220328 Lockdown Moot

Social and Medical Controls and Containment Debate: Britain Got it Wrong on Covid: Long Lockdown Did More Harm than Good, Says Scientist. Jan, 2 22

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-1. Because of continued combinations of colliding factors of the biosphere intersecting with the anthroposphere there will be more pandemics of highly infectious diseases which are already in acceleration toward syndemics. These crashes will synergize into future biocrises that will be further exacerbated with continued debates of politicized medical opinions related to prevention, containment, and control of disease, including whether to advise to shelter in place, or otherwise   avoiding conditions of potential close proximity to organic and inorganic sources that are nocuous.

            -A. Total quarantine of large areas for long periods of time*^C will not contain a pandemic indefinitely, and in some conditions continued failure to contain and control will increase lethality as it bursts into different areas. Pathogens are not hindered by walls, political boundaries, magical wishing or armed borders. Even when controlled, microbes can go dormant in reservoirs until conditions are conducive again, and are difficult and potentially dangerous to eradicate from ecosystems.

            -B. Medical historians, epidemiologists, public health agencies are aware that severe disease and contamination outbreaks have socioeconomic consequences and, likewise, measures to regulate for prevention and slow the spread if prevention fails are likely to be draconian, as bad if not worse than pandemic impact on economies. These consequences include detrimental exploitation of those most vulnerable to being infected and who are likely already impoverished.  The general population and political decision makers, who have unwarranted expectations for medical miracles that have not been developed, much less been funded, to make acceptance of  absurd claims possible. These predictable consequences increase the chance that an outbreak will escape containment by creating a dilemma between fear of the risk of death from possible infection, or further financial ruin.

            -*C. The duration of contagions depends more on the behavior of hosts (humans) than the pathogenic agent*^D. With large populations there will be a significant minority that will agitate for “escape” through even the most heavily guarded cordon sanitaire =2=, creating more hot spots. The reasons for risking contamination of others are combinations of: Lack of food; Disbelief in science and “unnatural” technologies; Fear of being isolated with the infected, usually because of having previous experience with unequal treatment; Belief that only the ungodly others (xenophobias^$) will get sick, and that “they” are the disease source; Bribery and cronyism; Lack of understanding that they themselves are potential asymptomatic disease vectors; Believing that risk from normal activities is negligible; Suspicion that quarantine is for political suppression and theater, not public health needs; Fear mongering and moral panics, believing conspiracy theories, medical scams and junk science; Officials worried about loss of support by declaring restrictions, or that admitting there is a pandemic may cause (economic) panic; and Having to attend to interests that are more important than the health of communities.

            -*D. Quote: Another pandemic is inevitable, but whether it kills 10 million or 100 million will be determined by the world into which it emerges. Laura Spinney, Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World. ^5D↓.

-2. The subject article is one of many, so many that collectively these become a confusing mix of misinformation and informed opinions, complicating making the best decisions for future prevention and containment of outbreaks. It is doubtful that the full context of Mark Woolhouse’s (the “scientist” in the headline) position on CV initial response being “morally wrong and highly damaging”, was covered in this article. Additional obfuscation of what is actually intended by the book author comes from the article having the purpose of marketing the book, The Year the World Went Mad: A Scientific Memoir =2= =3= =4=. With economic interest in sharpening 181223-1 a topic in a way that would attract readers (money) to a created controversy that can’t be answered by journalism. Nuances about propagation, containment and control of a disease previously unknown to medical science (SAR-COV-2), balancing the needs to reassure the public, while giving warning of the threat, could not possibly be covered is such a short space of a news article, and one should compare and contrast with other reports.

-3. The sound bites and statements are only valid in a specific context – “We were mesmerised*^A by the once in a century*^B scale of the emergency and succeeded only in making a crisis even worse. In short, we panicked. This was an epidemic crying out for a precision public health approach and it got the opposite” – and are not valid outside the narrow time and geographic context of the book. The book covers the initial response to the CV pandemic in what is barely still the United Kingdom. This was published before the Swedish non lockdown ⁸↓ policy proved to be ineffective (FUBAR), and current Natural vs Vaccine Immunity data indicates there is greater risk from the actual virus. These inceptive errors described in the book set the stage for the cascade of the following mistakes made by decision makers.

            -*A. This is how the British spell “mesmerized”. This is not an error and “sic” is not appropriate as it is spelled correctly, but not the spelling used in American English. This is one of the issues of global biocalamities. Differences in spelling, grammar, syntax, gestures, cultural referents and norms, pronunciation, definitions (technical and popular) can all lead to fatal miscommunications. The damage is aggravated by intentional misinformation that is intended to cause harm, spreading widely through (un)witting sources that find it credible and supporting their agendas that are pernicious to others.

            -*B. This may be a misquote that the last pandemic of this scale was 100 years ago occurring during a time the world’s public health contributing factors are not directly comparable to the contemporary technosphere, population density and political milieus. However, the spectrum of human pro and anti social behaviors in the context of pandemics have been consistent in the historical and archaeological =2= =3= =4= =5= 200728-CV22C, records.

-4. The question remains if mass quarantines of large areas are effective for the short term as a means to flatten the curve [Graphic ^5A↓] remain unanswered. Ill informed and willfully ignorant policies, the mishandling and suppression of data, and the infodemic during CV precluded collection from a natural experiment that could provide a definitive answer. There were simply too many uncontrolled factors of when social distancing measures were enacted (likely most were too late), were removed (likely too soon), along with unknowns about how many followed the protocols all the time. Historical and geographic information can provide useful analogues, but the circumstances of today are so different from conditions in the past and between different areas – speed of travel, access to and quality of medical care, demographics and population density, communication of the real and imaginary, education, wealth, government, accumulated history – of pandemics that provide direct correspondence for analysis was not even attempted. Trying to do so is comparing Granny Smith apples to Fuji apples to [Navel] Oranges with [Blood] Oranges. They are alike and different, are used in a wide variety of different ways, and have overlaps. This is complicated further that people love/ hate, are disgusted by/ don’t care about fruits, and may not even know what fruit is – or worse, think they do.

-5. To make large area quarantines more (but not absolutely) effective to endure as long as the pandemic is still circulating, there are a number of issues that can be addressed: Evidence informed policies and official statements; Make it possible to shelter in place with food, electricity, heat/ cold, water, accurate information; Have uniform rules for infractions and the means to enforce; More generous sick leave so the sick don’t feel the dilemma of dying from infection or financial ruin, and insurance for business so they don’t collapse when they close for community safety; Develop medical surge capacity and protection before need, including how to fund and maintain staff during 24/7 operations for the full spectrum of medical and health, not just the crisis*^B; Practice at learning in other than in person classrooms, and education in critical thinking, science literacy and evaluating competing narratives. Recognize that in the circumstances of the current world that a butterfly dying in China =2= can result in a mass fatality event in the Caribbean and the rest of the world.

            -A. Most importantly don’t use the word “lockdown”. Lockdowns⁶↓ *^C in popular parlance means control of prison riots, closure or perimeters to prevent criminals from escaping – though there is some linguistic variation such as lockdown the outside hatches on a submarine or to lockdown the price. In the context of societies that are in conditions of uncertainty, facing a crisis in comprehending what is happening, there are naturally concerns about the intentions of government; When self and group identity are in part defined by the antonym of lockdown - “freedom”. Fear of losing freedom and money lead to an unfortunate tendency of repeatedly reopening ⁴↑ ⁷↓ – the benign sounding =2= counterpoint for lockdown – before CV was contained resulting in new outbreaks; Understanding that science does not offer certainties, and; A disease that appears to infect (kill) randomly despite protective measures, leaving many survivors with long term chronic conditions; the idea of being placed in lockdown does not engender confidence.

            -B. The topic of maintaining health services for health maintenance, chronic and developing conditions =2= =3= =4= during a long term global pandemic is a separate issue that overlaps with parademic, but is more about health system management to have capacity during surges. There were notably changes to the whole medical system during CV, or at least official recognition of gaps that were ignored despite the known risk that the system would be overwhelmed and break during a pandemic =2=, 201027-CV28. Online medicine is one of the trends that was accelerated by CV, but at the cost that the change came faster than society could consider and adjust for consequences of creating more distance between health care providers and patients, and creating a larger need for at home diagnostic devices.

            -*C. When the parademic website changed format from a listibase to synthesis the curator neglected to explain the reference numbers, ^{6 and 7}↓ being examples. The numbers are the Year, Month, Day (YYMMDD) recorded, and the topical stub number. The reader hotlinks to the posted notes and then scrolls down to the stub number. Then one reads though the stub to find each use of the keyword in listed headlines, “lockdown” and “reopen” in this case. However, do not read just the link headlines and comments with the keyword, the whole stub provides the context of meaning, and not all information on a topic is covered by a single key word.

            -D. For the topic of lockdown – Protests, Riots, Counter demonstrations, Rally, Anti mask, Antivax, Freedom convoys, Refusing to close business, Trump supporters, Shelter in Place, Shelter at Home, Quarantine, Social Distancing, Extremism, Psychology, Mental Health, Infodemic, Social Media and Conspiracy Theory may all provide additional and context information. Readers are encouraged to do their own research on topics.

            -E. Quote: In a future flu pandemic, health authorities will introduce containment measures such as quarantine, school closures and prohibitions on mass gatherings. These will be for our collective benefit, so how do we ensure that everyone complies? How, too, do we persuade people to get vaccinated each year, given that herd immunity is the best protection we have against a flu pandemic? Experience has shown that people have a low tolerance for mandatory health measures, and that such measures are most effective when they are voluntary, when they respect and depend on individual choice, and when they avoid the use of police powers =2=. ^1D↑, 200419-CV24B.

-6. Lockdown: Dec 201231-CV06 -CV31, CV22B, 201230-CV22.1A -CV33A, 201228-CV15A -CV21A -CV26B -C,  201225-CV16 201224-CV23, 201222-CV21B -CV25A, 201221-CV23, 201220-CV16A -CV25B, 201219-CV33.1 -A, 201218-CV03A -CV24, 201216-CV15 -CV25, 201215-CV12 -A -CV29A, 201214-CV29A -C, 201212-CV06, 201211-CV16, 201207-CV31A, 201204-CV23.1A,  201202-CV25.1.

            -A. Nov 201129-1A, 201129-CV21, 201127-CV01 -CV21, 201126-CV33A, 201125-CV17, 201118-CV05, 201116-CV25B, 201115-CV28, 201114-CV28, 201113-CV29 -B, 201112-CV29, 201111-CV04A -B -CV04A, -CV18.1 -A, 201109-CV04 -B, 201104-CV24 -CV26A, 201103-CV20, 201101-CV29.

            -B. Oct 201031-CV04, 201028-CV12, 201027-CV01A -CV29, 201017-CV29, 201015-CV27A, 201014-CV01C, 201013-CV01, 201012-CV20A, 201011-CV16A, 201009-CV09, 201008-CV23 -CV26, 201006-CV16, 201004-CV24A, 201003-CV31.1, 201001-CV30B.

            -C. Sep 200929-CV05, 200927-1 all ^7A↓, 200927-CV16 all, 200923-CV29A, 200921-CV05, 200920-CV31, 200919-CV17, 200913-CV29 -A, 200911-CV25, 200910-CV33, 200909-CV01 -CV12 -CV30, 200906-CV03A.3)a) -CV12 -A, 200904-CV14, 200902-CV19 -CV30.1 -A.

            -D. Aug 200831-CV05, 200830-CV26, 200829-CV01 -C, 200828-CV05A, 200827-CV27 ^7A↓, 200824-CV16.1 -CV22A -CV24A, 200823-CV09 -A, 200822-CV25B, 200821-CV22B, 200819-CV01 -CV12B -CV22 -A, 200814-CV12, 200813-CV05.2 -CV28A, 200812-CV23, 200810-CV01A, 200808-CV26, 200807-CV15 -CV20, 200806-CV31, 200804-CV30,

            -E. Jul 200731-CV06 -CV23.1 -CV33, 200730-CV09A -CV18, 200728-CV22A, 200726-CV04 -A, 200725-CV17, 200724-CV31, 200723-CV06 -A -C, 200722-CV15 -CV16 -CV25, 200720-CV05C -CV22.1, 200718-CV31, 200716-CV28 -CV29, 200715-CV07, 200714-CV23.2, 200713-CV03 -CV04, 200712-1B, 200712-CV16, 200711-CV03B -CV20, 200708-CV01 -CV16, 200707-CV29, 200706-CV01 -CV01.1A, 200704-CV12, 200703-CV04 -CV27 -CV29, 200701-CV04 -CV08.

            -F. Jun 200630-CV05.1, 200629-CV23.1 -CV31, 200627-CV16 -A -B, 200626-CV05, 200624-CV01 -CV29 -A -CV30,  200622-CV07 -CV09 -CV16 -CV31, 200621-CV23, 200620-CV29 -C -CV32, 200619-CV03, 200615-CV16.1A -CV24 -CV33A, 200614-CV16 ^7B↓ -CV33C, 200613-CV05 -CV20 -A, 200612-CV17 -CV24.1 -A, 200610-CV31, 200609-CV09 -CV09.1 -CV16, 200607-CV06 ^7B↓, 200606-CV23 -A, 200605-CV11, 200604-CV23B, 200602-CV02, 200601-CV23A.

            -G. May 200531-CV23A, 200530-CV05B, 200529-CV21 ^7B↓, 200528-CV03.2 ^7B↓ -CV33, 200526-CV01 -.1 -CV15.1, 200525-CV16 -CV27 -CV31, 200524-CV06.1 -CV24 -CV28 -B -CV31, 200523-CV10, 200522-CV01 -CV04A, 200520-CV29A -B, 200519-CV13.1 -CV25 -CV27.2, 200518-CV01 -CV07 -CV26 -CV29, 200517-CV12A -CV29 -CV33, 200515-CV23 ^7B↓ -.1, 200514-CV23.1, 200513-CV19 -CV25 -CV27.1 -CV33, 200511-CV01 ^7B↓ -CV15, 200510-CV03, 200509-CV18, 200508-CV01.1 -CV06 -A -D1) -2 -CV12E -CV25 -CV29, 200507-CV01 ^7B↓ -CV22, 200506-CV04, 200505-CV27 -CV32, 200504-CV08A, 200503-CV21 -CV26 -.1 CV32.1, 200502-CV04, 200501-CV08.1A -CV24.1 -A -CV29.1.

            -H. Apr 200429-CV23.1 -CV26 -CV29, 200426-CV27A, 200425-CV04 -CV12 -CV15, 200424-CV7A -CV16C, 200423-CV7A -CV22 -A -E, 200422-CV20 ^7B↓ -CV22 -CV24, 200420-CV1 -CV4A this the deflection point when Shelter in Place was being replaced by Lockdown, though Zipf’s Law =2= =3= (shorter terms adopted for longer ones) also applies  -CV23 -29B, 200419-CV4 ^6B↓ -CV22 -CV24B -CV27, 200418-CV4A -CV6B -CV10C -CV17 -CV23 -CV24, 200417-CV4A, 200416-CV1A -CV4C -CV15A -CV28A, 200414-CV3, 200413-CV1, 200412-CV16, 200411-CV14, 200409-CV13, 200407-CV1 -CV9A -CV24, 200405-6C -D, 200405-CV26, 200403-CV6, 200402-CV5 -CV9.

            -I. Mar 200331-CV24A, 200329-3.1^6G↓D -3.2 -3.3 -A -B -3.9A -4 -8B , <CONT 200329-200112-2¶>2, 200329-CV5, 200327-CV8, 200325-CV6, 200322-Do the 5 -1B -H -4D, <CONT 200322-200112-2¶>1 -C -*B -200112-2¶>3. -2.1Chart(4), <CONT 200315-200112-2¶>2B -D -200112-2¶>3, <CONT 200308-200112-2¶>1A -200112-2¶>2B -200112-2¶>7, <CONT 200301-200112-2¶>6C -200112-2¶>7. History 200313 US declares CV Emergency. 200311 WHO declares CV Pandemic.

            -J. Feb <CONT 200223-200112-2¶>1-O, 200209-1D, <CONT 200202-200112-2¶>1A -200112-2¶>1D. History 200117 first reported case of CV in the U.S.

            -K. Jan <CONT 200126-200112-2¶>1B‡1.

            -L. Note that the above is broken into months while ⁷↓ is quarterly, using “. |” to separate months. No reason for this, but at first glance gives the appearance of an equal number of stubs for each topic. This is an illusion both because of different presentation of the reference stubs opening up the possibility of data manipulation =2= 201208-CV33, and that the topics covered have a variety of different contexts giving each different meanings. Though the listibase data is not comprehensive nor definitive, there is the suggestion of a pattern between anti lockdown (mask) protests followed by reopening⁷↓, followed by a surge is hospitalization and cases of CV, followed by another lockdown, and then repeating. It is also useful to format data in different ways comparing the same forms and contrasting with different form, to reveal patterns that may otherwise not be noticed. In the lockdown case it indicates that anti lockdown was initially astroturf (not grassroots), similar to Ebolaphobia in Oct 2014 just prior to elections.

-7. Reopen: 4^th Quarter. 210102-CV01B, 210101-CV27, 201225-CV27, 201222-CV25B, 201210-CV27.| 201126-CV29B, 201123-CV29, 201120-CV23B, 201117-CV27, 201115-CV28B, 201111-CV26, 201107-CV18A, 201106-CV27A, 201103-CV27. | 201025-CV27, 201022-CV15A, 201021-CV27 -CV29, 201020-CV08 -CV27A, 201016-CV27, 201012-CV27, 201009-CV08 -CV27, 201004-CV09, 201001-CV27.

            -A. 3^rd Quarter 200927-1 all ^6C↑, 200924-CV27, 200917-CV15A, 200910-CV27A, 200909-CV08.1, 200907-CV08, 200906-CV12 -CV15.1A, 200903-CV27 -B -C. | 200831-CV27 -A, 200830-CV08, 200829-CV29, 200828-CV16, 200827-CV27 ^6D↑, 200821-CV08, 200820-CV27, 200816-CV17 -CV27, 200815-CV08.1, 200813-CV01A -CV23, 200811-CV07 all, 200810-CV04A, 200809-CV27 -A, 200805-CV27 -A, 200803-CV01A -CV27. | 200729-CV16 -CV27, 200728-CV03.1F, 200727-CV08 -A -CV27, 200724-CV27.2 -A, 200722-CV03A, 200721-CV01A -B, 200720-CV27 -A, 200718-CV29, 200717-CV03B -CV24 -CV27, 200713-CV01.1 -CV02 -CV27 -CV27.1, -CV27.2, 200712-CV29, 200711-CV17A, 200710-CV25 -CV27.1, 200709-CV31, 200708-CV05 -CV08 -CV27 all, 200706-CV04 -CV27 -A, 200705-CV16 -CV27 -A, 200704-CV33, 200703-CV18 -CV23, 200702-CV27 -CV30, 200701-CV08 -CV16.

            -B. 2^nd Quarter. 200629-CV27 -.1, 200628-CV22E, 200627-CV06B -CV06.1 -CV16B -F -CV20, 200626-CV-1B -CV02 -A -C -D -CV08.1C -CV27 -CV28, 200624-CV27 -CV29, 200623-CV05A -CV17, 200621-CV01 -CV23A -CV27, 200620-CV18A, 200616-CV01, 200615-CV27, 200614-CV16 ^6Flain ↑ -.1, 200613-CV20A -CV27 -CV32, 200612-CV03C, 200608-CV08 -CV09 -CV27, 200607-CV06 ^6F↑ -B, 200605-CV05 -A -CV18 -CV20, 200601-CV08. |  200530-CV33, 200529-CV21 ^6G↑ -CV25.1, 200526-CV22, 200528-CV03.2 ^6G↑, 200527-CV27, 200526-CV29.1, 200525-CV31, 200524-1C, 200522-CV29, 200520-CV08 -CV31 -.1, 200519-CV27 -.2 -CV28A, 200518-CV03.1A -CV05 -CV27, 200517-CV06A -CV17.1 -CV29 -CV30.1, 200515-CV23 ^6G↑ -CV27, 200514-CV33.1 -B, 200513-CV01, 200512-CV19.1A -CV29 -CV33, tline200511-CV01 ^6G↑, 200509-CV25 -CV29 -A, 200508-CV06C -CV12E -CV23.1 -CV27 -CV30A, 200507-CV01 ^6G↑ -CV22, 200506-CV05 -CV30B, 200505-CV04 -B -CV29, 200501-CV24.1 -CV29.1. | 200429-CV12 -CV21 -CV29, 200428-CV05 all -CV24, 200426-CV24A -CV28, 200425-CV22, 200424-CV7B, 200423-CV2 -CV22B, 200422-CV20 ^6H↑ -CV28, 200421-CV6 -CV18A, 200420-CV4 -CV5C -CV7, 200419-CV4 ^6G↑ -CV24A, 200418-CV3C -CV6 -CV10A -CV11 -CV19, 200417-CV17A -CV28, 200416-CV13 -CV26, 200415-CV23B.

            -C. 1^st Quarter. 200329-3.1^7I↑ -3.7 -4A^CV27 -8A, <CONT 200322-200112-2¶>2B,  <CONT 200308-200112-2¶>7 Schools. | <CONT 200223-200112-2¶>1E -O, <CONT 200202-200112-2¶>1B. | No other “reopen”.

            -D.  The stub topic category CV27 Learning, was the most frequent topic associated with the keyword “reopen”. This may reflect media recognizing that school issues have intense local and national interest, safety of children (teachers and school board meetings [Cartoon =2=]), the impact of time loss from schools, and antivax. However, the frequency may be an artefact (ideofact) from the curator of Parademic having been a school teacher, making it likely I would note such articles. Either way this indicates that there may have been a trend toward the astroturfing of animosity at later school board meeting =2= about masks, vaccination, online instruction, closures/ reopening, and what is taught at schools. It is also interesting to note where both Reopen and Lockdown appear in the same stub.

-8. Sweden ³↑: 210103-CV04C, 201214-CV29 ⁶↑ All, 201119-CV26A, 201112-CV29 All,  201111-CV18.1D,  201027-CV29, 201014-CV01B, 201009-CV29, Sweden's Fauci: No Disease in History Has Been Eradicated with Herd Immunity – Covid Is No Different, 201009-CV29,  200923-CV29 -A, 200906-CV03A3)a), 200824-CV17, 200813-CV05.2 -A, 200724-CV30, 200722-CV15, 200708-CV01, 200620-CV29 -A, 200527-CV29B, 200516-CV27, 200508-CV06D1), 200502-CV04, 200418-CV4A, 200405-CV11A.