Parademic Database Week Notes Ending 200209 Experiment

Updated 211012

Introduction, Glossary

1. Natural Experiment, Coronavirus, Travel Restrictions, Fear Mongering, Down Playing, Border Closure, Economic Consequences, Social Distancing, Mass Gatherings, 2. Locust, Famines, 3. Invisible Connections, Funding Conservation

-1. Natural Experiments are the methodology of parademic. It is not possible to manipulate and limit variables in a lab, much less replicate behaviors that only appear in the conditions of an accelerated, virulent bioevent. Parademic observations have to be in situ, and usually through other observers. From this one identifies the variables*^A for that event, and then make forecasts of what will likely happen in the next bioevent with analogous circumstances. <CONT 200223-200112-2¶>1. 200308-1. 200505-1. 201225-CV30.

            -A*. PDWN does not have a exhaustive checklist of variables, preferring to let evidence and reports of the event suggest categories, but it does have a rough general list: 1) Causative agent and source, perceived source, reservoir and cause; 2) Mortality and Morbidity, perceived M&M; 3) Case Fatality Rate, perceived death rate; 4) Signs and symptoms (how gross, painful and sequala); 5) Novel or familiar (mundane); 6) Demographic affected and its social status, Relative power relation and mutual hostility of demographics, 7) Transmission, Perceived Transmission; 8) Moral panic and stigma 201003-CV18. 9) A priori dread, fear (mongering), panics, 10) Potential for being a proxy for social issue; 11) Bradyoccult, accelerated, fulminant; 12) Folklore and humor; 13) Reputation and preservation of status quo; 14) Arts; 15) Economic, shortages, life support, exploitation, crime; 16) Trust of prevention, treatment and explanations, calm, riots 210103-23B -C; 17) Competing narratives and social constructs; 18) Uncertainty and magical thinking; 19) Laws and rituals; 20) Capability and resilience of infrastructure of water, transportation, sanitation, medicine, communication =2=, maintenance and supply 21) Duration, normalization of deviance, secondary effects of famine, political suppression, draconian measures. This is adapted in part from Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present, Chapter 6 Smallpox before Edward Jenner, pages 83-85

            -B. The current Coronavirus acceleration <CONT 200202-200112-2¶> has so far not had any unexpected developments, but likewise still no clear cut cause and effect connection between the microsphere and the anthroposphere. It does however give the opportunity to observe if the implementation of mass quarantine, border control, not sealing borders, information suppression =2=, screening and travel bans will be effective or exacerbate the outbreak. It is known however that focused attention on a novel disease does distract from common diseases which may in fact be more deadly.

            -C. Unlike medical diagnosis, definitive conclusions about social responses will not be known for months. It is likely there will be conclusions drawn in the interest of getting quick answers, without full informed analysis and synthesis. There is a strong possibility of tailoring conclusions to support a priori narratives by those who are likely to be experiencing grief, parataxis and more interested in maintaining their positions than learning to improve. Analysis will is made more difficult with false information^$ (infodemic) 200429-CV03, and damaging the record. Whatever the conclusions, those will be resisted by advocates of the conflicting courses of action. For biocalamities courses of action need to be nuanced, changing with the agent, infection rate, death rate, population densities, incubation, transportation, public health and sanitation in an area, and left of outbreak mitigation and preparation =2= at the global health =2= level. Funding Is Needed Now for Hospitals to Prepare for the Coronavirus. Shutdown of PREDICT Infectious Disease Program Challenged by Senators Warren and King.

            -D‡. Where’s Xi. China’s Leader Commands Coronavirus Fight from Safe Heights, elites and leaders tend to buffer themselves from outbreaks. Fear and Takeout: 14 Days in Coronavirus Self Quarantine. We Are Human, We Are Hurting: Families Separated by Wuhan Quarantine as Coronavirus Death Toll Rises. Life under Virus Quarantine: Boxing, Chalk Art and Waiting. Lessons from Leprosy for Coronavirus: Quarantine and Isolation Can Backfire. An Integrative Review of the Limited Evidence on Travel Bans as an Emerging Infectious Disease Disaster Control Measure. All of its Neighbors Have It, So Why Hasn't North Korea Reported Any Coronavirus Cases, lucky, isn't saying or being a hermit nation, 200726-CV04. I Can’t Wait to Hold My Kids Again: Life Inside Wuhan’s Quarantine. China Escalates Coronavirus Lockdown in Wuhan with House Checks, Rounding up Sick, the usual reaction to this is to start hiding the sick. Satellite Images Show How Coronavirus Brought Wuhan to a Standstill. Singapore: 2019nCoV Coronavirus Risk Assessment Raised to DORSCON Orange 200909-CV01, China’s Draconian Response to the New Coronavirus, Explained by a China Expert. Unknowns of the New Virus Make Global Quarantines a Struggle. Coronavirus Fears Prompt 200 Foot Surgical Mask to Be Mounted over Docking Cruise Ship ☺, Japan Quarantines Cruise Ship as Toll of New Virus Grows, 200819-CV08, 201223-CV18. Aggressive Measures in Place to Contain Coronavirus Cases in U.S., Officials Promise Listicle. Where Are We Supposed to Put These People: States Grapple with Trump's Strict Travel Regulations, Quarantines Listicle. Eat, Sleep and Play on Your Phone: in Remotest Parts of China, Coronavirus Lockdown Shutters Shops and Cuts off Supplies. $9 Cabbages, Emergency Pork: Coronavirus Tests China on Food. Coronavirus; Texas Military Base to Quarantine Americans. Do We Really Need to Quarantine Canadians Who Return from China. It’s Time for a ‘No Regrets’ Approach to Coronavirus. This Chinese Doctor Tried to Save Lives, but Was Silenced. Now He Has Coronavirus =2= =3= =4= =5=, =6=, the people most able to deal with an outbreak and to give early warning are also the most likely to be affected by either the agent and/or suppression of action and information, [Strip]. Russia Warns Foreigners with Coronavirus Could Be Deported. To Fight Coronavirus Spread, the U.S. May Expand ‘Social Distancing’ Measures. But it Comes at a Cost. Effectiveness of Airport Screening at Detecting Travellers Infected with Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). US Enforces Coronavirus Travel Restrictions. China Says It's an Overreaction. As China Markets Plunge and Virus Continues to Spread, Beijing Praises Ottawa for Calm. China Accuses US of Spreading Fear, Says it Urgently Needs Masks. Early Evaluation of the Wuhan City Travel Restrictions in Response to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak. U.S. Coronavirus Quarantine and Travel Limits: Needed Protection or Overreaction. Hong Kong Medical Workers Strike in Bid to Shut China Border. China Says Coronavirus Can Spread Before Symptoms Show – Calling into Question US Containment Strategy. Health Experts Warn China Travel Ban Will Hinder Coronavirus Response. The Evidence on Travel Bans for Diseases like Coronavirus Is Clear: They Don’t Work, they’re political theater, not good public health policy. Past Epidemics Prove Fighting Coronavirus with Travel Bans Is a Mistake. Asian Destinations Reel From China’s Outbound Travel Bann . Risk Communication, 2019 Novel Coronavirus Listicle.

            -E. As one of the prime indicators of parademic are that economic impacts will be of interest =2= =3= =4= =5= =6= =7= =8=, [Cartoon]. If historical patterns hold there will be far more self inflicted harm than warranted by the threat, and possibly accusations that the Coronavirus was used to inflict economic damage and maintain control and contain society(rather than the disease). How quarantines, travel restrictions and fear, shutting off commerce, sealing borders, social distancing, shortages, closing of schools =2=, mass gathering locations & events =2= =3= =4= where disease can spread, In Depth: How Wuhan Lost the Fight to Contain the Coronavirus, are all economic aspects with consequences that can be far worse than the disease. Decisions tend to be delayed, requiring even more difficult decisions and economic costs, that are likely made after it would have been most effective. There is no one size fits all solution as each disease and the circumstances are different in subtle ways that may go unnoticed until control and containment fail. MORE: The Economic Cost of Major Tech Events Canceled Due to Coronavirus Has Passed $1 Billion. ^CV05.

-2. Millions will be affected, and billions in other parts of the world will not know of this. If they are unaware of it then they will a connection to what is happening or will happen where they are. Locust Swarms Threaten More Countries in Eastern Africa - FAO. Spray Planes Combat the Huge Locust Outbreak in East Africa. Climate Change Linked to African Locust Invasion. Africa Threatened with Severe Food Crisis as Locust Mega Swarms Devour Crops. These Pictures of Locust Swarms in East Africa Are Truly Apocalyptic. Climate Conditions Are Partly to Blame. UN Calls for International Help in East Africa. This Is Huge: Locust Swarms in Africa Are Worst in Decades, How Climate Change Feeds Africa Locust Invasion, Locust Invasion Reaches Central Kenya =2=. Locust Plague to Intensify Famine in Yemen Without Government Intervention =2=. Locust Swarm Forces Ethiopian Airlines Plane to Divert. It is also impossible to slap quarantines on, close border crossing and impose travel bans on Locusts, but there have been attempts to stop forced migrations of humans.

            -A. MORE: Supercomputer Helps in Tracking East Africa Locust Outbreak. Photo Shows Grasshoppers Invading China. Where it Begins: Young Hungry Locusts Bulk up in Somalia. UN Warns of Major Shock as Africa Locust Outbreak Spreads. Africa Locust Invasion Spreading, May Become Most Devastating Plague in Living Memory, UN Warns. Funding Gaps Could Lead to Locust Devastation in East Africa. A Humanitarian Crisis Looms in Africa Unless We Act Fast to Stop the Desert Locust. Locust Swarm: UN Warns of Food Crisis in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Somalia. Famine combined with polemic, unstable government and disease will be devastating. Huge Locust Outbreak in East Africa Reaches South Sudan. A Plague of Locusts Has Descended on East Africa. Climate Change May Be to Blame. The Cost of Fighting Desert Locusts in East Africa Has Doubled. Army of 100,000 Chinese Ducks on Standby to Combat Locust Swarms, China Will Not Send Ducks to Tackle Locusts in Pakistan.

            -B. MORE: Interacting Cycles Affect the Climate focuses on the non social aspects, parademic incorporates the social ones. [Figure =2=] Interacting spirals helices. [Image, Slides, Photo, Video =2= of spinning interacting spheres]. Most Devastating Insect Plagues in US History =2=  =3= =4=.

-3. Follow the money. The unexpected connections between what seems unconnected. Hunting Is Slowly Dying Off, and That Has Created a Crisis for the Nation’s Many Endangered Species. The unlikely mix of hunters and hikers, birdwatchers and mountain bikers is symbiotic. That symbiosis is off kilter: Americans’ interest in hunting is on the decline, cutting into funding for conservation, which stems largely from hunting licenses, permits and taxes on firearms, bows and other equipment. The resulting financial shortfall is hitting many state wildlife agencies. The link between hunting and conservation dates back more than a century to when gunmen all but blasted the bison population to oblivion and finished off North America’s most abundant bird, the passenger pigeon. Small wonder that hunters were asked to curb, and pay for, their excesses. Avid outdoorsmen such as Theodore Roosevelt put their stamp on an enduring ethos that combined sport with conservation and led to the 1937 11 percent tax on the sale of firearms that is apportioned annually to state agencies for conservation.