1. Environment, 1.1. Climate Threat Assessment, 1.2. Winter Warfare, 2. Health, 3. Hot Zones, 3.1. DR Congo, A. Cultural Key, 3.2. Venezuela, 3.3. India-Pakistan, 3.4. North Korea, 4. Future War, 4.1. CRISPR. 5. Bio/Chem HQ. Previous week 190217-Polemic
Water, Bio/Chem, Self Verifying Information, CBRN, Syria, Middle East, Biotech, Magical Thinking
-1. Environment: Climate Change an Imminent Security Threat, Risk Experts Say. Climate Change Will Fuel More Wars and Displacement in the Middle East. Note that these are repeating what other sources have said 190217-Polemic-1. Whether correct or not constant repetition of the same narrative, sometimes the exact same one, does tend to give the appearance of validity. Independent verification would be news sources from the Mideast with direct accounts, and justification of actions are because of the “West’s” harm to health and environment. [Cartoon].
-1.1 Climate Change and National Security: Jackson School to Hold Public Discussion March 6 Featuring Gov. Jay Inslee Climate change alone will not cause wars, but it serves as an ‘accelerant of instability’ or a ‘threat multiplier’ that makes already existing threats worse -3.3↓. White House Panel Will Study Whether Climate Change Is a National Security Threat. It Includes a Climate Denialist, 190224-1‡. From the US to the Netherlands, Military Leaders Are Speaking up on Climate Change -2-. 190224-2. New Paper Says That Cascading Environmental Risks Could Lead to Societal Breakdown.
-1.1. US Steps up Winter Warfare Training as Global Threat Shifts. With increased moisture in the air and rapid shifts of the jet streams this is likely to be a military operating environment. It will also have the complication of rapid shifts in weather, melting snow and making every soldier’s favorite, mud, within the span of a few days. These then will freeze again into battlefield ice rinks, and warm again. -4↓, WAR you want to fight. Moscow Warns US: Russian Special Forces Are Training for Arctic Conflict, and it won’t necessarily be a frozen wasteland we know today, but a major shipping area.
-2. Health: N/A
-3. Operations in Hot Zones: Areas where there is a concurrent health and/or environmental syndemic.
-3.1. DR Congo: Zambia Steps up Ebola Screening at Border with DRC. Butembo-Beni: More than 500 Contacts and Some 30 Ebola Victims Receive Food in Maboya, if you want people not to break quarantine, or otherwise stay within a border, at a minimum they need food and water. Aid Agency MSF Suspends Work in Eastern DR Congo, outside of Ebola zone, but inside the conflict one. To Stop Ebola, Ask the Rebels to Help. More Ebola in DRC as Nurse's Murder Halts Efforts in Vuhovi. 190224-VCP-DRC. AFRICOM Adds Logistics Hub in West Africa, Hinting at an Enduring US Presence clearly intended for military purposes, but if there isa future pandemic infectious diseases outbreak, this may also be the logistics hub for that. <ADDED 190224-180513-1.1>.
-*A. A Medical History and Anthropological Perspective of Africa provides some insights into operations there, specifically the intermixing of what would be called magical thinking in Western society, 190224-3. Animals, Prey, and Enemies: Hunting and Killing in an African Counter Insurgency. Mobile Soldiers and the Un National Liberation of Southern Africa. Ebola and Emergency Anthropology: The View from the Global Health Slot. One caution, there is no single or small cluster of cultural keys, the concept that with a few key insights about the ethos of a culture, that one can understand and explain all behavior in that culture. At best a \fs24ulcultural key may allow successful cross cultural interaction and avoiding faux paus, but it is only an entrance to a warehouse of insights, some that are still locked in boxes or lost in obscure areas behind other things. In a conflict milieu, these little details can make all the difference. 171203-6.
-3.2. Venezuela: Where Climate Change Fits into Venezuela’s Ongoing Crisis. Venezuela: Malaria Cases Top 1.3 Million in 2018, According to Global Health Organizations, Venezuela Crisis Threatens Disease Epidemic Across Continent, Venezuela's Humanitarian Crisis, Resurgence of Vector Borne Diseases, and Implications for Spillover in the Region, Venezuela Crisis Could Spark Surge in Infectious Diseases. Severely Ill Children Left in Limbo by Venezuela-US Crisis. Venezuela: Region’s Infectious Crisis Is a Disaster of Hemispheric Proportions. Resurgence of Vaccine Preventable Diseases in Venezuela as a Regional Public Health Threat in the Americas. | These syndemics are the background for what could be considered provocation in the guise of humanitarian aid, -3- -4- -5- -6-. When Humanitarian Aid Is Used as a Weapon to Bring Down Regimes. Venezuela's Guaido Calls for Million Volunteers in Aid Standoff. Venezuelans Brace for Tense Aid Delivery Bid. Pinera's Colombia Border Trip Carries Risks for Chilean Leader.Aid Is Piling up on Venezuela's Border. Here's Why It's Not Getting In. Maduro Shuts Venezuela's Border with Brazil amid Aid Standoff, Venezuela's Maduro Orders Closure of Brazilian Border. | Aid Wars: US-Russia Vie to Ease Venezuelan Crisis, China Praises Venezuela, Joins Russia Against U.S. Brigade of Volunteers Vow to Bring Aid to Venezuela’s Needy. Venezuelan Army Stops Guaido as He Heads to Site of Aid Effort. Deadly Violence Erupts on Brazil Border in Venezuela Aid Showdown$, -2- -3- -4- -5- -6- -7- -8- -9- -10-, <ADDED 181125-180513-1.1>10B. 190224-Polemic-3.2, Venezuela Navy Threatened to "Open Fire" on U.S. Financed Aid Ship, Puerto Rico's Governor Says. Clean up Begins on Venezuela-Colombia Border after Unrest. ADDED 190224-181209-4>.
-A. Trump Confirms All Violent Options on the Table in Venezuela, [Cartoon, -2- -3- -4- -5- -6- -7- -8- -9-, -10- -11- -12-, clash with military and militias will probably be posted on net next week]. Two concepts to introduce here. 1) Poe’s Law, the idea that something meant as something not to be taken seriously, is taken seriously, likely with dire consequences. 2) Humor is not necessarily funny but a ludicrous juxtaposition, an inappropriate observation (too soon, sick) that is at the same time very apt and ad rem. It is also a means to say what may otherwise be censored or teach something that otherwise would be ignored. For the purposes of Polemic, humor in all its forms is data that provides a variety of perspectives, interpretations, spin, attitudes, that are not otherwise noted in media.
-3.3. India-Pakistan: Water Wars: Are India and Pakistan Heading for Climate Change Induced Conflict, and is this version repetition or separate observation. WOTR’s Drivers, Decisions, Dilemmas: Understanding the Kashmir Crisis and its Implications focuses on the human factors, doesn’t note water as a driver of conflict -1.1↑, but there are previous observations that this watershed, divided politically not geographically between two competing national jurisdictions, is a contributing factor: Water Security the New Front in Kashmir Struggle Between India, Pakistan 2010, Kashmir and the Politics of Water 2011, Kashmir: A Water War in the Making 2016, Kashmir Water Crisis Hits at its Staple: Rice 2018, Who Will Control Kashmir’s Water 2018, The Water in Kashmir Bloodshed 2019. India Reiterates Plan to Stop Sharing Water with Pakistan, India Threatens a New Weapon Against Pakistan: Water.
-3.4. North Korea: Top North Korean Official Says His Country Faces Major Food Shortages, Blaming Weather and Sanctions, North Korea Cutting Food Rations By Almost Half, Says Weather and Sanctions Have Contributed to Food Shortage. Unknown at this time if this will lead to a forced migrations, or North Korea starting a war. What is certain is the possibility of CBRN, refugees and internally displaced people who are malnourished and diseased (and propagandized), with an operational area that has already had major environmental damage and toxic threats. Then include a humanitarian disaster that makes Venezuela look simple -3.2↑ one has a situation that no sane person would want.
-3.5. Sudan: Outbreak of Disease in Jebel Marra. It is a given that if there is an armed conflict, health infrastructure will be overwhelmed, likely will collapse, and disease outbreaks will follow. Unfortunately if this is concurrent with an instability there will also be exploitation (medical scams, black market, corruption) medical surges that can overwhelm health infrastructure and attacks on medical, Sudan Doctors: 13 Injured in Thursday’s Demos. 181028-VCP-Sudan.
-4. Future Warfare. 190224-2 China's Biotech Industry Poses Threat to US National Security. Nowhere to Hide: The Logic of Chemical Weapons Use in Syria
-4.1. CRISPR is a new technology with a dual use problem. Faster, Better, Cheaper: The Rise of CRISPR in Disease Detection.
-5. 190224-2 -2.1. Bio/Chem defense and offense.
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