CV Pandemic Daily Notes 200425

Updated 211209

CV01. Protection: 6 Feet, Social Distancing, Spread, Contract Tracing, Chinese Resaurant Study, CV02. Humor: John Oliver, CV03. Information: Wuhan BioLab, CV04. Politics: UK, Boris Johnson, CV06. Language: Pathogen Evolution, Germ Theory, CV07. Emergence: Community Innovation, Committee, Ancient Grinding Mill, CV09. Arts, Creativity: Kafkaesque, CV10. Spirituality, Philosophy: Ethics, Abortion, Vaccine, Religion with Science, CV12. Personal, Relationships: Trapped Teenagers, Empathy, Stress, CV13. Outliers: Can there be, CV14. Uncategorized, Miscellaneous: Hazardous Touch, CV15. Grief: NewYork, Giving Up, CV16. Consequences, Social Change: Immunity Passports, CV17. Uncertainty, Contradictions: CV Briefing, Disinfectant Treatment, CV19. Technosphere, Anthromes: S Korea, Robots CV Alerts, CV20. Communication: Fake News, White House Correspondents, Facial Expressions, Projection, CV21. Syndemic, Concurrent Disasters: Famine, Hidden Starvation, CV22. Longue Duree: Ending Control Measures Too Soon, Othering Teminology, San Francisco 1918H1N1, CV23. Polemic, Myphysis: N Korea, Jung Un, CV24. Norms: Constitutionalist vs Law, Memes, Detroit Police, CV25. Transportation, Travel: New York Subways, CV28. Logistics: Ukraine Sliding Back, Finland Shortages, CV29. Responsibility, Decision Making: Shelter California, Quebec, MSF, CV30. Methodology: PDN PDWN Comparison, Recommendation, Comparison, Specious, Misleading, Unintended Consequences, CV31. Futuring: Planning Ahead, What If, Cone of Uncertainty, Analog and Digital, Increasingly Overwhelming

PDN Introduction, Glossary

CV01. Protection: Was Safety and Security. Is 6 Feet Apart Really Enough Physical Distancing During the Coronavirus Outbreak. What You Need to Know about How the Coronavirus Spreads – It’s Not Just about Staying 6 Feet Apart, is a great introduction to the complications of social distancing, spread and contract tracing. Chinese Study Shows How Air Con Spread Covid-19 in a Restaurant. Covid-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020, has explanatory graphics.

CV02. Humor: Coronavirus V: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Video.

CV03. Information: Inside China’s Pathogen Lab 2017. Maximum security biosafety facility nears approval, sparking excitement and concern. This is the lab 210103-CV03 -B, that is near the plausible wet market origin of CV spilling over into humans, that has been the epicenter of accidental release, intentional bioweapons and other speculations (disinformation). There is a paucity of reliable information and valid source that is free of taint of vested interest, propaganda, conspiracy theory promoting one interpretation or another. EU Report on Chinese, Russian Coronavirus Disinformation Watered down after Pressure from Beijing. 201022-CV23.

CV04. Politics: UK Johnson Faces Lockdown Dilemma as Scientists Warn over Grim Covid-19 Data. The right thing to do politically or economically ^CV05 rarely correlates with doing the right thing. Boris Johnson Skipped Five Virus Briefings in Early Days of Pandemic.

CV06. Language: Words evolve and change meaning, sometimes to the extent of acquiring the opposite meaning from the original usage. Pathogen originally meant a disease causing agent. The term was used by the hygiene/ terrain school of thought that opposed germ theory*^A. Overtime it was learned that contaminants and microbes both caused illness, so the terms germ and pathogen blurred. In PDN pathogen is used to mean disease causing, but the agent of the disease is not specific and can include social and other non physical causes. PDN is not curated by an epidemiologist and should not be considered expert in Germ Theory. PDN expertise is what people (including those who believe themselves experts) in the context of what they believe to be the cause of disease, to include their germ theory beliefs are the same as clinical germ theory. ^CV24↓. American Attitudes toward the Germ Theory of Disease ^CV22.

            -A. MORE: Even in a Deadly Pandemic Germ Theory Denial Persists. As hard as it is to believe, in the middle of a global pandemic that’s claimed so many lives and so thoroughly disrupted society, there are people who still deny germ theory. How can this be. Germ Theory vs Terrain Theory in Relation to the Coronavirus. Louis Pasteur Vs Antoine Béchamp and The Germ Theory of Disease Causation.  Modern medical largely unvoiced consensus is that both theories as originally stated are too extreme and simplistic. Both are broadly correct but miss key points of the other. The reality is that health depends on both the micro (somatic) and macro (environmental) health. Another reality is the continued belief that the two are in opposition. Germ Theory Denial in the Age of the Covid-19 Pandemic.

CV07. Emergence, Unofficial, Informal: Community Innovation Stories. This may develop into something useful. For now this appears to be producing products from an overly formal system that one would expect from a bureaucratic committee, but does not include the informal deeper knowledge of stakeholders who will directly experience consequences from the information done in isolation of the situation on the ground. [Meme].

            -A. This 1,000 Year Old Mill Has Resumed Production Due to Demand for Flour. An ancient flour mill is a fully operational wooden water mill. This wonderful piece of industrial archaeology, is where there has been a mill on since 1016. It produced flour on an industrial scale until 1970, and then was retired into a full time tourist attraction – although it still made a small amount of flour for visitors to buy in the gift shop or sample during their guided tours. Currently closed to guests and it's busier than it's been in almost 50 years. ^CV09. 201115-CV16, 200413-CV7.

CV09. Arts, Creativity: [Cover]. Kafkaesque Nightmare.

CV10. Spirituality, Philosophy: The Ethics of Vaccine Research Using Tissue from Aborted Fetuses. The race is on to find a vaccine that will help alleviate the effects of the novel Coronavirus, and while the nation watches with bated breath, there’s a sticky side debate bubbling over whether vaccine research in the U.S. should be permitted to use fetal tissue from aborted babies. This is a recycle of the long used antivax anti abortion mixture of fact and fiction, Aborted Fetus DNA in Vaccines =2= 201215-CV33.1 -A. ^CV22.

            -A. Beating Coronavirus Requires Faith Leaders to Bridge Gap Between Religion and Science =2= Video.

CV12. Personal, Relationships: Teens Are Wired to Resent Being Stuck with Parents and Cut off from Friends During Coronavirus Lockdown. How to Listen to Your Loved Ones with Empathy When You Yourself Are Feeling the Strain of Social Distancing

CV13. Outliers: Been awhile since there has been anything that could be considered an outlier. Is this a comment of normalization of what was once bizarre, or is it a question of what is an outlier in situations where nothing is certain.

CV14. Uncategorized, Miscellaneous: Biocalamities and parademic – biocrisis, since a parademic does not require a real biothreat – is when daily mundane activities of life and (shopping, seeing a movie with friends, visiting relatives, attending religious services) and are required for living (eating, drinking, breathing) can be fatal. Have not really considered when something as basic as touch can be dangerous. What’s Lost When We’re Too Afraid to Touch the World Around Us. MORE: Astronaut "Can't Even Hug People" after 7 Months in Space.

CV15. Grief: March, April, May: City’s Mood Darkens as Crisis Feels Endless. With no clues about when the pandemic might subside, short term discomfort is becoming long term despair: I feel like I have accepted this and given up. I Can't Do this Anymore: Cuomo Tackles Coronavirus Despair. The long 56 days New Yorkers have so far spent on lockdown are worth it because they saved 100,000 lives. [Meme, Ad].

CV16. Consequences, Social Change: WHO Warns Against Coronavirus Immunity Passports =2=. How Far Away Are Immunity Passports. Immunity Passports Could Help Society Get Back to Normal =2=. Immunity Passports Could Create a New Category of Privilege not to mention the possibility of bribery and fake certificates. It is still uncertain how long someone can infect others after being cured and if they acquired immunity from the pathogen.

            -A. MORE: No Evidence Yet That Recovered Covid-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says. 201202-CV25.1. 200522-CV11.1. POST COLLECTIO: Eventually it was confirmed that having had CV does not confer immunity, and that counterfeit vaccine cards did happen.

CV17. Uncertainty, Contradictions: Fauci's Absence from Recent Coronavirus Briefings Draws Notice, the national health expert was in attendance for just one of this week's seven briefings =2=. Trump Skips Questions at Coronavirus Briefing after Disinfectant Debacle, Friday's Coronavirus task force briefing, which have sometimes gone as long as two hours, lasted just over 20 minutes, =2= =3= =4=. Trump Says Briefings 'Not Worth the Effort' amid Fallout from Disinfectant Comments, he remained behind closed doors after advisers reportedly warned him that the briefings were hurting his campaign =2= =3=. ^{CV04 CV18 CV20 -A}↓.

CV19. Technosphere, Anthromes: Emergency Alerts for Covid-19 in South Korea. How South Korea Flattened the Coronavirus Curve with Technology. Robots Are Playing Many Roles in the Coronavirus Crisis – and Offering Lessons for Future Disasters ^CV31. MORE: Meet Spot: The Robot That Could Help Doctors Remotely Treat Covid-19 Patients.

CV20. Communication: [Meme]. ^CV17↑. Fake News. Trump's Dangerous Rant on Disinfectant Injections Is a Case Study in How Broken the Media Is. CNN’s Kaitlan Collins Nails Trump for Repeatedly Changing His Story on Disinfectant Advice, The White House Attempts to Humiliate CNN’s Kaitlan Collins =2=. 200411-CV2.

            -A. Interpretation of facial expressions during official press conferences is dubious, even without masks. Likely what a viewer is feeling is projected onto the face of another, especially if the face is carefully schooled to not show feelings, if the context is not fully known, and the way the image is framed. It is rarely certain to know what the individual viewed is actually feeling =2=, and in the current context of CV and White House press briefings, it is unwise to ask the individual directly what they were feeling. [Photo =A=] Trump Floats Dangerous Coronavirus Treatment Ideas as Dr Birx Looks on Video. ^CV17↑.

CV21. Syndemic, Concurrent Disasters: Covid-19 Will Almost Double Acute Hunger by End of 2020. Probably incorrect. UN monitoring is limited to areas already having food security issues such as locusts, drought, war. There are other areas that are nutritional deserts =2= where food can be obtained, but there is malnutrition. Its likely there are other areas that are near or in starvation that are not known because of isolated populations, no media attention, impoverished without advocates (or officials deny there is poverty), and there is a lack of funding to locate other areas. Malnourished people also have less immunity from disease and are more likely to be exposed to pathogens so many may die without being associated with famine statistics. 200918-CV21. 200508-CV01.

CV22. Longue Duree: This Isn’t the First Global Pandemic, and it Won’t Be the Last. Here’s What We’ve Learned from 4 Others Throughout History. One of the consistent lessons is if protective measures are removed too soon, or people become complacent about vaccines and sanitation, then the pathogen will resurge, ^CV01. This flare up 200804-CV31 can be immediate, but may happen months later but not recognized as being a continuation due to the time and possible geographic gap. What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast. Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections ^CV31. Republicans* Eager to Reopen Economy; Democrats More Cautious.

            -*A. In terms of parademic political affiliation is a convenient shorthand, but essentially meaningless, along with Liberal, Dem, Nazi, Socialist, American, Migrant, and other Othering terminology. The current word Republican ^CV06 is a worldview has been hijacked by an ideology. This hijacker is compatible for the short term of common interest =2=, but is fatally incompatible with the concept Republican ^CV24.

            -B. San Francisco Had the 1918 Flu under Control. And Then it Lifted the Restrictions.

CV23. Polemic, Myphysis: N Korea. What If Kim Jong Un Dies. What Happens If Kim Jong Un Dies. 200422-CV23B.

CV24. Norms: Constitutionalist Sheriffs Won’t Enforce Coronavirus Restrictions ^CV04. Appeal to (Past) Authorities. One of the advantages of citing the dead, especially those who lived in circumstances not analogous to the present, is that they can’t correct misinterpretations and inventions, much less the cherry picking to support interpretations not intended. [Meme =2= =3= =4= | =5= =6= =7= =8= =9= =10=] ^CV06↑ ^CV22A↑. Constitutional Revisionism, So What Are Constitutionalists and Why Would a Deputy Worry about Them. Viral TikTok Exposes Double Standard in How Protesters Are Treated Video. *The Menace of Memes. 201230-CV33.

            -A. Coronavirus Devastates Detroit Police, From the Chief on Down.

CV25. Transportation, Travel: I Don't Want this Job to Kill Me: Why Have 68 New York Transit Workers Died During the Pandemic. The Subways Seeded the Massive Covid-19 Epidemic in New York City. Questions Mount over Christian Group Behind Central Park Covid-19 Hospital.

CV28. Logistics: Covid-19 Turns the Clock Back on the War in Ukraine, as Needs Grow ^CV23. In the second half of March saw more than a 200 percent increase in pleas for assistance on its hotline. This was after Ukraine introduced strict quarantine measures, closed its borders, shuttering schools ^CV27 and all non essential business ^CV05, and halting public transport ^CV25. Possibly because the Ukraine has a recent experience with Measles 201219-CV21 is was more willing to take stringent measures quickly, keeping its numbers comparatively lower than Turkey, Russia, US and Europe. Not as well as Vietnam but far less than PDN expected with its collapsed economy, weakened public health and medicine, being an armed conflict area and having disinformation campaigns directed against it.

            -A. Raincoats and Paper Towels: Finnish Nurses and Doctors Flag Lack of Covid-19 Protective Gear.

CV29. Responsibility, Decision Making: Did California's Shelter in Place Order Work. Early Coronavirus Related Public Health Benefits.

            -A. Quote: Relax, said the night man. We are programmed to receive. You can check out any time you like. But you can never leave.

            -B. Quebec Snubs Doctor Who Helped Lead Fight Against Ebola. The former president of Doctors Without Borders, who has 25 years of experience in pandemics, says the Quebec government changed its position and refused her offer to help. In daily briefings to the media, the Health Minister repeatedly said there was a shortfall of thousands of staff in the homes — which had been beset by shortages before the pandemic and are now missing even more people after hundreds had to go into isolation.

            -A. I’ve not worked directly with MSF but it is highly respected and hated. Like the ICRC MSF has a policy of neutrality and impartiality in terms of providing health care to any patient. However, in terms of relations with nations MSF interprets that policy differently than the ICRC by aggressively and publicly calling out governments for health care failing, genocide, atrocities and corruption. Reestablishing damaged relationships with nations by other organizations after MSF was banished has sometimes taken years.

CV30. Methodology: Sufficient time has elapsed to compare the weekly Parademic Database Weekly Notes (PDWN) and the Daily PDN. PDN is easier to read, but sacrifices relevant information, contrary information, ranges of beliefs on a topic, invented information, misinterpretations, alternative hypothesis, and is more difficult to link to related information that provides more accuracy. More worrisome is that because PDN does not appear as disorganized, is better written (but still not as well written as I would prefer), has greater focus, and does not have as many unanswered questions, PDN appears to be better. PDN is misleading about its information gaps, accuracy of interpretations, evolution of trends, and how biological and social influences interact. PDN is adequate for providing the social context of CV within the US.

            -A. For making policy and action decisions ^CV29 I do not recommend PDN if it is the sole source. As a background and context source I am confident to suggest it for the purpose of making more informed decisions that are evidence and indicator based, but by itself PDN (and certainly no single numbered stub) does not suffice for the consideration of human factors that will have unintended consequences or will neutralize or pervert actions. Possibly reading PDN for an extended period may be sufficient to be able to consider human dimensions of a pandemic, but would be ill advised to make decisions not informed by expert clinical science perspectives. Someone expert in non social science perspectives of pandemics would appreciate the social considerations, but likely would recognize their own biases and gaps at applying social science information without inquiry when making a decision of how to apply a clinical solution to a particular social setting.

            -B. Furthermore, the curator of PDN does not recommend it as a source for citation. Ignoring Trump and associated officials are a major aspect of CV, but it is at the same time political and PDN commentary is not couched in apolitical, neutral and objective terms. PDN does make an effort to avoid the more extreme and irrational sources of opinions concerning Trump, but even the least offensive illustrations are offensive. Research that depends on maintaining the ideal of remaining above the mud of politics and depend on grants of money from sources that are influenced by political considerations, would likely not be competitive with research that do not cite PDN and express opinions that are emotional. This is a dilemma for PDN, but fortunately PDN does not accept money from any source, does not have a reputation to maintain (or tarnish), so it can afford to present illustrations of what is believed by people (not necessarily fact), that then influence behavior in the biological and social contexts of CV.

            -C. POST COLLECTIO: Sometime after this PDN began to include more of the misinformation, disinformation, data manipulation, poor decisions, and they became a major topic in open media (to include gaslighting by disinformation sources). CV was prolonged because the parademic of the pandemic was characterized by uncertainty of all information.

CV31. Futuring =2= =3= =4=: One of the supposed human abilities – one that is not always practiced, and if practiced vulnerable to wishful/ magical thinking, and logical fallacies 201206-1A, – is the ability to project what will happen in the future. This requires knowing the past ^CV22 and correctly interpreting a pattern that will be repeated in the future (sunrise and set, seasons, precipitation, availability of food and where to find it). When dealing with the complexities of what if*^A =2= =3= that go beyond being able to survive the next day, the cone of uncertainty increases and more likely to be influenced by factors that are not recognized before they become apparent when a system fails. 200424-CV14.

            -*A. The analogy ∩*^B of computers and algorithms to open living systems to the digital ⊓ biological and social spheres is misleading. The complexity and complication of between closed and open system is one of several powers (N^N). Think of having children. Just having one (1¹) is very disruptive. Having a 2^nd one however is not 2x more (2¹), its 4x more (2²), and that is not considering the complications. This is partly why PDN of CV started relatively simply, but as it progresses with accelerations, consequences, cascades, antagonisms.... what started as overwhelming and paralyzing, becomes shattering of complexity and complications ^All.

            -*B. POST COLLECTIO: When parademic began there were few current examples of biocalamities that had accelerated, and historical examples were in contexts too different from current circumstances to be directly useful if not potentially misleading. Parademic at that time tended to use analogues to emphasize limited application and scope to parademic behaviors. As More and more biocalamities accelerated this was less necessary, and not again used. However, analogue thinking (not anecdotal) is a useful tool in social sciences, especially for recognizing that these are heuristics, not the reality. 200426-CV15A. Incidentally media (especially social media) tend to be anecdotal, a report of a single incident because it will generate interest and support a narrative.