CV Pandemic Daily Notes, 200622, 200623, 200624, 200625, 200626, 200627, 200628
-1. Collection and Analysis; Problem and Not Problem Identification, Understanding, Unsolvable, 2. Deforestation and Disease, 3. Resource and Operation Coordination, 4. Arctic Heat Wave
-1. The first step in problem identification and definition is collection and analysis. There are always biocalamity problems, but not all are actually problems that need humans to solve, or are ones that cannot be solved in the current context and capabilities. However, if one waits for a problem to manifest itself (accelerates or decelerates) as one that needs to be addressed, it is likely too late to solve the problem easily – we are already well past that point for several global scale biocalamities. At a minimum during one’s term of responsibility one can identify problems that will eventually be (more) harmful, explain why it is a problem and why it could not be solved at the time. The why is likely to be a list of other problems needed to be addressed before the primary one is solvable. This does not necessarily mean being fully resolved, but can be neutralized from continued influence or nudged and shaped into a different trend.
-A. The first effort in collection and analysis is learning about and understanding the whole situation, the milieu, capabilities, purpose, organization, internal (what is possible) and external (expectations) contexts, actors, history, current trends. This is not limited to the ideal formal and official situation, but encompass the larger and multifaceted real, informal. In some cases this may require contravening erroneous and official framing of situations, but not forgetting that those worldviews are part of the situation itself. In collection one is not looking for problems, but how interrelated systems operate and interact. Analysis in largely, but not fully, identification of problems that currently or will eventually interfere with the operation of a system, and descriptive to make it possible to perceive the situation, especially if bradyoccult. A threat to systems is not always a problem, but an evolution of the interacting system, their function, a risk to a no longer functional status quo, and possibly even that the system should be permitted to decline as it is replaced by a better adapted system.
-B. Understanding is the ability to identify what is the intention (formal appointed and the informal acquired and accrued) and what are the resulting outcomes (some being unintended). For understanding outcomes one needs to know what is reported as the outcomes (usually expressed as being successful), and then the actual conditions to identify the real and complete outcomes. If there is a mismatch it is likely that there are problems that needs to be solved, but are currently bradyoccult. If unsolvable within the current context, one can at least identify a trend toward a collapse of the system and correct the smaller problems that contribute to the eventually fatal (existential) accumulation, possibly even nudging trends toward more positive outcomes.
-C. Vital to understanding a situation is identification of what is right with the system,
making sure that solutions do not neutralize or destroy what is correct, beneficial, or a correction in process. Understanding means that analysis has correctly identified (and in living systems correct keeps changing) what needs to be saved (at least salvaged) now or can be delayed for fixing until later, carried into the evolving situation, and what needs to be changed or eliminated. Often times, when a solution is imposed to solve a problem, it will cause unanticipated problems and unintended consequences, sometimes worse than the original (likely over simplified) problem. Indeed a problem may be a key factor that keeps a system functioning and operational. Always beware when at the outset the problem is already defined or obvious (especially if defined in the singular, or expressed at what the boss/ customer wants). More often than not the problem has been misdefined, or overly limited to be a quick and cheap bandaid* to allow the current status quo to limp along with minimal effort, than an actual fix of a system. In the main there are more things going right, and one does not want to lose those, with the desire to be seen as a problem solver, an effective leader, a performing manager.
-*. Temporary superficial fix. Drive by humanitarian Aid. Parachute Aid. An ambulance at the bottom of a cliff.
-D. One of the cues that there is a massive unidentified problem is the belief that there are no problems, no gaps in capabilities, no unexamined assumptions, that everything if fine and all is in readiness. In such a situation it is likely that the shell of appearance is more important than the inner workings, that meeting standards that don’t measure effect have become the standard of self assessment. This is frequently a problem in itself as it can be correctly pointed out that the problem did not exist until problem solvers appeared, especially when there is an authority that has a vested interest in appearance or a particular solution. Same principle as not being sick until I went to the hospital for a minor issue or check up.
-E. The whole parademic database is an example of collection and analysis, ten years of effort to try to understand the situation of people and biosphere interactions. Unfortunately at this time the problem of sharing that understanding is caught up in the confluence of crises of the moment (a very long moment). On the other hand maybe sharing is not critical. Ten years ago there were few (and by that I mean none) available items and literature on anthropogenic, much less recognition that threats to health and environment were black elephants, not just improbable black swans. A decade ago the idea of any permanent institution for health and environment biocalamity was dismissed by decision makers, now decision makers are blaming why something was not done years earlier. Unlikely parademic itself will be adopted, but just maybe something like it will independently evolve as understanding that biocalamities are not just a clinical problem, but one with social dimensions that can facilitate or hinder solutions, and exacerbate the situations.
-F. Example of a misstated (incomplete) problem. Public Health Experts Urge Lawmakers to Focus on Future Pandemics. A panel of public health experts called on Congress to focus on creating a mechanism that would help create vaccines for future pandemics, even as the world is working to cope with the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Definitely the problem of surge capacity to develop and produce vaccines relatively quickly is important. However, the effort can be one that is easily neutralized. To create this capability will require global cooperation, coordinated global public health to allow the time to do this (flatten the curve), and competing narratives and interests that would rather not have vaccines. It will also mean diverting resources from other critical needs, and focus on an old solution without consideration that there may be technologies now that are a better solution. It is also assuming CV can be solved permanently with a vaccine. This indicates there is has been a major need for basic pure research in zoonosis and environmental diseases for a long time.
-2. Like Poking a Beehive: The Worrisome Link Between Deforestation and Disease. Scientists have long warned that the reshaping of Earth's landscapes will have broad ramifications for the climate and biodiversity. A growing body of evidence shows that forest loss and fragmentation can also increase the risk of animal borne infectious disease, similar to the type that's currently upending the world. 200622-CV21
-3. EOC Versus ECC. Which term do you use -- and why. The term Emergency Operations Center (EOC) came out of military applications. Just as any military person will recognize the Incident Command System (ICS) as having its origins in how the military operates (but first used by fire departments), so too there was an adoption of the term EOC as a place where people gather to respond to disasters.
-A. Adopting the term Emergency Coordination Center can be very beneficial to a host of people who are unfamiliar with emergencies and disasters. When they are directed to go to an ECC, they immediately will understand that they are there to coordinate with others. If someone in government is assigned to work at the ECC, they immediately understand that they don’t command anyone.
-4. The Arctic Is on Fire: Siberian Heat Wave Alarms Scientists worried about what it means for the rest of the world.
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