CV Pandemic Daily Notes 200418

Updated 211125

CV1. Safety, Security: Early Warning Ignored, CV2. Humor: Sheltering in Place, CV3. Information: Gaslighting, Expertise Limitation, Need for Social Science, Statistical Models Unreliable, CV4. Politics: China African Wooing, Swedish Experiment Failure, CV5. Economics: Food Shortages, Future Possibility, Liens on Checks, CV6. Language: Motivating Protests with Words, Persuasion to End Protection Too Soon, Abbreviating Sheltering, CV7. Emergence: Quaranteaming, CV8. Entertainment: Oprah Medical Misinformation, CV9. Arts: Movies, CV10. Spirituality: Masquerading as Religion, Ken Ham, Self Correcting Problems, CV11. Exploitation: CV Scams, Faith Reopening, Self Correcting, CV12. Personal: Moot Travel Bans, CV13. Outliers: Dalek, CV15. Grief: Alone, CV16. Consequences, Social Change: Solitary Confinement, CV17. Uncertainty, Contradictions: Creation of, CV18. Narrative: Caught in a Power Struggle, CV19. Technosphere: Antibody Test, CV20. Communication: Scapegoat Tall Tale, WHO, CV21. Syndemic, Concurrent Disasters: Beliefs about Disasters, Ebola, CV22. Longue Duree: CV and Antivax, CV23. Polemic, Myphysis: Political Thugs, Inciting Riot, Moral Panics, France, Aircraft Carrier, Veterans Administration, CV24. Norms: Japan Cascade, CV25. Transportation: Ambulances, CV27. Learning: On Line, CV29. Responsibility, Decision Making: Leadership Meaning(less), Poor Decisions, Brazil, Bolsonaro, Women Heads of State.

PDN Introduction.

CV1. Safety, Security: The President and the Plague, failing at the single most important task of the Oval Office: Keeping the American people safe from harm. This is predictable by previous patterns established with: foreign relations, economic, national security, health and environmental safety, military, expertise, intelligence, and hurricane poor decisions; all made the US parademic of CV very forecastable. Not the details of predictions (what, where, when, how), but the general outline of who and why CV would be mishandled.

            -A‡. Before Trump’s Inauguration, a Warning: The Worst Influenza Pandemic since 1918. Trump vs. Disease X, the administration is setting up the US to botch a pandemic response 2018. In 2017, Obama Officials Briefed Trump's Team on Dealing with a Pandemic like the Coronavirus. One Cabinet Member Reportedly Fell Asleep, and Others Didn't Want to Be There. How a Pandemic Might Play Out Under Trump 2016. Partly False Claim: Trump Fired Entire Pandemic Response Team in 2018.

CV2. Humor: ‘Salutations and Good Tidings!’ Blurts out Man Speaking to Other Human for First Time in Days. Tips for Cutting Your Own Hair. [Cartoon].

CV3. Information: Donald Trump’s War on Coronavirus Is Just His Latest War on Truth, he is reacting to this disaster the way authoritarians always do – by covering up the facts and dodging the blame. Trump Is Trying to Blame the W.H.O. for Slow Pandemic Response but It Sounds Just Like He's Slamming Himself, "Those tasked with protecting us by being truthful and transparent failed to do so. It would have been so easy to be truthful. And so much death has been caused by their mistakes". Video.

            -A. The “Experts” Don’t Know Everything. They Can’t. We need to adjust our expectations of what scientists know – and even what they can know. This is the allure of those who claim to know everything. For those who are unable to tolerate uncertainty, anyone who is confident and certain that they know everything and have all the answers, can be compelling. This phenomena is seen in confidence games as well as political, medical and religious scams, ^{CV10 CV11}↓.

            -B. Why It’s So Hard to See into the Future of Covid-19. The most difficult thing for an epidemiological model to predict: human behavior. Wish there was something like parademic and PDN available that could help with forecasting behaviors.

            -C. Models are not reality. Useful as a rough guide but not sufficient to base decisions on, especially when the model is statistical and not informed by what happens in the real world. It is suspicious when a bell curve is used as pandemics are multimodal distributions video, indicating a possibility of using statistics to lie. A Hill Type Mathematical Model Predicts the US Death Number and the Reopening Date. With some people now making freedom of movement the hill they're ready to die on, a Hill type mathematical model that does not include partisan idiocy amounts to less than a hill of beans. ADDED: Why One Expert Is Still Making Covid-19 Models, Despite the Uncertainty & A Comic Strip Tour of the Wild World of Pandemic Modeling.

CV4. Politics: Coronavirus Ends China's Honeymoon in Africa. Beijing has spent billions to win friends and influence politics in Africa. But the virus is threatening to upend years of careful work. For the time being the US government will not step into the void created, so who will. Business and raw material industries are likely. Maybe Africa can find the leadership that can take them as a whole to find enough common self interests and take control of their own destiny. 201224-CV05.

            -A. The Grim Truth About the Swedish Model. Sweden Has Shown How Not to Tackle Coronavirus, as it Fights Now to Save Face. Can You Beat Covid-19 Without a Lockdown. Sweden Is Trying. Swedish Ministers Defend Resisting Coronavirus Lockdown. 200405-11A. 200502-CV04. 200508-CV06D1).

CV5. Economics: The US Won’t Run out of Food During the Coronavirus Pandemic. Not completely correct. Food will still be available, but there will be shortages and maybe involuntary dieting – which may not be a bad thing (this source is likely to have different information that it has posted now). There is already preexisiting malnutrition and starvation. Farming may not be as productive this coming summer, which will influence next year (presumably CV will be dormant by then). There is a hiatus on fishing. Hoarding may lead to shortages, which leads to more hoarding. People may simply not be able to afford food. Americans Are Using the #TwitterFoodBank Hashtag to Help Each Other Buy Groceries amid the Recession, What It's Like Working at a Grocery Store During Covid-19. Fears over Food Supply Grows after Nation’s Naughty Little Boys Sneak into Reserve Stockpiles and Eat All the Sweets =2= =3= ^CV02. 200414-CV1. ^{CV25 CV28}. 200918-CV21. MORE: Nov 2021 Why the Supply Chain Crisis Could Screw Up Your Holiday Shopping.

            -A. Private Debt Collectors Can Seize Stimulus Checks. Some States Are Trying to Stop Them. Congress Sets Aside $1,200 in Trust for Each American until They Prove They’re Responsible Enough to Handle It ^CV02, unknown if the author is aware of the historical example of Native Americans and Trusts. Americans Begin Receiving Stimulus Checks =2= ^CV02. 200415-CV5.

CV6. Language: Pro Trump Protesters Push Back on Stay at Home Orders is a classic illustration of conflict resulting from different meaning applied to what appear to be the same words and terms. Stay at Home and Shelter in Place =2= for one part of the population means disease control and containment, a way for increase safety and security in the future. For the other part of the population that tend to not take a longer view of things and want continuity of predictability, these terms mean losing income, oppression of overbearing authorities, threats to their identity. 200417-CV4. Across America, Frustrated Protesters Rally to Reopen the Economy. The US Economy Can’t Reopen Without Widespread Coronavirus Testing. Getting There Will Take a Lot of Work and Money =2=. [Cartoon =2=]

            -A. MORE: Covid-19 Study Examines How People Respond to Stay at Home Orders ^CV30. When Italians self isolating during the Covid-19 outbreak were presented with a hypothetical situation in which orders to remain at home would be for shorter periods than they had expected, they were pleasantly surprised and said they would be more willing to stay in isolation. But people negatively surprised to hear that the hypothetical extensions of the orders would be for longer than they had anticipated said they would be less willing to maintain or increase their isolation. Possibly the statements by authorities for short time periods set up an expectation that is disappointed and increases resistence when continued. Stating for a long period could create that expectation for a long haul, so people will be happy if it is shorter, but will create other problems such as hoarding.

            -B. Stay and Home and Shelter in Place in PDN will be abbreviated as SAH SIP. Self Isolation and Home Quarantine appear to still have distinct respective meanings of SIP if one was exposed to CV, and SAH if one has CV. POST COLLECTIO: The situation changed quickly, Public Health measures being all lumped under “lockdown”, and the need for abbreviation of frequently used terms (Zipf’s Law ^CV06) disappeared.

CV7. Emergence: People Are Ditching Their Homes and Joining Their Friends to Avoid Isolation. It's Called Quaranteaming ^CV6. Emergent behaviors in disasters are thought to be a surprise, something that is unexpected. After years of dealing with parademic the curator has yet to find an example of: An event that was not previously pointed out as a potential problem (and was ignored); Did not have precursors and antecedents; That did not have a historical record of the same behavior by the analogous (if not the exact same) social group in analogous (or the same) circumstances. This is not necessarily a failure of imagination, willful ignorance, or intent to cause harm. The consistent attributable reason is being blinded by one’s assumptions, experiences, what is considered rational, group think, and intellectual/ organizational silos. If proper protective measures are not effectively followed, quarantining is likely to result in CV cases that are hidden for a while.

CV8. Entertainment: Was fiction.

            -A. Dr. Oz and Dr. Phil’s Covid-19 Denial: Oprah Has a Lot to Answer for. It’s not uncommon to confuse fiction and reality, in fact it is a constant condition. Poe’s Law =2= again. [Poster]. Dr Oz, and How Oprah’s Weakness for Crackpot Theories Tarnishes Her Legacy =2= =3=. Why Is Alleged Quack Dr. Oz the Face of NBC’s Coronavirus Crisis Team. ‘You’ve Served Me Well, but this Has Gone Too Far,’ Says Oprah Loading Shotgun after Watching Dr. Oz, Dr. Phil Fox News Appearances ^CV02. 

            -B. MORE: Dec 2021 America’s Quack Dr. Oz Is Running for Senate to Become the New Rand Paul, 201114-CV18. Dr. Oz Announces Bid for Pennsylvania Senate Seat ^CV02. Dr. Oz Endorses Benefits of U.S. Senate Despite Proven Deadly Side Effects ^CV02. Dr. Oz Says Fauci Should Be ‘Held Accountable’ for Misleading Congress, 201116-CV25B. Fauci Says Jesse Watters Should 'Be Fired on the Spot' after Fox News Host's 'Kill Shot' Comments. May 2022 Did Columbia University Cut Ties with Dr. Oz, they might have quietly downgraded his status. What took so long. Columbia University Finally Cuts Ties with America’s Quack Dr. Oz. Aug 2022 Pennsylvanians Explain Why They Are Voting for Dr. Oz ^CV02. Emails Show Mehmet Oz Pushed Jared Kushner and the White House to Use an Antimalaria Drug as a Covid Treatment, Which the WHO Later Strongly Recommended Against, Fetterman Campaign Says its 'Actually Not Surprising' That Rival Oz Urged the Trump Administration to Push Research into an Unproven Covid Treatment, Sep 2022 Dr. Oz Owns Shares of Companies That Supply Hydroxychloroquine, a Drug He Has Backed as a Covid Treatment. Nov 2022 America’s Quack Dr. Oz and the failure of medical academia, revisited. It's Election Day. Worse, it's quite possible that America's Quack Dr. Mehmet Oz could be Senator Elect Oz by tomorrow. He was helped by a profound failure of medical academia in general and Columbia University in particular. Democrat John Fetterman Beats Trump Backed Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania Senate Race.

CV9. Arts: The 8 Best Movies You Can Now Watch at Home. ^CV8.

CV10. Spirituality: Ken Ham: Why Would God Allow Coronavirus Pandemic, Video =3=. ^CV3A↑, =2= =3= =4= =5=. [Meme].

            -A. Trump Consults Faith Leaders on Phased in Reopening. It is appearing that there is a form of Religion in the context of CV may not be related to spirituality but more ^{CV4 & CV11}. Possibly spiritual opportunism, pseudoreligion, cultism, =4= =5= =6= =7= but more likely that even if labeled religion, faith, spirituality, surreal, the behavior will be categorized outside of ^CV10. Unable to find a definition of religion that is not circular, i.e. Religion is Religion. Hard to distinguish those who are manipulated by their faith and spirituality from those who justify religion as a pretense for criminal and inhumane behavior ^CV29, as well as portraying magical thinking as religious thought.

            -B. Unknown if this type of fraud and mimicry will be self destructive and correcting, eliminating the problem – or more likely drive it to dormancy until it reemerges. Very likely religion will be changed not by CV but how people of faith behave during CV. The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Exposed Fissures Within Religions. 201205-CV11.

-C. MORE: Religious Nationalism and the Coronavirus Pandemic: Soul Sucking Evangelicals and Branch Covidians *^D Make America Sick Again. Religious Affiliation and Covid-19 Related Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study of Prelockdown and Postlockdown Risks in England and Wales. Religious Identity Cues Increase Vaccination Intentions and Trust in Medical Experts among American Christians.

            -*D. This is a play on Branch Davidians and the associated Waco Texas conspiracy theory ^{CV06 CV22}.

CV11. Exploitation: Coronavirus Scammers Are Flooding Social Media with Fake Cures and Tests. Some People Turn to Herbal Medicine for Virus Without Proof. ^CV4A↑.

CV12. Personal: In the early days of CV the curator was speculating if it would be an opportunity to see if travel bans would prove to effective or not. For a R0+ disease with an incubation period that was longer than modern transportation means that was a moot question. By the time there was political will (already wavering) and credible public health evidence, that ship had not only sailed but had made ports of call throughout the world. 200421-CV6.

            -A. MORE: Evidence of the Effectiveness of Travel Related Measures During the Early Phase of the Covid-19 Pandemic: a Rapid Systematic Review. Impact of Travel Ban Implementation on Covid-19 Spread in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea During the Early Phase of the Pandemic: a Comparative Study. Without an early warning system to identify an outbreak with pandemic potential, and global willingness to implement travel bans and quarantines, travel restrictions are moot.

CV13. Outliers: Things are either getting very weird during self isolation, or the whole planet has been taken over by aliens when everyone was sheltering in place. 200519-CV08. MORE: Self Isolate: Dalek Surprises Residents of UK Fishing Village ^CV02.

CV15. Grief: How Should We Mourn When Coronavirus Keeps Us Apart. Gathering together to mark the passing of loved ones is critical to our emotional well being. Could remote mourning be enough.

CV16. Consequences, Social Change: Are We Coping with Social Distancing. Psychologists Are Watching Warily. The sudden confinement of millions to their homes could have serious mental health effects, and scientists are already studying this unprecedented experiment. ^CV23.

CV17. Uncertainty, Contradictions: Virus in New England: Anti Lockdown Protest in New Hampshire. [Cartoon].

CV18. Narrative: Caught in a Superpower Struggle: The Inside Story of the WHO's Response to Coronavirus, In the competing narratives of the US and China, the world health body has been unable to enforce compliance or information sharing. This is not uncommon in the medical field. The problem of balancing the politics of getting medical access to those who need, and getting funding to provide the access. Both the US and China interfered with both aspects, synergizing it with their own conflicts.

CV19. Technosphere: WHO Warning: No Evidence That Antibody Tests Can Show Coronavirus Immunity =2=, which screws up planning for reopening. MORE: The FDA’s Experience with Covid-19 Antibody Tests.

CV20. Communication: My Wild, Totally Surreal Experience Covering a Trump Coronavirus Briefing. Watching him and the task force in person was enormously revealing. [Cartoon]. 200829-CV29.

CV21. Syndemic, Concurrent Disasters: What Happens When Natural Disasters Strike During a Pandemic. I thought a pandemic was a natural disaster. Possibly the author did not know there is a difference between Acts of God, anthropogenic (manmade disaster), biosphere calamities and geosphere (air, water, land) disasters.

            -A. Ebola in the DRC: 6 Cases Now. What is of parademic interest is not the article, but the comments at the end about “flight” and “fatigue”. Congo Records Five New Ebola Cases, Shelves Declaration of End to Epidemic. 200812-CV21.2A

CV22. Longue Duree: How the Anti Vaccine Community Is Responding to Covid-19. So far, the responses from major players wear down a familiar path of conspiratorial thinking and government mistrust. In fact they have not changed very much in its 200 plus year history.

            -A. POST COLLECTIO: Despite the clear indicators that antivax would neutralize vaccination effort, thereby prolonging the CV pandemic, there was next to no effective messaging to counter antivax messages before CV vaccines became available.

CV23. Polemic, Myphysis: People Are Protesting the Shelter in Place Order Outside the Orange County Administration Building. Mobs and political thugs =2= are easy to incite with slogans to support panic behaviors that support a narrative, even if the behavior is detrimental. However, once in motion the mob is difficult to control as it accelerates into riot 210103-23B -C and violence. Frequent devices used to incite mobs are disinformation DI =2=, moral panic =2= =3= =4= =5= and affinity fraud. Trump’s Hype for State Lockdown Protests Puts Twitter and Facebook’s New Covid-19 Policies to the Test, No, Twitter Will Not Ban Trump. [Meme]. 200419-CV24. MORE: Harmful Tweets from High Places: Why Is Twitter Acting Now.

            -A. Billions of Viruses Gathered Outside Michigan State Capitol Call for End to Social Distancing Measures ^CV02.

            -B. France Finds More than 1,000 Virus Cases on Aircraft Carrier. Was what happened to cruise ships not enough warning to boost biodefense of military vessels. 200424-CV14. 200819-CV08.

            -C. More than 1,600 Employees at VA Medical Facilities Have Coronavirus. Given recent disruptions at the VA =2=  this is probably an undercount.

CV24. Norms: Japan’s Virus Success Has Puzzled the World. Is Its Luck Running Out. Cascades into informal norms, Japan Is Relying on Public Obedience to Clear Streets as Coronavirus Cases Rise. Cascades into formal norms, Japan’s State of Emergency Is No Lockdown. What’s in It. Cascades into New Wave of Coronavirus Infections Threatens to Collapse Japan Hospitals. And this will cascade into several social norms and systems. 200501-CV24. 201223-CV18.

            -A. MORE: Why Japan Refuses to Work from Home – Even in a Deadly Pandemic. Why Japan Won't Say the Coronavirus Is Transmissible over Long Distances. The Downside of Decision Making Practices in Japan, though Japanese culture has been changing dramatically since the 1950s, it remains a consensus society. See stubs on the Tokyo Olympics. Covid Revealed Differences in American and Japanese Ideas of Freedom.

CV25. Transportation: Taking health care to the suspected CV patient, and if needed taking the patient to more intense medical care. You Hear the Cries: Virus Toll Haunts a New York Paramedic.

CV27. Learning: Virus Forced Schools Online, but Many Students Didn’t Follow. [Cartoon].

CV29. Responsibility, Decision Making: New category based on musings about leadership. Unfortunately, the term leadership has become meaningless so not useful as a label. Most of the illustrations of leadership are of those in the positions who are not demonstrating leadership.

            -A. South Dakota Gov. Noem, Who Opposed Stay Home Order, Now Faces Coronavirus Hot Spot. Under fire for not taking bolder action, insists things are under control.

            -B‡. Governors Who Reject Stay at Home Orders Place ‘Small Government’ above Lives. Small Government, The Era of Small Government Is Over, for Now, Smaller Government. Some Trump Supporters Cheer the Shutdown

            -C. Governing Covid in Brazil: Dissecting the Ableist and Reluctant Authoritarian. Bolsonaro Leading Brazil to Slaughterhouse over Covid-19. Brazil: Ceará State's Healthcare System Is First to Collapse. Again forecastable outcomes from behavior of previously established patterns, 200416-CV4B.

            -D. What Do Countries with the Best Coronavirus Responses Have in Common. Women Leaders. Easy to miss this possible correlation as Headlines tend to give the country, not the leader, with the exception of Germany. If leaders are named in the headline they are usually male and firmly associated with their nation. ^A↑ is a woman sex and gender. In Collaborative Work Cultures, Women Carry More of the Weight, Female Leadership Trust Advantage Gives Women Edge in Some Crisis Situations =3= =4= =5=. 200419-CV14.