1. Coming Changes to PDWN, 1.1. Communicating Uncertainty, 2. Culture, 3. Fight, Flight or Embrace, 3.1. Mass Fatality Vaccines, 3.1. Vax Gas, 4. Harry Potter Redeux, 4.1. GMO Redeux = Framine, 5. Ecocide, 5.1. Not Yet at Economic Tipping Point, 5.2. Emergency/ Catastrophe, 5.3. Economic Response, 6. Disrupting Inertia, 7. Intentional Oil Spill, 8. State Pollution Rights, 9. Securitization
Other Topics: BioPolitics, Vaccine, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Climate Change, Anthropocene, Anthropogenic, Communication, One Health, Environmental Change, Human Factors, Social Dimensions, Narratives, Infectious Disease, Moral Panics, Disinformation, Blame, Magical Thinking, Evidence, Nostradamus, Cognitive Dissonance, Denial of Evidence, Memetic, SB 276, Unintended Consequences, Gaslighting
-1. Based on the parademic listibase, the trends toward global biocalamities are inexorably continuing toward acceleration and tipping points, even if there are significant changes. A combination of crashes will be followed by global deceleration (mass dies offs, regional wide habitat loss -2-) that will cascade into other others systems of the biosphere and social spheres. This is no longer a matter that “if nothing changes this is what will happen”. Even if human behavior changes drastically, the current biosphere calamity trends will continue the current momentum until they can no longer be sustained. | Add that there are now sufficient examples of Parademic to provide skills, methodology and data to transition into application for an ultimate of uncertain conditions, the unknowns of “what happens after a cataclysm”. PDWN will be sharpening its focus toward tools for analysis of behavior in the context of biocalamity, new information that is not a continuation of a previous trend unless significantly evolved to no longer have a clear connection with the earlier form of the trend, or will eventually change the direction of trends.
-A. It is presumed that if one is reading PDWN via internet, they can access more material on the same topics to go more in depth, and can or already have learned to recognize gaps in information, with the ability to develop questions for what is not answered and how to proceed to answer these. | This narrower focus will result in PDWN being even more incomplete on the larger contexts of biopolitics -2- -3- -4- and bioeconomics -5.3↓. This focus will leave even more questions unasked, but hopefully this lack will encourage finding one’s own data. | It was already the practice of PDWN to not include relevant clinical and technical data. Unless this information is likely to change behavior or outcomes will still be included, but information necessary to understand a biocalamity is likely not to be included.
-B. The diminishing context will have less history and longue duree that inform about how did we get into the present circumstances and situations [Strip, Quote]. If the previous 10 years of the listibase are an indication, there are always precursors of current concerns and topics. In fact its very likely that current biocalamities and parademics have been noted and reported on before, sometimes decades, centuries or more. With this relatively shorter format and narrower focus, material will be far more likely to be cherry picked; that is choosing fewer links to information with emphasis of those that support the point being made, and items that are contrary selected because they still support the thesis, or give the appearance of being objective and balanced by offering alternative interpretations. It is assumed that this is not a logical fallacy to prove something because readers of PDWN habitually practice questioning both data and conclusions, or completely reject PDWN.
-C. It’s not always the case, but it has been observed that referral to past forecasting of a current disaster is part of the politics of blame -2- -3-, taking an observation out of its context and the applying it to a different context, in some cases repurposing. It is a useful analogue to take a past observation and carry its trend forward to a current circumstance, but always temper with the recognition it is not necessarily a direct relation. To not critically examine how and past observation applies, and does not apply, to current observations is to court the Nostradamus Effect (i.e. magical thinking), [Meme, Cartoon -2- -3-]. An original past observation could very well have been noting what at the time was an anomalous, novel event or the equivalent of science fiction, not necessarily influencing the systems of the time. Though these observations and speculation are relevant now, they may not always have been part of the trend that cascades toward the current circumstances.
-D. Trends are not the same principle as uniformitarianism. Uniformitarianism applies to the closed systems of non living physical processes. Application of uniformity of precesses to living open systems of the bio and social spheres is inappropriate, except as analogue. The bio and social spheres are wicked systems that have unaccounted for processes which render forecasting questionable. Any conclusions drawn and decisions made solely based on PDWN will likely be missing key contexts of the interactions of history, economics, relations, politics, personalities, different worldviews, and more. Any actions based on partial information and unexamined assumptions are likely to have dangerous unintended consequences. These unforseen or ignored consequences might not manifest for decades or more, indeed much of the anthropogenic consequences of now originated deep in human history. This risk is insidious because at the time the policies and actions are based on demonstrably logical and empirical conclusions, at least to those who are implementing them.
-1.1. The Nature and Effects of Uncertainty Frames in Science Communication. Uncertainty is native to science and thus also to wholly accurate science communication, However, uncertainties that are inevitable in individual findings of science and in larger processes of science are often not clearly communicated to the public. Instead, many public facing science communicators purposefully avoid discussing the uncertainties that are attached to the science they communicate – often out of fear of adverse effects of those uncertainty frames. To date, it has remained unclear whether these fears are well founded. Scientific knowledge is never complete and is never certain. There are always more questions to be answered and more answers to be questioned. Does mentioning the uncertainties that accompany science findings affect perceptions of the science and scientists. The answer is mostly no. Communicating Uncertainty: Fulfilling the Duty to Inform. To My Fellow Climate Scientists: Be Human, Be Brave, Speak Truth. Communicating Uncertainty.
-A. It is a speculation of PDWN’s that uncertainty in science is why absolutists tend to reject science. The need for absolute certainty tends to lead to poor decisions and planning to conditions that are uncertain, such as conflict, disaster and biocalamity. This need even leads to inventing data while suppressing contrary evidence. A recent example is a doctored map of the cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Dorian [Map -2-], which produced a range of mocking about sharpiegate that spilled into other absolutist narratives, [Meme -2- -3- -4- <ADDED 190414-190407\fs24fs24 -6>1, -5- -6- -7-]. | This may also explain in part why authoritarian absolutists have a proclivity for creating chaos. Creating uncertainty improves conditions to enact questionable policy, implement dubious actions, neutralizes opposition, and it is naturally to assume that other people are as thrown by uncertainty as much as they are.
-2. Cultural Awareness, Competence and Knowledge in medical settings are not similes but different skills and capabilities. Likewise these are not always related to adroitness with human relations and ability to provide effective medical services. What Does it Mean to Be Culturally Competent, Cultural Competence, Cultural Awareness in Healthcare: A Checklist, Assessing Students’ Sociocultural Knowledge Frameworks Through Concept Mapping. [Cartoon].
-3. I Propose That We Grow up a Little Bit: Biohackers Grapple with When to Reject Mainstream Science – and When to Embrace It. This is a conundrum in science. Balancing trust in science orthodoxy and consensus balanced, against the fact that advances in science are frequently based on new evidence that questions what is known to be true. These two facts are used to question science by claiming ones fallacious ideas are being questioned by the orthodox. Galileo Gambit -2- -3- -4-. [Cartoon, Photo]. One way to identify if something is a Galileo fallacy or legitimate science based debate is if there is a practice of resorting to other logical fallacies, diversionary rhetoric, gaslighting$ (to include using the opposition’s accusations as your own), and conspiracy theory. Will SB276 Revoke Legitimate Medical Exemptions, Reactions to SB 276 Passing the Assembly. Contrasting Climate Denial with Evidence Based Galileo -2- -3-. [Cartoon]. Science Was Wrong Before.
-3.1. Andrew Wakefield Predicts a Mass Extinction Due to Vaccines in the Pages of – Where Else – JPANDS. One of the effective tools for gaslighting are currently licenced and former MDs who go against accepted medical consensus about vaccines, “professional” organizations, The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons -2- -3-, and journals, JPANDS. This is a [Meme] that is just as absurd as the claim that extinction will happen from vaccines, though if we are in the start of a 6th mass extinction one will have “proof” they were correct and no one to contradict the claim. Earth Has Survived Extinctions Before, It's Humans Who Are Fragile.
-3.2. Other claims made for the willing to believe are: Are the Measles Outbreaks in New York a Hoax, why do some folks think that the measles outbreaks in New York are a hoax, using the gaslighting and othering techniques common to nationalist movements [Flyer]. | The Myth That Measles Never Left, which is probably related to the narrative of (Polio) was already burning out when the vaccine was introduced -2-, and in anticipation of the US losing its measles free status, 190901-Vaccine-4. Measles Outbreaks and Political Crises Go Hand in Hand, if you want to know where measles is a problem, look for countries with rising populist parties -2- -3- -4- -5- -6-. | Which Part of the Herd Gets Protected by Community Immunity, focusing on a word that has one definition in the public health context, but has negative connotations in other contexts, sheeple.
-4. Nashville Catholic School Pulls Harry Potter Books over Curses and Spells, Harry Potter Books Removed from Catholic School on Exorcists' Advice. Religious Debates over the Harry Potter Series. This is a wave from a previous moral panic narrative about Harry Potter – <ADDED 170709-170326-5.1> – and not a biocalamity. It’s of parademic interest because it may indicate other parademic behaviors and magical beliefs that can harm health – Nashville Health Officials Want To Rein In Religious Exemption To Vaccines, Where and Why Are Kids Not Being Vaccinated for Measles in Knoxville, Tennessee Scientists Weighed Response to Antivax Politician, Parents Concerned about Measles Outbreak; State Disconnects Hotline after 400 Calls – and environment – ALEC Climate Change Denial Model Bill Passes in Tennessee, Climate Change Study Finds Big Changes for Tennessee Cities in 2080.
-A. Waves of a narrative are not definitive indicators, and may merely indicate a cluster of a belief. Where it becomes more definitive is the context: Is the cluster also associated with anthropogenic behaviors; Does the cluster have influence if not outright control of government; Is there possible astroturfing to use the cluster as a disinformation front, UK Teenagers Targeted by Russia Trolls; Are there local industrial (major source of income and livelihood) practices that harm the environment and weaken public health; Is the deleterious behavior observed over time and normalized; and is the behavior seen in other clusters Harry Potter Books Burned by Polish Priests Alarmed by Magic [Photo]. A moral panic may also be indicative of collapse of anthropogenic behaviors that are based on magical thinking and fear mongering. In the face of mounting contrary evidence and loses in legislation and court, a moral panic against an emotional evoking target can provide the illusion of a much needed win, as a diversion from other issues, People Rip School for Banning Harry Potter, Not Guns, and/ or as part of what may appear to be a completely unconnected issue, a seepage of narratives that blend the two, and conflict as when Here's What Happens When Political Bubbles Collide: Evangelical Leader Suggests Teaching Evolution Contributes to Mass Shootings -2- 2012 vs -3-.
-B. The question remains, why was Harry Potter Satanic Panic resurrected now, Is JK Rowling in League with the Devil. A History of Harry Potter Inspired Satanic Panic. Will this continue to propagate, will there be repurposing, [Icon]. If this wave continues will there will be: Sharpening with over emphasis of magic as evil and othering of those who read the series; Leveling by ignoring the overall story line of resistence to an authoritarian purity [Photo]; Assimilation to other narratives of blame -2- -3-; and, Inventions of claims about the series that are divorced from any fact that can be found in the books, for example there is nothing in the books that could be considered a complete magical spell, much less the books being a grimoire. >>SLAI 190616-Polemic-5.2.
-C. It is also common in parademic related to biocalamity that an evil supernatural force is involved, not limited to undeveloped countries. Gay People to Blame for Hurricane Harvey, No, a 1988 Exorcism Didn’t Happen in this House That Survived Hurricane Ike. These likewise can become the basis of moral panics. Moral panics can divert resources from a problem, create a problem that does not exist, and cause additional problems with polemics (attacks) on people, medical, science, and far more casualties than would have been the case otherwise, 190623-Vaccine-4, 181111-VCP-DRCongo.
-D. A puzzling characteristic of magical thinking, conspiracy theory, irrational behavior, is the anosognosia (in the parademic context this means denial of evidence) that logically should lead to debilitating cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance does not necessarily result in a psychosis. When evidence does not fit ones accepted beliefs of what is fact, the dissonance can lead to a eureka of understanding that harmonizes the apparent paradox, rejection of the evidence by finding how it is flawed, or avoiding the dissonance completely as something ineffable. Denial of evidence, persisting to behave in ways that are self destructive, self delusion, and justification of falsehoods as serving a greater good, are in some cases a way to cope with and even avoid cognitive dissonance. [Strip, Cartoon -2-].
-E. It is rare to find the origin of any narrative, in fact I am not aware of any narrative that the origin has not been lost in prehistory. They appear to go dormant, sharing but are in some reservoir, a memetic waiting to break out again when conditions are right. [Cartoon -2-, Art].
-4.1. Future Proofing Cereals for Climate Change Drought Conditions may help but if GMO Denial Based on Moral Absolutism, Not Rational Analysis continues, famine is an absolute certainty, because GMO research delay will either prevent it reaching a desirable goal, or delay definitive evidence that it will not work, not allowing time to research an alternative. Frankenstein Foods. Genetically Modified Foods Can Deliver Great Benefits. It Would Be Wrong to Slow Their Development, Genetic Modification. Designed Super Shrimp Could Increase Yield, Help Prevent Disease.
-5. From Heat Waves to Eco Apartheid: Climate Change in Israel-Palestine. While Israel's nascent climate justice movement tries to get the public's attention, Palestinians remain the most vulnerable to the dangerous effects of climate change. Due to the existing power imbalance, working together seems next to impossible. Climate Apartheid: World's Poor to Suffer Most from Disasters. Desire to protect oneself first, and avoiding the costs of protecting others, is probably why there is reluctance to provide environmental meditation and access to medical care. This is probably a largely unintentional consequence of environmental change as a mephetic (bad for life), though there are examples of gubergenic intentional harm to impoverished, political opponents, and those who are “not us”. As Rising Heat Bakes U.S. Cities, the Poor Often Feel it Most, Investigation: Urban Poor Hit Hardest as the Planet Heats Up, People of Color and the Poor Disproportionately Exposed to Air Pollution. Trees Are Key to Fighting Urban Heat – but Cities Keep Losing Them, and many poor urban neighborhoods are starting at a disadvantage. Climate Change, Poverty and Human Rights: an Emergency Without Precedent. Baltimore's Climate Divide. Dikeotomy: A dike that separates a neighborhood, protecting some homes and leaving others on the wet side, a play on dike and dichotomy. Heart Failure Deaths Highest in Poorest US Counties. There is nothing new about unequal access to health and marginalized people having to live in toxic areas. What is new is the potential spill over is no longer restricted to social uprisings, now the spill over is also biological and former means of protecting the privileged are no longer sufficient to self isolated from ill effects, for instance N23O" Microplastics Turning up in Human Stool.
-5.1. The Deadly Hidden Risks Within the Most Prominent Economic Model of Climate Change. Is climate change* a crisis demanding immediate aggressive action to smash down carbon emissions, or is it an annoying inconvenience that can be dealt with slowly over decades. Most climate scientists are in the former camp, but many economists are in the latter camp, taking a relatively cavalier attitude about climate change. They have built models showing the economic damage of warming will not be that great, or that the costs of mitigation could be even greater, and therefore we shouldn't be too aggressive in keeping emissions down – which could be even worse than doing nothing, by their lights. In other words, use market mechanisms to gradually wean our existing economic structures off fossil fuels, but foregoing any sort of massive intervention that would disrupt the status quo. These models, however, have some hellishly risky assumptions buried deep in their guts. If we take the economists' advice, we will be taking a terrific gamble with all of human society, not to mention all life on Earth. Damage Estimates Don’t Capture the Full Cost of Climate Change Fueled Disasters. Putting a Price on Carbon Pollution Alone Unlikely to Help Reach Climate Goals. | Not the same person as the first article but the antipode trend. Martin Weitzman, Virtuoso Climate Change Economist, Dies at 77. his latest research was largely focused on environmental economics, specifically climate change and the economics of catastrophes. The Man Who Got Economists to Take Climate Nightmares Seriously, Climate Change: The World Is Worse off Without this Man’s Voice. [Cartoon].
-*. The curator of PDWN still insists that the terms climate change, climate crisis, global warming, extreme weather storms, severely downplay the biosphere catastrophic collapse. The whole environment is changing, not just the atmosphere. Gases, compared to the other state of matter that make up the goosphere, are more fluid and mutable making the anthropogenic affects the first to break the liminal threshold to human awareness. However, everything that current living habitats – micro through macro biomes and the anthrome – rely on are changing at accelerating rates. Organic and social change are unable to adapt quickly enough, and less capable of recovering from.
-5.2. FEMA's Position on Mitigation and Adaptation. On Meet the Press a "small bullet dodge" was made possible by the way a question was asked. Meet the Press forgot to do was set the question up in the context of climate change. Those two words were never uttered. There was the typical emergency manager response about the value and emphasis on mitigation as a way to reduce or prevent future disasters. There was no mention of adaptation. In other words the orientation remains heavily response to disaster rather the preventing or avoiding the disaster. The is not the perspective needed to deal with biocalamity and ignore much of the harm and damage done. This is not wrong if it is understood that an agency only helps with the immediate aftermath needs, but becomes a problem when it clams, or imagines, to also have responsibilities before and after disaster, can handle a catastrophic cascade, and is all hazard – excepting the slow, hidden, gubergenic, toxic contaminates, outside its jurisdiction (biocalamities don’t respect borders), destruction/distortion of information, when capabilities are eroded, and are not geospheric (infectious, pollutants, famine, drought, permanent sea level rise) . Want to Avoid Climate Related Disasters. Try Moving.
-5.3. Economics is a consistent indicator of a parademic, it is also a response to biocalamity in its own right. Chinese City Sells Discounted Pork as Meat Prices Soar. amid Swine Fever Outbreak, Brazil Beef Plants Set for Chinese Inspections which ties into the Amazon fires -2-, <ADDED 190901-190825-1.2B>1B -C -190818-2>2. Vietnam Culls 4.7 Million Pigs as African Swine Fever Spreads. China vice premier urges hog production recovery amid swine fever. <ADDED 190825-181118-VCP-China>11. -1A.
-6. Creating change in behavior for situations that risk health and environment is difficult. Here is an example of a creative attempt to motivate authorities to change their inertia. Viral Video: Moonwalking over the Potholes of India. [Photo Earthrise]
-7. Speaking of unintended consequences, if the US succeeds in preventing the Iran tanker from off loading its oil load the result could be to dump the oil where it can do the most environmental damage as a myphetic counterattack, or claim US attack caused the spill. U.S. Treasury Warns Anyone Fueling Iran Tanker Risks Being Blacklisted -2- -3-.
-8. In a Twist, Colorado Asks EPA to Lower State’s Air Rating, and not everyone thinks that was a good idea. The Governor said that Colorado would no longer ask for an exemption from standards by claiming some of the pollution was drifting into the state from elsewhere. Business groups say the state’s data shows Colorado would meet EPA standards if not for pollution from other states and even other continents. Lowering the air rating would hurt the economy by increasing the cost of doing business. Can the EPA Roll Back California's Clean Air Standards -2- -3- -4-. [Cartoon Half Clean -2- Habitat Loss, Meme Pollution is Good]. Do Environmental Regulations Reduce Employment. Not Really -2-.
-9. The Oversecuritization of Global Health: Changing the Terms of Debate. Linking health and security has become a mainstream approach to health policy issues over the past two decades. So much so that the discourse of global health security has become close to synonymous with global health, their meanings being considered almost interchangeable. While the debates surrounding the health/ security nexus vary in levels of analysis from the global to the national to the individual, this article argues that the consideration of health as a security issue, and the ensuing path dependencies, have shifted in three ways. First, the concept has been broadened to the extent that a multitude of health issues (and others) are constructed as threats to health security. Second, securitizing health has moved beyond a rhetorical device to include the direct involvement of the security sector. Third, the performance of health security has become a security threat in itself. These considerations, the article argues, alter the remit of the global health security narrative; the global health community needs to recognize this shift and adapt its use of security focused policies accordingly. Question remains. Does pairing security with health obscure health issues, divert resources from health and environment, or does it help motivate attention and resources to global health issues.
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