Parademic Database Week Notes Ending 200906 Spears

Parademic Database Week Notes Ending #(200906) EDIT Spears

CV Pandemic Daily 200831, 200901, 200902, 200903, 200904, 200905, 200906

Read This First, Glossary

-1. SPEARS (Supplement, Pooling, Enhance, Augment, Replace, Supersede), Logistics at point of use, 2. Increasing Frequency of Fires, 3. Presidential Health Skepticism, 4. Global Bio Intelligence and Security, Global Surveillance Revived, 5. Still Warming

-1. The current CV pandemic and syndemics, along with the ongoing environmental change and damage, all demonstrate the critical need for and the gaps in logistics. Logistics is the total system of getting raw materials, manufacturing into products, transportation to where needed in a useable form, storage and maintenance. Logistics are a major part of effectively dealing with a biocalamity and form part of parademic.

            -A. No single country, or collection of countries are capable to providing the full spectrum of logistics on a global scale, and in fact by only focusing on itself can exacerbate global problems that will ultimately endanger the self centered county. The sharing of resources, research and development, knowledge, industry, shipping, standards, repair, continuing of functioning, distribution and safety are an absolute necessity. Furthermore, the logistics system is complicated by the systems of politics and economics.

            -B. A parademic model for the sharing of logistical chain requirements (to include the long political and economic chains) at the behavioral point of usage during a biocalamity is SPEARS: Supplement, Pooling, Enhance, Augment, Replace, Supersede. SPEARS does not describe the whole system. It is intended as starting with the end in mind, as a rough planning guide for logistical purpose to give an idea of purpose, quantity, duration, source, and likelihood it may be available after use again somewhere else or at a future time.

            -C. Supplement: Support of additional personnel, capabilities and/or equipment that are the same as existent resources of a biocalamity area for a surge in needs (medical, engineering, supply, etc), or simply to give personnel who have been working 24/7 a break. This can usually be for a specified time, at a location where needed, and is relatively easy to withdraw to return to home area or send to another location. Especially useful for when an additional burden is put on a community such as a evacuation centers, mass fatality, mass care situations, and in fact much of Disaster Management is designed for this. If done in a timely matter with sufficient resources at point of need Supplement can contain and control to a smaller area making it easier to eradicate. Unfortunately in today’s world most biocalamities have already become global and are near acceleration. Supplement becomes whack a mole providing temporary and permanent fixes to prevent or mitigate acceleration, and then moving on to the next, pre crisis management.

            -D. Pooling: Biocalamity resources are expensive, and become more expensive the longer action is delayed. However, if a region practices mutual aid across jurisdictions, the costs of purchase, training, and maintenance can be spread out in space and time, with sufficient redundancy that if one area with the resource is not available another can provide. These usually are focused on local chronic conditions. Low frequency high damage events (which at acceleration become more frequent and have higher damage) can be shared between regions, possibly the national and international levels. Again the are relatively easy to withdraw when need has ended, but more likely to require expendable resources that will need replacement and require mobility and capability to created infrastructure for delivery.

            -E. Enhance: Consists of capabilities and expertise that are greater than existing services, often times a newly developed capability, or even one that did not exist before and had to be created, such as a vaccine for a novel pathogen. Enhancement allows faster (but still safe development), the processing of larger numbers for a larger region more rapidly. In smaller situation Enhancement can increase the efficiency of containment and control to a smaller area. In most cases an Enhancement is very specialized for specific circumstances, but in some cases Enhancements become a chronic necessity, that are Pooled, or become a regional Supplement.

            -F. Augment: Increase of existing and enhancing resources providing more logistical support of work force, resources, and expertise. Augmenting is likely to be support and ancillary services such as construction, search, security, food services, public information, transport, rest areas, etc. Best used when containment and control become a longer process taking a wider area, where the epicenters are still overwhelming a hot zone. This likely will include the warm zone that is not impacted yet, but requires prevention, mitigation and a buffer. It is likely that this level of support will become permanent, such as centralizing around a depopulated area.

            -G. Replace: Used with capabilities that become unavailable from intentional denial of use, lost due contamination or expended (hopefully replace before completely expended), neutralization, loss of access, destruction, or otherwise being overwhelmed. Once provided there should be no plan to move to another location in the near term, as the situation will likely continue to be eroded personnel and supplies. This is usually due to breakdown in storage, supply and/or manufacture chains that were unable to handle the surge. Unlikely that the biocalamity will immediately be contained and controlled, increasing the likelihood of spread beyond a region, perhaps into a global cascade into other systems or other areas with the precursor biocalamity that are near the tipping point of acceleration. Replacement and increasing biosecurity needs as the capability and resources are likely limited, concurrent with civil disturbance, theft, black market, corruption, hoarding and hijacking. This is likely to be concurrent with instability, civil disturbance, armed conflict, disinformation, and exploitation.

            -H. Supersede. The replacement of outdated, inefficient or wrong resource and methods by substitution of newer equipment, procedures or personnel. This is usually the case with novel pathogens, when Public Health systems have not been maintained, and long term ignoring the potential acceleration to include social determinants that exacerbate parademic and the impact of the biocalamity. Due to the initial shortage it is very unlikely to be mobile, in fact a region may refuse to give up even after a need is over. This implies that there will be legal use of force when it is found that a community is threatening other communities, is preventing access to an area (sometime a mass hostage situation), or a criminal enterprise has hijacked a community, especially during Recovery and Intra Pandemic (between surges of a biocalamity). Supersede can include supporting an emergent response that is effective. Official sources may not always be able to best solve a problem, while locals and/or amateurs may come up with solutions. Officials tend to resist what is “Not from Us”, so Superseding includes giving up their own egos and procedures.

            -I. MORE: Protective masks would be a simple case study of SPEARS, medical surge, and resistance to new evidence.

-2. A Pandemic of Wildfire, Part 1. The blaze captured in the false color satellite image is just one small part of a much bigger wildfire, which is just one among hundreds that have scorched Siberia since winter ice and snow melted in May. Part 2, for days on end, smoke from 2020's burning season formed an acrid, smothering blanket over vast stretches of territory, causing health threatening deterioration of air quality in highly populated areas of California, Colorado and other areas. We Know How to Prevent Megafires. We're Just Not Doing It.

-3. Political Obfuscation and Medical Speculation. Politicians have long endeavored to keep their health concerns secret. In US presidential politics, the efforts of both incumbents and candidates to project vitality and minimize frailty have at times bordered on the surreal.

            -A. Given this track record, it is understandable that many Americans respond skeptically to politicians’ claims of robust health. In late 2019, President Donald Trump’s unscheduled visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center touched off fevered speculation about his health status. The White House’s explanation that Trump was completing his annual physical exam in stages did little to tamp down rumors of a cardiac or neurological event, necessitating a memo from the president’s physician to offer validation. Doctor: T he American People Deserve to Know about Trump's Walter Reed Visit.

-4. Security, Intelligence and the Global Health Crisis. The impact of COVID-19 both globally and in Canada has raised important questions about best practices with regard to global and domestic health surveillance, early warning and preparedness. Critical to an understanding of these issues is a clear sighted appreciation of the interface between health security and national security. As the world embarks on an intense effort to explain the onset of the pandemic and to learn lessons from the global response, it will be vital to develop and sustain a public policy debate about the role of security and intelligence institutions in protecting societies against pandemic outbreaks. This essay series – designed to bridge academic and practitioner knowledge – aims to make a high impact contribution to that debate. 200902-CV04. In an Era of Coronavirus, Do Not Forget Security.

            -A. U.S. Will Revive Global Virus Hunting Effort Ended Last Year. A new version of Predict, the federal government's recently expired initiative to identify dangerous pathogens worldwide, is expected to be unveiled in October. U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which led Predict, has created a new, $100 million initiative with a similar purpose, called STOP Spillover.

            -B. Preparedness Spending Exploded After 9/11. Is That Helping Now. The U.S. invested billions in public health infrastructure and preparedness after 9/11. Is that helping with Covid-19. Parademic has noted the funding for public health has dropped off for years, leaving in unprepared for CV. In addition post 9/11 funding focused on bioweapons and ignored natural outbreaks, so much of the spending was misdirected.

-5. Just a reminder, the environment is still warming. Whatever Happened to ... the Melting Permafrost. Spoiler alert: It's still melting. A new study looks at the impact of rising rainfall. Meanwhile, scientists are more concerned about environmental threats than defrosting pathogens. 200529-CV26.

            -A. MORE: Nov 2022  Scientists Revive 48,500 Year Old ‘Zombie Virus’ from Siberian Permafrost. Dec 2022 Scientists Revive 48,500 Year Old Virus, Setting World Record. Ancient Virus Discovery Will Not Spark a New Pandemic.