-1. Start of Megafire Warmzone Observations, 2. Science Myth, 2.1. Spraying Fear, 3. Human Fecundity, 4. Climate Engineering Politics, 5. When the Local is Earth
Other Topics: BioPolitics, Biosphere, Disaster, Humor, Anthropocene, Anthropogenic, Communication, One Health, (Climate) Environmental Change, Human Factors, Social Dimensions, Narratives, Infectious Disease, Polemic, Vaccination, Polemic, Mephetic, Unintended Consequences, Scientific Method, Birth Rates, Birth Strikes, Microbiome, Biocides, Technology, Outrage, Nutrition, Unintended Consequences
-1. Will be taking advantage of a natural experiment of a megafire. This time I am actually in the warmzone of being in the power blackout and evacuation areas. This will allow me to make first direct observations that will be very local in scope but the first time I have had to compare parademic from an emic perspective as opposed to the usual etic global one. In the next few weeks will cover emergent behavior, decision making, information needs, evacuation/ stay in place, anger, rumor and more. Obviously being in a blackout area my Interconnection was intermittent as I have to travel to a community wifi center (they also served coffee).
-A. [Cartoon]. Power returned late on Wednesday and though I was well prepared for being isolated without power for a few days, and the blackout was just for a short time, there is lots to be done in the aftermath (in my case cleaning up the temporary kitchen we set up), to include organizing notes and creating an outline of what is important to address. First topic will probably be about being in the warm zone, in this case the areas of power blackouts, displaced population, stranded (people that were in the area on vacation or other travel and could not get out), stay in place, isolation from communication, lack of information, and evacuations. One immediate observation is though I and the local area are well prepared for being isolated and having to stay in place, there was more disruption just from the break in routines than I anticipated.
-‡. Strongest Wind Event of the Season: California’s Power Outages, Evacuations, and Wildfires. As Fires Rage, California Refines an Important Skill: Evacuating. Anger Rises as California Utility Imposes More Blackouts. Utility Says Power Lines May Have Started 2 California Fires. PG&E Expands Unprecedented Power Outages to Well over 2 Million People$. Power Outages in California Could Make Fighting Climate Change Harder$. Are the California Wildfires and Climate Change Linked. The California Fires and Unintended Consequenceslain . Fast Moving Maria Fire in Rural Southern California Threatens Avocado, Citrus Crops, and if megafire – probably in combination with drought, flood, plant disease, invasive species and other bioevents that disrupt farm labor and food transportation – happened in the Central Valley 25% of the US food supply would be threatened. If concurrent with social disruptions such as economic downturn, political schisms and gubergenic environmental policies =2= =3= that collectively could make the problems worse and contribute to a famine. Famine currently is viewed as an impossible event -2.1A↓, but then that is the definition of disaster, something that happens that could not happen. New Threats Put Wildfire Fighters’ Health on the Line, and probably those in warm zones that breathe the smoke (and smog =2= =3=) are also at risk. Seniors at California Complex Abandoned During Blackout. [Cartoon]. Southern California Utility Says Wildfire Started Near a Reenergized Power Line. Illegal Drones Ground Water Dropping Helicopters at Critical Moment in Maria Fire Battle$. Calif. Governor Seeks to Jumpstart PG&E Bankruptcy Talks; Threatens State Takeover. Silicon Valley Leaders Sit down with Wildfire at Investment Meeting after Being Impressed by its Rapid Expansion. More Californians Could Lose Home Insurance After Wildfires. Levels of Disruption Caused by PF&E Power Outages a ‘Career First’ for California Health Care Providers Listicle.
-2. Why Faith in Science Is Critical: Five Questions for Naomi Oreskes. If we cannot answer the question of why we should trust science, then we stand little chance of convincing our fellow citizens, much less our political leaders, that they should get their children vaccinated, floss their teeth, and act to prevent climate change.
-A. It’s a remarkably popular and persistent myth that there is a scientific method.
The thing that many people think is the scientific method is what philosophers call the hypothetico - deductive model. We develop a hypothesis, we deduce its consequences logically, and we do some kind of test to see if those consequences are true. Some kind of experiment, observation, clinical trial, et cetera. That model doesn’t hold up even if the prediction of the theory comes true, it doesn’t actually prove that that theory is correct. So if we think of the scientific method as necessarily demonstrating the truth about claims in a logical way, that model does not stand up to scrutiny. This is the problem encountered in Imaginary Dominionism 2018-1 where the exploitive - stewardship model appeared to consistently predictive and replicable, but it was misleading if conditions changed.
-B. Science doesn’t prevent bias. Science identifies bias and tries try to weed it out. Science isn’t biased because it’s a social process – science is biased because it’s human beings. All human beings bring their biases, their preferences, their predilections, their “priors’’ as statisticians call it, to any question. That cannot be eliminated. There’s simply no way for any human being to expunge all of their priors. But we don’t rely on science [based] on the views of an individual. We have this collective process. So the social aspect of science is actually a potential remedy for bias.
-C. There is methodological fetishism in that many scientists and anti science get fixated on the idea that there is only one particular method – the hypothetico deductive with replication of results <ADDED 191013-180603-1.2>1. – but there are other methods that are as powerful and useful. However, science includes being able to tolerate being uncertain, unsatisfied, skeptical, with conflicting and changing conclusions. This is further confused with claims that pretend to be science.
-2.1. When Residents Say No to Aerial Mosquito Spraying. 2019 has been an especially bad year for the mosquito borne virus, with at least 35 cases and 13 deaths reported nationwide. Faced with the prospect of several more weeks of mosquito friendly weather, Michigan state officials had offered 15 counties the option of spraying. All of them accepted. The technology is fully recognized as a public health intervention for mosquito-borne diseases,” Rutherford said, citing information from the Environmental Protection Agency and the CDC. But that didn’t stop thousands of residents from flooding the state’s pesticide opt out system, requesting that their properties be exempted from spraying. The government told me Roundup was safe forever, the government told soldiers that Agent Orange was safe forever – only to later be informed of previously unforeseen risks. More than 1,400 residents had exercised their right to opt out, creating a patchwork of no go zones that simply made aerial spraying unworkable. Spraying did occur in the other 14 counties, skirting the property of around 1,600 additional opt outs, and over the vigorous objections of many residents. A hard frost will soon kill this year’s remaining adult mosquitoes in Michigan, Massachusetts, Indiana, and other affected states. But as a warming climate promises to increase mosquito-borne disease outbreaks across the northern United States, including EEE, the controversy raises questions that may resonate for years to come.
-A. Mosquito Spraying versus Eastern Equine Encephalitis: Two Small Risks Compete for Public Outrage. I’m a risk communication expert, not a risk assessment expert, so I don’t have an expert opinion on the relative risk of EEE and mosquito spraying. But my very strong impression is that they are both small risks compared to many others that we all routinely face. I realize that there’s a current increase in EEE in the U.S., and a resulting increase in EEE newsworthiness. I suppose it’s possible that this increase is the tip of an iceberg, that EEE in the U.S. is on the verge of becoming much more widespread or much more severe or both. But absent real evidence that this is true, or even a consensus expert hunch that it might be true, EEE is way down on the list of U.S. disease threats. Similarly, it’s always possible that mosquito spraying is about to become a serious health hazard – because of a new insecticide, the cumulative effect of old insecticides, a synergistic effect with another substance, or some other about to be recognized problem. But that seems pretty unlikely too. Outrage Management, Low Hazard, High Outrage. Same issue as with antivax, the risk is perceived as low from both vaccines and disease -1‡↑, but when the remote chance is one’s own children over abundance of caution =2= kicks in, sometimes with extreme behaviors. This will change as the risk of not vaccinating is perceived as a very likely threat to their children, but that happens when children in local proximity over a short period of time are harmed.
-3. The Global Fertility Crash$. As birthrates fall, countries will be forced to adapt or fall behind. One of the questions about this is if it is a biological, social, or a combination. It is also unknown if this will contribute to biocalamity or ease the pressures toward biocalamity. Pressures that influence birthrate decline include: Poor nutrition, forced migrations, polemic, pregnancy and the microbiome, and birthstriking.
-4. The Hidden Politics of Climate Engineering =2=. The greatest danger of climate engineering may be how little is known about where countries stand on these potentially planet altering technologies. Who is moving forward, funding research, and being left out of the conversation. With the track record of health and environmental solutions having unintended consequences that create bigger problems. The technological solution default is a legitimate concern, especially when the biosphere, human factors and social dimensions are not considered, but is not always wrong if used properly as a tool. Techno Fix Futures Will Only Accelerate Climate Chaos – Don’t Believe the Hype. MIT Scientist: Capitalism Will Solve Climate Change. When it Comes to Readiness, the Fundamentals Still Matter. Health Care Providers Are Hiring the Wrong People. 191020-4A.
-5. Why Acting Locally Is Impossible in an Interconnected World. Like many Americans, I worry about the state of the planet and try to make a positive impact through decisions in my day to day life. But I also am nagged by the feeling that I often get it wrong, even though I analyze environmental problems for a living. As a professor of geography, I have critiqued environmentalism’s focus on local actions that rely on distant, large scale technologies such as meal delivery kits and hunting wild game. Of course all acts matter, but some matter more than others. Here’s where I’ve ended up: Engaging with the environment at multiple scales is what thoughtful people do, all the time, whether they want to or not. There is no place or scale to escape to. And the question of which level of encounter is the best for the environment – or the human soul – has no easy answer. Social activists often exhort followers to “Think globally, act locally”. But many geographers argue that the very idea of the local is rooted in fantasy. Again when dealing with the biosphere and anthroposphere systems there are connections (wholism, one health) that mean every action has a consequence, leveraged synergistically and with unintended consequences. This does not mean that acting locally is wrong, in fact it is the only option, but the local can coordinate with other locals, i.e. be local in action but think globally.
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