Fauci Says There Are 5 Stages of the Covid Pandemic – and We Are Still in Phase 1.
-0. Direct quotation from the above subject article. My comments.
-1. The first phase is the pandemic. In parademic this is called “Acceleration” which applies to any biosphere calamity. Biocalamities of internal health and external environment are constant in living systems, and likely existed but unnoticed until they change from logarithmic to exponential growth =2=. This Acceleration is beyond the capacity to recover to the previous state, becoming an existential crisis. Currently there are several different biocalamities that are in acceleration around the globe, not just CV (Covid), and these synergize to create syndemics.
-2. Deceleration: After the first phase comes deceleration – a slowdown in the number of new cases. Unfortunately, deceleration in parademic includes when there is a decrease in population numbers resulting in fewer potential victims/hosts, or that the infrastructure to keep track of new morbidity and mortality has collapsed due to depopulation. Deceleration is not necessarily a good thing as the Deceleration of any living population is a biocalamity. However, decelerations always end with a plateau at a lower population number than before the acceleration of a biocalamity (possible to rebound), or until the population reaches statistical zero. Zero means that the population is so small, lacking habitat or means to reproduce, that rebound of the population is not possible.
-A. Containment is not a term used in the subject article, but a parademic term borrowed from wildland fire fighting, fire metaphors of disease outbreaks having a long history. The biocalamity – drought driven megafires being one type of biocalamity – is contained to a geographic and/or temporal space, preventing spread to more available hosts or environments (fuels). Parademic usually pairs Containment followed by Control because it is impossible to achieve Control of a pandemic if there are still gaps in containment by medical and social (Non Medical Interventions NMIs) measures and then maintained until the outbreak finally burns out or goes dormant. As a global pandemic, CV will not be Controlled until it is Contained worldwide, with decreasingly smaller areas (populations, environments, anthromes), that are not connected, are unable to breach areas that are Controlled, and that restrictions that Containment of CV are not eased too soon=2=.
-B. Containment of disease causing agents, both organic and inorganic, is difficult to maintain because it may go dormant until changing conditions allow its population to rebound, or contaminants are released again into the environment by accident, criminal negligence or after rollback of regulations =2=. The agents may evolve to be able to escape the Containment measures or have adapted to go hibernate or be covertly stored when there are adverse conditions. Over time, the vigilance and maintenance of medical and social control tend to relax and the regulated Containment is lost. Last, the initial growth can be bradyoccult (slow hidden) and may go unnoticed until after it Accelerates*C↓ again.
-*C. Readers are probably familiar with the Social Media term, “Viral”, referring to how widely and quickly viral social media spreads (i.e., accelerates). It does not matter if the viral media is true or not, in fact there are indications that the less true an item is the more likely it is to go viral – Conspiracy Theory, Misinformation =2=, Rumor =2=, Fraud, Medical Scams, Fear Mongering, Betrumping =2=, Infodemic – and cause damage to populations and environments (society). Going viral is an apt term for the CV Pandemic. These viral messages have hampered and neutralized Containment and Control, allowing CV to spread widely, and permits time for it to evolve and circumvent Containment and Control measures, thereby letting the pandemic continue for a longer time. The wider and longer the pandemic endures the more lives are lost, the more likely those infected end up with chronic conditions, resulting in more economic damage =2=. With continued inability to Contain and Control it becomes more likely that pathogens have a chance to become more severe, permanently endemic 3A↓ and the more draconian social Containment and Control measures will be needed. [Cartoon].
-3. Control. The next phase is the control phase of the pandemic – or what some are referring to as endemicity =2=. That means that Covid-19 becomes integrated into the broad range of infectious diseases we commonly experience. It is present, but at a level that does not disrupt society.
-A. Endemic refers to a disease, or disease-like social conditions, that is native to an area or population, and likely seasonal. Endemicity is a neologism 9↓ =2= =3= =4=. Endemicity can be: 1) herd immunity; 2) dormancy of the agent in a reservoir population (human and non human) that carry the disease but are immune to it; 3) a new normal that accepts continued waves of higher frequency and lethality of disease outbreaks; 4) or the public has adapted to interpret that a disease is milder. In some cases the causative agent may evolve to not be as quickly fatal to or become symbiotic with the hosts, allowing it to continue to thrive. Endemicity is likely a temporary condition when there are no current strains that cause serious disease in humans, or the unlikely total isolated containment of the agent where it is no longer a threat.
-B. Unknown at this time is if “endemicity” will enter the language of the general population or become part of the temporary jargon of a specific group/ ideology. Likely endemicity will disappear because it is a meaningless justification for non action, while the previous terms (endemic, immune (reservoir) population) still carries a valid meaning.
-C. Given the context of usage “endemicity” is a redefinition of endemic to mean mild, dormant and no longer a threat. This is a historical continuation of what began as the misinformation =2= that natural immunity =2= =3= is superior too acquired (unnatural) immunity via vaccination *D↓. It is furthermore the misinformation definition of herd immunity to justify no masks and shelter in place, which in turn was replaced by "lockdown" (as in “imprison”) and adopted by the media and political use as a scare word (fear mongering). Endemicity is a further obfuscation that sounds objective and evidence based (sciencey), but is in reality a stealth recycle of debunked misinformation.
-*D. Be aware that there are numerous “research” articles that are misinformation, in many cases appearing reputable 10A↓. This is one of the dangers of viral misinformation, it very quickly overwhelms the capacity for critical evaluation of information. Firehosing infodemics become competing narratives when readers are unable to evaluate what sources and information to trust.
-4. Elimination: Elimination is when a biocalamity still exists in the world. but it has been eradicated from certain regions or countries, or slower. Fauci gives the example of polio*A↓, which has been eradicated from many countries. In parademic elimination of misinformation is part of Containment and Control 7↓.
-*A. Polio is not a good example of elimination. Polio is accelerating again where it was not contained and controlled, and reemerging in countries where is was controlled.
-5. Eradication: The last stage, eradication, is nearly impossible to reach. Fauci notes smallpox was the only infectious human disease that has ever been eradicated (that we know of), and he said outright that regarding Covid, “That’s not going to happen with this virus”.
-A. Parademic eliminated use of the term “eradication” years ago, preferring neutralization or driving to dormancy/ back to a reservoir. Besides being nearly impossible to archive enduring eradication, it is not always desirable to successfully accomplish a genocide/ extinction.
-B. Eradication efforts may eliminate a key species to an ecology, thereby cascading harm through other species, biomes and anthromes. Eradication decreases biodiversity, thus the breadth of genetic diversity needed for rebound of populations from biocalamities. Attempts at eradication can become a selective pressure of evolution that results in improved strains that are worse and have no treatments/cures. These anthropogenic biocalamities have resulted in vulnerable domesticated species, deforestation, and superbugs.
-6. The subject article uses a strictly medical view of a pandemic.
-A. Though the article implies this model was created by Fauci, it is one of various clinical heuristic descriptions of a pandemic that do not address the human factors of a pandemic =2= =3=. The model is of the propagation and ending of a pandemic, but provides nothing to communicate to the lay public, is open to misinterpretation and propaganda, provides no plan for health protection and mitigating economic losses, and does not address the political aspects. An objective model does not help for conditions of uncertainty, fear and panic. There are the very aspects that trolls and sensationalist media finds useful to go viral (infodemic) for personal gain.
-B. The experience of a pandemic is more akin to the grief cycle =2= =3=, the feelings people have when they are told they are infected with a potentially fatal disease (CV15 in the 2020-21 listibase), and need to be isolated from others. Clinical descriptions are fine for those who need to maintain emotional distance from the consequences of a pandemic and terminal patients, and possibly as a model to find ways to interrupt spread for Containment and Control, but are not a guide to what is felt and acted upon by people including those in health care.
-C. Humans have a blind spot to disasters that don’t involve people. If it is not nocuous – harmful to one’s self and the people we share an identity with – it is not a pandemic. That is an erroneous view. There are syndemics among flora, fauna, microbes that are harmful to human life. These diseases and contaminates cumulatively destroy raw material resources, food sources, potable water throughout the hydrosphere, lithosphere and atmosphere, eventually damaging the biosphere which includes the anthroposphere.
-D. It is likely that this model of the phases of a pandemic was an intentional heuristic by Dr Fauci 10↓ to make the concept easier to be widely communicated and be understood that progress has not been made to contain and control CV. A complete and accurate explanation would require years of prerequisite education, along with hours of explanation and correction of outdated understanding F↓. Dr Fauci understands that people would tune him out if he provided a detailed and comprehensive model. People don’t need to have complete and total medical and scientific knowledge to behave appropriately (that is survive) during a pandemic. By emphasizing that we are still, after three years, in the first phase of CV the model personal enough to be of self interest, with just enough insight for where we want the pandemic to go, indicating that people can determine the course of the pandemic, and most importantly not assigning blame for the pandemic.
-E. Dr Fauci has used this pandemic phase model as a vehicle to point out that individual and community rights, cross jurisdictions, interagency and international cooperation has not yet been achieved, and therefore CV is still in and will remain at Phase 1. If the acceleration of Phase 1 continues the human population will decelerate (drop, depopulate) to a point where the outcome is the human species being unable to rebound, rather than the more desirable deceleration of the disease causing agent and its fostering social conditions.
-*F. Readers have undoubtedly noticed that explaining the weaknesses of a purely epidemiological pandemic phase model quickly became complicated with the introduction of a few parademic considerations of pandemic phases.
-7. Containment and Control 4&6↑: 210103-CV08A, 201208-CV30B, 201205-CV03, 201128-CV18, 201123-CV04, 201018-CV28A, 201016-CV01, 201012-CV24, 201003-CV16, 200927-1A -B, 200906-1E -F, 200823-1A -C -D, 200804-CV30A, 200730-CV01B -CV26A, 200729-CV05, 200726-CV01D, 200710-CV01A, 200708-CV19.1, 200702-CV22C, 200630-CV05, 200628-1G, 200611-CV07, 200603-CV19, 200520-CV29B -C -C4), 200510-1A, 200505-CV30A, 200503-1A, 200501-CV13, 200427-CV01, 200422-CV29A, 200419-CV24C, 200418-CV6, 200417-CV21, 200412-CV22, 200410-CV22A, 200409-CV6 -CV7, 200405-1 -11A, 200405-CV9A, 200332-CV3, 200327-CV5, 200315-2.1B(2) -2.2 -D, <CONT 200308-200112-2¶>1 -A -B, -200112-2¶>5, Containment as Signal: Swine Flu Risk Miscommunication 2009, Comparing Covid-19 to Seasonal Flu; Transitioning from Containment to Mitigation; the Powers of Local Public Health Officials, Risk Communication about Containment – 2019 Novel Coronavirus, NIH Official Says Coronavirus on the Verge of Becoming Global Pandemic Unless Containment Becomes More Successful, China Says Coronavirus Can Spread Before Symptoms Show – Calling into Question US Containment Strategy, 200209-1E, <CONT 200202-200112-2¶>1 All, <CONT 200126-200112-2¶>1A. Start Thinking in Phases - Risk Communication Phases.
-8. Phases and Stages: 201129-CV18, 200925-CV15B, 200804-CV30.1C, 200730-CV03B, 200726-CV01D, 200719-1D, 200613-CV23, 200607-CV06A, 200530-CV18, 200520-CV29C, 200504-CV20B, 200503-1 All, 200426-1 All, 200426-CV15, 200420-CV29B, 200419-1.1 All, 200315-1.1A.
-A. Parademic has found that “stages and phases” don’t work well for biocalamities. Living systems are not consistent and orderly in progression, geographically and temporally. This lack of persistent steady patterns makes the use of a single model of transitions useless for Containment and Control. There are many ways of framing a biocalamity =2= =3= =4= =5= =6= =7= =8= etc., each suitable for the different problems of the associated parademic of people’s helpful and hindering (Non Medical Obstacles, NMO’s) behaviors. Global biocalamities continuously spiral in multiple cycles, with cross currents, up and down waves, ebbs and tides, reversing flows, geysers and whirlpools. Add parademic to this dynamic system and one can have senseless chaos and information vacuums.
-B. The issue with adherence to disaster stages being applied to slow worldwide existential disasters (biocalamities), is based on observation over the years, including my employment as a DoD pandemic planner in 2010-11. HHS, States, Counties, WHO, Nations had a variety of pandemic phase models that were incompatible, and all ignored human factors. In addition, the phase models from Disaster Management are designed for fast occurring disasters, limited in geography and time, and are largely related to severe weather, fire, physical trauma, or geological phenomena. Per disaster phase models and planning, if local Disaster Management is overwhelmed, more resources are brought in. Global biocalamities are all at once and everywhere overwhelming of resources. These concerns have been touched upon several times in the Parademic Listibase.
-9. Neologism: CV06 is the category of linguistics related to parademic in the 2020-21 Listibase, the specific links being 200723-CV06B, 200511-CV06. The word Covid itself is a multivocalic neologism, to include Chinese Virus”.
-A. Pre Covid Neologism links: <ADDED 190811-190630-2.2‡>3B, 190203-1, 181230-VCP-I-Italy, <ADDED 180923-180916-5>1D, 180902-1.1, 180819-17, 171119-3.2, 171022-9, <ADDED 171015-171001-2.1 et al>4D, <ADDED 170903-170813-6.1B, 170129-14-T.3.1, 170122-5, 161225-7, 160911-3.1, 160529-4.4. 160501-5.4 and prior on not available on the website.
-10. Fauci: This individual was mentioned frequently in the 2020-21 Listibase. Fauci =2=$ has become a neologism with meanings beyond the name of the person who became a celebrity.
-A. Note that the subject article is not from an academic journal but is a likely an out of context quote from science journalism, using Fauci’s reputation to gain readers (go viral). Science journalism is infamous for its inaccuracy.
-11. The last pertinent parademic (human factor/ complication) that is lacking in the clinical phases of pandemic is Creation. Creation would be the first CCC in Creation, Containment and Control ↑ 2 all, 3, 4, 6A, 7, 8A ↑. Creation is the origin/ beginnings and continued growth/ existence of a nocuous condition. In this case CV is one of a number of biocalamity syndemics that likely to be anthropogenic and perpetuated and sustained by the same fons et origo.
-A. For finding and then gaining acceptance of solutions to a syndemic biocrisis (parademic and biocalamity) one needs to comprehend (not necessarily fully understand) the genesis and evolution. Implementing solutions does not require comprehension of the wicked problems but does require acceptance and understanding the tasks that will lead to solutions.
