Updated: 230206
CV Pandemic Daily Notes, 200601, 200602, 200603, 200604, 200605, 200606, 200607
1. BradyOccult, 1.1. Black Elephants, Ignored Coming Disasters, 2. Heartbeat of Wounded Knee, 3. Climate Science, Legal Recognition or Legal Denial
-1. Brady (Slow) Occult (Hidden), are medical terms combined to describe the characteristic of global biocalamity as extremely slow processes that can take multiple human generations, while the deterioration and agents are largely invisible to human perception, or ignored. That is until the process has accelerated (the cross over point from linear growth to exponential growth, a tipping point) 201011-CV16A [Chart]. At that point what is not noticed, ignored or covered up becomes denial in the face of evidence. 201004-1
-A. Bradyoccult can likewise be applied to social evolution. Evolution is not limited to growth/ improvement but can include shrinking/ deterioration. There tends to be a lag between trends and consequences, Cause-Effect. In terms of human behavior there is usually a lag between recognition of consequences. If the consequences are negative, unexpected, unintended – usually a mix of temporary benefit and long term harm – taking corrective actions or exploiting the event for gain.
-B. With the delay of corrective and mitigating responses the results in costs in losses and needed time and effort for corrective action are exponentially larger than if action had started before or soon after the transition when what was bradyoccult accelerate to Acute and eventually Overt (though denial will continue). This is the disruption [Chart] after the tipping point 201011-CV16A, the attention grabbing part of parademic that subsides are a new stability is reached, to include the statsis of extinction and dormancy. Parademic actually covers the whole curve from its first beginnings to it highest peaks and lowest troughs, to the end of its final tailing off.
-1.1. Black Elephant Disasters. A better term than Black Swan*, 210101-CV31. As I look back over the last 20 years, what all four of these global calamities have in common is that they are all black elephants [Photo =2= =3=], a term coined by the environmentalist Adam Sweidan. A black elephant is a cross between “a black swan” (an unlikely, unexpected event with enormous ramifications) and the “elephant in the room” (a looming disaster that is visible to everyone, yet no one wants to address). Black Swan: A Rare Disaster, Not as Rare as OnceBelieved. Coronavirus Is Significant, but Is it a True Black Swan Event. [Meme]. 200723-CV06B. 200830-CV16.
-*A. Black Swan 210101-CV31 in modern times was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and first applied to unexpected financial down turns and latter applied to the full range of unexpected events and impossible disaster. However, the term as used was not what the author originally meant. Unexpected does not mean impossible, but rather implies that assessment, risk analysis, confirmation bias, cherry picking data and more resulted in conclusions that are unwarranted 200909-CV01. Disasters and unintended consequences are usually easily predictable in hindsight afforded by disastrous consequences. In fact, it is rare to not find research had been done warning of the disaster and were Leveled out. Black Swan in usage is a term that excused those who caused the harm because it was unpredictable, even though there are indicators that some of these events were known but called unlikely as it is common that people who caused the event profited by it or were interested in saving costs. MORE: Climate Change News: Report Warns of Green Swan Events, Calls on Central Banks to Act.
-2. Just finished reading The Heartbeat of Wounded Knee =2= =3= =4= =5= [Cover]. Books are not experiences read independently of its context. A book about the collapse of a population and its cultures through disease, MORE: environmental destruction, internal conflict, gubergenic, an invasive Other, technology ... by someone who has studied and experienced the interaction of these phenomena for decades, is informative but not a comfortable experience.
-A. Reading this book during a low intensity global pandemic that originated with and was exacerbated by anthropogenic behaviors, are the same ones that irrevocably changed the pre Columbian people of North America, and are currently in process of destroying the society of the invasive Others (European diaspora/ colonizers) who accelerated the demise of the native peoples, gives it a context of meaning that the author likely did not anticipate.
-B. Heartbeat in this current context is depressing to read, and yet gives hope. The book’s epilogue includes Black Elk’s Vision, which is not dissimilar from an interpretation framed of the biosphere and socialsphere as interacting systems [Graphic]. It also asks the question: “What kind of country do we want to be”. That question is for something that is slowly becoming moot. The question has evolved to, “What kind of world do we want to be”.
-3. US Courts Accept Climate Science. Can Trump and McConnell Undo That. A survey of court cases suggests there is now widespread judicial agreement that humans are indeed warming the climate. Will that agreement persist in the face of efforts by Trump and Republican Senators to appoint a record number of conservative judges. We Must Treat Climate Change as a Racial Justice Issue.
-A. Junk Science in the Courtroom. In the last 20 years I have been called to jury duty several times. Every time I was dismissed almost instantly, once I made it known that I am a professional skeptic. Apparently lawyers fear that kind of skepticism on their juries. It is unclear how best to interpret these anecdotes, but what is clear is that justice requires facts and needs to align optimally with reality. Falsehoods and pseudoscience do not generally lead to justice. It is for this reason that courtrooms have elaborate rules of evidence, and generally they work well, unless the courts and legal system are corrupted by an ideology like originalism/ texturalism and/or a criminal organization.
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