Hardy Wildfire Survivors Hunker down for Long Haul. Camp Fire Evacuees Will Be Served Thanksgiving Dinner by Neighboring Communities. One Tiny Owl: Otherworldly Photos from California's Woolsey Fire. Camp Fire Is Nearly Contained as 475 People Remain Missing. How Faith Leaders Respond to Tragedies like the California Wildfires, Job 18:15-17 Their lives go up in smoke; acid rain soaks the ruins. The roots rot and branches wither. They'll be forgotten, nameless in unmarked graves. [Photo, Photo]. Evacuee’s by the way are nearly the same as internally displaced people, or other types of force migration.
-1.1. The biotrumpism narrative of Forest Management, California's Wildfires Have Spawned a Truly Weird New Conspiracy Theory, takes many forms but the basic message is that the fires are not a consequence of Climate Change, Zinke Blames Environmental Radicals for Deadly California Fires, Climate Science Denial Is Killing Us. Finnish President: I Didn't Talk to Trump about Raking to Prevent Wildfires, Trump Says Finland Prevents Wildfires by Raking Forests. Finland Isn't Sure What He's Talking About, Make America Rake Again: Confusion in Finland over Trump's Wildfire Comments, Make California Rake Again: Trump’s Fire Propaganda Video Callously Ignores the Victims, Trump Mocked for Telling California to Rake its Forests like Finland to Reduce Fire Risk, Finland Memes Trump for Suggesting Raking Stops Wildfires, Why Finland Is So Good at Handling Forest Fires. Hint: It’s Not Because of Raking. California, Trump Eye Logging to Fight Wildfire as Scientists Point to Climate Change and Housing Sprawl.
-A. Here's Everything President Donald Trump Has Tweeted about the California Wildfires, Trump's Fire Tweet Infuriates California Celebrities; Hollywood Strikes Back, Firefighters Call Trump Tweet on California Wildfires Reckless and Insulting. <ADDED 181118-180805-6>4 -B -C. [Meme, Meme, Meme, Meme, Meme, Cartoon, Cartoon, Trump + Fire has been waves of Icons before this, Cartoon]. Suggestion: When faced with dealing with the grief of others do a self check first to assess if you are empathetic and sympathetic. If you still don’t know if you are either, you are probably not. If you are either, more than likely you probably know that unless you have had the same level of grief experience you don’t know how people feel, and you do know better than to say anything. Even if you don’t really care it shows empathy and sympathy to not to try to capitalize on the grief of others to exploit to a political agenda.
-B. Another version of the Forest narrative. Laura Ingraham Cites BBC Article* to Claim Trump Was Right about Wildfires, Skips Every Mention of Climate Change, she apparently only read the headline California Wildfires: Is Trump Right When He Blames Forest Managers. It is common for a headline to have very little relation to the content, so this is not an unusual mistake. However, even as an opinion journalist focused on causing outrage and not limited by fact, she should still have been aware of this. This mistake is not going to be detrimental to Ms Ingraham -2- -3- as she speaks in an echo chamber 181125-VCP-USA, -181118-5.1-Fossil Fuels↓, ain to an audience who are unlikely to have other opinions as fact sources, or even question her statements. Hannity Falsely Claims That Trump Is Right to Blame California Wildfires on Forest Management, Fails to Mention Climate Change. -181118-1-Missing -Evacuation -Smoke↓. Trump Officials Cite California Fires in Renewing Call for Forest Logging Policies and hopefully they will keep in mind labor safety. CNN Meteorologist Schools Trump on the Meaning of the Word ‘Climate’ [Meme]. | The Beginning of the End of America’s Best Idea. It wasn’t environmentalists who kicked up 50 mile an hour winds in a state that had seen barely a whisper of rain over the past six months, scorching gusts that bounced by means of canyons thick with man made combustibles. The nationwide parks, oft called America’s finest thought -2-, have been created by individuals who appeared past their very own lives. These folks made nice ancestors – benevolent, farsighted, selfless. What they protected have been islands of variety that people have been quick destroying. Local weather change has put these parks in actual peril. Decision Making During Crises and How to Avoid Groupthink (Echo Chambers*), Bulverism -2- -3-. How Amazon Forest Loss May Affect Water, and Climate, Far Away, 181118-VCP-Brazil.
-*. The opposite of an echo chamber, group think, psychophants, cult is Why “Many Model Thinkers” Make Better Decisions. The most sophisticated organizations use models. In fact, they do something even better: they use many models in combination. Without models, making sense of data is hard. Data helps describe reality, albeit imperfectly. On its own, though, data can’t recommend one decision over another. To turn data into insight you need to plug it into some model of the world — for instance, you may hypothesize that having a greater variety of perspectives on a team leads to better decision making. Your hypothesis represents a model of the world. Though single models can perform well, ensembles of models work even better. That is why the best thinkers, the most accurate predictors, and the most effective design teams use ensembles of models or many model thinkers. | Models organize the firehose of data. These models all help leaders explain phenomena and communicate information. They also impose logical coherence, and in doing so, aid in strategic decision making and forecasting. It should come as no surprise that models are more accurate as predictors than most people. In head to head competitions between people who use models and people who don’t, the former win, and typically by large margins. Models win because they possess capabilities that humans lack. Models can embed and leverage more data. Models can be tested, calibrated, and compared. And models do not commit logical errors. Models do not suffer from cognitive biases. They can, however, introduce or replicate human biases; that is one of the reasons for combining multiple models, or data dashboards. While applying one model is good, using many models — an ensemble — is better, particularly in complex problem domains. Here’s why: models simplify. So, no matter how much data a model embeds, it will always miss some relevant variable or leave out some interaction. Therefore, any model will be wrong. With an ensemble of models, you can make up for the gaps in any one of the models.| The first guideline for building an ensemble is to look for models that focus attention on different parts of a problem, different processes, different variables. A good second model consists of agents (people, organizations, communities, biomes). The second guideline borrows the concept of boosting. Ensemble classification algorithms, potential, weight, probability. For example a tsunami is a potential continue spread in a potential, its probably may be slight, but if it happens the damage is severe, on a high probability but low consequence. Boosting works best if you have lots of historical data on how your primary model performs.. Put differently, just as you would not surround yourself with yes men do not surround yourself with yes models, this being the primary a fatal weakness of biotrumpism. In summary, models, like humans, make mistakes because they fail to pay attention to relevant variables or interactions. Many model thinking overcomes the failures of attention of any single model. Obviously parademic is an assemblage of multiple models, but being addressed to wicked problems it is more complex with added complication that the models are not complimentary with data that is missed in other models, but disharmonious in that the models have very different perspectives of the same phenomena. To add to the cacophony one does not want to make them harmonious as paradoxical data would have to be ignored to make that happen. [Cartoon]. -181118-5.1-Fossil Fuels↓. Human behavior is filled with paradoxes. For example the current administration of the US is anti-vaccination implying disease is not a threat, and yet the same administration uses the rhetoric of diseased foreigners as part of the justification for its anti-migrant policies -180513-1.1B↓. If one tries to simplify this enigma, making it concise and logically consistent, and providing a clear explanation that leaves not questions unanswered, one is unable to model and is misrepresenting biotrumpism.
-1.2. With any biocalamity that involves mass fatalities in a relatively short time and small area, the system for managing the disposition of remains can quickly become overwhelmed. This necessitates atypical procedures such as temporary internment of bodies in mass graves and cremation. One should always be aware of local funeral practices, how strongly people feel about following these, and then work with local opinion leaders to allow for a temporary suspension of rules or other alternatives to avoid situations as happened during the West African Ebola when bodies were hidden and stolen, unsafe graves were covertly made, and those involved with safe burials were (and likely still are) ostracized -180513-1.1↓. In addition to the potential of resistance that will continue to propagate a pathogen through a population, burial teams and crematorium workers have been physically attacked and socially stigmatized. This is not a likely issue for the recent fires in California but could be for other parts of the US and world, Cremations Threaten Zimbabwe's Ancestral Spirits.
-2. ∩ Comedy and Strategy: Don’t Laugh, this Is Serious…OK Laugh. In 2014, somebody dared to write America’s Overlooked Strategic Asset: Artist’s. That’s not hard nosed foreign policy realism or hard science. Now two years later, we’re going a step further: It may well be that you cannot really understand what life is going to be like in the next 20 years unless you listen to what comedians have to say about it today. Comedy is an essential tool to understand everything from global trends to local politics for multiple reasons: The comedic process requires a rigorous understanding of your subject, similar to that of an analyst. It is the product of non linear thinking, usually using narrative and dialogue, to open minds to new ideas and to see the world around them more clearly. Humor is a symbiosis of drive, jealousy, heartbreak, and triumph. Comedy can offer the same and sometimes better insights than being analytical. Besides let’s face it, we all need a laugh now more than ever.
-3. Why 536 Was the Worst Year to Be Alive. Ask a medieval historian what year was the worst to be alive, and the answer is 536. Not 1349, when the Black Death wiped out half of Europe. Not 1918, when the flu killed 50 million to 100 million people. A fog plunged Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia into darkness, day and night – for 18 months. Temperatures in the summer of 536 fell 1.5°C to 2.5°C, initiating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell that summer in China; crops failed; people starved. The Irish chronicles record a failure of bread from the years 536–539. Then, in 541, bubonic plague struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. What came to be called the Plague of Justinian spread rapidly, wiping out a third to one half of the population of the eastern Roman Empire and hastening its collapse. -181118-5.1-Fossil Fuels↓.
-3.1. Gender Differences in Public Understanding of Climate Change. While political views play a strong role in Americans’ opinions on climate change, there are many other individual, social, and cultural factors that influence public understanding of the issue. Here we explore how views on climate change differ between men and women. A large body of research shows a small – but consistent – gender gap in environmental views and climate change opinions. On average, women are slightly more likely than men to be concerned about the environment and have stronger pro-climate opinions and beliefs. Scholars have proposed several explanations for this gender gap, including differences in gender socialization and resulting value systems (e.g., altruism, compassion), perceptions of general risk and vulnerability, and feminist beliefs including commitment to egalitarian values of fairness and social justice. Some researchers also note that some of the strongest gender differences are found in concern about specific environmental problems, particularly local problems that pose health risks. This is a different perception illusion that large odds against something happening implies that it will not happen. Instead this is a small difference (like 2 degree rise in climate) seems insignificant when in fact it is very significant. ¶ Climate Change Group Extinction Rebellion to Perform Rolling Roadblock Protests in York Tomorrow with women (gender not sex) have a slight difference in being more activist, A Record Number of Women Will Serve in Congress (With Potentially More to Come) a 3% change. That may not seem to be much of a precursor of a sea change, but if one considers that genetic sex difference between male and female is only 27 genes of the 20,000 human genes one may think differently. Those few genes cause a third of more of the other genes to behave differently. In a sense these 27 sex difference genes are catalysts (reagents and/or inhibitors) that are required for the 6333.33333 sex expression genes to be one or the other, without even considering the other influences of gender expression and the sexual interests and attractions. Whatever the cause/ catalysts (likely not DNA, perhaps a mRNA function) possibly a social catalyst for change (that may be real or may only exist as a social construct) [Cartoon], or there is an as yet unidentified interaction of genetics and the environment.
-Quote: Great things are not done by impulse, but by a series of small things brought together. – Vincent Van Gogh
-3.2. Communities with Culture of Volunteerism May Be Healthier. Seven of the leading causes of death are higher in Appalachia compared with the nation as a whole. But amid that grim news, there's some diversity in these statistics. When researchers analyzed all 420 counties in Appalachia, they found that 42 outperformed their statistical odds. A team of researchers has been studying why these communities are outliers. In all of the communities that researchers studied, a culture of sharing and volunteering were found to be essential in helping to improve health outcomes. Repeatedly we see that how people collaborate, how different organizations collaborate and work together and coordinate with each other, it rises up as one of the key ingredients in building a local culture of health, or even a statewide culture of health. Research shows that the quality of where one lives, learns, works, and plays can have a greater impact on health than having quick access to a doctor. Not to say that doctors aren't incredibly important when it comes to improving health, just that there is a lot more to keeping people healthy. The holiday season tends to have slow days for news -180902-2.1‡, -180513-1.1D↓, but this is not because nothing happens. There are probably the same number of news worthy events, but with less motivation to make unimportant events news. With a lack of reports and observations (and readers) there are fillers that normally would not be printed/ posted. One advantage is that due to the decrease of noise reports and makers there is time to reflect of previous news and find items usually missed, like this story. Because humans are involved the explanation for this phenomena is a complex combination of the above PDWN speculations and factors not known. In any case cooperation is hypothesized to be a better odds of surviving biocalamity than competition which may in the short term increase the odds of a group living longer in contrast to the groups the compete with -181118-5.1-Fossil Fuel↓, but eventually this will irreversible doom themselves as they are the last one standing against competition that is relatively stronger (and will also inevitably go extinct).
-4. Advocates Fight Culture of Secrecy In Post Hurricane Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico's governor pledged to run a transparent recovery process. But as billions of dollars are on its way, many say there are indications that transparency may not be a top priority. Given all that has happened – the rocky history between the US and its territory, underfunding, prior accusations of misusing public health HIV funds during the Zika Outbreak 170312-4.2¶, Maria Search back to -170917-1.3*>2‡ and the disaster of disaster response, arrests, investigation that may be political revenge – this isn’t unexpected behavior with abuse and non existent trust lasting decades, its Almost Like Praying -2-.
-5. This is a variation on biotrumpism’s wall [Cartoon], and use of the US Military -2- [Cartoon] 181104-1.4 to keep out diseased immigrants, 181125-VCP-Italy, <ADDED 180909-180701-1.1>6, prior to the 2018 election, and the stop the flights fear mongering prior to the 2014 election -2- -3- -4-. The US May Name Venezuela as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Here’s Why That Could Backfire, [Tweet], and like any competition to survive will escalate [Photo, Photo Elysium] -180513-1.1B, -181118-1-Smoke↓. It is possible that by isolating a country or population, one has only increased its potential of becoming a reservoir for a biological threat, Measles Now Endemic in Venezuela, that will continue to grow until it spillsover -181118-4↓, As Venezuela’s Health System Collapses Disease Spreads Beyond its Borders$. Which can be synergistically exacerbated (accelerated) with the lack of doctors on the borders, Thousands of Cuban Doctors Leave Brazil after Bolsonaro's Win, 181118-VCP-Brazil. | Contagions are not limited to pathogens, Fear, More than Hate, Feeds Online Bigotry and Real World Violence. -180513-1.1B↓, 181111-VCP-Venezuela. ¶ Then there is the correlation with the rise in supernatural explanation, magical thinking -180513-1.1↓ in the surreal biocalamity environment where assumptions on what can be depended on fail, or distrust in misunderstood ways of thinking are able to take prominence, Why Exorcisms Are on the Rise in America.
-*. The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR).
-6. Maryland College Student Dies of Virus That Killed 11 Kids in N.J. These are not biocalamities (though devastating to the parents), and the two geographically separated cases are probably unconnected, but the related media interest are parademic. The Maryland case would normally be only of local and the college involved interest. However, because it’s a tragic death of children – apologize to college students, but you are still kids – and that there has been media attention to the nosocomial -2- event in NJ, this got media attention. The article has a false implication of a trend, though in the event of a large number of immunocompromised population as happens with biocalamities, there could be a high mortality rate. Note also the subtle accusation that the Maryland case had been to a health clinic several times for help. This is certain to cause outrage, especially among those who have a priori suspicions about medicine and the state of health care. The Role of the Media and Media Hypes in the Aftermath of Disasters, Catastrophe on Camera: Why Media Coverage of Natural Disasters Is Flawed, The Media Exaggerates Negative News. This Distortion Has Consequences, Medicine in the Popular Press: The Influence of the Media on Perceptions of Disease, The Representation of Young People in the Media, Thank the Media in Part for Our Looming Climate Catastrophe, Time Is Running out (But Not for Some): Climate Change in the Media, *, 181125-VCP-USA. By in large journalists – or those who claim to be journalists, and are competing with the professional for audience – are aware of this and either use it for their agenda or compensate within the parameter of needing to get readers, and by writing about media hype. PDWN is likewise aware its sources of information are always biased in someway, not to mention having its own biases. How Global Journalists Investigated Medical Device Safety
-*. Inclusion of opinions, beliefs, information, data, speculation, etcetera in PDWN does not mean the curator is in agreement or that these are verifiable fact. Behavior is a statistical tendency to act in one way more often that in another way. The intent is to show the range of beliefs that inform how people will behave in given circumstances. This is always a range of possible behaviors (umbra, penumbra and antumbra [Diagram]), with the wide ranges of unknowns, of causes, of circumstances and of consequences; all that constantly interact internally and externally, to include with unknown influences, which modify the range of behavior expression over time.
-7. #Book November 24, 1859, Origin of Species Is Published [Cover, Cover]. The idea of organic evolution was not new. It had been suggested earlier by, among others, Darwin’s grandfather Erasmus Darwin, a distinguished English scientist, and Lamarck, who in the early 19th century drew the first evolutionary diagram – a ladder leading from one celled organisms to man. However, it was not until Darwin that science presented a practical explanation for the phenomenon of evolution. It would be fun to write a book review satire in The Onion, possibly as a series of excerpts from various publishers on how they would spin the book: Briebart -180902-2.1↓, Fox -2- -180902-2.1↓, NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, The Daily Mail (two reviews, the first that is against, the second years later that is for and claims they always were for it). In the meantime we have an access to the first reports by journalist about it. Reactions to On the Origin of Species, First Reviews -2-. The Saturday Review strongly criticised the methodology of Darwin's geological time calculations. Darwin wrote: "Some of the remarks about the lapse of years are very good, & the Reviewer gives me some good & well deserved raps, confound it I am sorry to confess the truth. But it does not at all concern main argument". In the third edition, Darwin cited the Saturday Review article as reason to remove his calculation altogether.
<ADDED 181125>
-181118-1-Missing/ Dead>1. -1↑. California Wildfires: Concern over Rain in Search Efforts, Frantic Search Goes on for Missing after California Wildfire, Rain Could Hamper Search for Victims of California Wildfire. 77 Killed In California's Camp Fire As Number Of Missing Drops To 993. Could the Northern California Fire Really Have Killed 1,000 People. The Staggering Number of Missing Haunts Paradise. We Need Hundreds: Fire Victims Families Urged to Give DNA. Why Number of Missing in California Fires Keeps Fluctuating. Heavy Rains Could Wash Away Human Remains in Paradise, Searchers Fear. Camp Fire: Two More Bodies Found, Bringing Death Toll to 83. Camp Fire Focus Shifting to Search for Additional Victims. | Bogus Meme Targets Red Cross [Meme].
-181118-1-Evacuation>2. -1↑. Despite Repeated California Fires and Other Disasters, Emergency Evacuations Keep Falling Short. Who's to Blame for Failure to Warn. Failure to Warn – Again in California. Sufficient warning is key to saving valuable documents and artifacts. This can be storage that is protection from the threat, shutting down in a way to make sure restart is possible, minimize maintenance needs to include operational and maintenance instruction and supplies when a area will be depopulated for an extended time, locking away to prevent misuse or theft, or move to a different location when the risks of transportation are less than leaving in place, Paradise’s Gold Nugget Museum Falls Victim to Camp Fire. Evacuation also needs to plan and prepare for Spontaneous Shelters: Ignore Them at You Peril.
-181118-1-Smoke>3. -1↑. Protective Masks Fly off Store Shelves in Wildfire Ravaged California, shortages of critical items are characteristic of parademic, though there doesn’t need to be a biocalamity if there is panic buying because of a perceived biothreat. Northern California Still Has Dangerous Air Quality Due to Wildfire Smoke, and just wait for when a wildfire encroaches into an urban area and cannot be stopped. Besides a massed force migration of millions from a small area -5↑ -180513-1.1B↓, the smoke will contain all the hazardous material found in city structures and infrastructure, Thousands of Homes Incinerated but Trees Still Standing: Paradise Fire's Monstrous Path, The Shifting Role of Cities in Addressing Global Climate Change. California Air Pollution Due to Wildfires Exceeded World Health Standards by 60 Times. Shortages of high demand critical items also means that costs for the item rises. Long Term Health Impacts of Wildland Fire Smoke. California’s Fires and Drought Are a Preview of Future, When Simultaneous Disasters May Become Commonplace. Breathing Dirty Air Takes Years off People’s Lives. This Tool Shows Just How Much, Delhi's Deadly Air Cuts Life Expectancy by 10 Years. Volunteers Head to the Fields of San Joaquin County to Help Farm Workers Breathe Easier, Many California Farmworkers Forced to Stay Behind During the Wildfires, Climate Change Is Making Florida’s Heat Dangerous for Farmworkers. Camp Fire's Bad Air Is Still Making People Sick. California’s Wildfires Could Mean a Generation of Lung Problems.
-A. No, The Coming Rain Won't Be Toxic. But Here's What To Do When The Smoke Clears. #Toxic Rain. Is Rain That Falls in Smoky Areas after a Wildfire Likely to Be Extremely Toxic [Tweet Look Up]. Growing Concerns about Toxic Rain and Ash from Woolsey Fire, an indicator that a story may not be based on evidence is when the words “study finds, scientists say, newly discovered, truth revealed, cover up” are used. This is even more the case when there is no report or person to link to or find in a search. No, We Aren’t Going to Get Toxic Rain from the #Campfire Smoke. Will There Be Acid Rain When Storm Washes Smoke Away from Bay Area Air. | Deception Detection and Rumor Debunking for Social Media, An Exploration of Social Media in Extreme Events: Rumor Theory and Twitter During the Haiti Earthquake 2010. The Never Ending Now. | One will also find that like other narratives it is existed previously but updated to the new circumstances Acid Rain Warning, which include half truths and distorted facts Acid Rain Starting to Affect Environment and Politics in West 1985, has an associated fictional literature that reflects the dread about such events Acid Rain World, “The Rain” Is a Gripping Apocalyptic Drama, but It’s a Bit Too Familiar. It is likely that rumor and opinion as fact has been debunked several times, caused panic before, and yet still persists despite evidence against, or that the predicted event did not happen, Panic over Acid Rain in Lagos. One will also find a complex history complicated by politics, Reagan, in Switch, Agrees to a Plan on Acid Rain 1988. This particular rumor that the forest fire will cause acid/ toxic rain will not become part of the biotrumpism narrative as fossil fuels contribute to acid rain and it already has a policy to roll back regulation of fossil fuel emissions -181118-5.1-Fossil Fuels↓. Then again, logical consistency isn’t a characteristic of acidnine/ toxigenic biotrumpism and its massacree -2-.
-B. Exposure to Air Pollution During Pregnancy Linked to Autism Diagnosis could be tested to see if there is a spike in autism in the area, though it is unknown what components of air pollution would be part of the perfect storm that facilitates autism. What Will Persuade Rice Farmers in Punjab to Stop Setting Fires in Their Fields.
-181118-2.1>4. Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un: Authoritarian Love in the Time of TB. Parabellum (the health and environmental damage caused by preparing for war or making defenses), 181118-2.1*. North Korean Food Shortages Leave Generations Stunted.
-181118-4>5. It is not possible yet to be certain what disease outbreaks will become epidemics and/or endemic. Will SARS return after the big splash it made. Will MERS spread. What if the reservoir for Ebola had been traced back after the first time it spilled over -5↑ to humans in 1976, rather than dropped as being unlikely to happen again -180513-1.1↓. What if more effort had been put into identifying the unknown causal agent of AFM four years ago when just a few children came down with it in a cluster, or the year after when more children got it in the same geographic region around the same time of year, or the next year when even more children had it..... Acute Flaccid Myelitis Task Force Formed as Confirmed Case Count Tops 100. Being a Watch For with PDWN is not a prediction, most of the time what PDWN is monitoring doesn’t pan out. In deciding to direct resources or not it is probably better to be the calm warrior, until there is enough evidence to support that resources should be direct. Even then it is likely that there will be complaints about wasted money if the effort is successful because the problem would be solved when small. On the other hand being conservative with effort could also open up one to criticism for not being proactive enough. South Dakota Officials Review Report of Paralyzing Illness. Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) Surveillance: Challenges and Opportunities from 18 Years’ Experience, Spain, 1998 to 2015. | New Model Predicts Which Animal Viruses May Spread among Humans gives an idea of which pathogens to watch, but still no idea when it may jump species or if it will become a zoodemic that could risk a human food source and livelihoods <ADDED 181104-181021-5>4. It would also be good to known what social contagions will become virulent movements that are detrimental to humanity, civilization and the biosphere.
-181118-5.1-Fossil Fuels>6. How Technological Progress Is Making it Likelier than Ever That Humans Will Destroy Ourselves, the vulnerable world hypothesis explained -181118-1-SmokeA -B, -1↑. Differs from anthropogenic in that anthropogenic means human caused harm/ change to the environment, while this hypothesis is a statement that an unknown degree of harm is caused by human action to other humans. It is doubtful this is a hypothesis as it is neither testable (can be subject to experiment), and that there is the possibility a test will show failure of the hypothesis, because the only proof is success (that is mass extinction). It also lacks a objective metric 181118-3.2, to compare and contrast to. What does Likelier mean. If there is a 1 in 100 chance of destruction .01 then one adds another event this is is .02% which is double the risk before, but still a low probability. If the chance is 50 in 100, it’s a 50/50 chance, still a risk but one can increase one’s odds of being in the safe half with skills, echo chambers -1.1↑ and physical protection; Wealth Cannot Save You from Climate Change though possibly buffered and protected for a time as other suffer INDEX Elite Bunkers* -3.2↑, with an cacoethes of being protected from consequences of one’s actions. Inversely if chances are 99.9 out of 100, like current conditions where there may already be a mass extinction happening <ADDED 181111>-181104-1.6>3, it is not certain doom. If there is .001 chance that happens, then there is 100% continued life. Climate Change Will Bring Multiple Disasters at Once, as if this has not been happening already$ -2- -3- -4-. Will We Survive Climate Change, there is no scientific support for inevitable doom, -3↑. Survey: Americans Doubt Their Ability to Impact Climate Change, Look to Companies to Lead. Colorful Maps Show How We've Transformed Earth's Surface Over the Past 25 Years, this would be more informative if it included urban anthrome gains and losses, human transportation and fauna migration routes human population densities, industries bell weather species ranges, thermomes (temperature ranges, therm+omes) fires, sea level rise, drought, flood (heavy precipitation) and if the data can be manipulated. 1.1B*↑
-Quote: We saved ourselves from extinction. But we never answered the question ¿Why?. Why are we as a people worth saving. We still commit murder because of greed and spite, jealousy, and we still visit all of our sins upon our children. We refuse to accept the responsibility for anything that we've done, comforting ourselves in the knowledge that it really wasn't our fault, not really. Sooner or later, the day comes when you can't hide from the things that you've done anymore. – Ronald Moore. Adama, Battlestar Galactica decommissioning speech, [Photo].
-*. Like exploitation of the situation for personal gain, self isolation is a consistent parademic behavior of biocalamities. This is not universal but segments of the population. Some who can afford to leave -2$- an area (possibly Mars -2-), or having nothing to lose by leaving**. Those who hunker down behind gates, walls, ideology, masks in the belief those will provide protection. People who deny the threat exists. Self isolation is an attempt to quarantine the rest of the world, overlaps with competition vs cooperation to continue to live, and is the pain or needs that can be exploited by those who can sell a credible solution. [Chart].
-**. Historically the very rich stay behind, and send other to make their fortune, while having to pay back with interest for the costs of being sent. This will usually include a management government level to protect the investment. When this frontier is civilized, safe and comfortable enough, the rich follow, only risking money, which is probably insured or covered by others peoples money like stocks or taxes.
-181111-4‡>7. [Cartoon, Cartoon]. It’s a Twitter War: Doctors Clash with NRA over Gun Deaths. Trauma Surgeon Creates Twitter Account to Organize Doctors Against Gun Violence. Milwaukee Girl Who Condemned Gun Violence Is Killed by Bullet.
-181118-VCP-China>8. China Worries about Hog Supply as African Swine Fever Reaches Beijing, Swine Fever Adds to China’s Economic Headaches, China's Xiamen Airlines to Stop Serving Pork on Flights Due to African Swine Fever, China Confirms African Swine Fever Outbreak in Inner Mongolia Region, China Cracks down on African Swine Fever Reporting to tighten notification, incentives for whistle blowers, amid concerns that outbreaks of the highly contagious disease are being under reported, China Says to Take Tough Steps to Fight African Swine Fever; In China, a Deadly Strain of Bird Flu Now Easily Infects Ducks, China Reports H5N6 Bird Flu Outbreak in Jiangsu Province. This may indicate that China has reversed course about information sharing related to infectious disease (not to mention an expanding zoodemic), indicating “saving face” was not the issue, but the economic advantage of having a sample no one else has, 180902-VCP, 180916-VCP-Global. In part because of the Trade War, China may be more disinclined to share samples that could be used against them economically, or as a leverage for concessions, For over a decade, epidemiological data and samples have been used as trade war pawns$. Coupled with the policy of exacerbating belligerency U.S. Flies Bombers over South China Sea amid Heightened Tensions with Beijing, and the a priori China’s False Allegations of the Use of Biological Weapons by the United States During the Korean War could easily be spun that the US is using bioweapons against China, especially if there is a disease or pest outbreak, 181007-7, 180311-6. | The Russian Disinformation Attack That Poses a Biological Danger, 181111-VCP-USA, Russian Disinformation and the Georgian Lab of Death, 181007-7, 181021-VCP-Georgia.
-180902-2.1>9, <ADDED 181118>3. Why Is a Climate Change Skeptic Headlining Science Conferences. Peter Ward’s arguments about the source of climate change have been denounced by scientists. That hasn’t stopped him from presenting his ideas at prominent conferences. What Really Causes Global Warming. Volcanoes: A Forge for Climate Change. The Models Are Too Conservative: Paleontologist Peter Ward on What Past Mass Extinctions Can Teach Us About Climate Change Today. Greenhouse Gases Simply Do Not Absorb Enough Heat to Warm Earth, Climate Change Consensus Is Politics – Debate Is Science. Apparently anyone without a specific degree in a topic can create a blog and pontificate on it.
-‡. Law of Soot Light Absorption: Current Climate Models Underestimate Warming by Black Carbon Aerosol. ¿Buried? Feds to Release Major Climate Report Day after Thanksgiving -3.2↑, -180513-1.1D↓, Federal Report Sounds Alarm on Growing Impact of Climate Change, A Government Climate Study Contradicts the President$, Major Trump Administration Climate Report Says Damages Are Intensifying Across the Country, A Grave Climate Warning, Buried on Black Friday, Climate Change Is Already Hurting U.S. Communities, Federal Report Says, Government Climate Report Warns of Worsening US Disasters, 12 Scary Takeaways from the Climate Report the Trump Administration Dropped on Black Friday – and One Reason for Hope, Climate Change Could Cost US Hundreds of Billions a Year, Report Outlines Problems U.S. Will Likely Face from Climate Change, Ocasio-Cortez Reacts to Climate Change Report: People Are Going to Die -7↑, Climate Report Warns of Grim Economic Consequences, Worsening Weather Disasters in US -7↑, US Government Report Says Climate Change Exacerbating Disasters, Buried on Black Friday, Climate Report Still Turns Heads, When Will We Accept That Climate Change Is Real, Americans Will Pay Billions More for Climate Change, and That’s the Best Case, GOP Senator Calls for Balance after Climate Change Report, Government Climate Report Lays out How Screwed We Are If We Don’t Act Now, Ben Sasse Slams Climate Change Alarmism, Sasse Says Conversation Needed on Climate Change Solutions, Trump Administration’s Strategy on Climate: Try to Bury Its Own Scientific Report; #Document Fourth National Climate Assessment. Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States. in The findings are not new but have been suppressed -2- for years, New Study Too Frightening to Release 1999. Horns of a Dilemma: The Intersection of Global Fragility, and Climate Risks, Stretched Thin: When Fragile States Face Climate Hazards, which exacerbate disease vectors and foster improved conditions for pathogens to thrive, Reported Tick Diseases Hit All Time High. Climate Change Has Created a Storm of Uncertainty. These Researchers Are Making Sense of It.
-180513-1.1>10, <ADDED 181118>5. Polemic 181118-2.1*. WHO Director General: Violence in DRC Is Allowing Ebola to Spread. Do You Know the Right Way to Wash Your Hands. Watch this Video Aimed at Halting Ebola. WFP Continues Aid Despite Latest Deadly Attacks in Beni. No, it Isn’t Time to Cede the Field to Endemic Ebola Virus Disease in the DRC. -1.2↑, 181125-VCP-DRC. Congo Confirms near Record Number of New Ebola Cases on Wednesday. Ebola in Congo Now Infecting Newborn Babies, UN Says. | Just a speculation but previously DRC used Heartless but Effective: I've Seen 'Cordon Sanitaire' Work Against Ebola -2-, can be applied in a conflict situation, which are hostile and unfriendly, and worse unpredictable. The humanitarian approach of quarantine and treatment has better incomes in areas of operation that are permissive and friendly, where lacks and unknowns can be overcome <ADDED 181007-170730-11>11. In conflict areas a humane approach is not just ineffective but possibly facilitates the spread of Ebola which is already finding conflict a good environment to thrive. This liminal situation puts medical assets and resources at risk with limited benefit, while at the same time this partial containing and controlling creates different health vulnerabilities. MSF Base Robbed in South Kivu. Ebola Outbreak in Congo Getting Close to Becoming 2nd Biggest Ever. Another Deadly Consequence of Climate Change: The Spread of Dangerous Diseases$, Climate Change and Ebola Outbreaks: Are They Connected, Is Climate Change Key to the Spread of Ebola, How Climate Change Is Exacerbating the Spread of Disease, [Poster]. There is a synergy between Ebola and Climate Change that exacerbates the harm of the other, but neither causes the other.
-A. Climate Change Is Aggravating the Suffering in Yemen. Overly dense population from fleeing the civil war, using food as a weapon of war, available tillable land and access to clean water decreasing. It is not that climate change itself is causing the [hunger] crises. It is that climate change is increasing the suffering of the people. Rural areas are able to grow crops but climate change impacts on their ability to survive during conflict. In the past, villages would store enough food to last for three or four months in times of emergency. In recent years less rainfall, resulting in reduced harvests, means little if any food is stored for periods of crisis. 85,000 Young Children May Have Died from Starvation in Yemen, going beyond starving an enemy out of a strong defense position, to starving them out from a future. | Then there is the continuing Health Structures Threatened by Fighting in Hodeidah. What's the Responsibility of Doctors When it Comes to Yemen. Disease and Famine as Weapons of War in Yemen.
-B. Brazil and Venezuela: A Storm Brewing in Roraima. -5↑ Over the last three years, approximately 1.6 million Venezuelans, suffering from recession, repression, and lacking access to basic amenities such as foodstuffs and medicine, have fled the country. This has caused crises in countries bordering Venezuela. Local residents have attacked Venezuelan refugees, burning their belongings, a lynching in response to a theft, causing them to flee back across the border for their own safety. Violence aimed at migrants is not unusual, nor the use of military forces -2- to expel or keep them out [Cartoon] -1.1B*, -5, -181118-1-Smoke↑, 181125-VCP-Italy. It is also possible that by blockading (isolating) and/or defeating a country militarily one has only increased its potential of becoming a hidden reservoir for a biological threat that will continue to grow until it spills over$, The US May Name Venezuela as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Here’s Why That Could Backfire, [Tweet].
-C. Climate Change Ukraine -2- -3- -4- -5-. Ukraine Using Russia Conflict as Excuse for Climate Inaction -2-. The Twitter War: Social Media's Role in Ukraine Unrest and like the use of antivax sentiments by Russia to undermine public health in the Ukraine, it is not hard to imagine using climate change denial in the same way.
-D. I’m skeptical of this. This is Cuban Sonic Attack like, <ADDED 181104-180311-6>9, smacking of magical thinking -5↑, and conspiracy. It is not credible that this is the first time a US embassy in a undeveloped hostile, uncertain, unfriendly country like the DRC has not had a heighten security posture and travel restrictions due to information. Rumors tend to have specific details that add credibility, and when one is in an information environment that is both a vacuum of valid information, and dense with misinformation, it becomes difficult to verify information as valid or not. The combination of erring on the side of caution when uncertain about validity, the stress of an Ebola syndemic, being the embassy that is a symbolic target, the isolation of what is essentially an outpost, reports of attack in the DRC and elsewhere, and a slow news day probably formed a perfect storm for this story to draw attention and go viral -3.2, -180902-2.1‡↑, U.S. Says Receives Credible Terrorist Threat Against Facilities in Congo.
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