1. Magic, 2. Increased Frequency and Damage, 3. Reframing Useless Debate, 4. Solutions = Problems, 4.1. Economic Assumptions, 5. Pandemic Social Evolution, 6. Tree Hugger Barbie, 7. Words to Sticks and Stones, 7.1. Health Panic.
Other Topics: BioPolitics, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Anthropocene, Anthropogenic, Communication, One Health, (Climate) Environmental Change, Human Factors, Social Dimensions, Narratives, Infectious Disease, Polemic, Vaccination, Polemic, Mephetic, Unintended Consequences, Conditions of Uncertainty, Economic Impacts, Logical Fallacies, Fear
-1. One of the frequently encountered hallmarks of parademic is magic. This is not only found in third world countries, but highly technological societies – albeit in the first world the practice of magic is far more difficult to recognize and admit to. The relation of medicine and magic =2= =3= is well known, though usually regulated to a distant primitive time when civilization was less advanced, and ignorance & superstition reigned. [Cartoon =2= =3=]. One reason for the magical beliefs is that the explanations provided by testing hypothesis and by testing belief are coterminous in that they both are efficacious as explanations. The efficacy includes explaining why it did not work.
-A. Being imaginary =2= there are many possible ways of categorizing magic. From a wholistic frame 190929-1 one useful system for categorizing explanations of beliefs is Frazer’s heuristics of: The Law of Similarity =2=, where like produces like (Homeopathic Magic), and The Law of Contact (Contagious Magic), when things that have been in physical contact then act upon one another even at a distance; [Chart]. These ritual systems applies to both technoscience and magicoreligious belief systems. Because of the meaning of words related to magic are value laden terms, it is unlikely that an adherent to these paradigms will use to label and organize information, and to use magic as a heuristic to interpret behavior, to include dismissing that the two systems are believed to be antipodes and do not have historical and current connections. [Photo].
-B. Behaviors stemming from magical like explanations of behavioral phenomena are seen in both healthcare and environment beliefs and actions, especially in conditions of uncertainty where people need to have a sense of control and their paradigms about how the world works are shaken. Magical thinking$ influences behavior in various ways, some very unexpected. All logical fallacies =2= are magical thinking.
-C. To illustrate with a dramatic defiant behavior that is magically there is the logical fallacy of doubling down. Doubling down is when behaviors that have been successful in the past no longer work, to include ignoring contrary fact and claiming the intended consequence of an action is what happen. A string of failure is viewed as the tables are about to turn with a string of success. Rather than adapt and learn one instead increases the duration and intensity of the previously effective behavior in the hope that the escalation is all that is needed to achieve the desired goal again. The willingness to take such a risk is more likely if the gambler is risking others and that they feel protected from negative consequences (itself a form of magical thinking). Unfortunately doubling down can initially have apparent success but over time this takes more and more effort, just like a gambling or other addiction, accelerating until the behavior finally completely collapses, cascading through all of those who continue to support what has becomes a hyper exaggeration from persisting after backlash and being unsustainable.
-C. A consistent parademic behavior has been to accuse, if not gaslight, the other side of ignorance, superstition, being unobjective, ignoring evidence and using paralogos, frequently using the terminology associated with magical behaviors. This exacerbate the conflict and distracts from solution seeking with more magical behavior rather that effective behaviors such as cooperation.
-1.1. Did not include one of the most important points about medical access to 191013-1. Have added +D about access to reliable medical information. Note that PDWN uses the term valid to donate that in some contexts the information is valid, while in other contexts it is not. +1A added link to +assuming that population growth is not controlled.
-2. Evidence for Sharp Increase in the Economic Damages of Extreme Natural Disasters. Observations indicate that climate change has driven an increase in the intensity of natural disasters. This, in turn, may drive an increase in economic damages. Whether these trends are real is an open and highly policy relevant question. Based on decades of data, we provide robust evidence of mounting economic impacts, mostly driven by changes in the right tail of the damage distribution – that is, by major disasters. This points to a growing need for climate risk management. Lakes Worldwide Are Experiencing More Severe Algal Blooms. Richer Nations Urged to Boost Protection Against Wild Weather as Losses Jump. Goldman Sachs Released a 34-page Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change. And the Results Are Terrifying.
-A. There is a paradox of human behavior here. Increasing needs also means the situation is increasingly overwhelming, which paralyzes action. The inaction could eventually result in actions that are responses to an event not preventing the event. Climate: Uncertainty in Scientific Predictions Can Help and Harm Credibility. The more specific climate scientists are about the uncertainties of global warming, the more the American public trusts their predictions, as well as their labeling something as a risk. However, it is possible to effectively communicate a risk, without being threatening though that can backfire.
-2.1. It has been observed that the climate change social movements have two major trends. The first is historically dominate one that tends to be exploitive. It is characterized with a general unity of purpose and tends to control government (law) and industry (income) via clientelism. The second is not dominate*, more defused, future consequence oriented, the majority and non hierarchical [Photo]. These characteristics decrease its power over the social system, but ultimately its pervading influence is the social momentum (evolution) that determines the actions of the dominate. This could be defined as paradominate, along dominance, the larger context that predominates the whole social system.
-*. Interestingly antonyms of dominate imply subordinate and lower than the dominant. This does not appear to apply to the relation between the two social movements. This implies that Environmental change includes seminal social change that will change social interpretation of phenomena.
-3. Reframing Climate Change as a Story of Human Evolutionary Success$. Climate change is the unintended - but dire - result of our species' thriving. We’re five decades into warnings about the climate catastrophe rushing toward us, but the politics of climate change has never looked less promising. The overwhelming scientific evidence that global warming is occurring has reached everyone it can. Among those who accept that evidence, some are galvanized to protest and demand change and others retreat into fatalism. At the same time, climate change denialists cling to their views, even as, in the face of each new deadly heat wave, flood or firestorm, their position sinks ever deeper into absurdity, yet denial still retains a hold on a large hold. The Big Lie We’re Told about Climate Change Is That It’s Our Own Fault, how to deal with despair over climate change.
-A. Everyone knows everyone else’s arguments, and nothing is changing; we’re stuck. But what if we changed the framework of the debate in a way that lets us vault past the exhausted polarities. The narrative we’ve grown used to on this subject is one of blame*, casting humanity as a virus destroying an Earth that now needs saving (from us). But there is a very different story we can tell, one that recognizes climate change not as a marker of shame but as a story of an astonishing success that has led humanity to a moment of great peril, yet also of profound possibility. *There is however a risk when avoiding blame with the possibility of Diffusion of Responsibility.
-B. This new narrative emerges from interdisciplinary studies connecting humanity’s project of civilization with Earth’s own multibillion year project of life and evolution. The central point is that climate change is the dire but unintended result of our species’ thriving. Humans are not a greedy plague on Earth but simply the latest experiment in planetary scale evolution. Any species that flourished to the extent we humans have would have to seek out energy sources on a massive scale – and in doing so would change the global ecosystem. It took centuries for the downsides of carbon based fuels to become apparent. But now that we have figured that out, it’s incumbent on us to change course, and do so quickly. Both Conservatives and Liberals Can Agree on Action on Climate Change =2=.
-4. Scrutiny of Vaccine Exemptions Banishes Some from Schools. Several examples of creating other problems by the solution to solve a public health problem. These unintended consequences usually stem from not considering the human factors of what will happen in response to an action and failing to look at the problem as part of a system that are connected to other issues. [Strip].
-A. The same happens with environmental biosphere health, such as the technological default solution that again does not consider human dimensions and end up causing additional problems and adding to existing ones, to include oversimplification and bias when illustrating problems and giving solutions. Climate Change and Technology (Source Counterpunch). Climate change is one of a host of environmental ills for which technological solutions are being proposed. In fact, most of the proposed solutions exacerbate environmental ills in other dimensions such as species loss and mass extinction. This tendency of technological reasoning to ‘bleed’ from one dimension or axis to another – to cause unintended consequences – is a function of the structure of this type of reasoning.
-B. ∩ Contextual Engineering Improves Success of Projects in non Industrial Societies. Humanitarian engineering projects often focus on bringing western technologies to non industrialized societies. But environmental and cultural factors in these locations may be very different from conditions in the West, and the projects may not meet client needs if engineers do not fully understand the context in which they are operating. Same with medicos when applying medical care to a pandemic, or developing a public health system designed for a different environment.
-4.1. The failure to scrutinize one’s own assumptions and biases is often the basis of creating solutions that don’t address or acerbate the problem the solution is intended for. There are assumptions about medical access 191013-1, and poverty that may mot bear up under scrutiny. How the 3 Nobel Winners for Economics Upended the Fight Against Poverty. Don't Assume – Test (well developed hypothesis with applicable methodology). For decades, programs and policies to help the poor have largely been designed around what seemed like reasonable assumptions: Kids in poor areas can't afford new textbooks — so surely giving them free ones will improve their test scores. Impoverished women have a hard time finding jobs – so surely giving them a "microloan" of a few hundred dollars to start a small business will boost their incomes. [Cartoon].
-5. How Pandemics Shape Social Evolution =2$=. When will we learn never to declare the end of anything. Only 50 years ago, two prominent US universities closed their infectious disease departments, sure that the problem they studied had been solved. #Book Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present [Cover]. Historically there is far less recording and attention paid to health risks and events than the magnitude of the threat in terms of morbidity and mortality would suggest. This is changing but it is still a risk that is largely avoided.
-6. This is a combination of education, play, changing gender roles and art Tree Scientist Inspires Next Generation ... Through Barbie =2= =3=. [Photo =2= =3= =4= Gif]. The history of Barbie =2= =3= =3A= =4= is interesting as a reflection of social change over time.
-7. ∩ A speculation of PDWN is that violent rhetoric can eventually become physical violence in parademic. This has been observed with anti abortion where the direct physical attacks has contributed to decreased reproductive and women’s health care. This same escalation from rhetoric and moral panic =2= to physical violence has also occurred with antivax =2= =3= =4= which has lead to disease outbreaks. From Hateful Words to Real Violence =2= =3= =4=. There is a possibility that violent words may help vent emotions, there is also the increased possibility that if violent rhetoric is repeated over time that physical violence in more likely to manifest =2=. Primed violence =2= combined with a biocalamity is not a good combination.
-7.1. When It’s OK for Health Officials to Panic, and When It’s Not$. There can be a hidden downside to frightening the public. New and scary diseases have always made good headlines, but if they are very rare, is it ever justified to tell people to be afraid? Exaggerators in public health fields or in the media may not think they can do any harm by issuing alarming warnings about things like mosquito borne illnesses, vaping or eating meat. But there can be costs to such tunnel vision. | It’s OK to make a big deal about something that’s small when there’s a reasonable chance it might become a lot bigger, said risk communication consultant Peter Sandman. Think of the H5N1 bird flu scare of the last decade, he said. The disease was much more likely to kill those who got infected than was the 1918 pandemic flu, which killed about 50 million people. The new bird flu hadn’t evolved the ability to spread from person to person, but in the very real possibility it did, it could have been the worst pandemic ever. PDWN would question as a matter of course if this is by public health officials (perhaps as a way to motivate more funding), by those with agendas whose agenda would be furthered with fear mongering, or the result of misleading journalism.
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