Updated: 220422
CV Pandemic Daily Notes, 200504 200505, 200506, 200507, 200508, 200509, 200510
1. Open Source Information, Process, Weaknesses, Rumor Model, Remote Ethnography, Black Box Theory, Black Boxing, GIGO, Loss of Data Source, Education, Camazotz, 2. Invasive Species, Bee BioThreat, Asian Giant Hornet, 3. Boosting Immune System, 4. One Health for Health Security
-1. Open Source material available via the Internet is the PDN source of the majority of information, indicators, trends and outliers of what is believed about biocalamity. Combounding belief and the bioevent – real event that people react to, a non bioevent that is perceived as being real (antivax), or a real event perceived as not real (CV risk denial =2= =3=) – are what results in the parademic. These behaviors in the context of a bioevent acceleration and bioevents initial bradyoccult nature will culminate in an acute wave of biocalamity. Combined these are the biocrisis that is reported in open sources.
-A. Open source or digital ethnography, is a process of simultaneous: 1) Collection of raw data (articles); 2) Analysis (categorization, such as the simplified PDN stubs; relation to other information and context 200505-CV30); hypothesis development and testing by observing real world bioevents (mild flu season) and biocrisis (CV) 200505-CV04, 200209-1; and, 3) Synthesis of refined products of conclusions tailored to influence and inform (education, policy, decisions, worldviews, academia, other parademic research and biocrisis collection). Sub stub number 3) is only now becoming a realistic potential for PDWN, but unlikely to happen to any significant degree. If the historical pattern holds, there simply is not enough motivation to overcome resistence to the effort and change required to direct sustained time and resources toward understanding how people facilitate and hinder containment and control of biocalamaties. This will likely be true until well after the aftermath of a syndemic of multiple biocalamities accelerate. By that time the whole question maybe moot.
-B. There are a number of weaknesses, more than are listed here, to open source collection. 1) The dependence on observers and reporters who are unlikely to frame interpretations (editorial spin or objective) terms that are intended for parademic collection and analysis. 2) The original source is ephemeral unless archived in toto with the in situ metacontext 200505-CV30. Material may disappear, be changed from when originally collected lacking a record of how it evolved. The original context that gave the information meaning at the time of the time of collection will erode, possibly drifting so much as to take the opposite meaning =2= 200506-CV06. 3) It is possible to find lost data again via its metainformation: Date, author, time etc, and the URL which may be a broken link but will have the source and original title. Reconstruction and recovery of history and computer data are however time consuming, and may still not retrieve what was originally collected and its contextual meaning. 3) The raw material itself can be scattered and lost the chronological sequence without clues for dating, edited and otherwise damaged, contaminated and exploited by SLAI RIDE*C 200505-CV04A, E)↓ toward a desired interpretation. This can be partly mitigated by identifying echo chambers and silos, and expanding beyond those by looking for contrary narratives.
-*C. The seminal study The Psychology of Rumor =2=, introduced the SLA (Sharpening, Leveling, Assimilation) model that was not always recognized as informing studies of social contagion, social manipulation, folklore and myth, marketing, social psychology, law, narrative, etc [Chart, Cartoon]. SLA has likewise gone through the same process where the original meaning is not how it is used today, including by the PDN curator. Distortions of the Allport and Postman Rumor Study in the Eyewitness Testimony Literature. Recent Research Reveals False Rumours Really Do Travel Faster and Further than the Truth. Study Explores How Gossip Spreads in Social Networks.
-D. Until CV, the collection of parademic information was remote for the curator CV12. There was observation, but that was removed from personal connection and participation in the bioevent. This being one removed from what is observed benefits intellectual objectivity, but at the cost of relational involvement. Parademic’s focus on beliefs means that the critical emotional dimensions were left out – not exactly true as prior direct experience provided a basis for some empathy. This blind spot is partly mitigated by the fact that the curator has obvious biases about the metacontext 200505-CV30 of the gubergenic of health and environment. It would have been of value if the curator was able to develop collaborative relationships for feedback, constructive criticism, information sharing with other social science researchers in the same general field. That however is not possible with the current worldviews and organizational silos. POST COLLECTIO: The curator did have a small network, but that was mostly one way of me providing information to others. Though there were occasional notes back appreciating and constructive criticisms of a stub item, there was never a full and continuous feedback.
-E. Though it takes time to overcome, it is possible to identify what is hidden by intent or lack of awareness, unexamined assumptions, paradigms, vested interest toward particular interpretations, blind areas of perception. These can be compensated for during the collection and analysis to create synthesis by an application of black box model theory*F =2= =3= =4= =5=.
-*F. This is different from blackboxing, the social process where the technical, historical and complexity of a system are lost overtime as Zipf’s Law and making more user friendly (simplification) make it easier to use a system effectively and widely, without any understanding or knowledge of the inner workings (the how and why it works). Simplification is at the cost of knowing what a system limitations are (GIGO), which is left to specialists. If the system becomes habitual then the lack of awareness gets to the point that people in general have no awareness that they don’t understand, thinking they are expert (Dunning Kruger). This can become very dangerous when the system is failing, broken, encountering circumstances it is not designed for, and the controller/ operator is not aware things are out falling apart. In fact, it may be that a system has never been understood because of acceptance of an explanation that appears to be functional and socially accepted – i.e. institutionalized dogma =2= =3= (FM) and organization, becoming entrenched and resistant to contrary evidence and change – as being the relationship between cause/ action and what is SLAI RIDE A↑ to obscure that observed cause is in reality unrelated to what is observed to be the effect.
-G. These gaps in knowledge concerning devices and beliefs tend to be exposed, but rarely completely revealed, when there is a breakdown of the system(s). This is especially so with living open systems [Chart, Cartoon]), belief or devices. Unfortunately these breakdowns coincide with Finagle’s Law during disasters, biocalamities and cascading collapse. Plans and preparation (or lack of) that are based on erroneous beliefs and facts (GIGO) become useless, if not dangerous to implement, at a time when effort cannot be easily diverted to understanding what the real (as opposed to ideal) of a situation is.
-H. Currently there is a trend developing that could neutralize current parademic open source collection. With the deleterious impacts on health and environment of what is believed to be true, but is in reality false (misleading, misinformation, and disinformation), there are efforts being made to control, if not eliminate the dissemination of the erroneous and harmful information. This is not an easy task. There are the risks of violating civil rights, self serving inappropriate censorship, and unlikely to ever be total but driving the false into being an underground movement. For parademic that means that non fact information, which form a large part of dangerous parademic beliefs, are starting to be more difficult to locate. The magical, opinion as fact, fear mongering, othering, conspiracy theories and medical scams will continue, but will be harder to find as they become more covert (grey web =2=). These will likely become bradyoccult social contagions that will continue to accelerate and cause harm.
-I. The solution to erroneous information is the slow process of education of the public (and that includes mainstream media’s interpretation of science) 200507-CV03 in critical thinking, fact checking, hypothesis testing and skepticism, as well as improvement of main stream media on fact checking. Are Journalists on Autopilot When They’re Determining Which Sources (Or What Information) to Trust.
-J. There are two issues about neutralize and controlling deleterious information. 1) Science (and sustainable society) depends on free exchange of ideas, i.e. free press. If there is no forum for contrary ideas (no matter how absurd) then science (and society at large) will become based on accepted dogma influencing behaviors. 2) Beliefs systems that result in negative parademic beliefs, desire having control of information so that there is no contrary information and free thought. To achieve this Camazotz =2= =3= deleterious forces try (and sometimes succeed), to take control of education, executive, judiciary, legislation, media, enforcement and regulation, history and interpretation. The historical pattern is that this never ends up well as it tends to create conditions for biocalamity and wars, exacerbates the acceleration of biocalamity, and trends toward eventual internecine conflict within its own ranks, and with the controlled population.
-2. The Asian Giant Hornet, A.K.A. the Murder Hornet, Has Arrived. Bees Beware. With its spiked, dagger like mandibles, an Asian giant hornet can decapitate 40 honeybees per minute. Within hours, a swarm of these invasive hornets can purge a beehive. This voracious appetite for a critical pollinator poses a threat to key crops in the Pacific Northwest, where commercial beekeepers often rent their hives out to farmers growing crops like blueberries and raspberries. Indomitable Honey Bee Stings Itself Rather than Fall to Asian Hornet. [Cartoon =2= =3=].
-A. MORE: [Cartoon]. Scientists in Washington State Have Trapped Their First Murder Hornet. First Male Murder Hornet in US Captured in Washington State. A Nest with Nearly 1,500 Unborn Murder Hornets Was Just Destroyed near the BC Border =2= CV02.
-3. Boosting Your Immune System is oft used to market medical scams, natural medicine, holistic quackery, etc. It sounds reasonable to boost the immune system to protect from and treat disease, except there is a detail not mentioned. Fever, runny noses, sore throats, malaise, aches and pains, pus, vomit and diarrhea, are all signs one’s immune system is in overdrive (boosted) to fight an infection.
-A. You Don't Actually Want to 'Boost' Your Immune System because you will be ill constantly and develop an autoimmune disease. An autoimmune disease is when your immune system continues to attack your body after the pathogen is eliminated. Unless they release toxin, pathogens don’t directly kill. It’s the body immune reaction to a pathogen is what causes death and chronic conditions.
-3.1. One of the antivax logical fallacies 201206-1A is that a vaccine makes one sick. It’s true but omits a few details. A vaccine introduces a proxy, weak or dead pathogen to the immune system. This is a safer way for the immune system to recognize and react faster to a live full strength pathogen in the future. It is immune response from a vaccine that provide immunity. Usually this is unnoticeable, just as people don’t notice that their immune systems are constantly fighting bacteria and viruses every day. Only a couple thousand of the millions of germs encountered every day cause the immune reaction of sensed illness, and most are part of the healthy functioning of the human internal microbiome. In some rare cases the side effect (immune response) is stronger than desired. Even rarer among the rare is a resulting chronic condition from a boosted immune reaction. In fact, some chronic conditions (autism) that are claimed to result from vaccine have to causal relation. POST COLLECTIO: There is also mRNA vaccines that teach the immune system to recognize a pathogen. CV introduced this to the general public, with attendant disinformation.
-A. Another antivax logical fallacy 201206-1A is that vaccines don’t work, supported by the evidence that people can still get the disease. True but leaving out some pertinent fact. Few vaccines are 100% effective for life. An individual immune reaction from a vaccine may be insufficient to acquire a long term memory of a pathogen. With successful herd immunity, an individual may not encounter the pathogen for so long that the immune system has forgotten it, resulting in reemerging disease of vaccine controlled diseases that are not given boosters or reintroduction to a germ. There are also pathogens and environmental pollutants that wipe away the memory of the pathogen and/or weaken immune capacity. Add malnutrition and other stresses where the ability immune system may remember the pathogen, but the body lacks the capacity to have the surge capacity to manufacture a response. This is analogous to when a nation defunds and/or stops maintaining its public health and medical surge capacities or has forgotten pre vaccination and antibiotic times when disease outbreaks were a norm.
-4. Make Science Evolve into a One Health Approach to Improve Health and Security: A White Paper. There is a significant increase in the emergence of infectious agents and the risk of new pandemics as exemplified by the spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza since 2003, the pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009, influenza H7N9 in 2013, SARS, MERS, chikungunya, dengue, Zika and Ebola. It is relevant to note that SARS, as the first novel pandemic threat of the new millennium, has clearly demonstrated that previously unknown pathogens can emerge from a wildlife source at any time in any place and without warning, threaten the health, well being and economies of all societies. There was a clear need for countries to have the capability and capacity to maintain an effective alert and response system to detect and quickly react to outbreaks of international concern, and to share information about such outbreaks rapidly and transparently. Responding to pandemic threats requires global cooperation and global participation. Combined with the growing globalization of health risks and the importance of the human/ animal/ ecosystem interface in the evolution and emergence of pathogens, the best solution appears to be a One Health approach.
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