CV Pandemic Daily Notes 200804

CV01. Protection: Sanitary Cordons, CV02. Humor: Spreaders, CV03. Information: Russian Fake News Censor, CV04. Politics: Elections under Pandemic Conditions, CV06. Linguistics: Hard to Explain Concepts, CV07. Emergence: Florida, Test Shopping, Hoarding, Causing Cascades, CV07.1. State Cooperation on Tests, CV12. Personal, Relationships: Weddings, CV23. Polemic, Myphysis: Military Medical Personnel Relief, CV25. Movement: Quick Clean Arounds, CV28. Logistics: Disinfection Wipes, CV28.1. Medical Supply Game, CV30. Methodology: Netherlands, Data on Ignoring Data, CV30.1. Comparing Pandemics, CV31. Futuring: Year Round Fires and Outbreaks

PDN Introduction.

CV01. Protection: Sanitary Cordons in Covid-19: Experience and the Object of Epidemiological Interventions. What is the object of epidemiological interventions during an epidemic. Is it the virus, the disease, the fear, the chaos, or the threat to security. And what is the objective of those interventions. Is it to eliminate the virus, to mitigate the effects of the disease, to calm the fear, to control the chaos, or to defeat the threat.

-A. Seems unrealistic in a world with aircraft ^CV25↓, cruise ships, misinformation, and unwillingness to take protective measures.

CV02. Humor: [Cover].

CV03. Information: Russian Censor Opens ‘Fake News’ Cases Against Independent Newspaper for Reports about Two New Alleged Coronavirus Outbreaks.

CV04. Politics: There Have Been 38 Statewide Elections During the Pandemic. Here’s How They Went.

CV06. Linguistics: Why the Pandemic Introduces Language That Is Hard to Explain. New words and phrases like "flatten the curve", "social distancing", and "stop the spread" have entered our pandemic lexicon at a dramatic rat3

CV07. Emergence: Shopping for Coronavirus Testing Has Become a Thing in Florida. As the virus infects Floridians at a record pace, wait times at test sites and long turnarounds for results have people taking multiple tests at multiple sites. Desperate for an accurate diagnosis, they strategize, and even pay, to get faster test results.

-A. This is equivalent to hoarding. When something essential becomes scarce (or is rumored to be scarce) people hoard it, getting more than they need, taxing the supply system more. With unreliable tests, daily breaking of records of new cases, false positives and false negatives, needing to repeat tests, long wait times for results, long wait times to be tested, it is not surprising people will go to multiple locations, thereby taxing the system more, causing resorting to unreliable tests, longer wait times to be tested and get results.

-B. This is essentially a cascading disaster, where failures in one of more systems causes failures in other systems, which bring down other systems. 200729-CV27, 200728-CV21. Fact Check: A Florida Motorcycle Death Is Not Undermining the Accuracy of State's Coronavirus Death Numbers. Florida Mistake on Child Covid-19 Rate Raises Question: Can Florida’s Numbers Be Trusted. The CDC said it “made a mistake” and reduced its count of Florida COVID-19 cases from 90,000 to 11,000. | Miami Medical Teams Feel Helpless as Covid-19 Devastates South Florida. Ron DeSantis Cuts Phone Line Outside Nursing Home So No One Can Report Coronavirus Data ^CV02. Five Who Attended Same Sheriffs Meeting as Ron Desantis Test Positive for Coronavirus.

CV07.1. Seven Governors Join Deal in Pursuit of First Multistate Coordinated Testing Strategy, Michigan among States to Sidestep Trump to Buy Millions of Coronavirus Tests. About time. When tests and other medical supplies were short and the federal government chose not to help out in a coordination role, the states should have immediately gone to mutual aid rather than the competition that happened. This is not limited to the US UN Chief Criticizes Lack of Global Cooperation on COVID-19. 200526-CV28, 200503-1.

CV12. Personal, Relationships: No Masks, No Distance: Pandemic Wedding Horrors for Vendors. Wedding planners, photographers and other bridal vendors who make the magic happen have a heap of new worries in the middle of the pandemic: no mask weddings, rising guest counts and venues not following the rules.

-A. Now that weddings have slowly cranked up under a patchwork of ever shifting state and local restrictions, horror stories from vendors are rolling in. Many are desperate to work after the coronavirus put an abrupt end to their incomes and feel compelled to put on their masks, grab their cameras and hope for the best.

CV23. Polemic, Myphysis: Military Helps Worn out Nurses, Sicker Patients in California Covid-19 Effort. Some National Guards and the Federal Reserves have large medical assets, but as civilians they are largely already engaged and already facing shortages of personnel. With CV being wide spread through out the US with existing and potential hot spots, deploying people to areas, leaving other areas unprotected is not a good idea.

-A. MORE: Trump Singles out Texas and Florida for Help with Coronavirus Response, likely there will be response from other states and the National Guard Bureau. Trump Temporarily Exempts Arizona, California, Connecticut from National Guard Coronavirus Deployment Cuts. National Guard Headed to Pullman to Help Slow Coronavirus.

CV25. Movement: Southwest Airlines Cuts Back on Covid-19 Cleanings to Speed up Flight Turnarounds ^CV01A↑.

CV28. Logistics: Clorox Won't Have Enough Disinfecting Wipes until 2021, its CEO Says ^CV01.

CV28.1. The Raging Competition for Medical Supplies Is Not a Game, but Game Theory Can Help.

CV30. Methodology: New Dutch Coronavirus Cases Spike in past Week - Health Authorities. New confirmed coronavirus cases nearly doubled in the Netherlands over the past week to 2,588, health authorities said, continuing a steady surge ongoing since lockdown measures were eased at the start of July. Dutch Government Will Not Advise Public to Wear Masks =2= =3= =4= =5=.

-A. This appears to be a consistent pattern. Expose people to an infectious disease and they get sick. Lower vaccination for a vaccine preventable disease and they get sick. Relax social distancing for an infectious disease before containment and control and people will get sick. Apophenia is when there is no pattern and connection yet one is seen [Cartoon]. Opposites of Apophenia, not seeing patterns that are there include willful ignorance, ignoring cognitive dissonance, moral harm (conflict of what is right and what one has to do. Randomania, the opposite of apophenia, is when you actually do experience a revelation but you confuse it for delusion, or when a pattern does exist but you fail to notice it. Between these two extremes is agenticity, the tendency to infuse patterns with meaning, intention, and agency. In other words, the pattern is real but meaningless (or means something other than how it is interpreted), yet we assign it meaning.

-*B. The opposite of willful ignorance is not becoming knowledgeable but deliberate ignorance. Deliberate ignorance =2= =3= =4= =5= =6= is a reasoned decision that the consequences of having information will injure and undermine relationships, no longer pertinent, avoid having to take negative actions.

CV30.1. A Room with a View: Observations from Two Pandemics. From my balcony, I see Tampa Bay’s calm water, the Dali Museum’s distinctive architecture, the Mahaffey Theater’s empty parking lot, the balconies and porches of St, Petersburg, Florida, around me, but I see no people. It is quiet, even the dogs seem to respect the ‘self-isolation’ I find myself practicing. The COVID-19 pandemic is like a leitmotif of fear in the air this morning; recurring but neither visible nor silent. I live in a space in which the virus does not yet seem real, but I know that it is and that it will be much more palpable soon. It is a strange limbo. I am self isolating, observing all the protections I can and yet I know the worst is still to come. It gives me a strange sense of both power and powerlessness, competing for my balance. It is this ‘off balancing’ that most engages and disturbs me. It is the contrast between the beauty of my surroundings with palm fronds and bougainvillea, and the knowledge that millions of people are losing their jobs and have no insurance or future prospects. It is the unreality of the morning as I sit at my computer as I have for so many years, thinking about pandemics, and how this one is unlike any other I have ever researched or taught about. It is unprecedented.

-A. I research and teach about global patterns of infectious disease. My experience with water-borne, water-washed and other water-related diseases such as dysentery, cholera and dengue hemorrhagic fever gives me a view of how people respond to a health crisis. Yet this COVID-19 is the ‘novel corona virus’ because understandings of its properties and behaviors are still unfolding. What is shared between my disease experience and this ‘novel’ current one is that their control hinges on a most difficult, intractable and recalcitrant variable, human behavior. control.

-B. Cholera is a bacterial, oral-fecal transmitted disease. To break the transmission chain, accessible and reliable water supply and effective sanitation are required. Both systems take time and money to put in place, but are possible. In 1990s pandemic, the disease was well known and means to control it were established and well tested. Its presence stemmed from the failure to provide facilities for basic hygiene. COVID-19, on the other hand, is a viral, droplet borne disease, not well understood, and there are no established means to cure or control it. However, both pandemics depend on human behavior for their spread and continuance. And human behavior is very difficult to change.

-C. In the 1990s pandemic, the behavior in question was immensely personal and private: defecation patterns and individual hygiene. To curb the spread of the pandemic, large population centers imported portable toilets and bottled water, endured massive education campaigns and, as people changed their behaviors, succeeded in controlling the spread of the disease. However, in extremely isolated, remote, geographically dispersed populations with well documented distrust of authorities, the necessary change was much less responsive to public health interventions about behavior and the invisible disease. While urban centers controlled the spread of the disease, in the rural areas of the high Andes, cholera continued to extract terrible human costs, especially among those least able to recover. Those are the communities where anthropology made a difference. Then, as now in the COVID 19 pandemic, disease makes starkly visible the underlying social cleavages embedded in history and constantly reified in social, economic and political structures. Even in these early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, its costs are being borne disproportionally by those least able to recover.

-D. My balcony view of the COVID-19 pandemic forces me to recognize how little has changed since the 1990s crisis. Once again, human behavior is the target of policy makers’ attempts to control the spread of a disease. Only now physical proximity is the behavior targeted by authorities, rather than addressing the underlying social and economic drivers that make social isolating behavior impossible for many to achieve. I am set off balance by the apparent peace and calm afforded by my privilege, knowing that it comes at the cost of others’ well being.

CV31. Futuring: Experts No Longer Expect Seasonal Coronavirus Waves: The Pandemic Is like 'A Forest Fire Looking for Human Wood to Burn. Comparing infectious disease outbreaks with a conflagration has been around for centuries, possibly with the association to mass cremations, the association of plague with the Great Fire of London, the belief that smoke would hold off miasma, and the humor theory of disease with its fevers ^CV18. This has entered the lexicon with a disease “coming and burning through”, “burning out” “flare up” is part of the lexicon to describe outbreaks ^CV06. 200731-CV29, 200711-CV01, 200630-CV05.1, 200510-CV17, 200425-CV22, 200329-3.3, 200327-CV5. This compares to other biocalamity being related to fire such as drought [Photo Bill Nye’s Message to Young Revelers Defying Covid-19 Guidance].