Updated: 220615
CV Pandemic Daily Notes, 200511, 200512, 200513, 200514, 200515, 200516, 200517
1. Tipping Points, Cascades, Acceleration, Deceleration, Inflection, Over the edge, Secondary Collapse
-1. The term Tipping Point invokes a strong visual image [Video] of collapse. However, tipping point is a simplified heuristic that can be misleading. A tipping point is not always a clear point of deceleration, acceleration or deflection. The point can change from a change in another factor, or from changes in multiple factors adjusting to changes elsewhere in the system. In fact there is no such thing as a single tipping point, and observing what seems to be an unrelated tipping point can be a harbinger of what will happen to the tipping point of interest, such as extinction of multiple species are likely to foreshadow extinction of homo saps. Multiple tipping points normally provide stability to the whole, but again a number of factors can weaken the inherent stability and cause a crash, the whole system upending or going over the edge. 201011-CV16A. MORE: Tipping Mechanisms Could Spark Societal Change Towards Climate Stabilization. May 2022 #Document The Turning Point: A Global Summary, failure to act on climate change could cost the global economy over $178 trillion over the next 50 years. That’s a nearly 8% drop in global GDP caused by factors like heat stress, sea level rise, damage to infrastructure from wildfires and extreme weather, health impacts, agricultural losses and more. Translated into human terms: Crops would fail. Health care spending would rise. People would stop traveling. The report also focused on what happens if countries and companies make a firm commitment to get to net zero carbon emissions by midcentury. The bottom line is $43 trillion added to the global economy. Many of the technologies and business models to rapidly decarbonize exist: they just have to be implemented and could reduce the economic harm of continued warming and bring new jobs, industries, innovations and opportunities in a decarbonized global economy.
-A. A single tipping point sets off bradyoccult cascades of accelerations/ decelerations throughout systems. These slow and hidden chain reactions (cascades) eventually manifest on the macro scale, causing more waves of collapses and upthrusts, resulting in more destabilization. Paradoxically, efforts to stabilize a single potential tipping point tends to delay its collapse, but translates into not maintaining other potential tipping points, increasing the instability.
-B. The remains of a collapse are not necessarily stable, but create multiple other instabilities, similar to a recently collapsed building becoming more unstable, hindering rescue of those trapped due to risk of further collapse onto rescuers. In living systems a collapse of one may have no impact on other tipping points, or profoundly impacts all tipping points. Then there are differences between tipping points that lead to collapses. Some collapses don’t rebound, or rebound higher than anticipated, both potentially resulting in more disruptions (positive and negative) of the system and a second collapse (Seneca Effect). It can be that in some situations there are temporary superior results when what is collapsed or upthrusted is not repaired or reinforced.
Comments